Wednesday, December 19, 2007

LTE: 160 Mbps Bandwidth in Test by Nokia Siemens


Nokia Siemens Networks has completed the world’s first multi-user field trial in an urban environment, reaching speeds in excess of 160 Mbps.

The test of Long Term Evolution (LTE) technology, which supports mobile data rates up to 173 Megabits per second, was conducted in a real urban outdoor environment with multiple users using the new 2.6 GHz spectrum.

It confirms that LTE performance requirements can be met using 3GPP standardized technologies and it realized data rates of more than 100 Mega bits per second over distances of several hundred meters, while maintaining excellent throughput at the edge of typical urban mobile radio cells.

700-MHz Bidders Surface



Some 266 bidders for 700 MHz spectrum auction have surfaced so far. Not all the bidders will content for the national C block, though. Many of the bidders are small, independent telephone companies angling for local blocks of spectrum. But a few cable companies also are on the list. Of course, over time those fragmented allocations probably will be rolled up into larger networks, as has always happened in the past.

The bidders include Google (GOOG) Airwaves Inc.; Towerstream; Vulcan Spectrum;
Alltel; AT&T Mobility Spectrum; CenturyTel Broadband Wireless; Chevron; Cincinnati Bell Wireless; Cox Wireless; Iowa Telecommunications Services; MetroPCS 700 MHz; Qualcomm
Cablevision (CSC Spectrum Holdings); Verizon Wireless (Cellco Partnership) and Advance/Newhouse.

Google Apps on WildBlue Home Page


WildBlue Communications will be making Google Apps available to its broadband access service directly from the WildBlue.net home page in the first quarter of 2008. The apps include Gmail webmail services, Google Calendar shared calendaring, Google Talk instant messaging and Google Page Creator web page creation tools.

The new WildBlue.net home page will also feature a mix of news, weather, sports, and entertainment, plus powerful new customizable features from more than 2,000 available Google Gadgets that can be easily added to each customer's individual WildBlue.net home page.

To be sure, any Web user can access any of the Google Apps on their own. But the WildBlue deal should help increase awareness of, and use of, the Web-based apps. Some observers say most Web users aren't aware of Google Apps, so the deal will help popularize the tools.

The deal is reminiscent of the way the old SBC used Yahoo as a way to drive the usability of its Internet access services. Sure, the deal is not exclusive. Users can get access to the functionality some other way. But the packaging should help, in the same way that apps benefit from placement on mobile provider "main decks."

Amazon DevPay: Getting Paid for Cloud Apps


Amazon DevPay is a simple-to-use billing and account management service that makes it easy for developers to get paid for applications they build on Amazon Web Services.

Amazon DevPay allows app providers to quickly sign up customers, automatically meter their usage of services, have Amazon bill users, and collect payments.

Amazon DevPay provides a simple Web interface for pricing applications based on any combination of up-front, recurring and usage-based fees.

To use Amazon DevPay, users develop using Amazon S3 or an Amazon EC2 Machine Image (AMI), register the apps with Amazon DevPay, provide a product description and configure your desired pricing.

The Amazon DevPay purchase pipeline is linked to the app Web site. Activity is
monitored on the Amazon DevPay Activity page.

There are no minimum fees and no setup charges. Activity is billed at three percent of the transaction amounts and $0.30 per bill generated.

Amazon SimpleDB: Boost for Cloud Computing


Amazon now offers SimpleDB, a Web service for running queries on structured data in real time. This service works in close conjunction with Amazon Simple Storage Service (Amazon S3) and Amazon Elastic Compute Cloud (Amazon EC2), collectively providing the ability to store, process and query data sets in the cloud.

Traditionally, this type of functionality has been accomplished with a clustered relational database that requires a sizable upfront investment. In contrast, Amazon SimpleDB is easy to use and provides the core functionality of a database--real-time lookup and simple querying of structured data--without the operational complexity.

Amazon SimpleDB automatically indexes data and provides a simple API for storage and access.

Amazon SimpleDB provides streamlined access to the lookup and query functions that traditionally are achieved using a relational database cluster, while leaving out other complex, often-unused database operations.

Amazon SimpleDB allows easy scaling of applications as well. For the Beta release, a single domain is limited in size to 10 gigabytes and 100 domains. Over time these limits may be raised, Amazon says.

The service runs within Amazon's high-availability data centers and fully indexed user data is stored redundantly across multiple servers and data centers.

Amazon SimpleDB is designed to integrate easily with other web-scale services such as Amazon EC2 and Amazon S3. For example, developers can run their applications in Amazon EC2 and store their data objects in Amazon S3. Amazon SimpleDB can then be used to query the object metadata from within the application in Amazon EC2 and return pointers to the objects stored in Amazon S3.

Developers and users pay only for what they use; there are no minimum fees.

Machine use costs $0.14 per Amazon SimpleDB Machine Hour consumed. Data transfer in
$0.10 per gigabyte. Data transfer out varies based on volume. Costs are $0.18 per GB for the first 10 TB per month; $0.16 per GB for the next 40 TB and $0.13 per GB over 50 TB.

Structured data storage costs $1.50 per GB-month.

The point is that it is becoming easier by the day to create, store and execute applications based entirely "in the cloud," without ownership or lease of data facilities, access pipes or servers to support those apps. At some point, highly-distributed workforces or end user bases will find it congenial in the extreme to support remote users with services always available through a standard Web browser, with the latest version, with no need for loading updates, patches or extensions.

As software becomes a service, computing infrastructure also is becoming a utility or service as well.

Channel Embraces SaaS


An IDC survey of members of the International Association of Microsoft Certified Partners suggests high expectations for software as a service.

IDC says 76 percent of solution providers who responded believe that SAAS will dramatically impact the partnering landscape, and more than 70 percent of solution providers view it as an opportunity. Solution providers believe that the most profitable opportunities related to SAAS will be in the area of deployment and implementation services.

But solution providers are also looking forward to the recurring revenue opportunity that comes with the SAAS business model.

SAP, Microsoft, Cisco Systems and IBM are among the application providers expected to be active in 2008.

Microsoft Gets Viacom Online Ad Deal


Viacom Inc. has selected Microsoft Corp. as its Internet advertising partner in a five-year agreement initially valued at an estimated $500 million, also involving online games, shows and movies.

Microsoft will help Viacom place advertising on Viacom's U.S. Web sites and be the exclusive seller of its remnant display advertising, or ad space Viacom has been unable to sell.

As part of the deal, Microsoft will also license on a non-exclusive basis long and short-form television and movies from Viacom for the MSN portal and the Xbox 360 game system's online network.

Microsoft has also agreed to buy ads on Viacom's broadcast and online networks over five years and help Viacom establish itself as a publishing partner on Microsoft's casual Internet gaming sites.

VoSKY, Skype Gateways Available Globally



The Skype VoSKY Exchange family of rack-mountable PBX-to-Skype gateways are now available worldwide, VoSKY says. The gateways allow businesses to make and receive free Skype-to-Skype calls with customers and partners, as well as between company offices, as an adjunct to existing business phone systems and calling services.

The co-branded Skype VoSKY Exchange 9040 and 9140 also add VoIP applications such as Click-to-Call, PBX Remote Access, Multi-site PBX Networking and Skype Trunking to existing phone systems.

Some will question whether the gateways are widely suitable for enterprise use. Well, they certainly are suitable for small and mid-sized business use. Enterprise policies might be more challenging, partly in terms of security, partly when complete call logging or recording is required.

For organizations without stringent call recording or logging requirements, the VoSKY gateways are an augmentation solution, used with existing phone service, not as a replacement. If the Skype network goes down, all calls simply are handled by the IP or TDM phone system as they normally would be.

XO Communications, Tech Data in Distribution Deal

XO Communications has signed a distribution deal with Tech Data Corporation, giving Tech Data partners IP communications services for small and medium-sized businesses.

Tech Data will offer its resellers and systems integrators XO's converged IP voice and data services, including XO SIP, which delivers converged voice and data services to businesses with IP-PBX systems over a single, high-speed connection.

XO SIP delivers converged voice and data services to businesses with IP-PBX systems over a single, high-speed connection. XO SIP features include unlimited local calling; unlimited site to site calling; long distance; dedicated Internet access; optional voice compression and online management.

Sale Ahead for EarthLink?


EarthLink Executive Vice President Mike Lunsford, who acted as interim CEO after the death of former CEO Garry Betty, is leaving the company at the end of the year. Earthlink CTO Jon Kerner also is said to be leaving, as is Vice President of Production Operations Eric Alfaro. Kip Morgan, former EarthLink Vice President for Direct Marketing, Access and Audience, also has gone elsewhere.

When such things happen, one normally expects a sale of assets, which is what many observers expected when Rolla Huff took over at EarthLink.

T-Mobile, 3 Join 3G Networks


T-Mobile and 3 are pooling their U.K. 3G transmission networks, a move expected to reduce mobile tower sites by about 5,000 and save £2 billion in capital spending.

Kevin Russell, 3's UK chief executive, said the joint venture deal includes contingencies should either company be taken over, but both expect it to be a long relationship.

The move is not unprecedented, but still is unusual. Though not dictated by regulatory requirements, the move essentially creates a wholesale entity both retail networks will use to operate their businesses. It is not a structural separation, but certainly a functional separation.

By the end of 2009 the two companies plan to have 13,000 sites, covering 98 percent of the population with a mobile broadband network capable of speeds up to 7.2 Mbps.

Wireline Substitution, Mobile Plans, Broadband


KPN seems to have found a way to take market share in the German wireless market: give customers unlimited calling for a flat fee, avoid phone subsidies or selling phones, and keep things simple. The growing number of wireless-only customers apparently is helping, as one obviously needs more minutes in the plan to cover the additional volume when all calls in and out are taken on the mobile.

For $108 a month, Base subscribers can make unlimited free calls anywhere in Germany. A comparable offer by Vodafone costs $144. The sister E-Plus brand KPN supports also has shifted to this "no frills" approach.

In the third quarter 2007 subscriptions wereup 16 percent year-over-year, to some 14.1 million. E-Plus operating profit also rose 79 percent over that period, with profit margins of 38 percent.

Of course, KPN will have to figure out how to translate that success into similar good fortune in the mobile broadband segment, where it might not be quite so easy to maintain robust margins of this sort. Still, KPN's approach to the market is an example of what a carrier can do in an environment where phones are unlocked.

As Verizon moves to "unlock" its CDMA network, and as the C block 700-MHz spectrum goes into operation, also with an "unlocked" approach to device use, one wonders how soon somebody will try this in the U.S. market as well. Cricket Communications, one might argue, already has been chasing the wireline replacement market, but without the unlocked phone component.

Tuesday, December 18, 2007

FCC Reimposes Market Share Cap

The U.S. Federal Communications Commission has voted to impose a limit on the size cable operators can reach on a nationwide basis, limiting any single company from controlling more than 30 percent of total subscribers. The FCC in the past has maintained such a rule, but the limit was invalidated by a court decision in 2001.

Consumer groups say a strict limit on cable television system ownership is needed to prevent them from dominating television programming and Internet services and from blocking video competitors.

As a practical matter, the FCC action could affect merger deals Comcast Corp. would like to pull off, as Comcast already has about 27 percent. The rule might also affect smaller operators like Charter Communications and Cablevision , as it might rule out their acquisition by Comcast.

New Role for ENUM?

Analysts at the Yankee Group think there might be a new market developing for network elements or functions that provide the electronic numbering function that today is provided by peering federations. Such IP Routing Directories functionally provide the basic information required for interconnecting discrete VoIP networks.

Proponents of ENUM have argued that the business benefits derive from operational cost savings and service quality made possible by avoiding traditional PSTN routing infrastructure (SS7) to complete VoIP calls destined for a non-local VoIP
endpoint.

To date, business issues and volume issues have proven to be stumbling blocks. Large carriers make enough money from interconnection that any move to models that dispense with such payments are undesirable. That's the business issue.

And though native VoIP networks obviously require some sort of interconnection fabric, the fact remains that VoIP still is a small amount of total volume.

For the moment, legacy interconnection requirements remain essential. The percent of originating VoIP calls that are actually destined for an IP endpoint are sufficiently small that it might not make terrifically great sense to shift to an IPRD function of some sort.

Ideally, IP-to-IP connections are preferable. But the cost and quality issues might be a growing irritant rather than a compelling necessity for a large carrier, at the moment.

The pain of media conversion and database dips might not be creating enough pain to require an immediate shift to ENUM, in other words. Not to ignore the revenue implications for large carriers, either.

Whither WiMAX?


It might seem odd to question just how big the WiMAX infrastructure market might be, given strong support from the likes of Intel and others who see a data device optimized broadband network as a huge opportunity. And maybe WiMAX ultimately will create a large enough global base of infrastructure that handset and device manufacturers will have a large opportunity.

But potential end user volumes matter, and matter a lot, in today's world. The issue isn't whether WiMAX will work. CDMA works. But global volumes for GSM networks are so large that device innovation is higher on the GSM than the CDMA sides of the ledger. Volume also is a factor for software developers, who prefer larger markets to smaller markets.

Sprint got people excited with plans to build a $5-billion, nation-wide network in the U.S. but that strategy is now in question. Sure, there's the rest of the world, but if you have followed mobile technology trends for any time, you are more careful about the installed base, and the potential installed base.

In the third-quarter, Infonetics Research says, worldwide WiMax equipment sales climbed a mere six percent to $206-million. Meanwhile, worldwide unit shipments of fixed and mobile WiMAX equipment rose 16 percent in the third quarter of 2007.

Still, Infonetics is looking for Wi-Max to see annual growth of 87 percent between 2006 and 2010 as more carriers embrace the fourth-generation technology.

The number of worldwide WiMAX subscribers (fixed and mobile) is expected to skyrocket to close to 60 million in 2010, led by the Asian region, Infonetics says.

Still, there is the historic example of iDEN and CDMA to consider. Devices are more important than networks these days. And one has to contend with the issue of sheer mass, in that regard. There's no question that WiMAX will work. But that's not the crucial question. The issue is how large the market for WiMAX devices might be, compared to GSM and its derivatives.

What Next for Sprint Nextel?



Sprint Nextel has turned to a wireless industry veteran in naming current Embarq Corp. CEO and Chairman Dan Hesse new CEO and President. So what might we expect from him? Perhaps a focus on the many details of execution that seemed lacking in Sprint, of late. Hesse gets high marks for execution at Embarq.

Hesse also was considered a top candidate for the Qwest CEO post as well. And in some ways, Qwest and Sprint are in similar situations. Qwest does not have the financial ability to do some things one might expect from a former Baby Bell. Sprint likewise is in desperate need of serious attention to its core business, even as it contemplates a fourth-generation WiMAX rollout.

Neither company seems suited to a major acquisition that would fix the basic problems each faces. Qwest lacks scale to make some strategies work (it does not own a wireless network and arguably can't afford a major fiber-to-home video initiative).

Sprint remains the third-largest U.S. wireless carrier, but is feeling a rejuvenated T-Mobile nipping at its heels and has to do something really serious about its churn problems. Beyond that, Sprint is looking at some very basic decisions about future technology direction.

Volume in the global markets clearly is in GSM, and Verizon, the other major CDMA-based carrier, has made clear its decision to migrate to LTE, a GSM platform, for 4G. That leaves Sprint even more out on the fringe, as it now supports iDEN, which no other carrier uses, and CDMA which is losing traction in the U.S. market, if not yet internationally.

Before those issues can be tackled, Sprint has to stabilize itself. And Hesse is an adroit manager, most observers probably would say.

Before taking the helm at Sprint spinoff Embarq, he spent 23 years at AT&T, serving as President and CEO of AT&T Wireless Services from 1997-2000, then the nation’s largest wireless provider.

It is probably fair to say Hesse will have to right the ship before considering launching a new vessel.

Personal Navigation: Quiet but a Big Deal


Garmin and TomTom will both ship over 10 million personal navigation devices this year, recent forecasts suggest. Total production in 2007 for just those two manufacturers is something on the order of 22 million units.

To put that in perspective, that's about half of the 55 million iPod music players Apple probably will sell in calendar 2007.

Location-based services seem to catching on very rapidly in the consumer space, after a long gestation in the commercial markets. Is it any wonder Google is so hot on location-based services, or the advertising and marketing opportunities that seem destined to come along with location awareness?

iRobot Cleans Up


This item just for fun, as my daughter worked on the company initial public offering. iRobot, which sells the Roomba vaccuum cleaner robots, got a five-year, $286 million contract from the U.S. Army for up to 3,000 military robots, spare parts, training and repair services.

Up to this point robots have used sparingly and mostly to deal with explosive devices. Apparently there are other things they can do. Aside from cleaning floors and sneaking up on dangerous explosives, that is.

FCC Relaxes Cross Ownership Rules


By a vote of three to two, the U.S. Federal Communications Commission has approved a plan to relax media cross-ownership rules. The rule change, which comes amid opposition from some politicians, allows companies to own both newspapers and broadcast stations within a top-20 market. The rules originally were put into place to safeguard the "diversity of voices" within media markets.

Of course, the context was different then. There were three national networks and maybe one or two major newspapers in a market, with a fragmented radio audience. Since then, cable programming has exploded, with three 24-hour-a-day news channels and two 24-hour-a-day business national news channels available in most markets, and multiple local news channels in many major metro markets as well.

The daily newspaper business, meanwhile, has continued its inexorable, decades-long decline. Indeed, one can argue reasonably that the daily metro newspaper might not exist in the future, at all.

And on top of that we have the rise of blogs, Web news portals, podcasts, Webcasts and other media and news outlets.

Though there was not unanimity on the issue, one can argue that local media markets bear little resemblance to markets of the past, and are in transition to an even-more-different structure in the future.

The last time I looked, the major broadcast networks had become "entertainment focused" in the extreme. I can't even tell you how the "voice" of any of the five local national broadcast networks differs from any of the others. To the extent that the concern about "voices" explicitly is about "political" voices, there seems even less justification than there used to be for cross-ownership restrictions.

National broadcast TV networks don't seem to have any substantial differences of voice. Newspapers are on the way to extinction. Radio is highly fragmented. And then there are the cable news outlets, national and local, plus Web-based news and opinion portals and blogs too numerous to count.

As elsewhere, legacy rules are straining to keep pace with rapid changes in media, communications and information infrastructure.

Wireless Spending Now Equals Wireline


U.S. consumer household spending on wireless now equals spending on wired voice services, the Bureau of Labor Statistics Consumer Expenditure Survey shows. Homes with multiple teenagers and two working parents probably will argue that wireless spending now vastly outpaces wireline, as landlines are phones connecting "places," while mobile connect people. There being more "people" than "places" in such a household, it is easy to see that wireless is the dominant spending category.

Cellular phone expenditures increased rapidly from 2001 through 2006. Coupled with a decrease in spending on residential landline phone services (residential phone services) over the same period, spending on the two types of services were practically equal in 2006.

Expenditures for cellular phone services per consumer unit rose from $210 in 2001 to $524 in 2006, an increase of 149 percent. Expenditures for residential phone services per consumer unit fell from $686 in 2001 to $542 in 2006, a decline of 21 percent.

In 2001, the ratio of spending on residential phone services to spending on cellular phone services was greater than 3 to 1. In 2006, the shares of these two components were almost equal, with residential phone expenditures accounting for 49.9 percent of total telephone expenditures and cellular phone expenditures constituting 48.2 percent.

Are Users Dumber, Or Software Too Complex?


Tech Support: "What does the screen say now?"
User: "It says, 'Hit ENTER when ready'."
Tech Support: "Well?" Person: "How do I know when it's ready?"

Make no mistake: our civilization runs on software. So be exceedingly glad when developers hide complexity so well something seems intuitive and natural.

Useful Condescending Phrases


This is just humor: don't do this at work! And don't get me wrong: I love cats. It's just that they once were worshipped as gods, and they haven't forgotten....

1. Thank you. We're all refreshed and challenged by your unique point of view.
2. The fact that no one understands you doesn't mean you're an artist.
3. I don't know what your problem is, but I'll bet it's hard to pronounce.
4. Any connection between your reality and mine is purely coincidental.
5. I have plenty of talent and vision. I just don't care.
6. I like you. You remind me of when I was young and stupid.
7. What am I? Flypaper for freaks!?
8. I'm not being rude. You're just insignificant.
9. I'm already visualizing the duct tape over your mouth.
10. I will always cherish the initial misconceptions I had about you.
11. It's a thankless job, but I've got a lot of Karma to burn off.
12. Yes, I am an agent of Satan, but my duties are largely ceremonial.
13. No, my powers can only be used for good.
14. How about never? Is never good for you?
15. I'm really easy to get along with once you people learn to worship me.
16. You sound reasonable...Time to up my medication.
17. I'll try being nicer if you'll try being smarter.
18. I'm out of my mind, but feel free to leave a message...
19. I don't work here. I'm a consultant.
20. Who me? I just wander from room to room.
21. My toys! My toys! I can't do this job without my toys!
22. It might look like I'm doing nothing, but at the cellular level I'm really quite busy.
23. At least I have a positive attitude about my destructive habits.
24. You are validating my inherent mistrust of strangers.
25. I see you've set aside this special time to humiliate yourself in public.
26. Someday, we'll look back on this, laugh nervously and change the subject.

Traffic Shaping, Not Blocking

Users of RCN broadband access services are complaining about blocking of BitTorrent connections. That seems unlikely, though traffic shaping seems certain. RCN has in the past noted that more than 90 percent of upstream traffic was composed of P2P streams. And since upstream bandwidth is the key resource constraint, RCN traffic shaping was not unexpected. When users are sharing a scarce resource, some "rationing" is simply fairness.

DoCoMo or Softbank for iPhone?


Apple Chief Executive Steve Jobs reportedly has been talking with NTT DoCoMo and Softbank Corp. about becoming the exclusive supplier of iPhones in the Japanese market, says the Wall Street Journal. That market will be quite helpful if Apple is to meet its promised goal of 10 million iPhones sold by the end of 2008.

Japan's nearly 100 million mobile-phone users buy new phones every two years on average, and aren't adverse to paying for advanced electronics, so it seems a natural iPhone market. And smartphone adoption is headed up smartly, as this forecast by Research and Markets shows.

Apple sold a total of 1.4 million iPhones through late September, which shows the importance of adding the Japanese market to the relative handful of countries where the device can be bought. Travelers from countries where iPhone is not yet available, but which use GSM, have been known to stuff several into their bags before heading home from the United States.

Apple appears to be asking for the same percentage of revenue that it receives from other carriers, estimated at about 10 percent of revenue.

Monday, December 17, 2007

A Must-Attend Conference


I am betting that the Emerging Communications Conference 2008, to be held March 12-14, 2008 in San Jose, Calif., will be one of the best meetings of the year. It is quite hard to get Bellheads and Netheads together in any venue where people actually talk to each other. It is very hard to find venues where people interested in Web apps and communications get together. My guess is that this will be a paramount venue in that regard. You should get there.

The link is http://ecommmedia.com/.

Ribbit!


Ribbit has unveiled a new platform for developing telephony services and integrating them with Web apps, as well as what it says is a new business model as well.

The company says it has a 600-plus developer community and already can be integrated with salesforce.com.

"The world doesn't need another phone company," says Ted Griggs, co-founder and CEO at Ribbit. "What it needs is new kind of phone company, one that liberates voice from its current confines -- devices, plans and business models -- and more readily integrates into the workflow of our professional and personal lives."

At the core of Ribbit's technology offering is an open platform that enables developers to bridge the worlds of traditional telephony and the Web. The Ribbit SmartSwitch, evolved from a Lucent-tested CLASS 5 softswitch, and open Flash/Flex-based application programming interface will enable non-telephony developers to quickly build innovative, rich voice applications and integrate them into Web sites, communities and applications, Ribbit says.

By connecting voice from any Flash-enabled browser to the PSTN (public switched telephone network) and new VoIP (voice over IP) networks, over 750 million computers become the next generation of phones with developers deciding how they work, the company says.

With an assortment of back-office and service delivery infrastructure, the platform also enables developers to not only build services, but sell them as well.

In the first quarter of 2008, the Ribbit for Salesforce workflow integration will be available for salesforce.com customers via the AppExchange.

In the first quarter of 2008, Ribbit will open its service to consumers. Also in the first quarter, the company will sell commercial and enterprise packages. Both the consumer, small, medium and enterprise markets will be areas of focus for Ribbit.

Ribbit is another example of the growing "voice is a mashup" trend, where communications and voice simply are integrated with applications.

VON Coalition Europe to Provide Input to EC

The Voice on the Net (VON) Coalition Europe has formed to provide policy advocacy for IP communications in Europe. The coalition will work to educate, inform and promote responsible government policies that enable innovation and the many benefits that Internet voice innovations can deliver.

The recent release of formal Proposals by the European Commission to amend the existing regulatory framework for communications marks the start of a wide ranging review by the Council of Ministers and European Parliament.

Founding members of the VON Coalition Europe include iBasis, Intel, Google, Microsoft, Rebtel, Skype, and Voxbone.

328.7 Billion VoIP Minutes in Third Quarter

Service providers worldwide recorded an estimated traffic volume of 328.7 billion VoIP minutes during the third quarter, according to iLocus. Of those minutes 72.3 billion were local, 232 billion were national long distance and 24.4 billion were used for international long distance.

About 69.1 billion of those minutes were retail, 3.2 were wholesale local VoIP (white labeling, for example).

There is about 10 percent double counting in national long distance and about 20 percent double counting in international long distance. Double counted minutes are those minutes where the same call is being relayed by two or more carriers and counted as traffic by each one of them.

The top five service providers ranked by minutes were China Telecom, China Netcom, AT&T, China Mobile and Qwest.

13.6 Percent of U.S. Homes are Wireless Only


Preliminary results from the January–June 2007 National Health Interview Survey (NHIS) indicate that more than one out of every eight American homes (13.6 percent) had only wireless telephones during the first half of 2007.

In the first six months of 2007, 13.6 percent of households did not have a traditional landline telephone, but did have at least one wireless telephone. Approximately 12.6 percent of all adults—28 million—lived in households with only wireless telephones; 11.9 percent of all children—nearly 9 million children—lived in households with only wireless telephones.

The percentage of adults living in wireless-only households has been steadily increasing since 2003, CDC finds. During the first six months of 2007, one out of every eight adults lived in wireless-only households. One year before, one out of every 10 adults lived in wireless-only households. And two years before that, in 2004, only one out of every 20 adults lived in wireless-only households.

The observed increase in the percentage of adults living in wireless-only households from the last six months of 2006 to the first 6 months of 2007 was not statistically significant.

But other observed increases over time in the percentage of adults living in wireless-only households were statistically significant, CDC finds. These results suggest a possible recent decline in the rate of increase.

The percentage of adults and the percentage of children living without any telephone service have remained relatively unchanged over the past three years. Approximately 1.9 percent of households had no telephone service. Approximately 3.5 million adults (1.6 percent) and more than one million children (1.7 percent) lived in these households.

For the period January through June 2007, the results reveal that more than one-half of all adults living with unrelated roommates (55.3 percent) lived in households with only wireless telephones.

Adults renting their home (28.2 percent) were more likely than adults owning their home (6.7 percent) to be living in households with only wireless telephones.

More than one in four adults aged 18-24 years (27.9 percent) lived in households with only wireless telephones. Nearly 31 percent of adults aged 25-29 years lived in households with only wireless telephones. As age increased, the percentage of adults living in households with only wireless telephones decreased. Wireless-only percentages were 12.6 percent for adults aged 30-44 years; 7.1 percent for adults aged 45-64 years; and two percent for adults aged 65 years or over.

Men (13.8 percent) were more likely than women (11.5 percent) to be living in households with only wireless telephones. Adults living in poverty (21.6 percent) were more likely than higher income adults to be living in households with only wireless telephones. Adults living in the South (14.9 percent) and Midwest (14 percent) were more likely than adults living in the Northeast (8.8 percent) to be living in households with only wireless telephones.

Non-Hispanic white adults (11.3 percent) and non-Hispanic black adults (14.3 percent) were less likely than Hispanic adults (18 percent) to be living in households with only wireless telephones.

CopperCom SoftSwitch Sales Halted


CopperCom is getting out of the softswitch business, says Light Reading.

Light Reading says CopperCom CEO Julian Thomson says CopperCom "will no longer market the CSX, CopperCommander, and Switchmaxx/VoiceMaxx product lines."

The decision was "primarily due to a lack of demand for our products," Thomson says. "We looked at our forecasting, our market sizing, and so forth going forward, and the demand simply wasn't there."

While competitors stand to benefit from one less softswitch vendor in the market, Light Reading says the effect of CopperCom's demise will be minimal because the company hasn't been actively competing in the market for some time.

One might note that the softswitch market is a bit smallish for the number of suppliers. Infonetics data shown above.

Vonage Outage


Users of Vonage's internet telephone service have been reporting a major service failure, ongoing since Friday. In some cases, it appears that incoming calls are not connecting. Vonage is forwarding the attempted calls to subscriber landlines and cellphones, but repeatedly, and late, some customers report.

An anonymous administrator of Vonage Forum, the independent discussion board where gripes were aired, reports that Vonage claims to have resolved the issue this morning, but users continue to report problems.

Vonage can ill afford such lapses, to say the least. Not when its advertising emphasizes how reliable the service is. Not when it faces yet another patent infringement fracas, this time with Nortel. Unfortunately, nobody in the VoIP space benefits much (competitors might enjoy Vonage's travails to an extent) when VoIP has these sorts of issues. Sooner or later, everybody is going to do VoIP, and the residue is going to cling to all the other providers when that happens.

Qwest Plans No Major Acquisitions or IPTV


After completing a months-long stratgic review, Qwest Communications essentially has decided to "stay the course." There will be "no major shifts" in Qwest's basic approach to the market.

People shouldn't expect major acquisitions or a massive move into IPTV, for example. Instead, Qwest seems to be focusing on a balance between capital investment and shareholder return issues, such as reducing debt load, buying back shares and supporting the payment of dividends.

Partnerships are the way Qwest will provide new services in areas such as video and wireless. That's good news for Sprint, who provides Qwest mobility services, and DirecTV for video entertainment. It also means Qwest will be receptive to other partnerships as well.

"We are looking at partnerships to help us with offerings in the home," Mueller says. "Partners will be a huge part of our success, going forward."

But Qwest will not be looking to make major acquisitions, or dramatically change the rate at which it invests in broadband access, undertaking a major fiber-to-home initiative, for example, though it is increasing its "fiber-to-node" efforts in a relatively controlled way.

Qwest expects by 2011 to increase its broadband penetration to increase from 23 percent to 40 percent, with higher access speeds and a nominal increase in operating costs.

The fiber-to-node deployments are not, Mueller emphasized, related to IPTV, but rather to data services. "Qwest doesn't have the scale" for that, Mueller says.

But fixed-mobile products will be launched in late 2008, to leverage the broadband access investments.

Overall, Qwest will attempt to balance capital investment with returns to shareholders, as one would conclude given Qwest's resumption of dividend payments.

Capital run rates now set at about $1.8 billion are a "good run rate for us," Edward Mueller, Qwest CEO says. "We are trying to minimize capex where it doesn't drive growth," he says. "We will try, in the network operation, be picky and minimize capital expenditures in the outside plant where it doesn't make a reasonable return for us." There also will be a bigger emphasis on "success-based" capital investment, in the enterprise space, for example.

Qwest will focus in 20 markets, including its 10-largest markets, for the FTTN upgrades. Those upgrades might include support for gaming services rather than entertainment video, with the 20 Mbps downstream access capabilities the FTTN upgrade will support. Qwest earlier had said it would spend an incremental $175 per home passed to put the FTTN network in place for 1.5 million homes.

Qwest says it will focus its wholesale efforts on "profitable expansion," suggesting a "success-based" approach to out-of-region enterprise services. The hosting part of our business has promise, Mueller says.

90% of Software Can be Delivered Online

Eric Schmidt, Google's CEO, envisions that 90 percent of today's computing tasks can be moved online. High-end graphics processing is an example of a computing task probably not well suited to online use.

Google execs also argue that more and more computing tasks are unrelated to productivity suites. "If you're creating a complex document like an annual report, you want Word, and if you're making a sophisticated financial model, you want Excel. That's what the Microsoft products are great at. But less and less work is like that," said Google's Dave Girouard.

For now, 2.000 companies start to use Google Apps every day (most try the free version), Google Docs had 1.6 million U.S. users last month, according to Compete.com, while Gmail doubled its U.S. users to 20.1 million in November, according to comScore.

Why It is So Hard to Do Media These Days


Different audiences now prefer different media. Older users continue to be more comfortable with traditional media. For users 41 and younger, the Web makes more sense.

The Web surfing habits of boomers and over-60s are more firmly rooted in traditional media than those of their younger counterparts, according to a Deloitte & Touche study conducted by the Harris Group.

The study found that 67 percent of boomers visited Web sites after seeing ads on TV or in print. Matures, those between 61 and 75, were just as likely to be driven to the Web by print ads and less likely by TV ads.

Yet these two age groups were less likely than Generation X (25 to 41) or Millennials (13 to 24) to visit the Web as a result of an Internet search engine or ad on another site.

A Lumin Collaborative study reinforced the connection between boomers and traditional media. The company found that boomers, defined as those currently ages 42 to 62, spent an average of 2.69 hours a week online, versus 2.83 hours watching TV and 1.93 hours listening to the radio.

The trends were flipped among the echo boomers (ages 18 to 31) and Gen X (32 to 41), who spent more time online than watching TV or listening to the radio and whose time spent online also exceeded that of their boomer counterparts.

Lumin also noted that only 39 percent of respondents in the boomer demographic regarded the Internet as their primary channel of information about companies or products. This rate was substantially less than Gen X (53%) or echo boomers (60 percent).

Boomers were the most likely group to choose newspapers, broadcast TV or magazines as their main source of information.

All of which means all content has to be delivered dual mode these days: Web for people under 41. Other traditional media for users older than 41, to a certain extent. But the direction of the shift is inexorable. The Web wins.

Sunday, December 16, 2007

Why Did Philadelphia Muni Wi-Fi Stumble?


The New American Foundation, a Washington, D.C. policy advocate, argues in a new report that the Philadelphia municipal Wi-Fi effort has stumbled because it opted for private operation of the network, instead of sticking with a originally-recommended non-profit model that also avoided any use of public tax dollars. The report is critical of the decision to award a construction and operation contact to EarthLink.

"An executive committee, set up by the mayor’s office and tasked to study Philadelphia’s options for building a municipal wireless network, assessed
the city’s situation and recommended nonprofit ownership of the network," the report says. But Wireless Philadelphia disregarded those recommendations," the report notes.

"Instead, WP yielded to political pressure when it accepted EarthLink’s bid to own and operate the network."

As a result, the study argues, "WP has underperformed because it de-prioritized public input and constituent interests." The report argues that WP would have been more effective if it had assumed ownership of the network."

I don't know about that. Is it not obvious that a municipal network, even one operated as a non-profit affair, requires a resource generation mechanism? No matter what entity had been chosen to build and operate the network, some way to support construction and operation is necessary, and given the restriction on tax support, some other resource would have to have been available. Donations, grants, commercial fees or some other way of securing support is necessary.

So is it reasonable to assume that even a non-profit approach would have worked? Most observers of the municipal Wi-Fi scene now agree that the resource model is a stumbling block.That is to say, people might very well want to have free or cheap access. But there does not seem to be a sufficient resource input model to support that, if taxes cannot be used.

No approach to building and operating a network can be successful if scores of millions of dollars cannot be raised to construct the network. The legal structure of the entity does not logically seem to be the key impediment here. If tax dollars are not available, some other means of securing the inputs obviously is required. The report contains no suggestion of what that mechanism might otherwise have been. And that, it seems to me, is the big stumbling block. To the extent a non-profit entity had been chosen, what would that entity have been able to do in this regard?

IT Staffing Crisis: Managed Services Opportunity


With only an estimated five million new workers entering a workforce in which twenty-five million will retire over the next twelve years, IT shops are facing an obvious personnel crisis, argue researchers at Ovum. "North American IT shops may well be facing a staffing perfect storm," says Tom Kucharvy, Ovum SVP.

Do the math: Lose 25 million; gain five million, for a net loss of 20 million IT personnel. Assuming technology and software continues to be more important in the future than in the past, it seems rather obvious that enterprise, small business and consumer technology support has to change, and change dramatically.

So is it not reasonable to assume that technology has to be made easier to use; support has to be virtualized (not delivered on site, by a technician)and software has to be delivered as a service?

Two big challenges are certain, Ovum argues. "The impending mass retirement of baby boomers will deplete staff and starve many companies of critical skills."

"Meanwhile, a shortage of replacements due to a smaller crop of college graduates and a dramatic decline in students planning to enter IT-related fields will compound the problem.

"Fundamentally reassessing the skills that will be needed over the next five to ten years rather than attempting to duplicate or replace current skills is the first strategic step companies must take immediately to address the issue," says Kucharvy.

Saturday, December 15, 2007

Is U.K. Business Broadband Near Saturation?


By October about 1.76 million (85 percent) of the 2.12 million U.K. workplaces already had Internet access. This is much the same proportion as six months earlier, in March according to Point Topic. Which could lead to several different conclusions. One might argue that the base of potential buyers is nearly saturated. Or one could argue that the remaining 360,000 sites require some new sort of plan. One might also argue that some businesses might not require broadband, for some reason.

Point Topic’s latest results contrast with the 6.3 percent increase found for the period May 2006 to March 2007 when the pace of broadband development was still high.

Part of the problem is that most of the remaining businesses without internet access are small and poor, Point Topic notes. There is a strong positive association between workforce size and business internet penetration. Organizations with more than 250 employees all have Internet access. Businesses with only one or two employees reported 75 percent penetration.

Internet penetration is 100 percent in the businesses with the highest sales volume, particularly those in the finance sector. All businesses with over £20 million in sales have Internet access, but only 77 percent of those in the “£50k to £100k” category do.

The wholesale and business services sectors are both close to saturation with take-up at 95 percent. The least connected is the retail sector, where only 67 percent of companies have Internet access.

About half of businesses say they are making do with an ordinary, low cost, consumer type internet service. But as the number of employees in a business rises, the proportion using consumer-type internet services falls and that using more expensive business-quality services rises.

In terms of internet connection types, cable modem connections are found much more frequently at smaller workplaces, with 20 percent of all Internet-connected one or two employee businesses choosing them.

Take-up is only around five percent at medium-sized sites and they disappear altogether at the biggest ones. More common amongst businesses with greater employee numbers are satellite, fiber, ATM, leased line or frame relay connections. Some dial-up or IDSN connections are found at all workforce sizes – with ISDN much more important at the larger end.

Everybody is an Information Worker: Bill Gates


So says Bill Gates, Microsoft Chief Software Architect: One of the most important changes of the last 30 years is that digital technology has transformed almost everyone into an information worker.

A lot of people assume that creating software is purely a solitary activity. This isn't true at all.

In almost every job now, people use software and work with information to enable their organisation to operate more effectively.

That's true for everyone from the retail store worker who uses a handheld scanner to track inventory to the chief executive who uses business intelligence software to analyse critical market trends.

So if you look at how progress is made and where competitive advantage is created, there's no doubt that the ability to use software tools effectively is critical to succeeding in today's global knowledge economy.

A solid working knowledge of productivity software and other IT tools has become a basic foundation for success in virtually any career.

Beyond that, however, I don't think you can overemphasise the importance of having a good background in maths and science.

If you look at the most interesting things that have emerged in the last decade - whether it is cool things like portable music devices and video games or more practical things like smart phones and medical technology - they all come from the realm of science and engineering.

The power of software

Today and in the future, many of the jobs with the greatest impact will be related to software, whether it is developing software working for a company like Microsoft or helping other organisations use information technology tools to be successful.

Bill Gates
Lifelong learning is vital

Communication skills and the ability to work well with different types of people are very important too.

A lot of people assume that creating software is purely a solitary activity where you sit in an office with the door closed all day and write lots of code.

This isn't true at all.

Software innovation, like almost every other kind of innovation, requires the ability to collaborate and share ideas with other people, and to sit down and talk with customers and get their feedback and understand their needs.

I also place a high value on having a passion for ongoing learning. When I was pretty young, I picked up the habit of reading lots of books.

It's great to read widely about a broad range of subjects. Of course today, it's far easier to go online and find information about any topic that interests you.

Having that kind of curiosity about the world helps anyone succeed, no matter what kind of work they decide to pursue.

Nortel Claims Patent Infringement by Vonage


Nortel Networks has sued Vonage Holdings Corp., alleging Vonage is infringing 12 Nortel patents. Of course, in some ways it is a counter-suit, as Vonage earlier had sued Nortel seeking to invalidate three of the patents.

An injunction would prevent Vonage from using technology that relates to 911 and 411 calls, as well as its "click to call" feature.

Business Model Juxtaposition


There are multiple reports from Twitter users on T-Mobile networks that Twitter streams are being interrupted. Separately, photographer Lane Hartwell has taken 5,000 images formerly available on Flickr out of public view. What's the resemblence?

Hartwell objects to images being used on the Web without credit or compensation. "I don't want people just taking my stuff and saying, 'We're going to redistribute this to the masses," she says. She wants to protect her business model, in other words.

Assuming T-Mobile actually is blocking Twitter posts, one would assume there is a similar motivation: to protect the business model.

"It is stealing," Hartwell says of the unauthorized use of her photo in a YouTube video. "I'm not a charity. This is my living."

Likewise, T-Mobile seems to be taking the position that its "short code" service requires a commercial relationship with T-Mobile.

“Twitter is not an authorized third-party service provider, and some services are not available on third-party networks or while roaming," T-Mobile is reported to have replied to a complaint about the apparent Twitter blocking.

"We may impose credit, usage, or other limits to service, cancel or suspend service, or block certain types of calls, messages, or sessions (such as international, 900, or 976 calls) at our discretion,” T-Mobile reportedly has said.

The point is that use of some resources occasionally is a direct assault on some individual's, or some enterprises's, business model, and those entities sometimes take steps to protect their business models.

The observation is that as all content, communications and information moves to IP delivery, these sorts of disputes are bound to multiply.

Friday, December 14, 2007

Search Surges


U.S. users posted a new record for the number of search queries performed on the top engines in November, with over 8.1 billion discrete searches. That’s roughly 48 monthly searches per person on average and 12 more monthly searches than the 36 per month that Compete estimated for November 2006.

Personally, I think I do something more like 48 searches an hour!

Fair Use: Tragedy of the Commons


I might not be the most popular user in defending "fair use" policies, but I have to tell you there is such a thing as the "tragedy of the commons."

Without being overly literal about it, the "tragedy of the commons" is a way of describing how free access and unrestricted demand for a finite resource ultimately dooms the resource through over-exploitation.

This occurs because the benefits of exploitation accrue to individuals or groups, each of whom is motivated to maximize use of the resource, while the costs of the exploitation are distributed among all those to whom the resource is available.

As a westerner, I'll illustrate the problem by pointing to the history of conflict over grazing and water rights. Assume you are a cattle or sheep rancher, grazing those animals on open range that actually is owned by the U.S. government. Assume the market for livestock is good. Each rancher then has an incentive to add animals to the herd, increasing the intensity of grazing. At some point, there isn't enough grass to support all the animals.

Now Internet access is a shared resource, by definition. If you use a cable modem, the actual bandwidth is shared by a large number of end users. If you use Digital Subscriber Line, the sharing happens further up in the network, but the resource still is shared. "Oversubscribed," we like to say. One never provisions enough bandwidth to meet the full theoretical demand any single subscriber might use.

Basically, designers use statistics to provide enough bandwidth to meet average demand, at average times of day, and day of week, to meet the demand created by users who actually are online and using the resource at any given point.

But those statistics are based on "typical" demand. So what might be typical? For a consumer user, somewhere between one and three gigabytes of use in a month. My business use--and I am on the Web all day from roughly 6 a.m. to 8 or 9 p.m.--runs about 2.5 Gbytes a month, typically.

There always are a small number of users who "graze their cattle" vastly more extensively than the rest, creating something that might be less than a major "tragedy of the commons" problem, but clearly consuming enough bandwidth that user experience for all the other users paying the same amount of money is degraded.

"T'aint fair." There's a solution for very-high usage: buy a business plan that really offers "all you can eat" bandwidth at the level you require.

At Qwest Broadband, for example, the illustrative volume that really is excessive for a consumer user might be:
• 300,000-500,000 photo downloads in one month
• 40,000 to 80,000 typically sized MP3 music downloads in one month
• 15+ million unique e-mails each month
• Online TV video streaming of 1,000-3,000 30-minute shows each month
• 2-5 million Web page visits (approximately one every second, 24 hours per day)

Those of us who have jobs, spend time outdoors, play sports, garden, ski, raise children, go shopping, read books and so forth really don't have time to consume that much data in a month.

Some people might have to do those sorts of thing for work, but that's the point: buy business bandwidth that clearly is sold with the understanding that if you want to push the network that way, you pay more for the privilege.

So long as access bandwidth is a shared resource, there will be a "freeloading" or "tragedy of the commons" danger. Good citizenship, good manners and good neighborliness requires a little respect for other people here.

I fail to share the "outrage" of people who think they should be allowed to overgraze the commons. Nobody has a "right" to impose those costs on the rest of users who "play nice."

Windows Vs. BlackBerry in Enterprise?


A recent poll of enterprise wireless subscribers found 84 percent of respondents who do use smart phones, use a BlackBerry, according to InfoTech. Palm Treo and HTC devices trail and Microsoft OS devices, though growing fast, appear to fare no better than fourth.

But Windows Mobile finally is making inroads. "As such, the world essentially will come down to RIM vs. Microsoft in the enterprise market," says InfoTech.

More than 70 percent of respondents say email is the most important function of a smartphone, followed by Internet Wi-Fi access at 12 percent, the survey found.

More than 80 percent of respondents indicated they also use text messaging.

About 49 percent of survey respondents across all enterprise sizes said they were using wireless data card, with nearly 38 percent reporting a preference for the Verizon Wireless network.

Sprint the second-largest base at 24 percent. And speed apparently matters. Some 81 percent of respondents would switch operators to get faster speeds.

If Microsoft Had Designed GMail...

A funny spoof at http://blogoscoped.com/archive/2007-11-20-n35.html

Thursday, December 13, 2007

SME VoIP Still a Challenge


Plenty of challenges continue to face successful providers of hosted or premises-based VoIP services. In its most recent survey of IP communications demand in the small and medium business market, Savatar Research found some “good and bad news and some that is disturbing,” says John Macario, Savatar president.

“We were expecting a bump in the market, based on the last three years of work, or at least a growth rate consistent with the past,” he says. “The bad news is that adoption is flat.” There’s not a lot of growth, he says. SME adoption is stalled at about 17 percent.

“There’s increasing frustration among SMEs,” who apparently haven’t yet gotten the message about benefits, which are clear enough based on feedback from executives who have purchased and use IP communications products and services.

It isn’t that SMEs are buying legacy phone systems. They just are not moving. They’re “just sitting on what they’ve got.” And that’s true both for premises phone systems and hosted offerings, Macario says.

All of which suggests many service providers who don’t know how to serve the market, he notes.

Macario says there is some evidence that buying might even have slowed over the last year. For those who have purchased IP communications products or services, “more than 70 percent purchased more than one year ago,” Macario says. “Only 12 percent have purchased between six months to a year ago.”

“About 15 percent have bought last six months,” he says.

The good news is that “the buyers are insanely happy,” Macario notes. About three quarters of respondents say they have gotten economic benefit while 75 percent say the systems are much easier to manage.

About 84 percent say the quality of their IP systems is as good or better than their old systems. The same percentage say the IP systems are as good or more reliable than the old systems.

As you would expect, 82 percent say the IP feature set is far better. Astoundingly, 95 percent say they would recommend or highly recommend the service or system they now use.

They “really are enthusiastic,” Macario says. Among the most-used IP features is the auto attendant capability. For many SMEs, this is the first system that allows them to do so. Half of respondents say they use it. About a third use group-oriented features or informal call center capabilities as well.

About a third use find me/follow me or simultaneous ring, he adds. About a quarter use click-to-dial and the ability to integrate with Microsoft Office applications. “People are starting to explore the feature set and figure out what else they can do,” says Macario.

But it is wireless services of various types that seem to be top of mind and growing in importance. Wireless related services also seem to have huge potential for inducing churn.

Of those who have deployed some sort of IP communications capability, about 71 percent are very or somewhat interested in FMC as a desktop replacement service, if the pricing is acceptable. About 83 percent would be interested in using it as an add-on or replacement for at least some desk devices.

Asked what else they would consider buying from the same vendor who sold the IP communications service or system, about 40 percent indicated wireless was on the list. About one third would buy Web collaboration tools like WebEx or Live Meeting services.

Demand seems to be just as high even for respondents who have not bought any IP communications service or capability. About 75 percent of those who haven’t yet bought are somewhat or very interested in fixed-mobile solutions.

Some 70 percent said somewhat or very likely to switch from their wireline service to an FMC offering and 70 percent said they would switch from their current mobile provider to get the capabilities.

About 71 percent of respondents who haven’t yet bought an IP solution would be interested in mobile desktop replacement as well.

Respondents say they would be willing to consider replacing at least some desktop phones if doing do saves about 20 percent from their total communications bill.

About 35 percent of respondents say they now pay for employee use of mobiles, picking up between 76 and 100 percent of the cost of the service.

Traditional telcos also are getting more traction and mindshare in the business VoIP space, it appears. For two years, traditional phone companies have got a really low share where it comes to SME executive perception about “who” provides business VoIP servicers, says Macario.

This year, telcos moved seven points higher. About 24 percent of respondents now view telcos as providers of business VoIP. Interestingly, 29 percent said cable companies come to mind as providers of business VoIP.

Non-traditional providers fare best at smaller firms. As firm size goes up, telcos do better. In the 50 to 99 employee segment, only 20 percent say non-traditional telcos are logical providers. And note: the cable gets 22 percent of the votes in that segment category.

That might be surprising for CLEC and other executives who think cable will not get traction in the SME space. “When a CLEC or a pureplay provider knocks at the door, they want to know who they are,” says Macario. “Cable has a brand. That helps.”

Cable already has surprising share at the lower end of the broadband access market. In the one-to-four-employees segment, “about half use cable modems,” says Macario.

“Once you get up to five to 19 employees, then 11 percent have T1s,” he notes. “DSL share is 47 percent, 25 percent T1 at slightly larger firms.”

Overall, says Macario, service providers, in a broad sense, aren’t doing a good job of communicating the benefit of making a switch to IP communications.

More Personalized Digital Media


U.S. consumers across all demographics and geographies appear to be adopting digital behavior that is far more personalized, distributed and niche oriented that executives at Avenue A/Razorfish previously had thought. In fact, a recent survey of 475 consumers found that the majority are personalizing their digital experiences and sampling a wide range of niche content.

Those behaviors span recommendation engines, blogs, customized start pages, video consumption, mobile behavior and use of social media. About 60 percent of respondents have customized their home pages, for example. And 82 percent use bookmarks “all” or “most” of the time.

But there is less use of more participatory features. About 18 percent subscribe to Really Simple Syndication feeds “all” or “most of the time.” About 39 percent read “most popular” or “most emailed” links “all” or “most” of the time.

Only about 12 percent use tag clouds “all” or “most” of the time.

According to the survey, nearly 70 percent of consumers read blogs on a routine
basis, and 41 percent have their own blog, or post frequently to blogs. In fact,
46 percent of consumers who responded to the survey read four or more blogs
on a regular basis. All of that blog activity is significantly cutting into the
reach of traditional media outlets, Avenue A/Razorfish notes.

Some 91 percent of consumers rely on the Web to get current news or information, vastly eclipsing more traditional outlets such as television, Avenue A/Razorfish says.

The growing use of niche content also can be seen in respondent consumption of music and video consumption as well. Some 67 percent of consumers watch videos on YouTube or similar sites on a regular basis and 42 percent purchase music online. Avenue A/Razorfish executives conclude that online video not only is becoming more pervasive but also is affecting offline consumption.

For example, 85 percent of consumers have watched a movie preview online before going to see the film at a theater. Some 58 percent of consumers have used a service to download (iTunes) or order (Netflix/Blockbuster) films online, and 71 percent have watched a TV show online.

Consumers also appear to react positively to recommendation engines and personalized services: 62 percent of respondents have made a purchase based on personalized recommendations (by retailers such as Amazon.com) while 72 percent find such services helpful.

Broadband Changes Just About Everything


Broadband might not change everything, but it changes an awful lot for communications and content service and application providers. For starters, broadband drives a tripling of user time spent online, says Nate Elliott, Jupiter Research senior analyst. That means users already spend more time online than with print media.

To the extent that service and application providers support their business models by advertising revenue, that means more revenue for Web sites and applications, less for print vehicles.

Where a typical user might spend three hours a week with print media, users in western Europe routinely spend four hours a week online. But there’s a huge difference. About two thirds of users who are 65 or older spend more than five hours a week with print media. Users between 15 and 24 are more than 400 percent less likely to do so.

By some recent measures, user involvement with content sites has eclipsed use of the Internet for communications. At least, that’s what the Online Publishers Association says.

Jupiter analysts say that does not mean “news” is dead, or that newspapers are necessarily dead, yet. News is the top type of online content, and users are 300 percent more likely to consume news than sports or video content. And rates of consumption of print haven’t changed in four years, Jupiter says.

Without a doubt, online video consumption is getting to be quite mainstream. Last year, 22 percent of Americans and 11 percent of Europeans reported watching video regularly, with 18 percent of French respondents saying they do so regularly, says Jupiter.

Overall, the video audience has doubled since 2003, and Jupiter estimates viewership will double again by 2011.

But something might have happened over the last year. A recent survey by the Pew Internet and American Life project found that 57 percent of all Internet users, and 57 percent of users between 30 and 49, have watched online video. In the oldest age demographic, 39 percent have watched an online video.

Possibly 10 to 18 percent of older users report watching video every day, the Pew research finds.

About a quarter of younger users between 15 and 24 say they watch online video regularly and are more than 12 times more likely to watch video as users who are 55 or older. That doesn’t necessarily mean those viewers have substituted online video for legacy TV, though, as reported TV watching hasn’t changed.

The intensity of involvement might be questionable, however. About 27 percent of users say they regularly multitask, using multiple media at once.

And while some surveys suggest communication activities are decreasing, Jupiter researchers say users “spend most of their online time communicating.” Compared to dial-up users, broadband users are 57 percent more likely to use email regularly, 147 percent more likely to use instant messaging regularly and are 125 percent more likely to blog.

More than 10 percent of European users visit social networks regularly and more than 40 percent visit such sites daily. In the U.S. market, use of social networking sites is spreading to older age groups. About 35 percent of social network users are between the ages of 35 and 54.

The thing about social networks is that they are in many ways substitutes for other activities such as email, instant messaging, texting, calling or entertainment sites and applications.

And while most new online activities are disproportionately engaged in by younger users, just about every new type of activity is being adopted by older users as well.

Orbital AI Compute Seems to be Coming, but Not at Scale, Right Away

With SpaceX going public on June 12, 2026, lots of investors will be pondering the feasibility of creating orbital data centers at scale. B...