Thursday, April 30, 2009

Consumers Wary of Trying New Brands, Are Businesses?

Consumers around the world are more wary of trying new consumer goods products in the midst of a recession, say researchers at Ipsos Marketing. The global survey of consumer attitudes and behavior in 18 countries suggests that more than half of global consumers shy away from new grocery, personal and household products during an economic downturn.

One wonders if that same pattern extends to the business market as well, and explains the lower churn some service providers are reporting. There is anecdotal evidence that business customers, for example, are showing more hesitation about switching communications service providers, even as more seem to be receptive to pitches about "saving money."

Indeed, it would seem that many consumer attitudes also have a parallel in the small and medium-sized business markets. Some 70 percent of global consumers say they are not likely to try a new beauty product, for example. So new products and unfamiliar brands face an uphill battle. That might apply to hosted communications services or even, in some cases, uptake of new IP-based phone systems.

On the other hand, some 80 percent of global consumers say they are "very" or "somewhat likely" to switch from their usual brands to lower-priced brands or brands that are on sale during an economic downturn. That suggests a heightened sense of insecurity is likely in the background whenver a new provider or offer is weighed.

Communications is more a relationship than a one-off purchase, so consumer trends do not translate neatly to the world of communication services. Some 72 percent of consumers say they would switch to "store" or "generic" brands. The analogy would be switching from a recognizable communications "brand" and a company "they haven't heard of before."

“It is discouraging to think that new product introductions and carefully planned brand strategies might suffer from bad timing,” says Sunando Das, Ipsos Marketing VP. But one bit of advice clearly does apply to most communication services.

"Marketers can, and must, focus is value," says Das. Value obviously is a higher priority for consumers during an economic downturn. That doesn't necessarily mean pricing has to change, he says.

But consumer perceptions about benefits compared to cost should be explored to make sure consumers think there is a fair trade-off, he says.

http://www.ipsos-na.com/news/pressrelease.cfm?id=4337&wt.mc_id=1110011&ce=garykim.denver@gmail.com&link=4337&top=


Does it Matter Whether VoIP is Dead or Not?

It's typically pretty easy to get a robust conversation going about whether VoIP is dead or not, and what each of us means when taking a position either way. Interesting viewpoints exist on either "side" of the debate, relevant for technology enthusiasts and developers but rarely of interest to the mass market that will use the technology.

One might as well say, in advance, that now that Twitter seems to be reaching some sort of inflection point or critical mass, lead technology adopters and developers will move onto the next big thing. Technology rarely is interesting to technologists when it is simply "there."

I remember the same thoughts expressed about session initiation protocol. The disenchantment isn't worrisome. Technology enthusiasts simply have different values than mainstream users, who just want value they understand, easy to use, acquire and support, at fair prices.

Technologists love technology. Most people don't care, so most large, successful businesses are built in ways that hide technology from end users. It makes about as much sense to argue about whether "electricity is dead, or not," as it does to worry about whether VoIP is, or is not.

Technology always is most successful, and most ubiquitous, when it is just furniture. VoIP isn't yet "just furniture." But that is where we inevitably will go.

58% Local Search Growth in 2008

Local search, using online search tools to find local businesses, products, or services, grew 58 percent in 2008, reaching an annual total of 15.7 billion searches, says comScore. By comparison, overall core U.S. Web searches grew 21 percent year-over-year, nearing 137 billion searches by the end of 2008.

About 75 percent of the top 100 keywords searched on Internet Yellow Pages sites were non-branded, indicating that a majority of consumers have not decided on a specific company or product brand when they begin their search, comScore says.

Nearly half (45 percent) of Internet Yellow Pages and local online directory searchers made an online purchase in the fourth quarter of 2008.

One wonders whether Google Maps and mobile Web access have at least something to do with the growth. Local search makes much more sense when one is out of the home or office, and Google Maps, with or without global positioning satellite support, makes it really easy to search for something one needs, where one is at the moment.

The other angle is that small businesses, which operate locally, now are investing more heavily in Web sites, which would allow them to be found more easily.


Satellite Broadband: What Will Reviewers Do?

There is little doubt but that satellite broadband providers will try to secure broadband stimulus funds to subsidize the cost of customer premises equipment, a move that Hughes Network Systems SVP Mike Cook believes could increase its subscriber base by an order of magnitude.


WildBlue presumably also would see customer lift if such subsidies were possible.

There also is some speculation that funds could be sought for new satellite construction to offer customers much-higher access speeds.

Anything is possible, of course. But if I were reviewing grant applications, I'd be looking for projects that get broadband services to people as fast as possible, to as many people as possible, creating new jobs now, are sustainable after grant funds are gone and can get services to the most-isolated locations, across the United States, now.

Anything is possible. But looking at funding for new satellites that might not be launched for years, and consuming lots of program cash, compared to spending lots less and serving lots of rural customers now, would rank a lot higher.

Politically, I'd also (for better or worse) be looking in advance for evidence to justify why I made my decision. Enabling new broadband services to rural residents in all 50 states, within months, is safer than defending a relatively signficant capital investment that won't result in new services for some years.

Also, as a reviewer, I would be looking to get the biggest bang for the buck, spreading the money as widely as possible. On that score, subsidizing CPE would seem a more defensible choice that building satellites.

Social Gaming Grows

The number of people playing social games is expected to surge to 250 million in 2009, from 50 million in 2008, by some industry estimates. And there is a shift in the way games are used. Connecting with friends, and doing things with friends or other people, now is becoming more important.

It's but one more example of how social aspects of gaming, media and content consumption are growing.

Video, Social Networking Top Online Growth

Online users have significantly shifted their interests over the past five years, say researchers at Nielsen Online. Where  portal-oriented browsing sites, such as shopping directories, guides and Internet tools or Web services used to be the top categories for user engagement, today the active Internet user tends to prefer sites that contain more specialized content.

There is a growing shift to more-fragmented usage, in other words, as well as more use of video and social sites. Video and social networking sites are the fastest-growing sites in 2009.

The number of American users frequenting online video destinations has climbed 339 percent since 2003, for example.  Time spent on video sites has shot up almost 2,000 percent over the same period.

In the last year alone, unique viewers of online video grew 10 percent, the number of streams grew 41 percent, the streams per user grew 27 percent and the total minutes engaged with online video grew 71 percent.

There also are 87 percent more online social media users now than in 2003, with 883 percent more time devoted to those sites.
• In the last year alone, time spent on social networking sites has surged 73 percent.

In February, social network usage exceeded Web-based e-mail usage for the first time.

1 of Every 7 Minutes of Media Use are on Mobile

More than a third of high-use smart phone users are taking action on mobile advertisements, according to AOL Platform-A and Interpublic Group of Companies UM. About 53 percent of smart phone users are clicking on advertisements.

Some 35 percent are requesting more information or a coupon, while 24 percent are making purchases, a new study sponsored by AOL and UM indicates.

The study shows 82 percent of smart phones get used at work while 81 percent are used while people are shopping. Currently, nearly one of every seven minutes of media consumption takes place on a mobile device, and six of every 10 consumers expect their mobile internet usage to increase significantly over the next two years, AOL and UM say.

And though there was a time when mobile Web access might once have been an area where U.S. consumers trailed other consumers, that is no longer the case. In fact, mobile Web access is so widespread that the use cases are morphing.

"Now mobile is less about 'wireless online' and more about being a highly personal, customized medium," says Graeme Hutton, UM director. So the big question is how smart phone applications evolve in the direction of  answering unmet needs. The mobile Web is not simply a mobile version of the PC-accessed Web, in other words. It might be evolving in the direction of becoming a medium in its own right.

Wednesday, April 29, 2009

Mobile Twitter Passes ESPN, Facebook, and Google

Subscribers to paid community Predicto are different from users of the free mobile Twitter community, says Nielsen Mobile. Twitter has a dominant presence among young and male oriented audiences while Predicto attracts a more mainstream following with a broader penetration, particularly with the female and older demographics.

Twitter is the leading free mobile community, and Predicto is the largest paid mobile community, Nielsen says.

In the fourth quarter of 2008, Twitter amassed approximately 812,000 unique text messaging users, while Predicto Mobile interacted with over 2,303,000 unique users, according to Nielsen Mobile.

Some other key differences in the user breakdown of the two leading mobile communities include 57/43 percent male/female ratio for Twitter versus 45/55 percent for Predicto.

Some 49 percent of Twitter users are in the 35-plus age group versus 68 percent with Predicto. About16 percent of Twitter users earn $100,000 or more compared to 20 percent for Predicto.

During the fourth quarter of 2008, Twitter overtook other free mobile services including ESPN, Facebook, and Google. At the same time, Predicto remains the undisputed leader in the premium mobile space, further distancing itself from NBC in second place, Nielsen Mobile says.


Bye Bye RGU, Hello PSU, Says Time Warner Cable

New markets require new terminology. When the competitive local exchange business was roaring in the late 1990s and early 2000s, companies reported using a metric known as "voice grade equivalents," a metric they deemed a better measure of growth than "lines."

Likewise, cable operators began reporting "revenue generating units" when they ramped up new services ranging from voice and broadband Internet access to various types of digital video products.

So Time Warner Cable is using a new subscriber metric its calls a "primary service unit, which the company defines as the total of all discrete video, high speed data and voice subscriptions. A single household buying voice, broadband and video would repreent three PSUs.

The older RGU numbers are similar, but have included digital video or VOD services purchased in addition to basic cable. The new PSU metric presumably is intended to better reflect discrete numbers of voice, broadband and video accounts sold.

In the first quarter, for example, Time Warner Cable reported 26 million PSUs, but 34.8 million RGUs.

http://files.shareholder.com/downloads/TWC/629033522x0x290734/4e925b06-841e-47d8-bcc6-bc8f52f1973a/290734.pdf

Time Warner Cable Reports: Still No Evidence of Cord Cutting

Time Warner Cable first quarter results are in, and, so far, nothing unexpected seems to be happening, relative to financial or subscriber behavior attributable directly to the economy. Comcast reports tomorrow, so we should be in fairly good shape as far as analyzing whether reported or claimed consumer intent to drop video subscriptions, or even scale them back dramatically, is happening.

So far, with results in from Time Warner, AT&T and Verizon, we can note that, despite what people might say, or what observers might believe, the business remains quite stable. We'll have to wait for several other reports from major satellite and wireless providers to assess what is happening with wireless, and to flesh out the video numbers.

But, so far, nothing unusual can be seen. Share shifts continue. Consumers might be scaling back on premium services or discretionary purchases such as video on demand. All of that is typical for a recession. But there is so far no serious evidence of any significant shift in behavior, compared to past recessions, in the video or fixed broadband segments.

Wireless might be a different matter, as the two major providers one suspects will show market share pressure have not yet reported. The issue is whether total postpaid wireless subscriptions have declined. Some shift to prepaid is expected, which potentially could lower average revenue per user, if new data service revenue does not grow faster than the slippage to prepaid voice. So far, data revenue growth remains brisk, so ARPU has not fallen. In fact, it has grown at AT&T and Verizon Communications, the two major wireless companies to report so far.

Time Warner Cable revenues for the first quarter of 2009 increased five percent ($204 million) over the same quarter of 2008,  to $4.4 billion. Subscription revenues grew six percent ($256 million) to $4.2 billion. Video revenues rose two percent ($64 million) to $2.7 billion, driven by video price increases and continued growth in digital video subscriptions partially offset by a year-over-year decrease in basic video subscribers and premium channel and transactional video-on-demand revenues.

High-speed data revenues increased 11 percent ($107 million) to $1.1 billion while voice revenues were up 23 percent ($85 million) to $451 million. Advertising revenues declined 26 percent ($52 million) to $145 million.

Customer relationships were 14.7 million as of March 31, 2009. Primary service units, which represent the total of all video, high-speed data and voice subscribers, reached 26 million with net additions of 435,000 during the first quarter of 2009.

Revenue generating units (“RGUs”) totaled 34.8 million – reflecting net additions of 556,000 during the first quarter of 2009.
Triple Play subscribers exceeded 3.2 million (or 22 percent of total customer relationships), benefiting from 146,000 net additions during the first quarter of 2009.

Video penetration now is at 48.7 percent while high-speed data penetration of the customer base now is at 33.5 percent. Phone penetration is at 15.1 percent of the customer base.

Some 55.2 percent of households buy a bundle of some sort. A third of households buy a triple-play package, while about 22.1 percent of those bundle buyers take a double play.

Perhaps the most shocking number for anybody who has followed the cable industry over the past couple of decades is customer penetration of homes passed. Time Warner Cable today sells a service to 54.5 percent of locations the network passes. But looking just at multi-channel video, Time Warner sells video services to just 48.7 percent of households passed, down sharply from the nearly-70-percent levels operators used to have in many markets.

Industrywide, cable penetration now is at 51 percent, according to the National Cable & Telecommunications Association.

Mobile and Social Network Ad Revenue Hot Through 2014


Mobile and social networks are the hottest areas of online advertising growth, say researchers at Forrester Research.
The cumulative average growth rate for the six-year period from 2008 through 2014 is 17 percent, Forrester Researchers say. However, the growth rate for mobile advertising is much higher, at 27 percent per year, and the growth rate for social network advertising is 34 percent per year.
Click the image for a larger view.






Advertising Down, Internet Advertising Up, ZenithOptimedia Says

Consumers are saving money by spending more time at home, so media consumption is increasing, particularly of television and the Internet, says ZenithOptimedia Group. That might explain what appears to be consistent performance by providers of multi-channel video entertainment, though there are share shifts occurring.

And though overall advertising will decline globally in 2009 by about seven percent, Internet ad spending should increase 8.6 percent in 2009, down from 20.9 percent in 2008, ZenithOptimedia Group says.

Most of this growth will come from search advertising. The firm predicts U.S.search advertising to grow nine percent in 2009, while classified grows just 1.8 percent and traditional display shrinks 1.8 percent.

Internet video and rich media advertising is growing about 30 percent annually, while Internet radio advertising is growing 29.7 percent. Podcast ad revenue is growing 11.9 percent, but each from relatively small bases. Internet video, Internet radio and podcasting revenues represent about 12 percent of overall U.S. Internet ad spending.

Internet ad growth is predicted to grow at 11.3 percent in 2010 and 15.3 percent in 2011, ZenithOptimedia Group says. The Internet's share of total advertising will grow to 14.6 percent in 2011, up from 10.4 percent in 2008.

http://www.zenithoptimedia.com/about/news/pdf/Adspend%20forecasts%20April%202009.pdf



Triple Play Future for Web Business Models

Where are Web business models headed? Towards a mix of advertising, subscription and transaction models, says Bernard Lunn ReadWriteWeb COO. There are some obvious implications.

Advertisers will adopt a barbell approach: where they will buy media on a traditional cost-per-thousand basis for branding and cost-per-action for direct-revenue generation, he says. Cost per click will still be dominated by Google but will become less dominant as CPA gains traction, Lunn argues.

The big issue, though, is that Google so dominates the CPC business that it makes tough any other third party CPA model. Lunn thinks ad-suported media will be a mix of CPM and CPA models, but must deal with CPC to achieve a workable balance.

Content increasingly will be dominated by user-generated sources, if only because the amount of professionally-created content is not going to keep up with the amount of UGC. To make UGC consumable, more human editing will be required.

http://www.readwriteweb.com/archives/mapping_the_current_web_transition.php

Small Business Sees Web Site Investments as "Advertising"

In 2008 small and medium-sized organizations spent $6.7 billion on online advertising and will increase that spending relatively slowly between now and 2013, according to researchers at Borrell Associates.

By 2013, SMEs will be spending about $7.4 billion on online advertising, representing relatively slowish growth of nine percent over a five-year period, an annual growth rate of a bit more than 1.5 percent annually.

That might surprise you, if only because the rate of growth is slow slow it might be considered "flat." But Borrell suggests something else is happening. SME spending on Web sites will grow about eight percent a year.

You might not consider Web site spending as advertising, but Borrell Associates says this is precisely how SMEs think about the matter. It isn't so much a shift of advertising from traditional methods, including telephone directory listings and direct mail, to the Internet. It is that small businesses see their own Web sites as a form of "advertising," perhaps a functional substitute.

Consider this a sort of shift to "earned media" (awareness gained through promotional efforts rather than paid advertising). The other angle is that small businesses rightly see their Web efforts as partly a direct sales channel, partly direct marketing and partly a substitute for other sales activities such as printing and distributing flyers, postcards and other direct marketing messages.


Tuesday, April 28, 2009

60% of Twitter Users Do Not Return the Following Month

Twitter’s unique audience exploded over 100 percent in March 2009, meaning it likely has reached an inflection point of some sort. But there are issues: Currently, more than 60 percent of Twitter users fail to return the following month, says David Martin, Nielsen Online VP.

That means Twitter’s audience retention rate, the percentage of a given month’s users who come back the following month, is about 40 percent.

To put that in perspective, it is roughly the equivalent of turning over 100 percent of the user base every three months. Such a churn rate is unsustainable.

"It is clear that a retention rate of 40 percent will limit a site’s growth to about a 10 percent reach figure," says Martin. "A high retention rate doesn’t guarantee a massive audience, but it is a prerequisite."

There simply aren’t enough new users to make up for defecting ones, at some point.

When Facebook and MySpace were emerging networks like Twitter is now, their retention rates were twice as high, says Martin. When they went through their explosive growth phases, that retention only went up, and both sit at nearly 70 percent today.

http://blog.nielsen.com/nielsenwire/online_mobile/twitter-quitters-post-roadblock-to-long-term-growth/

CableVision to Offer 101 Mbps, Claims Blagging Rights

Cablevision Systems Corp. plans to sell a new 101 Mbps service (with 15 Mbps upstream) for $99.95 a month. The service also will include free access to Cablevision's metro Wi-Fi service, beginning May 11, 2009.

These days, such really-fast services are more a matter of marketing rights than revenue. Earlier this year, Tom Rutledge, Cablevision COO said the company didn't expect much financial impact from any of the really-high speed services in 2009, at least where the consumer market is concerned.

To the extent actual sales will be happen, they are more likely to be generated by small business users. 

Monday, April 27, 2009

Are IP Telephony Suppliers Off the Mark?

Are VoIP retailers "failing to rethink their products aimed at small and medium-sized business owners?

It's hard to argue with this argument in favor of simplicity, savings and support. On the other hand, there arguably are other issues. Demand, for example.

Recent surveys conducted by Savatar Research over the last couple to several years consistently have shown relatively high awareness of IP telephony but flattening sales. Quarterly SME adoption rates of IP telephony have been falling since the third quarter of 2006, Savatar notes.

Since it is hard to think of any IP telephony provider that is not acutely aware of the need for simplicity, savings and support or extreme ease of installation so support isn't necessary, there still is some buyer resistance, apparently.

Savatar surveys also show fairly high awareness of new features IP telephony makes possible. About 38 percent of managers or executives at firms with up to 500 employees already believe IP telephony will save them money, says Savatar. At firms with less than 100 employees, as many as 42 percent of prospects might already believe IP telephony will save them money.

About 18 percent of prospects might be expected to believe that IP telephony offers a more innovative set of features, Savatar says.

Of course, some providers would argue they have cracked the code on IP telephony, and do not have any need to "rethink" how they are packaging and selling their products.

As Savatar says, SME buyers just want to be sure they are buying a phone system that works. Unified communications, software as a service, hosted and managed services, cloud computing and mashups are interesting to lots of us. Small organizations and businesses are unlikely to be so inclined. They just want a phone system or service that works.


Phone.com Debuts Consumer Service

Phone.com has introduced a "Virtual Number" service, allowing one primary phone number to function as the gateway to all of a user's mobile, landline, or VOIP phone numbers and devices.

Address books can be uploaded from most major email programs, and those entries can be used to program call routing based on caller ID, to enable click-to-call, call blocking or other functions.

The Phone.com Virtual Number essentially is a consumer version of the firm's business service, and will include voicemail, free international calling to popular destinations, send fax, call routing based on a time schedule, call recording, caller-id routing, SMS voicemail notification, email delivery of voicemail as a .wav file. Voicemail transcription is also available for a small additional fee, as are other upgrades.

Prices and plans range from $4.88 to $18.88/month (plus taxes) for unlimited minutes.

http://www.phone.com/



Mobile Web Sites 30% Slower than PC-Accessed Sites

Mobile Web sites are 30 percent slower than PC-based Web browsing, say Gomez, a provider of Web application experience management and web performance benchmarking, and dotMobi, the mobile domain registrar. 

Mobile Web applications and sites do not yet match the performance levels of “traditional” Web applications, the firms say. Among the five metrics not measured and monitored by Gomez are "discoverability," how readily a consumer can find the mobile Web site using different URLs.

"Readiness" measures how well the mobile Web site renders on popular mobile devices. "Availability" measures the percentage of successful transactions or the availability of a Web page.

"Response time" is a measurement of  how long each page takes to download and the duration of an entire transaction.
"Consistency" looks at how well the mobile Web site performs on different mobile carriers, in different geographies and time frames.

Lots of New Voice Apps are Fairly Subtle

Lots of new voice apps are fairly subtle, and many are related to call center or business-to-business applications, which is one reason one gets the impression (not unfounded) that innovation is voice is pretty limited.

As is typical, many are driven directly by customers with a specific problem to solve. Consider a new call screening feature developed by Stage 2 Networks, a provider of hosted PBX solutions, and BroadSoft.

The firms have developed an "Enhanced Call Screening" feature for Stage 2 Networks' hosted PBX service.

Stage 2 had a customer requiring that any inbound caller's name to be announced, even when the system identifies the 10-digit phone number as "Anonymous" or "Private".

A typical call screening feature provides a prompt to a caller to "please say your name," allowing the recipient to hear who is calling when caller ID displays block such information.

Verizon and AT&T: F. Scott Fitzgerald Said it Best

First-quarter financial reporting by AT&T and Verizon Communications now illustrates clearly how diverse telephone industry contestants, and the market, now has become.

Wireless now constitutes 57 percent of Verizon Communications consolidated revenue. Also, 27.9 percent of service revenue comes from data, with 58 percent of data revenue now earned from non-messaging services.

At AT&T, fully 72 percent of revenue now comes from sources other than landline voice.

Compare that with revenue sources at a typical independent, probably rural telephone company. There, revenues are very much tied to voice landlines in service. A typical small telco might earn 45 percent--nearly half--of its money from access revenues (terminating long distance traffic for another carrier), according to Telecom Think Tank.

About 35 percent of total revenue comes from universal service funds. Local service fees paid by end users is about 18 percent of total revenues.

Add it all up and 98 percent of small telco revenue is dependent on active voice lines. So note the clear dichotomy. AT&T and Verizon represent something on the order of 80 percent of all U.S. communications market share. And for these two companies, mobility drives the business, while multi-channel TV is becoming a key contributor, with broadband Internet access, to overall revenues.

Verizon also had 299,000 net adds for its FiOS TV service, which now is at 23 percent penetration of homes that can buy the service, and added 298,000 net FiOS Internet access customers, bringing penetration up to 27 percent.

Most other telcos do not have the option of relying on mobility, television or global enterprise customers to dramatically change their revenue composition. That is the big cleavage in the U.S. telco market.
The rich are different from you and me, " F. Scott Fitzgerald once wrote ("The Rich Boy" in the volume of short stories "All the Sad Young Men."). One might say the same about AT&T and Verizon, compared to virtually every other telecom company in the U.S. market.

For AT&T and Verizon, the transition to new revenue sources--away from wired voice--is largely completed. For many other telco, the future pattern is less clear.

Very-small telcos often also own separate cable TV or local wireless operations. The good news is that the "video" and "mobile" functions possibly already are provided. The less-good news is that small video and small wireless operations do not spin off the same level of gross revenue or margin that the national operators are able to.

So some independent telcos might well be said to have, or will in the future have, the same basic wireless-video-broadband strategy employed by Verizon and AT&T. Many others, though, will not be able to do so, and will have to craft strategies based on a different pattern. The issue now is what those patterns might be.

Opera Mini: More Evidence of Rapid Mobile Web Use

In March 2009, Opera Mini had over 23 million users, a 12.1 percent increase from February 2009 and more than 157 percent compared to March 2008.

Opera Mini users viewed over 8.6 billion pages in March 2009. Since February 2009, page views have gone up 17.4 percent. Since March 2008, page views have increased 255 percent.

In March 2009, Opera Mini users generated more than 148 million MBytes of data worldwide. Since February, the data consumed went up by 19.3 percent.

Data in Opera Mini is compressed up to 90 percent. If this data were uncompressed, Opera Mini users would have viewed up to 1.4 PBytes of data in March. Since March 2008, data traffic is up 319 percent.

http://www.opera.com/media/smw/2009/pdf/smw032009.pdf

Internet has Fragmented: Mobile, Video Will Accelerate Change

Though it is painful for many Internet proponents, the "Internet" now has fragmented. Though in a physical sense there might be said to be "one" Internet, in practice this is no longer the case.

There are lots of private networks, language communities have developed, and national government restrictions on unfettered access to content and use of services. In some sense, it still is true that any end point can reach any other public endpoint.

But we now are witnessing the birth of a mobile-optimized "Internet" as well as a "video-optimized" net, the primary constraint being screen size for the former, bandwidth the issue for the latter.

http://mashable.com/2009/04/27/my-internet-your-internet/

Friday, April 24, 2009

Bandwidth Caps are Just Buckets

Lots of people get upset about bandwidth caps that strike me as extraordinarily generous. Does anybody think the planet or the economy would be better off, companies better able to improve service or people given incentives to "do the right thing" if electricity, gasoline, water, natural gas or heating oil were sold on an "all you can eat" basis.

This is simple economics, folks. Most people can do all they want without ever worrying about bandwidth caps. That's why people like flat rate pricing. And most people don't abuse the reasonable use rules.

But when there is literally no penalty for consuming as much as some people seem to want, you get what economics teaches you will get: over-consumption.

I don't necessarily like my electricity or water rates. But I conserve because there is a penalty for unrestrained use.

Consider the difference between wireless "unlimited" plans and other plans that simply offer more minutes or capacity than you actually use in a month. Is there really any practical difference--for most people--between "truly unlimited" and "more than I can use" plans?

Caps are just buckets. As long as the buckets are capacious enough, the plans clear enough, the usage information available and the prices reasonable, buckets work. Bandwidth caps are just buckets.

http://stopthecap.com/2009/04/23/hissyfitwatch-cutting-off-customers-who-use-too-much-in-austin/

Video, Social Networking Changing the Web

The growing popularity of online social networking and video content is deepening web users’ engagement with the Internet and is causing a dramatic shift in the global online landscape, says the Nielsen Company.

Nielsen’s research shows that since 2003, the interests of the average online user have shifted significantly, evolving from use of “short-tail” portal-oriented browsing sites, such as shopping directories, guides and internet tools, to sites that contain more specialized “long-tail” content geared to specific and interactive user interests.

This change is manifested by the fact that video and social networking sites are the two fastest growing categories in 2009, and will necessitate new ways of thinking about online marketing, Nielsen says.

The number of American users frequenting online video destinations has climbed 339 percent since 2003. The unique audience for online video surpassed that of email in November 2007.

Time spent on video sites has shot up almost 2,000 percent over the same period. In the past year, unique viewers of online video grew 10 percent, the number of streams grew 41 percent, the streams per user grew 27 percent and the total minutes engaged with online video grew 71 percent.

There also are 87 percent more online social media users now than in 2003, with 883 percent more time devoted to those sites, Nielsen says.

http://www.marketingcharts.com/television/socnets-web-video-radically-alter-online-behavior-8838/?utm_campaign=rssfeed&utm_source=mc&utm_medium=textlink



Will Consumers Follow Through on Wireless Plans?

Some quarters are more important than others. The first quarter of 2009, for example, will provide an important test of whether consumers are "putting their money where their mouths are." The reason? Some surveys have consumers telling researchers they will cut back or drop important communication services.

A recent survey by Pew Research Center, for example, has some 20 percent of respondents reporting they’ve gone with a less expensive cell phone plan, or canceled service altogether. About 22 percent adults say they are saving money on their cell phone bills.

Young adults, the group that is the most likely to use mobiles, are the most likely to have taken this step: 30 percent of respondents under the age of 30 and 20 percent of other adults say they have changed cell plans or dropped service because of the recession.

Three-in-ten adults with family incomes below $30,000 say they have changed or cut their mobile service, and 13 percent of those making $100,000 or more say they have done so as well.

If those respondents really are acting as they say they will, we might expect a bit of an explosion as mobile providers report first-quarter results. To be sure, over the last couple of quarters there has been a clear upsurge in use of pre-paid mobile services, generally interpreted as a cost-saving measure.

Still, AT&T, the first mobile provider to report first-quarter results, had a wildly successful first quarter for post-paid plans. There are of course some other logical developments we might be watching for. Among the obvious economy measures are switching from post-paid to pre-paid plans, and that clearly is happening.

On the other hand, we will be watching for any signs of actual, industry-wide shrinkage of wireless accounts. A simple switch to pre-paid generally reduces average revenue per user, while maintaining subscriber numbers. That likely means some shift of market share among wireless providers, even if it does not automatically suggest overall subscriptions will dip.

Based solely on the AT&T results, respondents are not necessarily behaving as they say they will.

http://pewresearch.org/pubs/1199/more-items-seen-as-luxury-not-necessity


Thursday, April 23, 2009

New York Times Equity Now Worth Zero?

Quantum changes--such as when a liquid turns to gas or solid--are highly disruptive. That's what we've seen this year as decades of gradually-worsening business models have toppled major U.S. newspapers. Now one financial analyst says debt at the New York Times is so high it essentially values the company's equity at zero.

CallVantage Closing Highlights VoIP as Part of Triple Play

AT&T is discontinuing its CallVantage "over the top" VoIP service, a move that has some observers calling AT&T stupid for turning its back on the future. But that isn't what AT&T is doing. It will focus on using VoIP as a key part of its triple-play or quadruple-play consumer offerings, instead of devoting resources to a small, if well-run service that offers little synergy or business value with the other things the company is doing.

It just makes more sense to focus on VoIP as a part of a bundle.

Solar Plants in the Desert Will Be a Disaster

Tundra and desert arguably are the most-sensitive ecosystems to be found on land, with their plant life highly susceptible to disturbance. So essentially "clear cutting" huge swatches of desert for solar factories is bad enough. Draining the important underground aquifers is worse. 

"It is not in the public interest for BLM (Bureau of Land Management)  to approve plans of development for water-cooled solar energy projects in the arid basins of southern Nevada, some of which are already over-appropriated," Jon Jarvis, director of the Park Service's Pacific West Region, says. 

National Park Service hydrologists say nearly 16.3 billion gallons of consumption has been proposed by applications in the Amargosa Valley alone. That water cannot be replaced. 

Nevada officials say the basin can support only half that amount. Rushing to approve huge solar projects without proper environmental review is dangerous. Clearing the desert and draining the aquifers is worse. 

Solar power is a good thing. But not when destruction of fragile ecosystems is the price. 

EU Caps International Text, Mobile Internet Access Rates

As expected, the European Union has mandated price caps for international text messages, Reuters reports. Charges will be capped at rates as much as 60 percent lower for travelers in the European Union. The caps take effect in July

Operators will be allowed to charge customers a maximum of 11 euro cents (14 U.S. cents) for each text message, excluding sales tax, compared with current prices of about 28 cents, when customers use their mobiles outside their home countries.

Buying a song using a mobile phone or using a laptop with a dongle or GSM card to access the Internet will cost a maximum of 1 euro per megabyte at the wholesale level, from about 1.68 euros today.

Price caps that were introduced in 2007 on roaming voice calls.

The rule has to be ratified by each member state.

Solar Isn't Necessarily "Green." Neither is Ethanol.

In the desert, where many think we should create solar factories, solar is anything but "green." And that's before one considers the impact on aquifers. If you live out west, and you have spent even a little time looking at the matter, you realize that water is the truly-scarce resource. 

"Wet-cooled parabolic trough systems require five acre feet of water per megawatt. The five plants planned for Amargosa Valley, Nevada, propose to generate from 150 to 1,000 megawatts, so we are looking at over 10 million gallons of water a year. This water is fossil water believed to be tens of thousands of years old, not recharged since the last ice age. Even if they buy out the private water rights, there still would not be enough to supply this massive use of water. Devil's Hole, Ash Meadows wetlands, and springs of Death Valley (all home to a great diversity of endemic pupfish) would be dried up."

If you look at the amount of water required to grow corn, to create ethanol, you face the same problem. Water is the scarce resource. There are other ways to create clean energy. 

http://www.latimes.com/news/opinion/commentary/la-oe-pavlik15-2009feb15,0,7619561.story

Forget Job Growth: Rural Broadband Never Pays for Itself

Surprise, surprise: rural broadband does not automatically lead to measurable job growth or other economic benefits. That doesn't mean we shouldn't provide it. But it likely is not ever going to provide a financial return for the companies that install it.

Aside from that, assume $5,000 investment per home passed. Assume a 60-percent subscribe rate, at $50 a month retail prices. Assume a 30-percent profit margin on such accounts.

The per-subscriber cost of installing broadband is $8333.00. Recovery of the investment cost, without factoring in the cost of capital or time value of money is about 14 years. If one assumes the useful life of the plant is 20 years, a company never actually makes money on such investments.

AT&T Wireless-Broadband Bundles Show Strong Growth

Worth noting: AT&T CFO Rick Lindner says "our stand-alone DSL product which about 50 percent of the time is bundled with wireless has been very strong for us."


You might suspect there has been some recent promotional activity to encourage such behavior but that is not the case. "We haven’t been running any significant promotional activities I think in the last few quarters," Lindner says.

The implication: high-speed Internet access and wireless are the two foundation communications services.

E-Commerce Growth Falls off Cliff

The rate of growth for online products plummeted from 24 percent in early 2006 to nine percent in early 2008, while the rate of growth for products bought at retail locations dropped from nine to five percent over the same period.


One can think of lots of reasons why this might be the case. A more mature business grows more slowly.

There's less novelty effect. Perhaps it is just the impact of the recession, and more staples are bought at physical locations.

The issue is what happens after the recession ends. There's a line of thinking that with serious deleveraging happening throughout the economy, consumer spending will not return to its pre-recession level.

Off the top of my head, it's hard to see why this line of thinking is wrong, though it is worth noting that consumer behavior often surprises researchers.

Ad Priorities Radically Different Online

I estimate that direct response advertising accounts for about 80 percent of all ad dollars spent online, while in traditional media the situation is reversed," says Gian Fulgoni is chairman and co-founder of comScore. "There, branding dollars are estimated to make up about 75 percent of the market."

Why the disparity? "I believe that the very nature of the speed of the Internet and the young technical minds that first created online advertising both led to a focus on immediate response," he says. "The click metric is a good example of that."

“Time to purchase” is different for direct response ads, which aim at closing a sale or a transaction right here and now, and branding that builds brand equity that pays off over time.

Fulgoni thinks both are required. "For direct response ads to work well, it’s important that a brand’s equity have been communicated in advance of the consumer’s purchase decision," he says.

How do Internet media do brand building? "I believe it’s vital to take into account all of the marketing stimuli that affect consumer purchase behavior, not just that which occurred just prior to purchase."

"We should be wary of attributing 100 percent of the credit for a purchase to a click on a search ad," he says. Search might well have closed the deal, so to speak, but there is often a lot of other marketing activity that led the consumer down the path to purchase and, without which, closure might not have occurred.

The Atlas Institute, Microsoft Advertising’s research division, says “users exposed to both search and display ads convert at a higher rate: an average of 22 percent better than search alone."

http://www.comscore.com/blog/2009/04/branding_versus_direct_response.html

Wednesday, April 22, 2009

Apple Sells 3.79 million iPhones in 2Q

Apple sold 3.79 million iPhones in its second quarter and 11 million iPods. No problem blowing past analyst revenue forecasts. Other smart phone manufacturers might be under pressure. Not Apple.

T-Mobile Ultimately will Allow Skype over 3G

Despite understanable teeth gnashing over T-Mobile's blocking of Skype when using the 3G network, T-Mobile ultimately will allow it, either because customer pressure forces them to do so, or because European Union regulators do so.

Cablevision Systems Corp. Introduces Mobile Portal

If you are looking for some idea of what a cable-centric wireless service might look like, consider what Cablevision Systems Corp. is doing. After putting into place an extensive metro Wi-Fi network, it is launching a  mobile version of its Optimum.net Web portal that's designed for all forms of cellular handsets but tailored for the company's 2.5 million cable modem subscribers.

The new mobile platform, accessible to handset browsers at m.optimum.net, is starting off with features including email, local traffic, weather, movie theater info, and access to Cablevision's digital TV lineup, but a remote DVR scheduler is on the roadmap.

Starbucks Gets 60% Redemption Rate for SMS Coupons

Starbucks Coffee Co. is running a loyalty program based on bar-code coupons stored on mobile phones, in Guadalajara and San Luis Potosi, Mexico and has gotten a 60-percent redemption rate.

Starbucks created postcards being handed out in malls, universities and retail outlets. Consumers to text the keyword STARBUCKS to short code 80080 to download a "buy-one-get-one-free" coupon.

Separately, customers can text the keyword VENTI to short code 80080 to receive various discounts and offers that change each time the coupon is scanned.


Glad the Term "Year of Mobile Marketing" Wasn't Used

Still, location is a powerful new capability for anybody with marketing or sales responsibilities. Who you are, what you like to do, and where you are, right now, are powerful attributes we ultimately will figure out how to use.

There's one clear historical footnote: everytime somebody declares any year "the year of...", it isn't.

http://www.adotas.com/2009/04/mobile-marketing-has-arrived-for-real-this-time-–-are-you-prepared/

More Personalized Services for Mobile

Personalized services for mobile customers will grow from $806 million to $2.9 billion in annual operator revenue by 2011, say researchers at ABI Research. Among top applications are real-time charging for multimedia content and mobile Internet services.

Up to this point it has been difficult for carriers to easily charge customers for non-voice, non-text  purchases such as music and video downloads. With an increasing introduction of real-time charging capabilities for these services, customers can do it by topping up their prepaid accounts or using a credit card.

Perhaps the greatest growth opportunity for personalized services comes from  “metered broadband”: the ability to access the Internet on an ad hoc basis, or to extend in real time the access bundled in a subscriber’s plan.

Other personalized services include customized Web browsing, parental controls, and enhanced control of text messaging which will enable users to block certain numbers, set some automated forwarding rules, and otherwise configure their SMS.

AT&T Results: No Negative Recession Impact

AT&T's first quarter 2009 results suggest it is not suffering from economy-induced customer budgetary caution. Its earnings per share were in line with its full-year outlook, the company gained 1.2 million net wireless subscribers to reach 78.2 million, ading 875,000 retail postpaid net adds, up 24.1 percent compared to the first quarter of 2008.

The company also posted its fifth consecutive quarter with a year-over-year increase in wireless postpaid subscriber average revenue per user, up 2.1 percent versus the year-earlier quarter to $59.21.

AT&T firther saw strong growth in its U-verse IPTV segment, adding 284,000 net customers, nearly double the company’s gain in the first quarter of 2008, to reach 1.3 million in service.

The company also posted a 471,000 net increase in total broadband connections, including wireline and wireless LaptopConnect cards, to reach 16.7 million in service.

Deutsche Telekom Issues Profit Warning

Deutsche Telekom AG has issued a profit warning which it blames on the economic slump, says Dow Jones newswire. Citing weak mobile operations in the United States., the United Kingdom and Poland, Deutsche Telekom says it now expects 2009 earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization to be two percent to four percent below 2008's level of EUR19.5 billion, while free cash flow is set to reach around EUR6.4 billion, down from EUR7 billion a year ago.

But Deutsche Telekom first-quarter revenue rose by around six percent to about EUR15.9 billion. Free cash flow was between EUR200 million and EUR300 million in the first quarter of 2009, compared with EUR1.6 billion in the same period last year, it said.

Deutsche Telekom said it had "felt the impact of the economic slowdown and the more intense competitive environment," particularly in the United States and United Kingdom., while roaming revenue fell as consumers cut back on travel.

The weak zloty in Poland and weak sterling in the U.K. also hurt revenue and adjusted EBITDA, the company says.

Some observers think "blaming the economy" is less relevant than operational shortcomings, currency effects, market share shifts and other issues, though.

In Poland, revenues are expected to take hit following a 26 percent decline in the value of the Polish zloty to the euro, says Emeka Obiodu, Ovum senior analyst. The U.K. pound also is down 21 percent compared to the euro.

Competition rather than the recession remains the major problem, says Obiodu. "Generally, the market dynamics have not changed much and competition remains fierce."

"In fact, we have yet to see any disastrous performance from a mobile operator that can be blamed solely on the economic crisis," Obiodu says." Indeed, for each of the recessionary factors cited by Deutsche Telekom for its profit warning (apart from currency risk), it is possible to show a corresponding non-recessionary force at play."

Roaming revenue is down. But the EU has mandated cuts in mobile roaming. In the UK, off the four main mobile operators in the market, T-Mobile’s organic revenue growth for each of the four quarters of 2008 was the lowest, says Obiodu.

In the United States, intense competition and the increased push for unlimited bundles is having a major impact on T-Mobile USA. There are other explanations for the quarterly results, in other words.

Blu-Ray Sales Double, Packaged Media Not Dead?

A new study from Adams Media Research shows that sales of Blu-ray discs in the first quarter of 2009 nearly doubled compared to the same period a year ago, rising to nearly 9 million from 4.8 million in the first quarter of 2008.

Netflix also seems to be growing, and is expected to have 11.2 million subscribers by the end of 2009, after hitting the 10-million subscriber mark for the first time in February 2009.

Will Some Broadband Stimulus Funding Follow Irish Example?

At least some homes in rural Ireland will be supplied with broadband using satellite connections, after a deal was announced between Avanti Communications, the U..K satellite company, and Hutchison 3G Ireland, according to the Financial Times.

Last year the Irish government awarded a contract to Hutchison 3G Ireland to supply broadband to the 10 percent of the population whose locations are remote enough that extending fixed line connections are not feasible. Most of the 220,000 homes are in rural areas, and the majority will connect to the Internet using mobile connections, starting late in April.

Hutchison 3G Ireland could supply Internet access to up to 6,000 Irish homes through satellite connections.

Satellite connections tend to be viewed as too expensive and too slow, compared to wired connections. But sometimes wired connections are financially unworkable. Avanti is using Ka-band spectrum, which allows powerful spot beams to be focused on small areas.

Hughes Network Systems and Wildblue Communications in the United States also use Ka-band technology, offering higher-power signals and bandwidth.

The new broadband satellite services should cost around £20 per month, bringing them into line with prices for fixed-line and mobile connections.

One wonders whether anybody is going to figure out that for the most-isolated locations, satellite might be the most-efficient way to rapidly extend broadband access. Perhaps it won't offer maximum bandwidth equivalent to a fiber to the home connection or VDSL.

But that isn't the point. If you want to get broadband to isolated locations fast and affordably, satellite sometimes is the only option.

http://www.telecomseurope.net/article.php?type=article&id_article=8470&utm_source=lyris&utm_medium=newsletter&utm_campaign=telecomseurope


More Full-Time Bloggers than Lawyers?

If I had to pick just one, I'd say the Wall Street Journal is the single best newspaper in the United States. But this story is just wrong in claiming there are more people making a living blogging than lawyers in the United States!

It simply doesn't fit anybody's common sense experience.

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB124026415808636575.html

Advice for NTIA Broadband Stimulus Applicants

Some would argue "partnerships" are going to be key for winners of broadband stimulus grants under the National Telecommunications and Information Administration's program.

You might think this a simple matter of taste or fashion. It isn't. The statutory language favors non-profit groups. But non-profit groups typically do not have the ability to create sustainable communication networks.

There are some possible exceptions. Municipalities might dust off older business plans for municipal Wi-Fi networks. Even there, partnerships would likely be helpful.

http://www.successful.com/msp/snapshot-4-09.pdf

Telcos, Airlines, Newspapers: Structurally Incapable of Making a Profit?

Some businesses, some would argue, are structurally incapable of making a sustained profit. Airlines are the typical example. Others seem to make money only if operated as monopolies. Electrical, water and natural gas services are examples.

This year, we have started to see major U.S. newspapers going out of business. So you would think advertising, a key pillar of the newspaper business model, has migrated elsewhere; to TV or the Internet. Clearly, some has. But migration to Internet venues has slowed.

You might attribute some of that to the recession. But there's a bigger problem right now. As advertising tends to follow eyeballs, you'd think Twitter, Facebook and YouTube would be getting more ad revenue. They aren't getting as much as you might think, or any at all. In fact, some online properties are faring better than print assets, but not by much.

In the first quarter, Yahoo's revenue dropped 13 percent while New York Times Company revenue fell 18 percent, and advertising dropped 27 percent.

So far, nobody has successfully replicated the two-sided revenue stream characteristic of so much of the "old" media in the "new" media space. It has proven largely impossible to monetize content directly.Nor has it proven easy to create stable and large advertising streams.

This is a bigger problem than some realize, as it is not confined to the media, new or old. In telecommunications, all the new fundamental services, IP voice, broadband access and video, are less profitable than older voice services.

Mobility has been key in enabling a transition away from long distance revenue as an industry mainstay. But even that will be under increasing pressure as mobility becomes a broadband access service, with similar margin issues faced by wired network providers.

That's one reason why some of us spend so much time writing about, and thinking about, business models. Right now, some models don't work, while others don't work well.

http://247wallst.com/2009/04/22/the-end-of-%E2%80%9Cnew-media%E2%80%9D-yhoonytgoog/



Tuesday, April 21, 2009

4.3 Billion Mobile Subscribers This Year

With mobile subscriptions expected to reach 4.3 billion in 2009 and to grow to nearly 5.4 billion by 2013, mobile communications have evolved from “nice-to-have,” to providing utility-like services, say researchers at ABI Research.

The trends driving these capabilities are evolving and include changing distribution models, greater choice of connected devices, faster networks and proliferation of mobile applications. All these choices highlight one of the biggest challenges facing the industry today: mobile services personalization.

“Customers increasingly want a personalized experience with their mobile device and service," says ABI Research Mobile Services practice director Dan Shey. Service personalization involves not only allowing them to find and select the right mobile services and applications but also to control, monitor, and pay for mobile services in a way that best suits their needs."

RCN Rate Hike Raises Ire

I have yet to meet or hear from a video customer who actually was happy about a rate increase, so it is no surprise RCN customers are sqwaking about the latest rate increase they are facing.

Up to this point there have not been many options. The favorite channels most of us watch (a different package for every single viewer) are not available a la carte. In truth, for a package of 10 to 15 channels, especially featuring sports content,  it is doubtful a consumer can save much over current packaged rates.

But it is unlikely distributors can "forever" expect rates to be hiked without something breaking, somewhere.

In my case, two channels plus occasional use of a couple others, justify the entire basic package. But as rates continue to climb, so does the level of irritation.

So far, those two essential channels are not available online, or a la carte.

Of course, distributors aren't dumb. They can assume lots of viewers will be sorely tempted to opt for packages that deliver several channels of most interest, possibly with a "casual viewing" video on demand feature, that might satisfy many current customers.

Nobody knows whether a la carte or expanded VOD options would be revenue neutral. Distributors and networks have reason to fear any change in that direction would not be revenue neutral.

But I don't think some move in the direction of flexibility is avoidable forever. It might be fine positioning for a distributor to say the fees are higher, but so are the variety of channels.

That does not correspond with the way most people watch linear TV, though. Most people do not watch, or even want, most of those channels. And there lies the rub.

There are some precedents, however. Premium channels such as HBO always have been offered a la carte.  But the movie channels, pay per view and VOD always have been fully subscriber-funded formats.

Ad-supported channels have reason to fear the economics of a la carte choice, though. Still, if you look at your on-screen guide, you can see some "natural" packages based around sports, news or entertainment that suggest logical packages that are more targeted than what is possible today. That might be a half step that could work, if most customers do not choose those options.

The system isn't seriously broken yet. But each rate hike increases customer dissatisfaction just a bit more. Someday, it will break.

AT&T Reports Ap 22: What to Look For

AT&T reports first quarter results on April 22. I suspect most of us will be watching for any weakness in wireless net additions or average revenue per user. Everybody expects residential voice lines to decline, so the issue there might be a slowing of the rate of loss. Business customer revenues likely will be considered a success if growth essentially is flat.

A consumer landline loss in the 10 to 12 percent range is probably to be expected, while enterprise segment revenue likely will be off a couple to several points. None of that would be unexpected.

Video entertainment subscribers should grow, but will not likely have a material effect. Broadband net additions will be less robust than in the first quarter of 2008.

Canadians Heavy Online Video Consumers

In February 2009 21 million Canadians viewed more than 3.1 billion videos online, says comScore. The average Canadian online video viewer spent 10 hours viewing videos in February, up 53 percent from their average viewing time last year.

Monday, April 20, 2009

Shift in Unified Communications Value?

By the end of the year, or at least within the next couple of years, we all might have a different perspective on unified communications, traditionally viewed as something involving business phone systems, instant messaging and conferencing apps.

There are several reasons, among them a view that the "value of traditional desk phone and desktop PC is diminishing." Remote workers and mobility might become the lead value proposition for some buyers. For others, there might be an equally strong shift to IP-based conferencing as the lead application, based on "economic uncertainty as companies look to cut cost" in areas such as travel.

Integration of communication functions directly with business applications is an on-going and underlying trend that likewise could shift attention on UC value.

http://horizonwatching.typepad.com/horizonwatching/2009/04/primer-on-unified-communications.html

97% of Business Communications Now is Email

As much as 97 percent of all business communications now occurs using email, says Bakbone. And though some executives would not place much credence on the financial impact of email outages, which some estimate can cost a 500-person enterprise about $1.5 million in lost productivity, the cost of paying employees who cannot use basic business communications such as email has been calculated by multiplying the total hours of downtime per year by $18,000 per hour.

For an enterprise of any size, that cost can range from “up to $100,000” to “up to $500,000,” Bakbone says. Then there is the cost of information technology resources that must be consumed to get email systems back in operation.

Whether one considers such soft costs significant or not, the typical email outage lasts 69 minutes, and annual email outages can total 32.1 hours a year, Bakbone says.

http://www.itbusinessedge.com/offer.aspx?o=03830006em0420

Sampling Works at iPhone App Store


Encouraging potential customers to sample your wares is a time-tested demand stimulation technique, and it seems to work on the Apple App Store as well, an analysis of data by Flurry indicates. Among the strongest marketing plays in the App Store are free trials of a game or application.

There's not much surprise about why this works. Potential buyers unfamiliar with a company or application can see for themselves whether any particular app is useful or entertaining before committing to a purchase.

66 Million U.S. Consumers Now Multi-Task

Over 66 million consumers are using the Internet while camped out on their sofas watching TV, according to market research firm In-Stat. About a third of male respondents to a recent survey say they "sometimes" do so. About 25 percent of female respondents say they use a PC while watching TV.

One-fifth of all respondents reported doing instant messaging while watching TV.

That's both good news and bad news. The good news is it suggests there might be some upside for content, application providers and service providers in the area of integrating PC, mobile or Web features with the TV experience.

The bad news? One reason some people might be time-sharing is because the TV content is not that compelling, compared to alternative pursuits such as using the Internet.

$5 Billion Less Consumer Spending on Mobile, Broadband, TV?

Though first quarter financial results are not yet available to confirm the possible existence of the trend, about 15 percent of respondents say they will cut back spending on subscription-TV, broadband, and mobile services in response to economic pressures, an In-Stat survey finds. Precisely what that means is the question.

If any significant trend of that sort emerges, U.S. consumers could cut spending on mobile, broadband and pay TV services by nearly $5 billion due to economic turmoil, In-Stat says.

Will consumers drop mobile, broadband or multi-channel video subscriptions completely, or simply shift consumption to more-affordable subscriptions? The former would cause a greater hit to revenue and a risk that customers do not return later, the latter might "simply" pressure on average revenue per user.

In the fourth quarter of 2008, a slowing rate of growth could be seen for at least some services, but it was hard to separate purely-economic effects from product maturation. So far, mobile service providers have seen a shift to prepaid services from postpaid.

It wouldn't be unusual to see consumers dropping some premium services or postponing upgrades in the face of a tough recession. What would make news is negative growth for subscription services other than wired voice, which has been declining, at least for some providers, for years.

We'll find out soon enough what is going on.

WeFi, fring expand VoIP over Wi-Fi Options

WeFi Inc, an open global Wi-Fi network, and fring, a leading mobile Internet community and communication service, today launched the WeFi add-on for fring that gives users mobile access to the largest database of 20 million Wi-Fi access points worldwide, said to be growing by over one million a month.

The new WeFi add-on for fring provides users with easy and free access to millions of Wi-Fi hotspots from their mobile devices. The alpha test of this service has been particularly popular with business and pleasure travelers, WeFi says.

The WeFi add-on currently works on hundreds of Symbian and Windows Mobile devices with the latest version of fring which can be downloaded or upgraded from www.fring.com/download/.

A full list of supported handsets is available at www.fring.com/download/default_PC.asp.

To locate and access millions of hotspots from these mobile devices, users simply select the WeFi add-on from the add-ons tab within fring. Users can locate their Wi-Fi hotspot location automatically using their handset’s GPS capability, or manually by typing in any address worldwide.

Bandwidth Caps a Competitive Disadvantage?

Time Warner Cable has shelved its plans to shift its residential broadband customers to “consumption-based billing”, at least for the moment, as a way of controlling excessive bandwidth use by a small number of really-heavy users and maintaining quality of service for other users who share the network. Short of investing in a higher-capacity access network, it isn't clear how some way of matching consumption to cost is avoidable, long term.

But that points out one advantage Verizon Communications has: it has ample access bandwidth to provide uncapped usage, which could become a marketing weapon wherever it competes with other providers who do impose caps or other sorts of restrictions.

Sunday, April 19, 2009

Bandwidth Caps Driving Dissatisfaction?


One wonders whether consumer outrage about Time Warner Cable's bandwidth caps play some role in Time Warner Cable's low consumer happiness ratings.

Time Warner ranks on this March 2009 survey as low as Charter, which never has had especially high consumer satisfaction ratings.

Frankly, we are used to seeing Time Warner rank higher than this.

Ranking that low--equivalent to Charter-- is absolutely nothing to be proud of, and quite a change from past years.

Twitter Crosses the Chasm

There's a difference between early adopters and mass markets. That being the case, Twitter is crossing an adoption chasm.  Early adopters will look around for the next new thing, because it won't be so much fun now that "everybody" is discovering it.

But what also is likely to occur is that Twitter's usefulness now will grow, as the reason most people use tools is that they are useful. Twitter is now about to find its place as something so useful most people will find they want to use it.

Virgin Mobile Wants Greater Share of Prepaid Mobile Market

Presumably first quarter financial results will show continued growth in uptake of prepaid wireless plans in the U.S. mobile market. Virgin Mobile USA
hopes to capitalize on the trend, as it has cut its unlimited calling plan from $80 to $50 a month.

Two of Virgin's other monthly calling plans also get a price cut. The 300-anytime minute plan was cut to $30 from $35. The 400 anytime minutes plan was reduced from $50 to $40.

Text-only plans also are offered: the new Texter's Delight plan costs $15 a month for 1000 messagesa month. An unlimited texting plan is available for $20. Those plans include photo, instant messaging and video messages as well as SMS. Voice calls cost 10 cents per minute.

Virgin has also introduced a Pink Slip Protection (PSP) program. To be eligible for PSP, customers must be a Virgin Mobile USA customer for two consecutive months prior to losing a job, and become eligible for state unemployment benefits within 12 months. Virgin Mobile will cover the costs of a plan including taxes and surcharges for up to three months.

Saturday, April 18, 2009

IP Voice Innovation Lags Text, Despite GoogleVoice

One is hard pressed to point to new voice apps, beyond integrated text messaging, find-me, follow-up or visual voice mail, that have become mass market IP voice applications. Dialing from a directory or "click to dial" are helpful, but the bigger changes so far are a simple switch to VoIP in place of plain old telephone service.

The next trend is IP voice on mobile devices, where it has to this point been seen in a "voice from PCs or telephone adapters" scenario.

Contrast that with the pace of development in text-based communications, ranging from text messaging to instant messaging to email to blogging to tweeting. One is tempted to conclude that voice innovation is hampered in part because of its relative complexity, relative incremental cost and an underlying shift in the direction of text communications (messaging) overall.

That isn't to say such voice innovation will not occur; simply that it apparently is harder than innovation in the messaging arena.

Friday, April 17, 2009

Online Video Viewing Up 2%, Streams Per Viewer Up 7%

Online video viewing was up in March 2009, says Nielsen Online. Unique viewers grew 1.9 percent year over year. Total streams viewed grew 8.7 percent year over year. Streams per viewer grew 6.7 percent and time spent per viewer grew 12.6 percent.

The central question here is whether linear TV can survive a shift to online viewing. So far, the evidence suggests that the rush to online video “screens” hasn’t necessarily hurt linear TV. At least not yet.

We'll know a bit more once all the first quarter 2009 reports are in, but as of the fourth quarter 2008 there was a net addition of  441,000 subscribers to multi-channel TV services, compared to the start of 2008.

Still, there is no shortage of thinking about how long this can continue.

Building an Ad-Supported Text Messaging Business

Many observers think communication service providers have got to create new revenue streams in partnership with business partners, rather than basing 100 percent of revenue on end users who pay for communication capabilities.

As always is the case for a developing business based on partnerships, partners will differ about the relative values they are bringing to the relationships, as well as relative revenue splits. Ad-supported text messaging campaigns are no different.

“For advertising-supported SMS, the net revenue per message is $0.004, and the carriers dispute this, but that’s the reality of the business,” says David Oberholzer, Limbo VP. “The model isn’t completely solid, and it’s unrealistic to think the CPMs (cost per thousand) we’ll be able to charge will go up dramatically, so it’s unrealistic for carriers trying to impose these types of per-message fees.

“Even relatively small carrier fees will drive out innovation to other platforms, and that’s already happening—look at all the advertising in iPhone apps,” he says. “If carriers raise costs, then that will be exacerbated.”

All of this will get worked out over time, but the issue illustrates the problem: a new and somewhat experimental new business requires nurturing and some degree of give and take between ecosystem partners.


Windstream is Using Twitter for Customer Support

Windstream now is using Twitter to communicate with customer having service issues. "Sorry for the trouble you're experiencing. you can dm or email me and I can check on that for you," Windstream tweets back to a customer.

http://twitter.com/windstream

Toblerone Runs Social Mobile Campaign

Kraft Foods' Toblerone is sponsoring a "Play it, Forward it, Share the Gratitude" mobile promotion that encourages consumers to extend gratitude to loved ones by uploading mobile video and text messages and have them broadcast on digital walls in Greenbelt and Bonifacio High Street in the Philippines.

There is a Web site for the Toblerone ‘Play it, Forward it’ promotion with brand information, details about the promotion, upload and entry forms, desktop widgets, contact details and tallies of uploaded videos, texts and votes.

Consumers can send their thank you videos and text messages to the mobile phones of families and friends from the Toblerone campaign site.

Customers can use bar codes on the candy’s packaging to retrieve discount mobile coupons as well. Social apps supporting the campaign also are available on Facebook and Friendster.

The campaign is powered by TMSfactory.

http://www.mobilemarketer.com/cms/news/advertising/2805.html

Thursday, April 16, 2009

Working Americans Use Social Networking; Not Much for Business, Yet

Of 10,000 working American’s surveyed by Compass Intelligence in late November 2008, nearly 60 percent said they were active on a social networking site, but most are not yet using social sites for business purposes.

The most popular site, according to research, is FaceBook, with nearly 35 percent of respondents being registered members of this site.

http://is.gd/hrUr

Federal Telecom Spending $47 Billion in 2009, Growing

Federal information technology spending on IT reached $129 billion in 2008, and will increase in the mid single-digits through 2013, when spending will reach $159 billion, say analysts at Compass Intelligence.


The largest category of Federal IT spending is in the telecom segment, which will receive a big boost due to new Federal policies regarding broadband.

Telecom spending by the Federal government will reach $47 billion in 2009, ramping up faster than many other categories to reach $59 billion by 2013."

Time Warner Cable Shelves Bandwidth Caps

Time Warner Cable appears, for the moment, to be retreating from its bandwidth cap tests in four U.S. cities, temporary ending a controversial experiment that would have created new usage buckets.

Those plans would have featured a lighter user plan featuring 1 Gbyte per month of usage for $15 per month. About 30 percent of Time Warner Cable customers use less than 1 Gyte per month.

Other plans would have featured caps of 10, 20, 40, 60 and 100 GBytes, plus an unlimited plan for the highest-speed 50 Mbps service.

Twitter Usage Explodes in March


The number of visitors to Twitter.com jumped 131 percent in March to 9.3 million visitors, up from five million in February.

We call that an inflection point!

Consumers Sending "Price" Signals to Apple?

Economists are fairly unanimous about one element of human behavior. When prices of any product are raised, demand tends to drop. The salient exception is "luxury" goods, where higher prices sometimes stimulate demand. But early evidence suggests that consumers believe 99 cents is the "right" price for a single song.

Last week was the first week of iTunes’s new, steeper pricing on some tracks, and consumers voted with their wallets, according to Billboard. Sales figures from iTunes show that tracks that now sell for $1.29, up from $0.99, sold 12.5 percent fewer units than during the previous week, while tracks whose prices were unchanged sold 10 percent more than the week before.

Overall revenue was up three percent during the week, so it might not be possible to blame the "economy" for the changes. It appears that unit sales for the top-100 songs were up for the week.

YouTube As Monetizable as a Newspaper?

"User-generated content" is proving to be a financial albatross, says Farhad Manjoo, Slate's technology columnist.

YouTube, for example, sells ads on fewer than 10 percent of its videos, according to analysts at Credit Suisse. But the costs of storing and serving up 75 billion video clips a year costs Google $360 million a year, the analysts estimate. Add in all other expenses, and the cost of running YouTube for one year exceeds $700 million. But YouTube will make about $240 million in revenues for 2009.

Oddly enough, YouTube loses more money on its content than a daily newspaper.

http://slate.com/id/2216162

You Tube Sensation Will Grab You

If this does not make you tear up just a little in joy, I'm not sure you have a heart.

Tweet Shows IP Impact

"The terrible phone connection I was blaming on our VoIP line turns out to be the cordless phone clashing with WiFi," says Matthew Weinberg. "May need to go corded."

That's as good an example of any about the changes IP technology has wrought for service providers, who no longer can simply sell a connection, terminate at a network interface and hand off the premises network and devices to an end user. That generally worked when interface specifications were stringent and the total number of devices and applications were limited.

These days the application and device environment is much more complex. But users will call their service provider when applications or devices don't work properly. One way or the other, greater involvement in premises networks and configuration are required.

Wednesday, April 15, 2009

Skype Proves Stand-Alone Long Distance is a Business

Now that it appears Skype will become a stand-alone company, we have to note the irony. Telcos and cable companies have concluded that long distance no longer is a viable stand-alone business. That's essentially why AT&T and MCI Worldcom do not exist as independent companies.

But it is worth keeping in mind that when an executive says something cannot be done, what that really means is that "I cannot, with my cost structure, personnel or technology holdings, do that." Skype will be able to compete as a stand-alone long distance provider. To greater or lesser degrees, much the same can be said for calling card providers.

As true as it may be that a service provider cannot make a viable business selling long distance alone, that isn't true for all market contestants. One simply needs a different cost structure and channel.

The issue now is what Skype actually is worth. Merill Lynch analyst Justin Post says Skype is worth $2.2 billion, and that could grow to $3 billion by the time it either goes public in 2010 or is sold.

Jeffries & Company analyst Youssef Squali values Skype at $1 billion.

Thomas Wiesel analyst Christa Quarles thinks Skype is worth $1.7 billion. Credit Suisse analyst Spencer Wang, meanwhile, values Skype at $1.85 billlion.

Skype and eBay: Cautionary Tale for Communications-Enabled Business Processes

As useful as communications-enabled business apps might be, eBay's inability to wring any significant advantages out of voice-enabling eBay. Perhaps messaging of other sorts is valuable, but voice integration does not seem to have added much of anything to the eBay shopping experience.

All of which raises the question of where and when voice communications, perhaps as opposed to text-based communications, adds value to another application, or adds enough value that people even care very much.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aCWYwCYVyHx4&refer=home

Tuesday, April 14, 2009

Social Media Campaign Generates 28% Sales Lift

Packaged-goods firms are cautious about social media, as the return on investment is tough to measure. But MySpace recently hosted a $1 million campaign for a personal care product that achieved exposure to 76.9 million people, about 40 percent of the U.S. Internet user base, creating 1.1 billion impressions and generating $1.28 million in incremental sales, Advertising Age says.

Of 76.9 million people exposed to the campaign in four months, 765,000, or fewer than one percent, visited an advertiser page on MySpace.

But the campaign produced $1.28 million in offline sales, as measured by loyalty program provider Dunnhumby, which compared purchases among shoppers not exposed to the campaign with purchases among those who were.

That amounted to a 28 percent return on investment, not counting returns from repeat sales among consumers the brand won via the campaign. About 17 percent of the sales were of products advertised in the campaign; the rest of the sales lift went to the parent brand, in a "halo effect."

One question: whether that level of return will hold up for larger campaigns.

http://adage.com/digital/article?article_id=135940

Kraft Foods Tweets

Kraft Foods is using Twitter to spread word about where its Oscar Mayer Wienermobile drivers will be next. Kraft also launched the "DiGiorno Crispy Flatbread Pizza" by delivering pizza to "tweet-ups," or in-person, social-media gatherings.

AT&T Seeks to Extend iPhone Exclusive

AT&T is now in discussions with Apple Inc. to get an extension of AT&T's exclusive on the iPhone until 2011, the Wall Street Journal reports. AT&T also is seeking to overhaul AT&T's marketing to make wireless the priority. Ultimately, that likely will mean that customers can qualify for AT&T discounts on IPTV or broadband access if they are a wireless customer, where tradtionally AT&T has tied discounts to being a wireline voice customer.

AT&T has 77 million wireless customers and 30 million consumer voice lines.

The intensified focus on wireless shows just how much is changing in the world of former wired telephone companies. Where once most telcos were very similar in terms of services offered, customer base and strategy, firms are becoming quite differentiated. Verizon and AT&T have options, footprints and business segments quite distinct from those of virtually all other U.S. carriers.

The big challenge is what wired network providers without the scale and wireless assets of those two firms will fashion their business strategies.

Mobile Broadband: 2nd or 3rd Mass Market Mobile Data App

By the end of 2014 more than two billion users globally will be accessing the Internet using a mobile broadband connection, analysts at Ovum now project. By that point, mobile broadband will have proven to be the first mass market data application since text messaging (short message service). Some of us might argue that mobile email was the second mass market data application, but a success on this level would be quite noteworthy, in any event. 

Total mobile broadband users will grow by 1024 percent by 2014, while total mobile broadband revenues grow at a 33-percent cumulative average growth rate over the forecast period.

Total mobile broadband revenues will not only stem the decline in text messaging revenue Ovum expects will happen, but also will grow operator overall revenues. Though handset access to mobile broadband services will exceed laptop access in terms of number of users, laptop ARPU is six times greater than handset ARPU.

Bluetooth at Fiesta Fiesta: Proximity Marketing in Action

Attendees at the “Fiesta Fiesta” event in Alamo Plaza on April 16 might see a pop-up message might appear on their Bluetooth-equipped mobile phones offering a 15 percent off coupon for a Fiesta pin.

The message comes from Blue Zone Mobile Media, which employs Bluetooth technology to send coupons, images, ring tones and video clips to cell phones within a 300-foot radius of its broadcasting device.

The San Antonio-based advertising company partnered with the Fiesta San Antonio Commission for the event. Blue Zone also is working with Pocket Communications Inc., Toyota Motor Co. and Anheuser-Busch InBev to send out Bluetooth ads to cell phones during Fiesta.

Levi's, Bacardi and Pepsi all have dabbled with Bluetooth ad campaigns on mobile phones, offering incentives at festivals, train stations, bus stops and shopping malls. Last month, the Bluetooth Special Interest Group used Bluetooth wireless technology to send songs and wallpaper from various artists to the mobile phones of people attending the South by Southwest Festival in Austin.

When the consumer comes within range of Blue Zone's hardware, they receive a message from one of its advertisers, McWright said. From there, the user can accept or decline the invitation, he said. If they accept, Blue Zone can transmit a video clip, ring tone or coupon to them.

“We make sure our campaigns are 100 percent opt-in,'' said Vincent Hearn Jr., Blue Zone's founder.

http://www.mysanantonio.com/business/Bluetooth_messages_to_pop_up_for_Fiesta.html

Social Marketing Generates Qualified Sales Leads, Business Owners Say

Some small business users of social networking for marketing purposes are relying heavily on tools such as Twitter, blogs, LinkedIn and Facebook, a survey of some 700 early adopters finds.

About half the respondents to the survey were sole proprietor operations, typically in service businesses. The study was conducted by Michael A. Stelzner, indicates that users gain not only by increased awareness, as you might expect, but also served as a lead generation tool.

About 48 percent of respondents say social marketing created qualified sales leads.

Small Businesses Say Social Marketing Really Works

Mobility and social networking increasingly are seen as fundamental underpinnings of tomorrow's marketing environment. And though it is tough to quantify, some very-small business early adopters do believe social marketing has really worked for them. And while social media takes time, as much as 20 hours a week, respondents say it saves them money.

According to ABI Research, mobile marketing revenues will increase to more than $24 billion worldwide in 2013. CCS Insight believes that by the end of 2009 annual mobile advertising revenue in Western Europe alone will amount to €236 million.

Mobile is crucial for small businesses trying to reach their local consumers, it often is noted, in part because most small businesses sell locally. It also might be true that, though use of social media is not yet mainstream, small businesses--especially those run by sole proprietors--can rely on social media for marketing.

Some 88 percent of respondents to a recent survey of business professionals recruited using Twitter, blogs or Facebook use social media to market their businesses. About half the respondents are sole proprietors.

Twiter was used by 86 percent of respondents while blogs were used by 79 percent of users. LinkedIn was used by 78 percent of respondents and 77 percent said they used Facebook.

Business owners were more likely to use social media marketing (more than 90 percent) than employees working for a business (81 percent). People aged 30 to 39 years were most likely to use social media marketing (92.8 percent), says vMichael A. Stelzner, founder of WhitePaperSource.com.

A significant 61 percent of those investing more than 20 hours per weeks are using social bookmarking sites.

The largest group just getting underway with social media marketing was sole proprietors (30.2 percent reported just getting started) while owners of small businesses with two to 100 employees were the most experienced (29.3 percent reporting doing social media marketing for years).

A significant 81 percent of all marketers indicated that their social media efforts have generated exposure for their businesses. Improving traffic and growing lists was the second major benefit, followed by building new partnerships.

An unexpected benefit was a rise in search engine rankings reported by more than half of participants. As the search engine rankings improve, so will business exposure, lead generation efforts and a reduction in overall marketing expenses. About one in two marketers found social media generated qualified leads.

Social marketing takes time. But it also substitutes for paid media buys.

Rural Broadband, Green Energy and Externalities

The reason people ought to study economics more carefully is because good intentions do not always translate into "good results." In the broadband access and "green energy" businesses, though the assumption is that more broadband, and more green energy are purely positive, each could destroy some jobs, some economists note. As always is the case in real life and the real economy, choices have consequences not intended. 

The general notion about broadband spending mandated as part of the national economic “stimulus” plan is that it will create jobs. To be sure, construction of the access networks will drive some direct employment.

Some 128,000 jobs (or 32,000 jobs per year) could be generated from network construction over a four year period, and each job would cost $50,000, according to Dr. Raul Katz, adjunct professor at the Columbia Business School.

Beyond that, such new broadband facilities are supposed to spur economic development as well. But will it?

Unfortunately, says Katz, research on the productivity impact of broadband indicates the potential for capital-labor substitution and consequently, the likelihood of job destruction resulting from broadband deployment, as well as some incremental job creation. So the issue is whether net job creation exceeds net job destruction, and by how much.

You might think bringing broadband access to any community can only be a plus. As it turns, out broadband creates jobs and destroys them as well.

Since broadband tends to enable the outsourcing of jobs, a potential displacement of employment in the service sector from the area targeted for deployment might also occur, says Katz.

Also, some job creation in the targeted areas could be the result of relocation of functions from other areas of the country, and therefore, should not be considered as creating incremental employment, he adds.

Still, Katz says, the study results indicate that some job creation aside from the actual construction jobs is feasible. “Our estimates indicate that over four years the network effects could range from zero to 270,000 jobs over four years (approximately 67,500 jobs per year), although anecdotal evidence would point to the lower end of this range,” says Katz.

Separately, a new study by an economics professor Gabriel Calzada of  Juan Carlos University in Madrid says Spanish government spending on green energy to boost job creation kills 2.2 jobs for every green-collar job it creates. The damage could be even worse, the study says, if job destruction from companies fleeing Spain’s higher energy prices were included, he argues. 

What the study says is that government spending on renewable energy is less than half as efficient at job creation as private-sector spending. Specifically, each green job required on average 571,000 euros, compared with 259,000 euros in “average capital per worker” in the rest of the economy. In other words, more jobs could have been created had the money been spent in other ways. 

Some people might not consider "opportunity cost" (spending on one thing means money can't be spent on an alternative good) to be a real cost. One has to make a judgment cost about whether twice as many new jobs, were money invested another way, a better outcome. 

One can always quibble, perhaps even vehemently disagree, about economic studies. But all actions in economic life do represent choices: spending one way precludes spending another way. Businesses that can't make money die. I doubt it is possible to find many, if any, people who argue we should not extend broadband to every household and business, even if doing so will cost some jobs, as well as create some others. 

Few people, if any, will argue the United States should not achieve energy independence. But every positive step in that direction will have implications in other areas. Some forms of alternative energy consume vast quantities of water, a key issue in the western United States. Plants grown for energy raise food prices, globally. As there are no free lunches, there are no positive steps we can take that do not involve some negative consequences as well. Those consequences always should be part of the decision making process.

Cord Cutting Growing, But Landlines Relatively Stable: Why?

Switched access lines provided by telcos in the United States have decreased by 17 million lines from 2005 to 2008 and telcos will lose another 10 million by 2011, says Patrick Monaghan, Yankee Group senior analyst.


You might think that is caused by users dumping their landlines in favor of mobile-only service.
But Monaghan doesn't think wireless substitution explains much of the incumbent line loss. In fact, he says, residential home phone service has only experienced a two-percent year-over-year loss from 2005 to 2008.

That's something on the order of five million subscribers. His conclusion: Most consumers are not cutting the cord. They simply are choosing cable or other providers.

There's one other important data point. Business lines in service have grown slightly over that same time period. Paradoxically, cord cutting has increased at the same time that fixed voice lines have held about level.

All of that is hard to square with estimates that 13 to 16 percent of U.S. homes already are wireless-only.  The logical inference is that higher numbers of households headed by younger people are wireless only, at the same time that business use of fixed voice is up a bit and consumer use is down a bit.

An impressionistic example: as my four children headed off to college, my own household dropped one landline and added one mobile account, but now there are four more wireless-only "households" out there.

Monday, April 13, 2009

Broadband Stimulus: Mapping Isn't the Issue for Rural Areas

Some people argue that the broadband stimulus funds should not be spent until we have better mapping to tell us where the problems are. People at the local level know where the unserved areas are.

You never will ever meet a rural telco or rural cable operator that isn't painfully aware of locations where broadband isn't available by wire.  Small communities aren't like big metro areas. People know each other, and that goes for anybody charged with providing broadband services using wires.

"Underserved" is a different matter. First you have to decide what that means, and what causes it. In some cases, lack of money, lack of PCs or lack of interest or knowledge are big issues there.

But lack of knowledge isn't the hold up in rural areas. Local people know where they need to get. Let them get there.

Consumers Want Choice: Will They Get it?

There's no question but that the central value multi-channel video services provide is "more choice."

Up to this point, industry economics have worked fairly well. Distributors have been able to build sustainable businesses delivering more choice, adding more niche channels to a basic tier.

As recurring fees continue to increase, resistance will grow, some believe. Analysts at the Diffusion Group, for example, say more consumers are unhappy than happy about having to buy a bundle of channels to get access to the relative few they actually watch.

An argument can be made that any move to full a la carte buying will reduce choice, as most smaller networks will not be able to create advertising revenue streams under such a regime.

You will know a tipping point has been reached when the first major network decides it can forego exclusive distributor carriage. That tipping point still seems relatively far off, though. It is hard to see any change from the current bundled offerings that is anywhere close to revenue neutral, even for the largest networks. Small networks will be hurt by a la carte.

http://asktdg.com/blogs/tdg-opinions/archive/2009/04/10/paytv-operators-must-embrace-expanded-consumer-choice-that-is-if-they-hope-to-avoid-becoming-dumb-pipe-providers.aspx

Broadband Stimulus "Ts and Cs" Might be Decisive

There's lots of speculation about whether large telcos will apply for American Recovery and Reinvestment projects to be sponsored by the National Telecommunications & Information Administration portion of the act. Much depends on the definitions and strings.

Though the precise meaning of "underserved," "unserved" and "broadband" are important, other apparently smaller matters, such as wholesale obligations, could be decisive. Carriers large or small are unlikely to apply if it means any new infrastructure, or an entire network, would be subject to mandatory wholesale rules, beyond those already in force.

At the moment, nobody can be sure what those terms and conditions might be.

http://www.dailytech.com/Broadband+Firms+Waiting+to+Apply+for+Stimulus+Funds/article14840.htm

Broadband Stimulus: Internal Contradictions

Not that it really will matter, but among the more-obvious internal tensions built into the "broadband stimulus" provisions of the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act is the difference between "create jobs" and "create broadband." ARRA is supposed to be about jobs, broadband is secondary.

The other obvious intellectual inconsistency is the preference for non-profit applicants for the National Telecommunications & Information Administration program, with the concomitant preference for projects that can be self-sustaining after program funds are exhausted.

The logical way to create self-sustaining capabilities is to allow for-profit entities to create a business case, and then fill a need by building new broadband infrastructure, or by creating other enabling mechanisms to encourage greater use or greater speeds and capabilities.

But that would be business logic, not political logic. There is a logic to political rationality. It just isn't the same thing as business rationality.

UC: Video as Lead App

Of late, unified communications has been as much about conferencing as anything else, despite all the effort that continues to be made to position unified communications as a "super category" that includes elements of phone systems, messaging, desktop and mobile communications.

UC integrator U4EA Technologies, for example, now has a partnership with Vidtel. By combining U4EA’s Fusion series Multi-service Business Gateways (MSBG) with Vidtel’s new video calling and conferencing services, the two companies hope to ensure video call quality and the fully utilization of WAN bandwidth.

U4EA says it is the only QoS technology specifically designed to support unified communications, including video applications.

Mobile and Proximity Marketing Won't Avoid Typical Mistakes

Every new medium inevitably begins life as a new way of doing something that already exists. Mobile marketing, proximity marketing and other location-based media will not escape this pattern, either. Still, practitioners seem more widely attuned to the idea that conversations are the perhaps-uniquely new aspect of mobile marketing. In fact, facilitating conversations might be the most significant new development for practitioners whose traditional mission has been to position and sell things.

http://ow.ly/2Guv

In Stadium Proximity Communications Now Available

One of the chief advantages mobile devices possess, compared to more location-based devices such as PCs, is locational: mobiles are with users virtually all the time. That means proximity communications and marketing, though developing, hold so much promise. Consider sporting venues, where all sorts of undesirable behavior can, and does, occur.

So In Stadium Solutions provides messaging capabilities in sports and other entertainment venues allowing attendees to send messages directly to stadium medical or security personnel.

http://www.instadiumsolutions.com/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=44&Itemid=53

iPhone, BlackBerry Downloads: Different Pattern?

Games lead iPhone app downloads, comScore reports. Nearly half of the the 25 most popular mobile apps are games. Among non-gaming applications, social networking applications: Facebook and MySpace Mobile also can be found. So far, at least, the iPhone, though used by business end users, does not seem to have broken out of its "consumer" appeal base.

Research in Motion's BlackBerry App World has not been in operation long enough to determine whether BlackBerry users behave differently, but at least initially, one suspects that social networking apps are among the top 10, whether that is Facebook or instant messaging clients. One perhaps notable difference is downloads of the Opera Mini browser, for perhaps-obvious reasons. BlackBerry users tend not to rave about the default BlackBerry browser.

http://ir.comscore.com/releasedetail.cfm?ReleaseID=375787

Sunday, April 12, 2009

New Rules for Marketing

Listening to consumers is more important than talking at them, says Advertising Age. "The consumer is not a moron, she's the person defining your brand."

You can't hide the corporation behind the brand anymore, or even fully separate the two. Radical transparency now means bad corporate behavior will damage subsidiary brands, while good behavior also can help subsidiary brands.

Public relations now is a primary concern for every chief marketing officer and brand manager. If "marketing" and "PR" are not the same department, tear down the wall. Spend time deciding whether PR is underleveraged in your organization, says Advertising Age.

Cause marketing isn't about philanthropy, it's about "enlightened self-interest."

Social media is not a strategy in and of itself. Nothing will substitutute for good products.

Business Wireless Spending to Accelerate

Some 45 percent of business decision makers polled by Harris Interactive state that wireless applications are important or absolutely essential to remaining competitive in today’s highly competitive marketplace. The survey of 700 small, medium and large businesses found the companies surveyed expect a 15 percent improvement in their bottom-line over the next 12 months.

Improved communications were seen by 23 percent of respondents. About 18 percent expect improved employee efficiency. Another 14 percent expect productivity and process improvements. An equal percentage expect improved customer care. About 11 percent expect cost reductions.

Whether one agrees or not, respondents indicate that, for whatever reasons, they are increasing their wireless spend. The survey shows the wireless portion of the companies’ voice and data infrastructure increasing from 35 percent over the last twelve months to 41 percent over the next twelve months, an increase of nearly 20 percent.

http://www.ctia.org/media/press/body.cfm/prid/1813

Sprint Proximity Marketing Campaign Launched

Sprint is supporting a proximity marketing campaign at Kansas City's Sprint Center.

http://billboard.prweb.com/releases/2009/03/prweb2269584.htm

Proximity Marketing for "Fast and Furious"

Interactive trailers for the movie "Fast and Furious" are available for download free-of-charge to Bluetooth enabled mobile phones at select cinemas and other public locations throughout Germany. The interactive trailers offer the mobile viewer a one-click access to "Fast and Furious" sweepstakes contest and allows them to purchase movie tickets for upcoming screenings of the film in select cinema chains in Germany.

http://sev.prnewswire.com/advertising/20090331/SF9150631032009-1.html

DMA Bluetooth Marketing Guidelines Released

New mobile marketing guidelines for Bluetooth campaigns have been developed by the Direct Marketing Association for the U.K. and other markets, and are designed to protect users from "spam." Good move.

http://www.dma.org.uk/_attachments/resources/4756_S4.pdf

Bluetooth-Based Mobile Marketing Campaigns

Though most mobile marketing campaigns up to this point have been based on use of text messaging (short message service), more common availability of Bluetooth also offers an opportunity for proximity messages over short distances, without the expense of the data network, says Mark Brill, Direct Marketing Association Mobile Marketing Council chairman.

That means creating a local Bluetooth zone at a physical location with high traffic, such as restaurants, public transit stations, bars or retail locations, able to reach users within a relatively confined area of possibly 260 feet in diameter.

"The key to a successful Bluetooth proximity marketing campaign is to provide a clear incentive or offer, explain why you are communicating and gain the trust of the user," he says.

About 30 percent of people have their Bluetooth turned on all of the time, mostly to use hands-free headsets. The TV show "Lost" has used such a technique to promote the new season by allowing users to download wallpaper and ringtones, images or a trailer.

Bacardi Rum has used Bluetooth at music festivals, sending drink vouchers and allowing users to send their own photos and messages to a large screen at an event.

Levi’s Jeans has equipped personnel with backpacks equipped with Bluetooth units and small screens.

Still, there are issues. A Bluetooth connection to a mobile does not provide the marketer with a phone number or user information, so tracking a user requires some form of registration. As always, opt-in rules are needed as well.

http://www.mycustomer.com/cgi-bin/item.cgi?id=134286

Saturday, April 11, 2009

Mobile Fusion: Mobile Rendering on the Fly

MoFuse, or Mobile Fusion, is a Web application that allows a user or company to easily and instantly create a mobile version of a blog or Web site.

If a blog or site has an RSS feed, MoFuse will use that as the main source of content for a new mobile site. The advantages are obvious. Content creators can continue to create "PC" sites and MoFuse will do the translations. MoFuse also can create static content pages.

http://fuelingnewbusiness.com/2008/08/28/mobile-marketing-for-advertising-agencies/

Best New Google Voice Feature: Visual Voicemail

Some of us prefer text messages of any sort to voice messages of any sort. So the best new feature of Google Voice, compared to GrandCentral, is the automatic speech-to-text feature, so now I read my "voice" mails, instead of "listening" to them. Very useful.

Mobile Marketing Growth: Inevitable Result of Mobile Web

There's a simple reason so many executives and practitioners now are exploring mobile marketing: Industry executives widely believe mobile computing devices will be the "primary" Internet access device for most people, globally, by 2020.

More than three quarters of the expert respondents (77 percent) recently surveyed by the Pew Internet & American Life Project said they agreed with a
scenario that posited that the mobile computing device will be the primary Internet communications platform for a majority of people across the world by 2020.

Advertising Hits Tipping Point; Mobile Video Hasn't

It is probably worth noting, with significant attention focused on substitution of mobile and Internet video for traditional packaged multi-channel video, that there's lots of activity, money and attention focused on substitution of other services such as advertising.

And advertising already is at an inflection point: video isn't there yet. That's important for anybody who thinks they may have a chance to build a business based on changes in user behavior.

And inflection points are crucial. Move too early and you die. Move too late and you miss the opportunity.

The analogy: assume firms have a chance to establish themselves when water turns to ice or to steam. Since most major changes in established markets do not occur overnight, the analogy is a gradually rising or falling temperature. For a long time, it appears as though not much is happening.

But then the quantum change occurs. Almost instantly, water changes to gas or forms ice.

That's pretty much what happened to the U.S. newspaper business in early 2009: an accumulation of decades worth of changes produced a quantum change. Video is not there yet. Advertising is, in at least one segment of the business.

Since the tipping point has been reached, we should expect change at a faster rate than has been happening.

Skype Founders Want to Buy it Back

Skype's founders are said to be raising money to buy Skype back from eBay. They sold it for $3.1 billion and eBay appears to want $1.7 billion. Aside from the obvious deal economics, Skype's founders have gone almost nowhere with their follow-on video business.

EU Likely to Force Mobile Providers to Permit Skype Use

The European Union (EU) reportedly is preparing to force mobile providers to allow use of VoIP services including Skype over their networks, a move that would not be unexpected. EU Telecoms Commissioner Viviane Reding recently reemphasized her opposition to application blocking of this sort, and that tends to signal action by the EU.

Deutsche Telekom's T-Mobile unit currently blocks Skype access from Apple iPhones, for example, though access is possible using Wi-Fi, roughly the same policy AT&T uses.

It is understandable that mobile providers are not anxious to put themselves out of business. But VoIP blocking just isn't the right thing to do.

Friday, April 10, 2009

DirecTV Sees No Signs of Consumer Retrenchment

Despite the widespread conventional wisdom that consumers "must be" dropping a wide variety of communications and entertainment services, the most-recent DirecTV Group Inc. financial results do not support the thesis. DirecTV added 301,000 net subscribers in the fourth quarter of 2008, the most net subs it has added in more than three years.

DirecTV also had what it called its "best year ever," as the company added 861,000 net new customers in 2008. Net subscriber additions of 301,000 in the fourth quarter were nearly 10 percent higher than last year's fourth quarter.

We'll have to see what the company reports for the first quarter of 2009.

Investment Incentives Key for National Broadband Plan, McDowell Says

As part of the recently passed American Recovery and Reinvestment Act of 2009 ("stimulus package"), the Federal Communications Commission must create a national broadband plan.

Commissioner Robert McDowell says “it is essential that our plan give current and prospective broadband network and service providers the proper incentives to deploy new technologies."

"We must also provide entrepreneurs with the flexibility to make full use of all available spectrum, including the television white spaces, to backhaul broadband traffic," McDowell says. "In order to attract investors to fund the build-out of new networks, we must not engage in rulemakings that produce whimsical regulatory arbitrage."

"Rather, we must allow market players to succeed or fail on their own merits and not due to the government picking winners and losers," McDowell says. "In short, our rules must allow network operators to have a reasonable opportunity to pay back their investors. That’s the only way to improve existing networks and build new ones.”

Broadband is Partly an Availability Problem; Partly a Demand Problem

"Predominantly, even in contexts with reliable supply of broadband, it is consumer demand for broadband that is the tallest barrier to adoption and represents America’s competitive vulnerability," says Connected Nation.

It might be worth keeping that in mind as plans for the broadband stimulus program operated by the National Telecommunications & Administration and Agriculture Department's "broadband stimulus" rules are finalized.

There clearly is a physical access problem in rural areas (at least in terms of wired access: though some locations may not have clear line of sight, multiple providers of satellite access are available, and it is possible to supply speeds up to perhaps 5 Mbps using satellite), but broadband availability is not the same problem as lack of adoption. In fact, people have lots of reasons not to buy services they already have access to.

The largest barrier to broadband adoption is a lack of awareness about broadband’s benefits, Connected Nation says. Nearly one-half (44 percent) of those with no home broadband connection say “I don’t need broadband.”

Likewise, the top barrier to computer ownership is also a perceived lack of need. Nearly two-thirds
(62 percent) of those who do not own a computer say “I don’t need a computer,” Connected Nation says.

In other cases, perceived cost is an issue. Nearly one fourth (24 percent) of those who do not own a computer cite the up-front cost as a barrier. Similarly, nearly one-fourth of those without a home broadband connection say broadband is too expensive.

Four out of ten parents with children who are without a home computer see no need for having a computer in the home. And nearly one-third (30 percent) of parents with children who do not have a home broadband connection see no need for a broadband connection.

More than one half (56 percent) of people with disabilities who do not own a computer see no need for having a computer in the home. Four out of ten people with disabilities who do not have a home broadband connection see no need for a broadband connection, Connected Nation says.

Close to one half (42 percent) of rural residents without a home broadband connection say it is because they do not need broadband. This compares with 19 percent of these rural residents who say they do not subscribe because broadband service is not available in their area.

Additionally, 22 percent of these rural residents say broadband is too expensive.

Internet Video Complementary to Cable, Satellite and Telco Video, Study Indicates

Fears that the recession will encourage more and more people to drop cable or satellite TV service and rely on free online video services appear to be exaggerated, Pike & Fischer researchers say. Some might say grossly exaggerated. In a recent survey, less than half of one percent of respondents indicated they would cancel a multi-channel video subscription.

That said, about 15 percent of respondents said they intend to downgrade to a lower-priced video subscription this year, through such means as giving up premium channels. Both the findings are consistent with consumer behavior in past economic recessions.

Typically, consumers hang on to their subscriptions and do not disconnect. They do however tend to downgrade premium services or postpone upgrades.

About eight percent of respondents said they plan to upgrade their service to receive expanded numbers of channels or advanced services such as high-definition TV.

Although there are no signs yet that the Web is on its way to replacing traditional TV, a substantial number of respondents said they are turning to the Web to watch video, Pike & Fischer says. About 32 percent of respondents to the survey said they regularly watch video from Web sites such as Hulu, YouTube and iTunes.

"The results indicate that consumers appear to be willing to continue paying for cable or satellite TV, despite the fact that they can get a vast amount of shows for free or very low cost on services like Hulu and Veoh," says Scott Sleek, Pike & Fischer director. "But they don't appear to be willing to spend any extra money for premium channels or on-demand movies. And they're increasingly willing to go to the Internet to watch their favorite shows."

Thursday, April 9, 2009

Telco of the Future is a Software Company

"The telco of the next five years has to be a software company," says John Lazar, MetaSwitch CEO. That statement is rich with implications for business strategy, organization, investment and priorities, but must at least incorporate the ability to "create and tear down" whole applications, service or features very rapidly, without labor-intensive physical processes. That's why MetaSwitch believes in IP Multimedia Subsystem.

The meaning does not extend as far as the notion that access networks and a range of services related to voice, data and video services will be unnecessary. What Lazar means is that since nobody really can predict what the killer app of the future is, providers simply must have the ability to react quickly when users suggest demand exists for any application that benefits from network access.  

And the access and services platform has to transcend silos. "You have to innovate quickly and build links between things," says Lazar. "Things you don't expect will stick," he notes, reminding people that  "nobody predicted SMS (text messaing) would be the huge success it hsa turned out to be."

But addressing both the current recessionary climate, which has nearly everybody reacting caustiously, Lazar also warned that some "people are not thinking ambitiously enough." There are opportunities to be seized, but action is necessary. And Lazar predicts innovators will do well in this recession.

There are constraints, to be sure. "Damn the dollars, full speed ahead" may not be a strategy many firms can embrace. But keep in mind: when somebody, or a company, says "something can't be done," you have to translate.

What the speaker means is that "I, or my organization, for a host of very-real reasons, cannot do it." That is different than saying something really cannot be done.

Other speakers may well say "something is possible, and can be done," because they do not have barriers of one sort or another that prevent them from doing something others say "cannot be done."

Over the next five years, people will do things that "cannot be done." They will be done for one simple reason. Despite a host of reasons why one contestant says something "cannot be done," others will operate without those constraints.

Mobile Broadband PC Data Card Growth Decelerates

Mobile broadband PC card accounts continued to grow in the fourth quarter of 2008, but at a much-reduced rate compared to the prior six quarters, researchers at comScore say. But it is a product that continues to have an enviable growth pattern.

PC data card adoption grew 163 percent overall in 2008, slightly ahead of the 157 percent growth rate in 2007. However, despite this rapid adoption curve, fourth-quarter growth showed the first signs of decelerating growth. On a quarter over quarter basis, the subscriber growth fell to just five percent, following sequential growth of 22 percent in the third quarter of 2008.

One can speculate about the reasons for the slower growth rate, but one obvious explanation is a deceleration of employment, reducing the number of users whose consumption is subsidized by their employers. Add to the that the slowing economy, and one probably has all the explanation one requires.

Consumer users might also be choosing to access the mobile Web using their smart phones, as a data plan already is required, and the logic of paying for another subscription plan to access the Internet and Web applications probably is unattractive.

PC Data Cards Cannibalize Landline Usage

Researchers at comScore say PC-based mobile broadband usage largely displaces tethered PC Internet usage. That is not to say wireless broadband is displacing fixed broadband, but only to note that most users do not spend more time online overall, when both mobile and fixed modes are available.

Looking at total hours of use in the fourth quarter of 2008, comScore found that the U.S. Internet user spent 90 hours online, or roughly one hour a day. Users who had both fixed and mobile broadband access spent 89 hours online during the quarter, using mobile or fixed access.

Of PC data card users with both a PC data card and a wired connection, 25 percent of their total online time (22 hours) was spent using a PC data card.

The rather clear implication is that PC mobile broadband is a substitute for fixed access, and does not increase the amount of time the typical user spends online.

There are some obvious implications. Over time, the typical user will start to see broadband access as something they have, irrespective of network. They will start to see this as a value that is measured against the cost of satisfying that need.

They probably are going to approach this as "broadband access is worth X dollars to me every month." They are not going to indefinitely pay for multiple accounts, supporting a single device, much less multiple accounts supporting multiple devices, forever.

The logic likely will parallel the way some wireless-only users behave. They simply decide that the ability to talk and text is worth some finite amount of money, and conclude that paying for that capability twice does not make sense. So they drop landline voice service and use some of that money to pay for heavier mobile usage.

Overall spend probably doesn't change much. As with so much else these days, consumers are willing to switch behavior when functionally equivalent products are available, and when use of those products costs no more than what they already spend, or costs less.

http://www.comscore.com/press/release.asp?press=2771

Wednesday, April 8, 2009

More Qualms About Broadband Stimulus: This Time From Small Rural Telcos

Large U.S. telcos have their doubts about whether it will make any sense at all to apply for any funds under the National Telecommunications & Information Administration's portion of "broadband stimulus" funds, and generally are barred from applying under the Rural Utilities Service rules.

It appears small, independent, rural telcos have similar qualms. Attendees at a MetaSwitch Forum workshop on the broadband stimulus plan were shaking their heads in disbelief about "strings" attached to receipt of funds under the RUS plan, in particular the nebulous language about investments in access that allow multiple providers to compete.

Depending on how the final rules shape up, it is conceivable that most telcos and cable companies will decide not to participate directly.

Twitter Adoption Surprises: Business Users Key

Twitter already seems to have been embraced as a business tool, new user data from comScore suggests.

You would expect the highest Twitter adoption by the youngest users. But that does not seem to be the case. Instead, older age cohorts are heavier users.

Analysts at comScore think business users explain the pattern. For whatever reason, business users seem to be acting as though Twitter and other micro-blogging tool have immediate business value.

Titanic Battle Shaping Up over Broadband

As busy as people are trying to prepare for the imminent opening of the first of three proposal submission windows for funds authorized by the American Reinvestment and Recovery Act ("broadband stimulus"), a bigger food fight will begin to break out next year as the Federal Communications Commission opens a new rule-making on a national broadband strategy. As much attention as the broadband stimulus program is getting, it is going to be dwarfed by any new framework that emerges from the FCC effort.

The stimulus money is a temporary "shot in the arm." In fact, some question whether there will be much of any long-term impact from the majority of the money that ultimately is allocated, in jobs, an identifiable uptick in broadband use or economic growth.

Any new national broadband policy will reshape the broadband marketplace, creating new winners and losers on the supplier and reshaping the financial terrain for existing and would-be contestants, in ways that contribute "in a material way," to use the financial term, to the health of virtually all service providers, software and hardware suppliers.

Specifically, the FCC now is charged, by statute, to determine how tax dollars will be spent on deploying and upgrading Internet access across the United States. Telcos large and small--and their suppliers--have huge stakes in how those rules are recast. And make no mistake: current business models, revenue streams and company valuations are at stake.

The FCC's responsibility is also to update policies and regulations that have conspicuously failed to keep pace with changes in communications technologies and the different ways in which the US public actually get their phone, cable TV and Internet services.

It would not be overstating the case to say we will witness the biggest single change to U.S. communications regulation since either the 1934 Communications Act, or the Telecom Act of 1996, each of which has been foundational for shaping the U.S. communications environment.

As some of us have been arguing for a half decade or more, it is likely that regulators will be looking at greater structural change involving a form of structural or functional separation, developments which already have occurred in Europe and now are happening in Southeast Asia, and which has happened on a small scale in the United States as well, principally in Rochester, N.Y., where Rochester Telephone agreed to form a new wholesale access company providing local loop services to all licensed providers.

That move will be fiercely resisted by most telcos, you can be sure, as it formally breaks up the vertically-integrated model historically the mainstay in the U.S. market. Cable operators have to worry that they will, for the first time, also be forced to provide widespread wholesale access to competitors as well, something the cable industry always has opposed but which will be hard to avoid if other key providers are required to do so.

Small telcos face equally-large challenges, as a shift to broadband concerns might necessarily reshape rural investment rules in ways that directly harm the existing voice revenue support many hundreds of companies now rely on to support their firms. For hundreds of independent and rural companies, that government support is the single largest income category, vastly outstripping actual direct end user revenues.

The other potential changes are new requirements for minimum bandwidth, control of network management practices and a wide variety of business-model-shaping changes.

If you have any familiarity with the on-going disputes about universal service funds, or the intense pressure created by the debates leading up to the Telecom Act, you have some idea of what is about to happen.

Oddly enough, you will find widespread sentiment that the Telecom Act failed. But you will not find many human beings that believe their own choices, value or communications richness now are worse than they were before the Act was passed. What is clear is the foundational impact any rules changes will have on competitor fortunes. Still, an early prediction: no matter what ultimately happens, no matter which sectors claim they have "won or lost," end users will have richer options than before, with or without rules changes. But rules changes are inevitable.

Tuesday, April 7, 2009

Comcast to Use Smarter Phones to Enhance Wired Experience

Devices increasingly are key as service providers seek to add value to their wired and wireless experiences. "Compelling end user devices are definitely part of the story," says Chris Mairs, MetaSwitch CTO.

So it comes as no surprise that Comcast plans to roll out new cordless phones that add email and other Internet features, as Verizon is doing as well.

http://www.lightreading.com/document.asp?doc_id=174853&site=cdn

Conference Calls Really Do Need Live Blogging

Seth is right: conference sessions are more valuable--or can be, when a large call is in process--when there is a live blogging or chat function.

http://sethgodin.typepad.com/seths_blog/2009/04/reinventing-the-conference-call.html

More Signs of Prepaid Wireless Surge

MetroPCS added more than 1.5 milion gross customers in the first quarter of 2009, up 59 percent over the same point a year ago, and 684,000 customers after accounting for quarterly churn of five percent.

The growth suggests one thing: more wireless users are keeping their mobile service, but downgrading to prepaid plans. We can make a couple of observations: despite fears, wireless is now so embedded in user lives that it cannot be dispensed with.

On the other hand, there are ways to satisfy that need at lower cost, and consumers are taking that option.

Australia to build $31 Billion Fiber to Home Network

The Australian government is moving ahead with a $31 billion national broadband network that will operate on a structurally separated, wholesale-only basis, with all licensed retail providers able to buy and use the network. The network aims to connect 90 percent of Australian homes with service at speeds up to 100 Mbps. 

Every private company bid submitted in any earlier tender process earlier had been rejected by the Australian government as inadequate.

Instead, a public-private partnership will be commissioned to construct the network, with provatization planned for five years after network operations begin. But construction might take seven to eight years, so it will be some time before an privatization event occurs. 

The network would operate on a wholesale-only, open access basis, separating retail operations and allowing Optus, Telstra and other companies to build services into the system.

Telstra, though, will not be barred from applying to manage the wholesale network, once built. In some ways, the scrapping of the original plan might be positive for Telstra, which now will face for the first time a high-speed optical fiber network that virtually any other retail competitor can use. 

The upside is that although Telstra might not savor the new and more-competitive marketplace, it might be able to salvage a role as the wholesale operator, even as it has to compete as a retail provider buying access from the wholesale entity. 

There are other, shorter-term sub-plots as well. One is the mix of motives, from economic stimulation and job creation, that are blending with the concrete goal of creating a broadband platform; as well as the issue of how well the plan will work out in terms of end user pricing, which affects the ability to raise investment capital to build the network in the first place.

Still, the move potentially ends the stalemate that has prevented Australia from moving ahead on badly-needed broadband upgrades that have been stalled by inability of regulators and policymakers to come up with a solution acceptable to Telstra, the national incumbent. 

Monday, April 6, 2009

IM Most Popular French Online Activity

French Internet users in February 2009 spent more time uisng instant messaging than any other application, including email. Instant messaging claimed the highest share of total time spent at 14.3 percent, followed by social networking at 5.7 percent, say comScofre.  In combination, the two categories accounted for one out of every five minutes spent online during the month. 

Online entertainment accounted for 8.6 percent of time spent and online gaming 2.9 percent share of total time spent online. 




Wireless "Net Neutrality" Will Lead to Higher Prices

There's a sort of inescapable logic to what wireless network access providers will do if or when mobile VoIP applications are freely enabled, as some policy proponents advocate. Since the entire business model rests on voice revenues, the loss of those revenues will be compensated for in the form of higher mobile broadband access prices.

Existing best-effort plans might be the baseline. But new plans optimized for voice, or conferencing, or other applications, might well emerge. Of course, optimizing might violate some notions of "net neutrality," unless optimizing is available to any provider of voice over a mobile IP network, in which case it might not be a neutrality violation.

But those optimizing services will be an add-on.

You might argue providers can create replacement revenues some other way: selling content or advertising, for example. But the numbers don't work. Build your own spreadsheet and you'll figure that out. There is no conceivable new revenue stream that replaces voice revenues "one for one."

After some years of watching what happens in a robust, mandatory wholesale environment, even European regulators are starting to see what happens. Service providers start spending their money outside the home market, where financial returns are higher.

Investors aren't dumb. Businesses with low growth and margin prospects get less investment than competing alternatives promising a higher return. The current capital stringency is bad enough. Wait until you see a capital strike.

Sunday, April 5, 2009

Enterprise Twitter is Coming, Gartner Says

Analysts at Gartner predict that micro-blogging tools such as Twitter will be widely available in enterprise versions, and will be used in four ways.

Firms will use Twitter as a marketing or public relations channel, using them as part of wider corporate communications strategies such as corporate blogs.

Firms will tweet about corporate accomplishments, provide links to press releases or promotional Web sites, and respond to other tweets about the brand. Inevitably, some firms will "overreach" and publish uninteresting or obviously self-serving tweets.

Employees also will use Twitter or other micro-blogging applications to enhance and extend their personal reputations, thereby enhancing the company's reputation, Gartner says. Employees will enhance their personal reputations by attracting followers who go on to read their blogs.

As people enhance their personal brands, some of this inevitably rubs off on their employers, says Gartner.

Employees use the platform to communicate about what they are doing, projects they are working on and ideas that occur to them, though Gartner does not recommend this, for security reasons.

Inbound signaling also will be a value for firms, which will find micro-blogging posts a rich source of information about what customers, competitors and others are saying about a company.

Communications Still Trumps Entertainment


Getting ready for an upcoming presentation, I've been thinking about the relative value of entertainment services, as compared to voice and data applications.

As important as video is for a telecom provider's business case, as well as its foundational role for satellite and cable companies, my thinking has been that voice and data apps of various sorts have been, and likely will be, more important for firms with roots in the telecom business.

Part of the argument rests on profit margin. Cable and satellite providers can assume they will have high margins. Attackers tend to find more-modest margins, in part because of scale economies that favor providers with high penetration.

Telecom providers tend to see higher margins on voice and data services.

Revenue opportunity also plays a part. The voice and data business simply is far larger than the video entertainment business. Depending on how one categorizes the business, the voice and data service business is twice to three times bigger than video services business.

With the advent of Web and IP-based communications, including email, text messaging, instant messaging and "non-traditional" communication modes such as micro-blogging, blogging, I'd argue the centrality of "communications" has grown, even for activities that might arguably be considered "media" or "content."

Consider that social networking among U.S. broadband users has grown 93 percent since 2006, and has increased the amount of time people spend  communicating online 18 percent, to 32 percent of total online time, according to Netpop Research.

As online communications has increased, the time spent on traditional forms of online entertainment has declined 29 percent, and is now down to 19 percent of total online time.

Video is important; just not as important as voice and data. Communications remains more important than entertainment, at least for firms with a telecom rather than entertainment orientation.

Bandwidth is YouTube's Main Cost Driver

YouTube still hasn't figured out a sustainable business model. Ad revenue is the objective, but
most of YouTube's content remains outside the category of "inventory."  Credit Suisse analysts estimate that YouTube will bring in about $240 million in revenue in 2009, mostly provided by home page  placement ads and in-video overlays and adjacencies.

Credit Suisse estimates that YouTube generates approximately $86.7 million a year on homepage placement ads, or about $7 million per month.

In-video ads and banner adjancencies contribute another $87 million, according to the analyst estimates. Sponsored videos ($37.1 million) and sponsored links ($30.1 million) also contribute to YouTube's revenues.

On the cost side, Credit Suisse estimates that Google spends $711 million in operating expenses related to YouTube. Those costs include bandwidth, content acquisition, partner revenue shares, site overhead, and storage.

The biggest expense for YouTube is bandwidth, as you might guess, as YouTube streams about five million videos a month. That costs YouTube about  $360 million a year, or $1 million a day. Keep in mind that observers believe Google pays about half the the lowest "market" rate for
bandwidth.

And Google gradually is assuming some roles more analogous to a traditional network. Credit Suisse estimates that YouTube will pay $260 million in content acquisition costs in 2009.

And despite the estimation that YouTube buys its bandwidth at discounts as high as 50 percent of the lowest "market rates," bandwidth still is the biggest sunk cost.

General overhead represents about $24 million worth of 2009 cost. Storage costs $12.7 million a year.

Saturday, April 4, 2009

Media at the Tipping Point

IP doesn't just reshape the telecommunications, video entertainment and advertising businesses. It reshapes the rest of the media as well. This trend has been underway for decades, but the tipping point has been reached.

http://247wallst.com/2009/03/24/ten-major-newspapers-that-will-fold-or-go-digital-an-update/

Trade Show Blues

As somebody who spends lots of time at industry trade shows, I'd have to say the temporary economy-induced decline in attendance at virtually all major industry meetings is not the biggest problem. There's less real news or value at these venues than there used to be, in part because information moves with the speed of Twitter and the Web.

That doesn't mean these venues are not important for some attendees. They're still valuable for sales people meeting with prospects in suites, away from the sessions and exhibits. But trade shows now seem to be less mission critical for lots of participants in the ecosystem, if only because the industry is developing other ways of replicating the marketplace functions trade shows and industry media once were a larger part of.

Webinars, podcasts, Web conferences, user group meetings, channel partners, Google and Twitter, Real Simple Syndication, blogs, wikis, even email and YouTube, are rival conversation channels.

Attendance likely will pick up again once the recession is over. But I have greater doubts that the value and effectiveness of the bigger industry meetings will improve.

That doesn't mean all "live meetings" are in this bucket. The more-specialized meetings provide more value, at least from my perspective. A few new or emerging venues have "buzz." EComm stands out in that regard.

But it is the "user group" venues that have, over the last couple of years, started to assume more importance, at least from my perspective. The Voice Peering Forum and MetaSwitch Forum, for example, have been quite useful.

So I've been spending much more time at user group meetings. That's where service and application providers are most concentrated and most easy to engage in conversation. That, after all, is why many of us attend such meetings.

Friday, April 3, 2009

Grudging Embrace of Skype, Other IP Providers is Rational, If Maddening

Major U.S. carriers haven't been happy about the emergence of Skype and other third-party VOIP clients, which threaten to undermine the global industry revenue model.

One can hardly blame them for not rapidly embracing new technology that threatens to bankrupt them, anymore than politicians will embrace being voted out of office by more attractive candidates, labor unions will embrace automation or outsourcing,  accountants and attorneys will get excited about really-simple tax codes or Microsoft is happy about effective and free operating systems and business productivity suites.

Nor can one blame VoIP enthusiasts, application providers or users for wanting VoIP to work on whatever devices they typically use.

As VoIP gets better and better, more and more users are going to conclude tha all they really need from their service provider is good broadband. Someday, service providers will have weaned themselves off a reliance on voice revenues and found other business models that work as well, or better. In the interim, service providers will not move any faster than they have to.

So disputes are going to keep occurring.

The Free Press has asked the Federal Communications Commission to investigate whether or not the restriction of Skype use on AT&T Apple iPhones, except when in Wi-Fi access mode, is in violation of federal law.

The Voice on the Net coalition Europe, which includes Google, Microsoftand Intel, has asked European telecom regulators to ban blocking of VoIP apps on 3G networks an devices. T-Mobile Deutschland blocks use of Skype application on the iPhone, for example.

AT&T allows use of Skype when users are connected to Wi-Fi, rather than the 3G wireless broadband network. That's AT&T's way of not prohibiting use of the applications, but also not encouraging them to replace voice directly. Inability to control network quality sometimes is invoked as the reason for not encouraging Skype or over-the-top VoIP over the existing network.

Someday that will change. At some point all networks will be IP-only. For wireless providers, that generally coincides with the arrival of fourth-generation networks. For wired network providers, a switch to all-fiber or high-bandwidth digital subscriber line access (plus robust wholesale regulations) typically is the driver.

But so long as the entire network is supported by legacy voice, services providers are not going to encourage IP-based voice any more than they have to. Do you know any executives, at any company, in any industry, willing to put themselves out of business as fast as possible by enabling customers to avoid buying their products?


Google Trying to Buy Twitter?

Like it or not, Google seems to be the most-logical buyer. One can argue that Google could write an app that replicates Twitter.

But that's only part of the value Twitter, as opposed to any other micro-blogging and real-time search app anybody might produce.

Twitter has gone viral. It has mindshare. People like it and use it.  Sometimes that trumps every other consideration.

A sale to Google alleviates the need to  "find a business model." Google already has one.

And if one assumes Twitter always has been an acquisition candidate (for most firms the "going public" exit does not presently exist), then Google simply is the most-logical buyer. The value Twitter provides is congruent with the value other Google tools provide.

http://www.techcrunch.com/2009/04/02/sources-google-in-late-stage-talks-to-buy-twitter/

Thursday, April 2, 2009

Random VoiceCon Observations

Here's a set of fairly random observations from VoiceCon, ranging from "slow" return on IP telephony to "no return," as well as the usual cautions about buyer resistance. Joe Abate, Mounrt Kisco Medical Group director of IS says " I don’t think we’ve seen any productivity gains at all after deploying IP telephony. Ouch!

Conrad Cross, City of Orlando CIO, says he "expects the return on investment on the city's TDM-to-IP migration to take four to five years. Three years or less is what most buyers probably would want to see. Small businesses won't even be willing to wait that long, I'd guess.

But Gary Grissum, BNSF Railway VP Telecom, estimates that 40 percent of his company's workforce will retire in next few years, and unified communications might be a way to attract a new generation of workers. That's a big deal. Some of us have argued we need to see a change of buyer influences (younger, in other words) before we can really assess how far technology buyers are willing to shift their preferences.

Overheard a VAR mention that the problem with selling unified communications to smaller businesses is that they don't see the benefits, forget about the price. I'd say that has emerged over the last year or so as a key impediment. Buyers in the small business segment discount all "soft" gains such as productivity, less wasted time and unified message boxes. Really, you have to show them how they save money--hard dollars--right away.

Kevin Gavin at ShoreTel points out that the tough economy is focusing IP PBX buyers on return on investement, even more than typically is the case. Duh! Customers demand very-clear ROI before buying.

Wells Fargo to Replace 50% of Desk Phones

Karen Bailey, Wells Fargo director of voice services, says her firm plans to replace 50 percent of employee desk phones with soft clients and mobile phones.

Disney Willing to Challenge Video Ecosystem

Walt Disney Co. CEO Robert Iger is not so sure it is wise to tie consumption of online content to the purchase of a multi-channel video (specifically cable TV) subscription, though cable operators tend, for obvious reasons, to favor the idea.

Cable operators obviously dislike the idea that the content they sell in subscription packages might be found online, at no incremental cost. They like better the idea of being able to charge a bit extra to their subscribers to enable online viewing. Disney doesn't agree.

"Preventing people from watching any shows online, unless they subscribe to some multi-channel service could be viewed as both anti-consumer, and anti-technology, and would be something we would find difficult to embrace," Iger says.

Of course, Disney also was early to move its content to iTunes and to stream content over the Internet, and is seen as "more open" to the idea of allowing its content to be viewed in new ways.

Nor does Iger share the view that people who stream video frequently are substituting that behavior for multi-channel video. They are more apt to watch television, buy HDTV sets and subscribe to digital and premium services, Iger maintains.

That doesn't mean Disney is casually willing to jeopardize its multi-channel video distributor partners. It does mean the company is more open to side-loading, downloading and streaming.

Sprint Upgrades Cable Digital Voice

Sprint has added new features such as Caller ID to the TV, Caller ID to the PC, and new voicemail features that include a home voicemail alert sent to a customer's mobile phone, and voicemail to email, for its cable operator customers. Sprint provides wholesale cable VoIP services to 14 leading cable companies and supports more than 4.5 million cable VoIP/digital phone subscribers, covering more than 31 million cable households-passed.

Perhaps the development to note is that the innovations are "both practical and fun." "Fun" and "playfulness" and "personalization" are among elements that have made the mobile end user experience so popular. Wired phone service has always been useful, but not as much "fun."

The new features are ways cable operators will try to change the wired voice experience, beyond simply offering tradtional value at a lower price.

AT&T Tests New Bundle: Netbook, Wireless and Wired Broadband for $59.95 a Month

AT&T is testing its new netbook-plus-wireless broadband bundle in its Atlanta and Philadelphia markets, offering a ultra-portable netbook with built-in AT&T 3G wireless capabilities when bought with a $59.95 per month "Internet at Home and On the Go" broadband service that includes both at-home digital subscriber line service plus wireless broadband.

Mini laptops available in selected AT&T stores in Atlanta and Philadelphia include the Acer Aspire One, Dell Inspiron Mini 9 and Mini 12, and LG Xenia. Promotional prices range from $49.99 to $249.99 with the purchase of an "AT&T Internet at Home and On the Go" plan, which includes an AT&T DataConnect plan and AT&T Fast Access DSL, starting at $59.95 per month. Without those AT&T services, these mini laptops range in price from $449.99 to $599.99.

AT&T is offering two mobile DataConnect plans in the trial, including a 200 MByte plan for $40 per month and a 5 GByte plan for $60 per month.

For users who wnat more standard notebooks, the trial also will feature the Lenovo X200 for $749.99 with "Internet at Home and On the Go." The laptop is available for $849.99 if a user buys only the two-year DataConnect plan.

The embrace of traditional mobile phone subsidy models is part of the story. The bundling of wireless and wired broadband might ultimately be just as big a part of the story. Consider that the $60 a month plan includes both wireless broadband and DSL as well.

Though the DSL likely will not include the faster speeds many users now require, you might think of the offer as something like a "free DSL" program, as wireless broadband access now costs about $60 a month for 5 Gbytes of usage. The new AT&T includes the heavily-discounted PC plus wireless and DSL broadband for just $59.95 a month.

http://www.att.com/gen/press-room?pid=4800&cdvn=news&newsarticleid=26676

Wednesday, April 1, 2009

Verizon to Activate 25 to 30 LTE Markets in 2010

Verizon Communications CEO Ivan Seidenberg says his firm will begin deployment of its fourth-generation Long Term Evolution network "later this year with a few commercially-ready markets and will roll it out to 25 or 30 markets in 2010."

But the infrastructure only is "just one piece of the puzzle," he says. "It's the combination of devices, applications and network capabilities that will really cause this market to take off," Seidenberg says. "No single company will be able to envision, let alone provide, every aspect of this whole 4G ecosystem on its own."

That is a primary reason why the 4G business model will be different from what we have seen with 2G networks, with 3G being someplace in between. Where 2G was largely a vertically-integrated business, 3G has been more open, at least to the extent that broadband access to the Internet itself is an "open" environment.

The 4G model inevitably will be more of an "ecosystem" approach, in part because many applications are seen as "machine to machine," and in part because device and application openness will be much more central ways of creating new applications.

http://sev.prnewswire.com/telecommunications/20090401/NY9285501042009-1.html

Big Telcos Bluffing about Broadband Stimulus?

Some people think the "big telcos" are bluffing about refusing to apply for funds to be awarded under either of the programs authorized for "broadband stimulus" programs as part of the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act.

There are concerns about strings attached to the grants, to be sure. But there are other, more practical issues that suggest many "big telcos" will be unable to apply, or will find the "strings" too onerous.

"Big" companies serving "urban" areas, or even rural areas within states where they also serve classic small and rural communities, are generally barred from getting Rural Utilities Service funds, and RUS is in charge of some of the funds. So "big companies" cannot apply for RUS funds.

Big companies might be able to apply for NTIA funds, if they get waivers. But the clear logic and language of the statute makes clear a preference for non-profits and government-related agencies as "eligible" applicants. That's why the language about "waivers" exists. "Big telcos" are seen as exceptions to the rules about eligible applicants.

You can make your own educated guesses about the likelihood of applications from "big companies" being funded, under those circumstances. "Big companies" aren't seen as the logical applicants, even if the final rules might allow them to bid. At this point, waivers seem to be necessary, in any event.

Aside from strings that also bother some U.S. governors about accepting funds authorized by other parts of ARRA, it is possible bigger telcos might just take a pass for those reasons alone. The statute is written in ways that make clear an intention to fund non-profits and projects that primarily create jobs (it is part of the "stimulus" bill, recall), and only secondarily create infrastructure.

There are lots of reasons for carriers to think they will not be allowed to apply for some of the funds, and are not the most-favored applicants for most of the funds.

http://blog.wired.com/business/2009/04/big-telcos-bluf.html

Is Cable's WiMAX Business Model Anything Like Wi-Fi?

Cable operators continue to have more questions about wireless services than they do about any other products delivered over their wired broadband plant. They should. Wireless would be the first service not delivered over networks they fully control, and which build relatively logically on what their existing networks offer, in terms of value.

Wireless wouldn't be the first service they've ever offered that must take share from other providers in a saturated market. Cable digital voice clearly has had to take share from incumbent telcos. But core video entertainment and cable modem services essentially were "green field" services that only had to grab attention, not steal market share.

Wireless voice and data are not businesses where cable has existing core competence, and a price "race to the bottom" is not where cable traditionally is most comfortable.

Everybody seems to think mobile video and content is where cable might leverage its formidable assets in a more-logical way. But no killer app yet has emerged.

Should that tack succeed, the business model for WiMAX might be along the lines of how Cablevision Systems Corp. positions it own metro Wi-Fi offerings. Essentially wireless access drives the value and profitability of cable modem service.

So if "cable modem services" provide the business model for providing free metro Wi-Fi, perhaps wired video entertainment will provide the ultimate business model for WiMAX.

Thinking About Absconding with a Netbook Under Contract?

LM Ericsson has developed a new modem, intended for use in netbooks sold at a discount by wireless providers, that will remotely disable the computer if a customer on a contract stops paying his or her bills. Of course, there are other applications as well. An enterprise information technology manager dealing with a stolen laptop could lock down data on the machine to ensure security.

Lenovo Group, which makes the enterprise-oriented IBM ThinkPad line of PCs, has said it will build this sort of feature into its laptops.

The new Ericsson modem also is said to have the ability to remain active even when a PC is turned off, perhaps listening for messages such as email or Skype calls.

http://tech.yahoo.com/news/ap/20090331/ap_on_hi_te/tec_techbit_laptop_modems

Opera for Virgin Mobile

Opera Software will be available on some Virgin Mobile USA handsets as part of a deal that makes Virgin Mobile USA a distributor of the mobile browser. Helio was the first U.S. carrier to sign a deal with Opera Mini in the United States.

Open Range to Bring WiMAX to 6 Million Rural Homes

For those of you who might be wondering, high-speed broadband in rural America is not in as dire straights as you might think. There's a problem, but it is being solved. Consider that estimates of rural un-served or underserved households range from six million to 10 million.

Then consider that just one company--Open Range Communications--has raised enough money to bring fourth-generation wireless to about six million U.S. households in rural U.S. areas. And construction is about to begin.

Level 3 Communications has announced an agreement with Open Range Communications, which intends to deliver wireless broadband using WiMAX to 500 rural communities in 17 states, reaching an audience of six million potential subscribers.

Open Range will leverage Level 3’s extended on-net services to offer high-speed Internet and voice services to millions of previously un-served or underserved communities across North America.

Open Range has gotten a $100 million investment by One Equity Partners, the private equity arm of JPMorgan Chase and a loan provided by the United States Department of Agriculture's Rural Development Utilities Program (RDUP) for $267 million.

Personally, I'd argue Open Range is going to build more broadband facilities, reaching more potential customers, than every single project funded under the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act ("broadband stimulus"). And for a lot less money.

U.S. Telecom Capex to Drop 7% in 2009

U.S. communications carrier capital spending will dip 7.3 percent in 2009, Yankee Group analysts now predict. That's less than the 10 percent figure some of us have speculated about, purely on a non-scientific “gut feeling” basis.

Actual declines will vary based on industry segment. Wireless investment is going to continue at healthier levels, as will broadband investments related to IPTV rollouts and broadband access generally. As you would predict, investments in legacy voice are going to be starved, by comparison.

Telecommunications carriers globally will chop about $12 billion from their capital budgets, decreasing their spending from $284 billion in 2008 to $272 billion in 2009.

Some observers will find that figure relatively heartening news, as it represents a bit more than a four percent dip, at least globally. And some regions and countries actually will increase spending, the Asia Pacific region in particular.

Globally, capex, as a percentage of revenue, will decline from 15.2 percent of revenues in 2008 to 14.1 percent in 2009.

U.S. IT Forecasts Revised: Down in 2009 (no surprise)

Gartner and Forrester have both lowered their expectations of U.S.technology spending this year.

Gartner now forecasts a 3.8 percent drop in spending worldwide to $3,200 billion, compared with the $3,400 billion recorded in 2008. Three months ago, it was predicting a modest rise in spend this year over last year. Gartner points out that the decline it now predicts is worse than the 2.1 percent fall in IT spending in 2001, after the dot-com bubble.

Gartner predicts a 15 percent decline in computer hardware shipments, a three percent fall in telecom spending, a two percent drop in IT services and 0.3 percent growth in software sales.

Forrester now expects information technology sales to shrink by 3.1 percent in 2009, compared with the 1.6 percent it previously suggested.

All analysts overshoot. We extrapolate from past trends, which generally works fine so long as markets are not at turning points. One can almost predict an overshoot to the down side at some point, as trends change again.