Paul Ryan on Spurring Economic Growth

I admit to a bias in favor of rational economic analysis of difficult problems, which is to say that economists generally agree on quite a number of things, and that what they tend to agree about, where it comes to spurring long-term economic growth, productivity and the ability to provide the "greatest good for the greatest number" we ought to be sober and determined.

It's a bit of a "policy wonk" point of view, but such things have direct consequences for everybody. In my case, most especially for my Millennial children. This is an interesting discussion, along those lines. Growth normally is not the sort thing most people think about. But without growth, it is impossible to provide higher real incomes for the broadest number of "average" Americans.

Equity is a praise-worthy social concern. But real economic growth always is the foundation for sustainable growth in ability to support social equity. The link isn't always obvious, even if true. Growth is necessary, and for that reason inherently praise worthy.

FiOS Gains in Maryland and Virginia

It's just impressionistic, but at a recent dinner with friends not in the communications, Internet or software industries (just regular folks, in other words) who live in Maryland and northern Virginia, several mentioned that they just had switched to Verizon's FiOS service, and seemed quite happy with it.

One mentioned the new Netflix streaming capability, built in to the new HDTV the family had just bought.

The value proposition seemed pretty clear. The household normally rents four pay-per-view movies a month, at about $5 each. The unlimited, $10 a month Netflix streaming plan seemed like an obvious good deal.

It's just impressionistic, but illustrates the shifting state of the communications business at the moment. First, there was a shift of market share from cable provider to telco for video and broadband service. Second, there was a shift from pay per view to streaming Netflix. Third, though it doesn't seem to have been a key part of the buying decision, the video shift likely cements use of Verizon fixed-voice services as well.

Perhaps there is no immediate and obvious change in bandwidth consumption that would create "overage" charges. On a standard 3G or 4G mobile access plan, of course, the implications are quite clear. It is conceivable a wireless dongle user could blow through a month's usage by watching three movies a month.

3G, 4G Roaming is Not Seamless

Verizon Wireless says it can take up to two minutes for a fourth-generation network connection to switch over to a 3G radio when users move between cell zones.

"Hand-offs can take up to a couple minutes, but that was expected and a fix is in the works," Verizon spokesman Jeffrey Nelson said.

Users of Sprint Evo handsets might note a related problem, namely that when a 4G connection defaults back to 3G, it does not automatically reconnect to 4G when a 4G signal is available. It has to be manually restarted.

Those sorts of issues tend to get fixed over time.

Modem 'hand-off' from 3G to LTE can take two minutes, Verizon says - Computerworld

FCC Net Neutrality Effort All for Show?

Nobody has seen the secret draft of the upcoming Federal Communications Commission proposed rules on net neutrality. No doubt it will be crafted in as balanced a way as such a rule can be.

But it is not immediately clear how the jurisdictional argument can be overcome, namely that the courts already have ruled that the Commission does not have the authority to create a rule, even if it wants to.

No doubt some clever extension of common carrier and ancillary authority will be offered up. But it isn't clear how long the rules will be in force before the inevitable round of court challenges begin.

Having already once rejected the premise that the FCC can assert jurisdiction over networks that manage traffic by prioritizing some types of traffic over others.

No doubt a different basis for jurisdiction will be asserted, and then we'll have to see whether courts will agree. In the end, as sometimes happens in Washington, D.C., some things loudly get done, for political reasons, that even proponents realize will not stand, in the end.

There will be lots of noise, no doubt. Whether there will be rules that can withstand court challenge is among the key issues. Some doubt the rules will succeed in that respect.

Chairman Genachowski’s Next Net Neutrality Proposal: What to Watch For | Electronic Frontier Foundation

Smartphones Help and Hurt Retailers

Smartphones increasingly are seen as opportunities for retailers to enhance the in-store shopping experience. But smartphones also are used by shoppers in ways that make retailing more difficult.

Vodafone UK chief executive Guy Laurence, for example, says retailers have "lost control of their shoppers," meaning they are able, in real time, to compare prices at other outlets that might be carrying the same merchandise, or similar merchandise, as the retailer whose store they might currently be in, and can check reviews and user feedback on those items, while in the store.

Shoppers can now use their phone to receive coupons for the very stores they are walking past, with their screen presenting a virtual shopping mall with a list of the local discounts before they even get off the bus.

Research from Motorola found 51 percent of consumers are using their mobile phones for in-store research while 61 percent want to be able to scan barcodes to access information on other stores' prices.

Smartphones changing the way we shop | Technology | The Guardian

Are People Actually Using Enterprise UC?

Major shifts in enterprise technology, indeed much of business technology, can take a long time to begin delivering financial returns. Some of you might remember the experience of the 1980s, when enterprises embarked on a huge wave of information technology investment, but without any clear evidence that there were productivity gains, for the better part of a decade.

Only in the 1990s did the productivity gains begin to register in significant ways, and one might argue that it is because it took that long for the architecture and human behavior to reorient to a different way of doing things.

So far, one might argue something akin to that has been happening in many companies as unified communications have been deployed. Ignore for the moment the objection that "defining" UC is quite difficult, and that there are many levels of UC adoption, each of which might represent a different payback case.

Lots of people would argue that a measurement payback is quite difficult overall, with the easiest justifications coming from videoconferencing and other conferencing tools, where it can be claimed that travel costs are avoided.

Some believe unified communications has required initial investment that is simply too high, and the returns too slim.

Gartner analysts say, for example, that “thе adoption οf UC іn enterprises bу enterprises continues tο increase, but usage remains low. That's a problem, as getting thе workforce tο really υѕе UC tools іѕ essential іf companies аrе tο reap thе “soft” benefits οf increased collaboration аnԁ productivity аnԁ realize “hard” metrics such аѕ cost savings.

Unified communications is “the greatest scam since Ponzi," Nick Jones, a Gartner analyst, has said, in large part because nobody can agree on what UC entails. “I’ll give you the real definition: unified communications is the bundle of things a vendor wants to sell you."

Also, there is an argument that unified communications cannot compete with consumer-driven technology.Using the examples of Skype and Twitter, Jones argues that people have simply found other tools that provide most of the benefits UC once promised.

To a large extent, the need for UC has shifted from voice and email to social communications.

“Why would you want to trap young people with dinosaur communications when they’ve already got something better?,” Jones rhetorically asks. “Most unified communications systems can’t even show you tweets, let alone where they are coming from.”

UC, in that view, is more about micro-blogging services, and less integration of fixed and mobile communications, mailboxes and numbers.

http://www.computerworld.com.au/article/361114/technology_update_unified_communications_integrated_cloud/

Gartner’s Magic Quadrant on Unified Communications: Enterprises are buying it but is anyone using it? | Open Source IP PBX

Will 4G Boost ARPU?

There would be little reason for a mobile service provider to launch a fourth-generation network if it did not expect a financial return, in the form of enhanced revenue, lower operating costs, reduced churn, better customer acquisition or some other combination of value with a clear financial impact.

But researchers at Ovum suggest that the immediate returns will come more from operating cost advantages than revenue lift. In part, that will be because the overwhelming number of customers and accounts will remain on the 3G networks for some time. By definition, it will take some time before the number of 4G customers and revenue sources are big enough to affect revenue and earnings, one way or the other.

As Verizon, T-Mobile USA and AT&T activate their own 4G networks to compete with the existing Sprint Nextel and Clearwire networks, pricing should be under pressure as well.

One might also speculate that tablet and other connected devices, such as PC dongles and mobile hotspot devices, might initially provide the bulk of subscription revenues for all of the 4G services. The issue is whether those revenue sources will remain dominant as more 4G smartphones become available.

Verizon's 4G advantage is coverage | Telecom Awards:

Sprint, T-Mobile To Sell 4G Tablets in 2011

Sprint Nextel Corp. and T-Mobile USA are planning to sell tablet computers in 2011. That isn't surprising, given the momentum tablets seem to have, coupled with the launch of new fourth-generation networks that, for the moment, do not offer the handset diversity of 3G networks and arguably are designed for PC and other devices more than traditional voice and texting.

The longer term issue will be the extent to which 4G networks enable new application and revenue models 3G has not. The focus on tablets, though partly practical (suppliers have not yet begun to produce 4G smartphones in great variety), might also suggest the ways 4G could underpin a new wave of development based on connected devices more than traditional smartphones.

A tablet would round out Sprint's portfolio of 4G wireless products, which is crucial to sustaining momentum as its rivals ramp up their own next-generation wireless efforts. It could also potentially offer Sprint a unique halo product to rally behind following the successful launch of two 4G smartphones, which has spurred the company's turnaround, the Wall Street Journal says.

UPDATE: Sprint, T-Mobile To Sell 4G Tablets Next Year - WSJ.com

Mobile Workforce Now is the Norm

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Most people would agree that "work" these days requires some degree of mobility, though not every associate needs the same degree of mobile support. So the new question is how many devices starts to be too much.

Android Represents 80% Of Verizon's Smartphone Sales -- InformationWeek

In October 2009, BlackBerries represented a whopping 93 percent of Verizon Wireless' smartphone sales. In just two months, that number dropped by half to about 48 percent. The Motorola Droid was the primary reason, as Motorola's share of Verizon's smartphone sales jumped from three percent to 36 percent, according to Matthew Goodmam, analyst at ITG Investment Research.

RIM dropped 45 percent at Verizon between the third quarter of 2009 and the third quarter of 2010, and Goodman believes RIM will be down 49 percent in the fourth quarter of 2010.

In November 2010, RIM owns about 19 percent of Verizon's smartphone sales, while Motorola accounts for about 38 percent of Verizon's smartphone sales.

HTC ranks third at Verizon with 18 percent of sales, LG ranks fourth with 14 percent, Samsung ranks fifth with 10 percent, and Palm represents one percent of Verizon's smartphone sales in November.

Android Represents 80% Of Verizon's Smartphone Sales -- InformationWeek

51% of U.K. Mobile Users Use Mobile Commerce; 41% of Brands Will Create Mobile Apps or Sites

About 41 percent  of U.K. retail brands expect to have a transactional mobile site or application within the next year, according to a study by the Association for Interactive Media and Entertainment, the Internet Advertising Bureau and Interactive Media in Retail Group.

But 51 percent of mobile phone-owning UK consumers (22.95 million people) have used mobile commerce apps and features.

About 43 percent have used their mobiles to conduct research. About 35 percent report they have used mobile to enhance the shopping experience.

About 37 percent have charged a purchase to their mobile phone bills and 27 percent have used their mobiles to buy goods and charged the purchase to their debit card, credit card or PayPal account.

The study found that while mobile commerce is still very much at the consideration stage, the majority of retailers surveyed expect mobile commerce to be part of their main strategy within the next 12 months.

The survey of 140 marketing professionals from the retail, advertising and mobile service provider sectors in the U.K. also found that 59 percent of the senior-level representatives from U.K. retail brands that took part expected their mobile revenues to increase over the next 12 months, and 94 percent saw it as a real opportunity for their business.

Each month in the U.K. 4.2 million consumers are visiting retailers’ websites using the mobile internet. However, just four out of the top 20 most frequently visited retailer websites are presently optimized for mobile, and only eight of the top 20 have any kind of mobile application for smartphones like the iPhone, Blackberry or Android powered devices.

Whilst most retailers believe their mobile revenues will increase over the next few years, currently around 63 percent either make less than one percent of their total revenues via mobile, or don’t measure their mobile revenues at all at present.

read more here

80% Of CIOs Want To Buy Tablets

Paget Alves, Sprint president of business markets, expects a number of Sprint’s tablet buyers to be business users, noting that 70 to 80 percent of the chief information officers that Sprint talks to are interested in deploying tablets to their employees in some fashion.

“The adoption rate for tablets in the business sector is much, much faster than we expected,” said Alves. Most users are “knowledge workers” searching for a lighter, cheaper alternative to a laptop, particularly for travel. While a company’s entire workforce would likely not receive a tablet, a “meaningful proportion” probably would, said Alves.

Sprint Says 4G Tablet Coming In 2011, 80% Of CIOs Want To Buy Tablets

Mobile Drives 40% of NPR Traffic

Fully 40 percent of NPR's Internet traffic can be traced back to its mobile platforms. Almost shocking.

NPR's iPhone and iPad Apps, Developed by Bottle Rocket Apps, Win Advertising Age 2010 Media Vanguard Award

Social Media Boosts Ratings

There’s debate about exactly how much online conversation is driving TV ratings, but “Bravo Talk Bubble” appears to have delivered a 10 percent lift to "The Real Housewives of New York."

Water-cooler conversation about TV shows has been a staple of office conversation for quite some time. What is different is the effort now to boost TV ratings as they occur by harnessing social networks.

Other networks have claimed even higher. We’re still in the early days of measuring and leveraging these stats, but the real-time information is already in place.

How Social Media is Changing the Business of Television

Will Verizon And DirecTV Market a Video-Plus-Broadband Bundle?

One problem any fixed network provider has is that antitrust considerations generally bar, and are expected to bar, any firm from serving the entire country. A general rule of thumb might be that any single fixed-line provider getting close to 50 percent coverage of U.S. homes would trigger an antitrust or regulatory review of some sort.

But there are advantages to a national footprint. DirecTV, Dish Network, Hughes Network Systems, Wildblue, AT&T, Sprint, Verizon Wireless and T-Mobile USA, for example, all have a national footprint, though using wireless, which has not historically triggered antitrust or regulatory review.

One thought that therefore has occurred, and should occur, to executives is the ability to use wireless to contend for customers on a national basis for multiple products. It appears Verizon Wireless and DirecTV might be gearing up to provide a broadband access and TV service on a national basis.

The bundle presumably would be based on the new Verizon Wireless fourth-generation Long Term Evolution network, combined with DirecTV's video service.

You might wonder why that is necessary, given that a customer could simply buy the Verizon LTE service directly. A customer can do that. But Verizon apparently thinks it can provide the fastest speeds by using a roof-mounted antenna and then in-home wireless router.

Since DirecTV already has a nationwide installation capability, DirecTV could provide the installation services.

For DirecTV, the partnership would mean it could sell a broadband bundle for the first time. For Verizon, the offer allows the company to compete with a "landline-equivalent broadband access service" across the entire country.

Verizon And DirecTV Test 4G Wireless In A Product Bundle