Wireless substitution is getting lots of attention as voice landline market share shifts and "wireless-only" households register in the low-double-digits in some surveys. Yankee Group surveys have suggested that 15 percent of respondents no longer have wireline phone service.
Indeed, switched access telephony in the United States has decreased by 17 million lines from 2005 to 2008 and is expected to continue to lose another 10 million by 2011, says Patrick Monaghan, Yankee Group senior analyst.
But Monaghan doesn't think wireless substitution explains much of the incumbent line loss. In fact, he says, residential home phone service has only experienced a two-percent year-over-year loss from 2005 to 2008.
That's something on the order of five million subscribers. His conclusion: Most consumers are not cutting the cord. They simply are choosing cable or other providers.
So what's more challenging: wireless substitution or landline market share losses?
Monaghan argues there's an opportunity for incumbent local exchange carriers to hold on to switched access lines. The issue is that customers are deserting to other providers, and ILECs have to decide how long to hold out before offering their own VoIP services, presumably at prices that match generally-prevailing prices.
To the extent that millions of consumers seem to be ditching traditional landlines for lower-cost residential phone services, the issue is how long to wait before responding.
One line of thought is to build broadband-based and wireless revenues and simply let the market share for traditional lines drift slowly lower, rather than triggering an across-the-board price cut.
The other line of thinking--more prevalent in Europe, where retail landline losses have been much more significant--is to get into the game.
So how close are we, in North American markets, to a strategic rethinking of VoIP or "digital phone" service, which seems to be gaining traction as the preferred nomenclature?
And what would drive telco executives to rethink their current positions, which generally is to hold the line on legacy voice pricing and packaging?
AT&T, Verizon and SureWest Communications now offer VoIP or digital voice. So how hard should they push it? For which customer segments?
If Monaghan is right, wireless substitution is less an issue than "cheaper digital voice." But then how to explain the 15 percent of consumers who say they have abandoned wireline?
Click "related article" below to see more posts on the MetaSwitch community site on Facebook.
Saturday, June 14, 2008
Voice Switchers or Wireless Substitution?
Gary Kim was cited as a global "Power Mobile Influencer" by Forbes, ranked second in the world for coverage of the mobile business, and as a "top 10" telecom analyst. He is a member of Mensa, the international organization for people with IQs in the top two percent.
Are Devices Key to Engagement?
So why don't users "love" their communication service providers? At some level, you can blame the quality of customer service. In some cases you might blame the service itself. The answer is vitally important.
Businesses and products that customers "love"--are highly emotionally involved iwth--make more money than businesses and products that users are not emotionally bonded with.
So ask yourself: does anybody you know "love" their dial tone? Does anybody you know love their bitstream?
Ask yourself a different question, then. Do you know anybody who loves their car, loves a car, loves a perfume, a set of golf clubs or a recent movie featuring four Manhattan women?
You're getting different answers, aren't you? So here's the point: at a basic level, communication service providers will make higher margins, and more sales, if they somehow can create an experience so personal that users actually create emotional bonds of the sort they have with their favorite brands, activities and pursuits.
So here's why Apple's iPhone or RIM's BlackBerry are important. They are the closest thing the communications industry has found to a service attribute that does create an emotional bond.
So think about the video entertainment business. Do you know many people, aside from those using DirecTV, who actually "love" their video provider? To the extent the service does create emotional bonds, how are those bonds created? With the actual programming, not the packager.
Igt's sort of the same problem. People might love watching a favorite movie or TV series. They will be emotionally involved with the content. It is doubtful they are so involved with the retail packager of that programming.
So far, we know one new thing: you can get customers who are passionate about their devices. To the extent that those devices require communications, service providers benefit. So pay attention to devices. They are the "hot," affective parts of your relationship with customers. The quality and terms of service are the "cool" parts. You have to do those things right, but you won't gain much loyalty by doing so.
For that, you need the passion only a user experience empowered by a device can provide. At least so far. We've got a long ways to go before an application or service really is capable of creating the sort of emotional bond that does create higher margins.
See related posts on the MetaSwitch community on Facebook (click on "Related article" below)
Businesses and products that customers "love"--are highly emotionally involved iwth--make more money than businesses and products that users are not emotionally bonded with.
So ask yourself: does anybody you know "love" their dial tone? Does anybody you know love their bitstream?
Ask yourself a different question, then. Do you know anybody who loves their car, loves a car, loves a perfume, a set of golf clubs or a recent movie featuring four Manhattan women?
You're getting different answers, aren't you? So here's the point: at a basic level, communication service providers will make higher margins, and more sales, if they somehow can create an experience so personal that users actually create emotional bonds of the sort they have with their favorite brands, activities and pursuits.
So here's why Apple's iPhone or RIM's BlackBerry are important. They are the closest thing the communications industry has found to a service attribute that does create an emotional bond.
So think about the video entertainment business. Do you know many people, aside from those using DirecTV, who actually "love" their video provider? To the extent the service does create emotional bonds, how are those bonds created? With the actual programming, not the packager.
Igt's sort of the same problem. People might love watching a favorite movie or TV series. They will be emotionally involved with the content. It is doubtful they are so involved with the retail packager of that programming.
So far, we know one new thing: you can get customers who are passionate about their devices. To the extent that those devices require communications, service providers benefit. So pay attention to devices. They are the "hot," affective parts of your relationship with customers. The quality and terms of service are the "cool" parts. You have to do those things right, but you won't gain much loyalty by doing so.
For that, you need the passion only a user experience empowered by a device can provide. At least so far. We've got a long ways to go before an application or service really is capable of creating the sort of emotional bond that does create higher margins.
See related posts on the MetaSwitch community on Facebook (click on "Related article" below)
Gary Kim was cited as a global "Power Mobile Influencer" by Forbes, ranked second in the world for coverage of the mobile business, and as a "top 10" telecom analyst. He is a member of Mensa, the international organization for people with IQs in the top two percent.
Should Telcos Have Gotten into IPTV?
With the news from comScore that U.S. Internet users viewed 11.5 billion online videos in March 2008, a 13-percent gain versus February and a 64-percent gain from March 2007, it probably is inevitable that some observers will question the commitment telephone companies are making to multichannel video entertainment.
In March, 135 million Internet users spent an average of 204 minutes viewing online video. That represents more than 40 percent of the U.S. population. So given the clear trend to more consumption of "over the top" video, it is perhaps inevitable that a reexamination of the video business case should occur logical to some observers.
To put matters simply, some might argue that telcos should not have gotten into entertainment video, much less IPTV, at all.
As someone who has argued that most telcos will not make much profit--if any--directly from video services, but who nevertheless sees no way for telcos to avoid getting into the linear, multichannel video business, here's the rebuttal to the "over the top" video is the way to go argument.
One might--and executives have--similarly debated the wisdom of replacing copper access infrastructure with optical fiber access as well. And the logic is quite similar.
In the access services market, telcos and cable will for some time essentially trade market share. Cable will gain voice share while telcos gain video share. Those are huge markets and the revenue attached to them likewise is huge.
To really take significant share, telcos will have to replace the copper drops with some form of optical access, whatever the "last 100-feet" or "last 5,000 feet" technology happens to be. The decision is a strategic one; not driven by the sheer "return on investment" thesis for the one new service.
In its most-basic form, the argument is just this simple: fiber investments will allow telcos to take enough video share from cable operators to offset voice line losses. It's a strategic answer to one question: "do you want to be in business in 15 years?"
The argument for most telcos (AT&T and Verizon have enough scale to support a different business case) is simply that without fiber access, incumbent telcos will not be able to trade share effectively.
Fiber also creates the foundation for better competitiveness in the broadband access business as well, as speeds continue to increase. But again, that is an "invest to support a business I already have" argument, not an "invest to create a new business" logic.
So back to IPTV. Telcos could have chosen some other delivery platform than IP to support their initial multichannel video efforts. Verizon did. But Verizon also has an optical access network supporting three distinct wavelengths already. So devoting one wavelength for linear video just makes sense.
Other providers have decided that two wavelengths makes more sense (at least for the moment). In that case, on the assumption that an all-digital, all-IP platform is used, IPTV simply becomes one more IP application in a two-wavelength network.
Of course, "IPTV" can mean lots of things. In the sense we have been discussing it, it is just a transmission protocol. Over time, the "IP" platform is important for supporting interactive applications as well, but we are some distance away from the point where "interactive" television features represent material revenue opportunities.
The exception, of course, is targeted advertising. That arguably is a greater opportunity for cable operators than for telcos, at the moment.
Still, should telcos have avoided the fiber investments that make IPTV possible, or should they simply have plumbed for some way to monetize "over the top" video? That's an even less compelling argument.
The most-recent comScore found that 80 percent of online video viewers spent fewer than three minutes viewing video per day. Compare that to the average of more than four hours of U.S. daily TV viewing per person.
And usage is not the big issue. Usage does not necessarily mean revenue for a network access provider, even if it does represent an advertising or subscription opportunity for Web-based content packagers. One might argue that telcos could have invested in their own "over the top" content efforts, but that still rests on the assumption that big pipes exist to deliver that content.
Whatever telcos decide to do in the "over the top" area, they still could not have avoided investing in optical access for other reasons, primarily because virtually all of the new service or application revenues are based on broadband connectivity.
Given that imperative, the payback for optical access in the near term rests heavily on new linear video revenues.
The multichannel video business represents well over $100 billion in annual service provider revenues, exclusive of advertising revenue. All over the top providers together do not likely make more than several hundreds of millions in current revenue.
The other rationale for offering linear video is that the payback from optical access does not rest entirely on revenue gains. Part of the return comes from avoided customer churn and partly from reduced operating costs.
The argument that telcos should never have invested in linear multichannel video can be made. It just isn't clear the revenue upside supports the case. That doesn't mean over the top video isn't a growing opportunity of some type. It simply remains the case, however, that the amount of revenue all other emerging forms of video can generate pale before what is possible by taking some share of the existing $100 billion-plus multichannel video share.
See other related posts on the MetaSwitch community site on Facebook (click on "Related article" below).
In March, 135 million Internet users spent an average of 204 minutes viewing online video. That represents more than 40 percent of the U.S. population. So given the clear trend to more consumption of "over the top" video, it is perhaps inevitable that a reexamination of the video business case should occur logical to some observers.
To put matters simply, some might argue that telcos should not have gotten into entertainment video, much less IPTV, at all.
As someone who has argued that most telcos will not make much profit--if any--directly from video services, but who nevertheless sees no way for telcos to avoid getting into the linear, multichannel video business, here's the rebuttal to the "over the top" video is the way to go argument.
One might--and executives have--similarly debated the wisdom of replacing copper access infrastructure with optical fiber access as well. And the logic is quite similar.
In the access services market, telcos and cable will for some time essentially trade market share. Cable will gain voice share while telcos gain video share. Those are huge markets and the revenue attached to them likewise is huge.
To really take significant share, telcos will have to replace the copper drops with some form of optical access, whatever the "last 100-feet" or "last 5,000 feet" technology happens to be. The decision is a strategic one; not driven by the sheer "return on investment" thesis for the one new service.
In its most-basic form, the argument is just this simple: fiber investments will allow telcos to take enough video share from cable operators to offset voice line losses. It's a strategic answer to one question: "do you want to be in business in 15 years?"
The argument for most telcos (AT&T and Verizon have enough scale to support a different business case) is simply that without fiber access, incumbent telcos will not be able to trade share effectively.
Fiber also creates the foundation for better competitiveness in the broadband access business as well, as speeds continue to increase. But again, that is an "invest to support a business I already have" argument, not an "invest to create a new business" logic.
So back to IPTV. Telcos could have chosen some other delivery platform than IP to support their initial multichannel video efforts. Verizon did. But Verizon also has an optical access network supporting three distinct wavelengths already. So devoting one wavelength for linear video just makes sense.
Other providers have decided that two wavelengths makes more sense (at least for the moment). In that case, on the assumption that an all-digital, all-IP platform is used, IPTV simply becomes one more IP application in a two-wavelength network.
Of course, "IPTV" can mean lots of things. In the sense we have been discussing it, it is just a transmission protocol. Over time, the "IP" platform is important for supporting interactive applications as well, but we are some distance away from the point where "interactive" television features represent material revenue opportunities.
The exception, of course, is targeted advertising. That arguably is a greater opportunity for cable operators than for telcos, at the moment.
Still, should telcos have avoided the fiber investments that make IPTV possible, or should they simply have plumbed for some way to monetize "over the top" video? That's an even less compelling argument.
The most-recent comScore found that 80 percent of online video viewers spent fewer than three minutes viewing video per day. Compare that to the average of more than four hours of U.S. daily TV viewing per person.
And usage is not the big issue. Usage does not necessarily mean revenue for a network access provider, even if it does represent an advertising or subscription opportunity for Web-based content packagers. One might argue that telcos could have invested in their own "over the top" content efforts, but that still rests on the assumption that big pipes exist to deliver that content.
Whatever telcos decide to do in the "over the top" area, they still could not have avoided investing in optical access for other reasons, primarily because virtually all of the new service or application revenues are based on broadband connectivity.
Given that imperative, the payback for optical access in the near term rests heavily on new linear video revenues.
The multichannel video business represents well over $100 billion in annual service provider revenues, exclusive of advertising revenue. All over the top providers together do not likely make more than several hundreds of millions in current revenue.
The other rationale for offering linear video is that the payback from optical access does not rest entirely on revenue gains. Part of the return comes from avoided customer churn and partly from reduced operating costs.
The argument that telcos should never have invested in linear multichannel video can be made. It just isn't clear the revenue upside supports the case. That doesn't mean over the top video isn't a growing opportunity of some type. It simply remains the case, however, that the amount of revenue all other emerging forms of video can generate pale before what is possible by taking some share of the existing $100 billion-plus multichannel video share.
See other related posts on the MetaSwitch community site on Facebook (click on "Related article" below).
Gary Kim was cited as a global "Power Mobile Influencer" by Forbes, ranked second in the world for coverage of the mobile business, and as a "top 10" telecom analyst. He is a member of Mensa, the international organization for people with IQs in the top two percent.
Mobile Data Market Segments
Aside from text messaging, which continues to grow, many observers would say that sales of PC cards are the second most important new mobile data revenue stream, increasing use of smart phone data plans notwithstanding.
Within the smart phone segment, "almost all of the evidence I've seen to date shows that the market is deeply divided into two groups," says Michael Mace, Rubicon Consulting principal.
When surveyed, most people in the United States and Europe say they will not pay anything extra for mobile device features other than voice and SMS, Mace argues.
"They'll use those features if you give them away for free, but as soon as you ask them to pay, about 65 percent of the population drops out," he says.
"Fortunately, the other 35 percent of the U.S. and European population is willing to pay extra for mobile data features," Mace says.
The issue is that at least four distinct market segments can be identified. There are PC card users, then three smart phone segments, including users focused on entertainment, communications and information. Different features are important to each user segment.
So there probably is no single device design that wins in all segments.
The issue is that at least four distinct market segments can be identified. There are PC card users, then three smart phone segments, including users focused on entertainment, communications and information. Different features are important to each user segment.
So there probably is no single device design that wins in all segments.
Gary Kim was cited as a global "Power Mobile Influencer" by Forbes, ranked second in the world for coverage of the mobile business, and as a "top 10" telecom analyst. He is a member of Mensa, the international organization for people with IQs in the top two percent.
4G Initially is Cellular with More Bandwidth
I've learned over the years that when assessing trends, it's always safer to watch what people and organizations do, rather than what they say. Because people and organizations often say one thing and then do another.
Consider IPTV. It gets sold to investors on the value of enhanced applications. It gets bought by real-world consumers largely as a substitute for cable TV. IP telephony is touted for its enhanced features. It mostly gets bought as a substitute for plain old telephone service.
Now fourth generation networks are touted as a platform for machine-to-machine applications that will result in mobile penetration as high as 400 percent or more.
So watch what people spend their money on.
Sprint Nextel executives have been touting new machine-to-machine applications and mobile broadband, saying WiMAX will not simply be 3G with more bandwidth. WiMAX supporters, in fact, often talk about the "mobile Internet" as the way WiMAX will be different from 3G and upcoming LTE networks.
So it is instructive that Clearwire CEO Ben Wolff now is saying Clearwire will focus on "residential broadband, residential voice, mobile broadband and mobile voice" going forward.
Whatever may develop in the future, the near term business plan is fairly simple. Despite what its backers say, 4G networks are, in fact, simply going to take market share from other providers of existing services.
Gary Kim was cited as a global "Power Mobile Influencer" by Forbes, ranked second in the world for coverage of the mobile business, and as a "top 10" telecom analyst. He is a member of Mensa, the international organization for people with IQs in the top two percent.
Is Tip Jar a Business Model?
Piper Jaffray analyst Gene Munster chatted with 20 Apple developers recently and found as many as 71 percent of new iPhone apps might be offered to users for free.To be sure, people sometimes write apps for no reason other than the recognition. But is there a business model here?
One might ask whether the tip jar is a business model. For street musicians, it is, if not a terribly good business model.
So is the "freemium" model any better? " Should developers give away an app or service for free, acquire a lot of customers very efficiently through word of mouth, referral networks, organic search marketing and then offer premium priced value added services or an enhanced version of your service to your customer base? Lots of people have, and will continue to try.
The typical business model for a "freemium" approach is ad support for the "free" services and then subscriptions for the enhanced services. The eternal issue is perhaps how much to offer free and how much to offer for fee. And to the objection that users might be put off when advertising finally is possible, that's just a risk that must be taken. One has to create a user base before advertising is possible.
Of course, it is conceivable that most iPhone apps developers are working on are widgets of some sort. So it is entirely possible no direct business model is envisioned, other than reputation enhancement that ultimately could have some commercial benefit. We'll have to wait and see.
So far, subscriptions and advertising are the direct ways to create a business model. I suppose donations have to be included in the direct model as well. "Enhance your reputation so you can sell something else" is the leading indirect model.
Gary Kim was cited as a global "Power Mobile Influencer" by Forbes, ranked second in the world for coverage of the mobile business, and as a "top 10" telecom analyst. He is a member of Mensa, the international organization for people with IQs in the top two percent.
Friday, June 13, 2008
2% Android Handset Penetration by December 2008?
Strategy Analytics analysts predict that Android, backed by an alliance of more than 30 mobile phone operators, handset makers, software firms and component manufacturers, will be installed on two per cent of smart phones by December 2008.
That might be an aggressive forecast. At mid-year, it is overstating matters to say even a trickle of devices even are being shown in prototype form.
British chipmaker ARM, for example, has unveiled a prototype mobile phone that will use the operating system Android, launched by Google in November 2007.
The prototype features a Web browser, map software, multimedia applications, text messaging, calendar functions, email and other mobile phone functions.
Designed, obviously, to rival Apple's iPhone, ARM's prototype uses Google as its Web browser home page, Google Mail as its email application, and Google Maps for navigation.
Although the Android project is at a relatively early stage, the first Android-based mobile phones are expected to be launched in the market later this year, reports the Telegraph.
It's hard to see how two percent penetration is possible with such a late launch, even considering the Christmas holiday push that might be possible.
Gary Kim was cited as a global "Power Mobile Influencer" by Forbes, ranked second in the world for coverage of the mobile business, and as a "top 10" telecom analyst. He is a member of Mensa, the international organization for people with IQs in the top two percent.
59% Willing to Cut the Cord?
A new poll conducted by Los Angeles Business found 59 percent saying it was indeed an option.
The other 41 percent said that it was not an option, and might be considered "hard core" wireless substitution resisters.
That's not especially good news for providers of landline voice service, if respondents are at all serious.
The other 41 percent said that it was not an option, and might be considered "hard core" wireless substitution resisters.
That's not especially good news for providers of landline voice service, if respondents are at all serious.
Gary Kim was cited as a global "Power Mobile Influencer" by Forbes, ranked second in the world for coverage of the mobile business, and as a "top 10" telecom analyst. He is a member of Mensa, the international organization for people with IQs in the top two percent.
Verizon Introducing Wireless-Broadband, Wireless-TV Bundles
Verizon Communications is introducing new dual-play packages based on wireless and broadband service, or wireless plus TV service. If a customer is eligible for FiOS TV, a triple play package can be built.
The Flex Double Play bundle will provide discounts ranging from $8 to $12 a month for those who combine a Verizon Wireless plan with broadband or FiOS TV. Adding FiOS TV, Verizon's cable-TV service, on top of wireless and broadband yields another $8 a month in savings.
The move is a step beyond the old requirement that customers buy a landline voice line to get the best price on a DSL service.
The discount applies to DSL service with downloads at 3 Mbps or 20 Mbps FiOS service.
The package is not available for the 7 Mbps DSL or the 50 Mbps FiOS services, though.
The Flex Double Play bundle will provide discounts ranging from $8 to $12 a month for those who combine a Verizon Wireless plan with broadband or FiOS TV. Adding FiOS TV, Verizon's cable-TV service, on top of wireless and broadband yields another $8 a month in savings.
The move is a step beyond the old requirement that customers buy a landline voice line to get the best price on a DSL service.
The discount applies to DSL service with downloads at 3 Mbps or 20 Mbps FiOS service.
The package is not available for the 7 Mbps DSL or the 50 Mbps FiOS services, though.
Gary Kim was cited as a global "Power Mobile Influencer" by Forbes, ranked second in the world for coverage of the mobile business, and as a "top 10" telecom analyst. He is a member of Mensa, the international organization for people with IQs in the top two percent.
Verizon Growth Profile Has Changed
The business climate for tier one providers is quite a bit better than it was just several years ago, when some analysts feared the best tier one telcos could do was hold steady in terms of revenue and profit. "In the past 18 months, we talked a lot about growth for Verizon," says Greg Miller, Deutsche Bank Securities analyst.
"Only two to three years ago, it was something that many people didn't think was going to happen, considering what was going on with the competitive dynamic in cable."
"Clearly, we've started to see some fairly significant growth within the business," he says. Also, the growth is "not just confined to one segment in the business."
"Only two to three years ago, it was something that many people didn't think was going to happen, considering what was going on with the competitive dynamic in cable."
"Clearly, we've started to see some fairly significant growth within the business," he says. Also, the growth is "not just confined to one segment in the business."
Gary Kim was cited as a global "Power Mobile Influencer" by Forbes, ranked second in the world for coverage of the mobile business, and as a "top 10" telecom analyst. He is a member of Mensa, the international organization for people with IQs in the top two percent.
Global Facebook Traffic Catches MySpace
April 2008 was the first time Facebook traffic officially caught up to MySpace in terms of unique monthly worldwide visitors, according to data released by Comscore. Both services are attracting around 115 million people to their respective sites each month.
But there are clear regional differences. It looks like MySpace continues to hold a steady lead over Facebook in the U.S. market. That being the case, most of Facebook’s growth has come in international markets.
Facebook added 75 million monthly uniques over the last twelve month, but just 13 million of those visitors are located in the United States.
Gary Kim was cited as a global "Power Mobile Influencer" by Forbes, ranked second in the world for coverage of the mobile business, and as a "top 10" telecom analyst. He is a member of Mensa, the international organization for people with IQs in the top two percent.
Thursday, June 12, 2008
7.8 Million Business VoIP Lines by 2012
Business VoIP lines to Total 7.8 million by 2012, say analysts at Pike & Fischer. If one assumes there are something on the order of 110 million business lines now in service, that's about seven percent. Some of us think business VoIP "lines" will be higher, but disguised in the form of IP trunks. It will be very hard to count them, since no regulatory agency records such things. Nor is it clear many IP trunking providers will release figures relating to "lines" rather than "IP trunks" in service.
If you ask me, 7.8 million is a low forecast.
If you ask me, 7.8 million is a low forecast.
Gary Kim was cited as a global "Power Mobile Influencer" by Forbes, ranked second in the world for coverage of the mobile business, and as a "top 10" telecom analyst. He is a member of Mensa, the international organization for people with IQs in the top two percent.
Carphone Warehouse Blames Wireless for Fixed Broadband Sales Dip
You might not be surprised if a broadband access provider blames either housing or economic sluggishness for lower than expected unit growth, in the U.K. or U.S. markets. So it's probably no big deal that Carphone Warehouse blames a housing slowdown for lower take-up of additional broadband lines.
But note this tidbit: Carphone Warehouse also says "mobile broadband sales" are partly to blame for lower fixed broadband sales, warning it expects lower revenue next year if the trend continues.
So the question logically arises: are some U.K. consumers substituting wireless broadband connections for fixed connections?
Gary Kim was cited as a global "Power Mobile Influencer" by Forbes, ranked second in the world for coverage of the mobile business, and as a "top 10" telecom analyst. He is a member of Mensa, the international organization for people with IQs in the top two percent.
Execs Know Change is Coming; Just 30% Claim Insight
There's no question global telecom service provider executives know big changes are coming. There's universal agreement that new revenue sources will displace voice as the industry mainstay.There's wide agreement that traditional voice revenues will shrink for a variety of reasons. A shift of some usage to Web-mediated or IM-mediated providers and applications is one factor. But so are other IP-based and enhanced versions of voice communications that will substitute for legacy voice. Higher-fidelity voice is one example, say researchers at Telco 2.0.
What also remains clear is that just 30 percent of executives claim to know "quite well" the additional needs users may have for new voice and messaging products. At this point, that's refreshing. The industry has been surprised by the biggest innovations in demand on a fairly regular basis.
Mobile wasn't thought to be such a big deal. But mobile accounts now surpass landlines in many countries. Text messaging emerged from nowhere. So executives thought multimedia messaging would be big as well. It hasn't worked out that way.
Global executives were certain 3G would create huge new revenue streams. So far it hasn't. So there's nothing wrong with an attitude of openness to innovations that might develop, for demand that could exist, and for applications with revenue potential one might not suspect.
If history teaches us anything, it is to anticipate the unexpected.
Gary Kim was cited as a global "Power Mobile Influencer" by Forbes, ranked second in the world for coverage of the mobile business, and as a "top 10" telecom analyst. He is a member of Mensa, the international organization for people with IQs in the top two percent.
Wednesday, June 11, 2008
Comcast Upgrades Sacramento, Davis, Roseville and Placerville Calif. Cable Modem Speeds
Comcast is doubling its highest Internet speeds for residential customers in the Sacramento, Davis, Roseville and Placerville areas to download speeds of 16 megabits per second and upload speeds of 2 Mbps.
Customers who already get Comcast's highest-speed service, which offers 8 Mbps downloads and 1 Mbps uploads, will be automatically upgraded to the faster service at no charge. The automatic upgrade to the new higher-speed service begins June 31.
Comcast offers two other, lower-tier services of 4 and 6 Mbps. Those customers would need to sign up for Blast! to receive the higher speeds.
Comcast and other cable operators typically conduct such market-by-market upgrades when competing against higher-speed telephone company offers. AT&T is a factor, but in Roseville, SureWest Communications offers a 10 Mbps Ethernet access service broadly to consumer customers.
Gary Kim was cited as a global "Power Mobile Influencer" by Forbes, ranked second in the world for coverage of the mobile business, and as a "top 10" telecom analyst. He is a member of Mensa, the international organization for people with IQs in the top two percent.
Mobile Transaction Processing: $1.9 Billion
The market for mobile digital commerce services grew to $1.9 billion in 2007, say researchers at S2 Data Corp.
Digital commerce service providers process the financial transactions that monetize premium content from music, video and gaming companies over the mobile operator's network.
By 2012, the market for mobile digital commerce services will grow to $1.9 billion.
Operators are seeing data revenue exceed 30 percent of total service revenue as the ring tone market shifts from a primary to a partial revenue stream in a premium content mix that includes ringback tones, games, full track downloads and mobile video, S2 says.
Digital commerce service providers process the financial transactions that monetize premium content from music, video and gaming companies over the mobile operator's network.
By 2012, the market for mobile digital commerce services will grow to $1.9 billion.
Operators are seeing data revenue exceed 30 percent of total service revenue as the ring tone market shifts from a primary to a partial revenue stream in a premium content mix that includes ringback tones, games, full track downloads and mobile video, S2 says.
Gary Kim was cited as a global "Power Mobile Influencer" by Forbes, ranked second in the world for coverage of the mobile business, and as a "top 10" telecom analyst. He is a member of Mensa, the international organization for people with IQs in the top two percent.
Tolerance for Email Outages?
Oddly enough, though many users will tell you that email is more important than voice, they also seem more tolerant of email than voice outages.
Most organizations put up with periodic outages and most seem to tolerate that state of affairs.
Most organizations put up with periodic outages and most seem to tolerate that state of affairs.
But email seems to benefit from different expectations, in particular the store and forward use model.
The fact that voice mail is the same sort of experience doesn't seem to detract from the possibility of a synchronous session at least part of the time.
Curious, don't you think?
Gary Kim was cited as a global "Power Mobile Influencer" by Forbes, ranked second in the world for coverage of the mobile business, and as a "top 10" telecom analyst. He is a member of Mensa, the international organization for people with IQs in the top two percent.
WiMAX Threatens 3G, Fixed Wireless
WiMAX provides the right mix of
features and pricing to appeal to consumers, though business users will provide more of a challenge, say researchers at In-Stat.
The commercial user frequently requires ubiquitous coverage, which will be an issue initially.
"While early WiMAX network coverage will not be as large as 3G cellular, it will be adequate to appeal to consumers," says Daryl Schoolar, In-Stat analyst.
"When respondents were presented with
service examples and picked the one they most preferred, the one representing WiMAX was picked more than two-to-one over the one representing 3G cellular data, he says
Respondents are very interested in a wireless broadband service that
will allow them to connect multiple devices under a single service
plan, Schoolar notes.
Respondents also say they want a service that can meet both their at home and away Internet needs.
For this reason, fixed broadband operators are vulnerable to losing subscribers to WiMAX.
Survey respondents reported increased usage of public wireless broadband between 2006 and 2007, with expectations for further increases in 2008.
features and pricing to appeal to consumers, though business users will provide more of a challenge, say researchers at In-Stat.
The commercial user frequently requires ubiquitous coverage, which will be an issue initially.
"While early WiMAX network coverage will not be as large as 3G cellular, it will be adequate to appeal to consumers," says Daryl Schoolar, In-Stat analyst.
"When respondents were presented with
service examples and picked the one they most preferred, the one representing WiMAX was picked more than two-to-one over the one representing 3G cellular data, he says
Respondents are very interested in a wireless broadband service that
will allow them to connect multiple devices under a single service
plan, Schoolar notes.
Respondents also say they want a service that can meet both their at home and away Internet needs.
For this reason, fixed broadband operators are vulnerable to losing subscribers to WiMAX.
Survey respondents reported increased usage of public wireless broadband between 2006 and 2007, with expectations for further increases in 2008.
Gary Kim was cited as a global "Power Mobile Influencer" by Forbes, ranked second in the world for coverage of the mobile business, and as a "top 10" telecom analyst. He is a member of Mensa, the international organization for people with IQs in the top two percent.
Belgacom Eyes Cable
A growing strategic reality in the global telecom business is the need to "go out of region" to fuel growth. Belgacom, for example, is offering €420m to the cable companies and municipal shareholders of the Belgian cablenet Interkabel.
In a statement the incumbent telco said that its offer was €70m more than had been made by its rival Telenet and 40 percent more than the upfront payment offered to the municipalities.
In this case there is the additional tactical consideration of buying customer base and revenue that is denied a key in-region competitor.
But make no mistake: organic growth is slow, tedious work these days. Leaps occur mostly through acquisition.
In a statement the incumbent telco said that its offer was €70m more than had been made by its rival Telenet and 40 percent more than the upfront payment offered to the municipalities.
In this case there is the additional tactical consideration of buying customer base and revenue that is denied a key in-region competitor.
But make no mistake: organic growth is slow, tedious work these days. Leaps occur mostly through acquisition.
Gary Kim was cited as a global "Power Mobile Influencer" by Forbes, ranked second in the world for coverage of the mobile business, and as a "top 10" telecom analyst. He is a member of Mensa, the international organization for people with IQs in the top two percent.
Sprint Churn Bottoming?
Sprint Nextel has lost one million customers since the end of 2007, a fact mirrored in surveys of ChangeWave Research members.The more important news, though, may be a possible bottoming. It is possible Sprint finally has stabilized its churn problem.
In March 2008, for example, a survey of 3,597 consumers found 11 percent reporting they are Sprint Nextel customers.
Some 31 percent said they use Verizon while 28 percent reported using and AT&T. To be sure, that indication of market share among survey respondents does not track very well with other measurements of market share, such as the carriers own quarterly and annual reports of subscribership.
No surprise: Sprint customers are least satisfied of all of the major provider customers. When asked how likely they were to change service providers in the next 6 months, a relatively high percentage of Sprint customers (21 percent) said they're likely to switch, compared to just 10 percent of Verizon customers and 11 percent for AT&T' users.
When people do change cellular service providers, very few are switching to Sprint (three percent ). The good news is that the number of switchers looking to join Sprint actually turned up one percentage point since the last ChangeWave survey.
Gary Kim was cited as a global "Power Mobile Influencer" by Forbes, ranked second in the world for coverage of the mobile business, and as a "top 10" telecom analyst. He is a member of Mensa, the international organization for people with IQs in the top two percent.
Tuesday, June 10, 2008
iPhone Sales to Triple?
Right now it's hard to say for sure, but there's sound logic behind predictions that Apple now will attempt to dramatically increase sales of iPhones, now that carriers are subsidizing the device. The rationale?
Richard Windsor, Nomura analyst, notes that higher volumes are necessary. "Apple must increase its volumes very substantially to make up the difference” between what it was making before, and what it will be making now on subsidized devices, without a recurring revenue share.
Windsor notes that a dollar from revenue share has EBIT margins of 100 percent, while hardware revenues have an EBIT margin of closer to 30 percent.
So a simple back of the envelope analysis suggests that if Apple wants revenue to grow, it will have to sell three times as many devices at the lower margins, to make up for what it might have earned under the old business model.
Richard Windsor, Nomura analyst, notes that higher volumes are necessary. "Apple must increase its volumes very substantially to make up the difference” between what it was making before, and what it will be making now on subsidized devices, without a recurring revenue share.
Windsor notes that a dollar from revenue share has EBIT margins of 100 percent, while hardware revenues have an EBIT margin of closer to 30 percent.
So a simple back of the envelope analysis suggests that if Apple wants revenue to grow, it will have to sell three times as many devices at the lower margins, to make up for what it might have earned under the old business model.
Gary Kim was cited as a global "Power Mobile Influencer" by Forbes, ranked second in the world for coverage of the mobile business, and as a "top 10" telecom analyst. He is a member of Mensa, the international organization for people with IQs in the top two percent.
Cheaper iPhone = Digital One Rate
Some of you may remember "Digital One Rate," the first "bucket of minutes" wireless voice plan, launched by AT&T when Dan Hesse, now Sprint Nextel CEO, ran the AT&T Wireless business. You might also remember that Digital One Rate ignited a huge wave of wireless voice usage.
It is conceivable that the new 3G iPhone, with price points aimed at the "the other side of the chasm" crowd (the mass market), as well as the inevitable responses by competitors, could well ignite a new round of data services use by fairly "average" mobile users.
A $200 iPhone with 3G is just the sort of thing that could trigger dramatically-expanded mobile Web and mobile broadband use, driving smart phones and mobile Web services into the lead edge of the "early majority" market that mobile providers will have to crack if 3G is to become a user mainstay.
With the latest release, Apple is taking aim at the enterprise segment, one of several key smart phone segments, as well as the broader "entertainment-focused" segment. Some of us are in the less-well-defined segment that rely relies on the Web, even if we use BlackBerries, so the mobile Web element also now comes into play.
The point is that the 3G iPhone might one day be seen as a key turning point for mobile broadband.
It is conceivable that the new 3G iPhone, with price points aimed at the "the other side of the chasm" crowd (the mass market), as well as the inevitable responses by competitors, could well ignite a new round of data services use by fairly "average" mobile users.
A $200 iPhone with 3G is just the sort of thing that could trigger dramatically-expanded mobile Web and mobile broadband use, driving smart phones and mobile Web services into the lead edge of the "early majority" market that mobile providers will have to crack if 3G is to become a user mainstay.
With the latest release, Apple is taking aim at the enterprise segment, one of several key smart phone segments, as well as the broader "entertainment-focused" segment. Some of us are in the less-well-defined segment that rely relies on the Web, even if we use BlackBerries, so the mobile Web element also now comes into play.
The point is that the 3G iPhone might one day be seen as a key turning point for mobile broadband.
Gary Kim was cited as a global "Power Mobile Influencer" by Forbes, ranked second in the world for coverage of the mobile business, and as a "top 10" telecom analyst. He is a member of Mensa, the international organization for people with IQs in the top two percent.
iPhone, Other Devices Will Drive Data Revenue to $70 Billion
Goldman Sachs analysts Simona Jankowski and Thomas Lee now predict there will be 15 percent compounded annual growth in revenue in smart phones over the next five years as a result of “more affordable smart phone devices and focus by handset vendors following iPhone.”
That will result in increased email, Web and other data uses, leading to a ballooning of telecom services revenue, from $19 billion last year to $70 billion in 2012.
That will result in increased email, Web and other data uses, leading to a ballooning of telecom services revenue, from $19 billion last year to $70 billion in 2012.
Gary Kim was cited as a global "Power Mobile Influencer" by Forbes, ranked second in the world for coverage of the mobile business, and as a "top 10" telecom analyst. He is a member of Mensa, the international organization for people with IQs in the top two percent.
BlackBerry Vs. iPhone
The most-important take-away from the new 3G Apple iPhone announcement is the lower prices, which we flagged up as a barrier to uptake in the first version, says Steven Hartley, senior analyst at Ovum. But Alec Saunders over at Saunderslog.com thinks BlackBerry will start to feel some real heat, now that it is clear the iPhone and BlackBerry devices will be priced head to head.
Many of us BlackBerry users might concur, but also might note that we are quite attached to the reliability of key entry. If Apple can do just a bit better on that front, many of us will find few barriers to switching. Right now, it remains an issue.
Many of us BlackBerry users might concur, but also might note that we are quite attached to the reliability of key entry. If Apple can do just a bit better on that front, many of us will find few barriers to switching. Right now, it remains an issue.
Gary Kim was cited as a global "Power Mobile Influencer" by Forbes, ranked second in the world for coverage of the mobile business, and as a "top 10" telecom analyst. He is a member of Mensa, the international organization for people with IQs in the top two percent.
YouTube for Business
Cisco is announcing what will surely be seen as "YouTube for business." Enterprise TV, a new YouTube-like video posting and viewing service aimed at enterprises, aims to make it easier for companies to do everything related to video: creating it, capturing it, and playing it.
Employees can capture video of meetings or training programs and upload it immediately to their enterprise networks, where employees can watch it on demand.
Employees can capture video of meetings or training programs and upload it immediately to their enterprise networks, where employees can watch it on demand.
Gary Kim was cited as a global "Power Mobile Influencer" by Forbes, ranked second in the world for coverage of the mobile business, and as a "top 10" telecom analyst. He is a member of Mensa, the international organization for people with IQs in the top two percent.
Social Nets Used by 22% of "40 or Older" Internet Users
About 22 percent of U.S. Internet users ages 40 and over use social networking Web sites, according to JWT BOOM/ThirdAge. A separate survey by ExactTarget fount that 39 percent of 35 to 44 year-olds used social networks, use fell sharply with age.
Only 13 percent of 55 to 64 year-olds were social networkers, and only four percent of those ages 65 and older used social networking.
About 75 percent of Internet users ages 15 to 24 use social networking sites, ExactTarget finds.
The implications are most significant for marketers who rely on word of mouth. According to the JWT BOOM/ThirdAge study, more than 75 percent of 40-and-over users received promotional e-mails about products and services and then clicked through to the site being promoted.
More than 55 percent of 40-or-older users purchased a product or service promoted in an e-mail.
Some 93 percent of respondents read an article about a Web site in print and later visited the site.
About 83 percent visited a Web site after seeing an advertisement for the site in a newspaper or print magazine.
Why don't consumers 40 and older use social networking sites? Respondents say their main concerns are privacy, time and just not seeing the point.
It might be hard to find a serious observer who would argue social networking will not climb among the 40 or older demographics, though. Other innovations such as iPods, the Internet, text and instant messaging were adopted more slowly by older users than by younger users. Social networking won't be any different.
Gary Kim was cited as a global "Power Mobile Influencer" by Forbes, ranked second in the world for coverage of the mobile business, and as a "top 10" telecom analyst. He is a member of Mensa, the international organization for people with IQs in the top two percent.
Monday, June 9, 2008
14 Million iPhone Sales in 2008?
Analysts at RBC Capital think a stunning 14 million--not just 10 million--new Apple iPhone units will be sold in 2008.If so, it will be clear why higher-bandwidth mobile networks are needed. What isn't so clear yet is the precise impact all those new devices might have on access bandwidth.
RBC estimates that 70 percent of those 14 million units will be sold to first-time iPhone buyers. In all likelihood, that means 9.8 million new users who will disrupt traditional usage patterns.
But AT&T executives say they are confident they understand the dimensions of new demand, based on the 2G iPhone users they already are supporting. If not, they'll have time to adjust, says Ralph De La Vega, AT&T Wireless CEO.
Gary Kim was cited as a global "Power Mobile Influencer" by Forbes, ranked second in the world for coverage of the mobile business, and as a "top 10" telecom analyst. He is a member of Mensa, the international organization for people with IQs in the top two percent.
1Q: 1.7 Million IP or Hybrid PBX Licenses Sold
About 1.7 million IP or hybrid PBX licenses were sold in North America in the first quarter of 2008, according to researchers at iLocus. That implies sales of 1.5 million licenses in the U.S. market.
Gary Kim was cited as a global "Power Mobile Influencer" by Forbes, ranked second in the world for coverage of the mobile business, and as a "top 10" telecom analyst. He is a member of Mensa, the international organization for people with IQs in the top two percent.
Who Blogs?
A Deloitte & Touche study of blog usage by age found a direct relationship between the two. The younger the user, the more likely he or she was to read or keep a blog on a weekly basis, according to Deloitte.For example, 55 percent of Millennials (ages 13 to 24) surveyed read a blog, and the percentages decline for every age cohort in the study until reaching just 16 percent among matures (ages 61 to 75).
Similarly, 35 percent of millennials keep a blog, whereas only one percent of matures do. The age groups in between—Generation X (ages 25 to 41) and baby boomers (ages 42 to 60)—fall between those extremes.
Gary Kim was cited as a global "Power Mobile Influencer" by Forbes, ranked second in the world for coverage of the mobile business, and as a "top 10" telecom analyst. He is a member of Mensa, the international organization for people with IQs in the top two percent.
Saturday, June 7, 2008
U.S. Smart Phone Sales Double
The worldwide smart phone market grew more than 29 percent and the North American smart phone market doubled in the first quarter of 2008 compared to a year ago, according to Gartner analysts.
Apple is the third largest vendor of smart phones, selling 1.7 million units worldwide to grab a 5.3 percent share of the market, Gartner says. In the U.S. market, though, Apple already is the second-largest vendor, with 20 percent of the market.
Globally, users bought 32.2 million smart phones in the first quarter 2008, an increase of 29.3 percent compared to the first quarter of 2007. In North America, unit sales more than doubled to 7.3 million.
Gary Kim was cited as a global "Power Mobile Influencer" by Forbes, ranked second in the world for coverage of the mobile business, and as a "top 10" telecom analyst. He is a member of Mensa, the international organization for people with IQs in the top two percent.
AT&T Might Consider Usage-Based Access Pricing
AT&T might consider a usage-based approach to pricing broadband access, a solution to the problem of supporting very-heavy bandwidth users without resorting to blocking or traffic shaping, says CTO John Donovan. He says "one percent of the company's customers account for 20 percent of the network usage; the top five percent account for 40 percent of the usage."
In other remarks, Donovan says "traffic on our backbone is growing 60 percent per year."
"I don't view any of our customers, under any circumstances, as pirates -- I view them as users," Donovan said. "A heavy user is not a bad customer."
And users aren't dumb. If they have incentives to use P2P at off-peak hours, they will. BitTorrent use on the AT&T network peaks around 4 a.m., when other traffic is at an ebb, he says.
Peer to peer traffic represents about 20 percent of total network traffic, he adds.
In other remarks, Donovan says "traffic on our backbone is growing 60 percent per year."
"I don't view any of our customers, under any circumstances, as pirates -- I view them as users," Donovan said. "A heavy user is not a bad customer."
And users aren't dumb. If they have incentives to use P2P at off-peak hours, they will. BitTorrent use on the AT&T network peaks around 4 a.m., when other traffic is at an ebb, he says.
Peer to peer traffic represents about 20 percent of total network traffic, he adds.
Gary Kim was cited as a global "Power Mobile Influencer" by Forbes, ranked second in the world for coverage of the mobile business, and as a "top 10" telecom analyst. He is a member of Mensa, the international organization for people with IQs in the top two percent.
Friday, June 6, 2008
You Can Say That Again!
Instead of being tied to their wired network infrastructures, most enterprise users are becoming untethered, with apps accessible from smartphones and laptopsn say analysts at the Burton Group. This has huge implications for enterprise network infrastructures, how applications are built/deployed, and security, they say.
Gary Kim was cited as a global "Power Mobile Influencer" by Forbes, ranked second in the world for coverage of the mobile business, and as a "top 10" telecom analyst. He is a member of Mensa, the international organization for people with IQs in the top two percent.
U.S. Users Spent 68 Hours Each Online in April
According to the latest Nielsen Online figures, the average U.S. Internet user spent nearly 68 hours online during the month of April. That's a bit more than two hours a day.The average user visited 104 separate domains and viewed 2,361 pages.
Gary Kim was cited as a global "Power Mobile Influencer" by Forbes, ranked second in the world for coverage of the mobile business, and as a "top 10" telecom analyst. He is a member of Mensa, the international organization for people with IQs in the top two percent.
Thursday, June 5, 2008
Millennial Impact
One of the arguments to be made about where buying preferences are moving is that the Millennial generation, and to some extent "Generation X" gradually are assuming positions of influence and authority on the buying side of virtually every communications and information technology.To simplify the argument, Millennials and in many similar ways Gen Xers, are "different" from their baby boomer parents, the lead edge of which is starting to retire.
Baby boomers essentially are digital immigrants. They have learned to use digital technology. Gen Xers have been using it for quite some time, in some cases not since they were born, but very close to it.
Millennials are totally "digital natives." They never have known a world where the Internet, PCs and mobiles did not exist.
So note that baby boomer spending is less than that of Gen X, and dropping. Gen X is growing to replace the baby boomer economic activity. By 2017, Millennials will be spending more than baby boomers are today.
Therein lies the argument that service providers and application providers might well find they are selling very-different products and services to Gen X and Millennial users than they sell today when baby boomers are doing a great proportion of the buying of all manner of communications and software products.
That might explain why Web 2.0 concepts and ways of creating and using software now are emerging in the enterprise space, as similar concepts have emerged in the consumer space.
Gary Kim was cited as a global "Power Mobile Influencer" by Forbes, ranked second in the world for coverage of the mobile business, and as a "top 10" telecom analyst. He is a member of Mensa, the international organization for people with IQs in the top two percent.
2Q IT Spending Even with 1Q
Overall IT spending in the second quarter appears to have been at about the same level as the first quarter, a ChangeWave survey finds. About 11 percent of respondents said their company had spent "more than planned," up one percent since February.Another 27 percent say they've spent "less than planned," unchanged from the previous quarter.
"Things haven't gotten any worse," ChangeWave notes.
Looking ahead to the third quarter, 24 percent of respondents say their company's IT spending will decrease or that there'll be no spending at all. That's one point worse than the previous survey. In addition, only 15 percent say spending will increase, unchanged from the last survey.
The softness in projected spending is occurring across companies of all sizes, although once again things have stopped getting worse, ChangeWave notes.
We asked respondents about their IT spending outlook for the entire second half of 2008 (July-December), and 28 percent think their IT budget will be less than first half of 2008, "a whopping eight points worse than previously," ChaneWave says.
Only 18 percent of respondents think their company's IT budget will be greater than it was in the first half of 2008. Another 44 percent say their IT budgets will remain the same.
Gary Kim was cited as a global "Power Mobile Influencer" by Forbes, ranked second in the world for coverage of the mobile business, and as a "top 10" telecom analyst. He is a member of Mensa, the international organization for people with IQs in the top two percent.
Verizon to Add 25 HDTV Channels
Verizon FiOS TV will add more than 60 new channels to the lineup, including high-definition sports and multicultural content.
Verizon plans to expand its lineup to offer by the end of the year up to 150 HD channels, which will include all available major HD programming.
Other Verizon HD choices include hundreds of video-on-demand (VOD) titles per month, with 1,000 HD VOD titles by the end of the year.
Verizon plans to expand its lineup to offer by the end of the year up to 150 HD channels, which will include all available major HD programming.
Other Verizon HD choices include hundreds of video-on-demand (VOD) titles per month, with 1,000 HD VOD titles by the end of the year.
Verizon will roll out the new content, region by region, to areas where FiOS TV is available, beginning in early July. The new channels will be activated in FiOS systems across the country over the following few months.
Included in the new content will be more than 25 high-definition channels, bringing the total number of HD channels to between 52 and 65, depending on the customer's location.
Gary Kim was cited as a global "Power Mobile Influencer" by Forbes, ranked second in the world for coverage of the mobile business, and as a "top 10" telecom analyst. He is a member of Mensa, the international organization for people with IQs in the top two percent.
Wednesday, June 4, 2008
$55 Billion Health Vertical Spending
The hospitals, physicians, pharmaceutical companies, and insurance providers that make up the $2.3 trillion US healthcare system will be spending $55 billion on telecommunications services over the next five years, says Insight Research Corporation.
Spending by the US healthcare industry on telecommunications services will grow at a compounded rate of 8.4 percent over the forecast period, increasing from $7.5 billion in 2008 to $11.3 billion in 2013.
Gary Kim was cited as a global "Power Mobile Influencer" by Forbes, ranked second in the world for coverage of the mobile business, and as a "top 10" telecom analyst. He is a member of Mensa, the international organization for people with IQs in the top two percent.
VoIP Market Revenues $44 Billion in 2013
The global consumer VoIP market grew from approximately 16 million in 2005 to over 50 million in 2006, says In-Stat. By 2011, 38 percent of broadband households worldwide will subscribe to VoIP services.
As a result, consumer VoIP revenue will grow from $15 billion to nearly $44 billion over the next five years.
Europe is the region where VoIP use is most extensive, In-Stat says. So incumbent service providers in other regions where VoIP is less a factor might want to pay attention to the adoption triggers in Europe.
For an incumbent telecom provider, there are lots of good business reasons for delaying full-blown VoIP marketing. A full-scale switch from legacy TDM to VoIP probably harms revenue, no matter what approach or packaging route is taken.
But there comes some point where the switch has to be made. So looking at the European triggers is an exercise worth conducting.
As a result, consumer VoIP revenue will grow from $15 billion to nearly $44 billion over the next five years.
Europe is the region where VoIP use is most extensive, In-Stat says. So incumbent service providers in other regions where VoIP is less a factor might want to pay attention to the adoption triggers in Europe.
For an incumbent telecom provider, there are lots of good business reasons for delaying full-blown VoIP marketing. A full-scale switch from legacy TDM to VoIP probably harms revenue, no matter what approach or packaging route is taken.
But there comes some point where the switch has to be made. So looking at the European triggers is an exercise worth conducting.
Gary Kim was cited as a global "Power Mobile Influencer" by Forbes, ranked second in the world for coverage of the mobile business, and as a "top 10" telecom analyst. He is a member of Mensa, the international organization for people with IQs in the top two percent.
Tuesday, June 3, 2008
Cisco Ranks Top E-Tailers
The top 10 overall e-commerce sites, in rank order of flawless execution that make online shopping exceptionally easy for consumers are Amazon.com, Best Buy, Sears, Circuit City, Quelle, Otto, Macy’s, FNAC, Bol.com and Argos Home Retail Group, says Cisco Internet Business Solutions Group.But mobile shopping and social networking are redefining the online experience, Cisco says. "Two big take-aways emerged," says Lindsay Parker, Cisco Internet Business Solutions Group director. "Most significant was mobility." The second big thing was importance of social networking, Parker says.
"We accessed the sites using mobile devices and found that of the 45, 42 percent allow viewing of product information," Parker says. "Many appear to have refortmatted for mobile screens."
"But only 15 percent support transactions," she notes. And only 10 percent support SMS communications. On some sites, customers can use SMS capabilities to check inventory and be notified when an order is ready for pickup.
On transaction side, "Amazon does a terrific job in terms of ease of use," says Parker. The Amazon site "clearly is designed for mobile navigation and completing transactions."
"Amazon really shows what a good mobile site looks like," Parker says.
From social networking angle, Parker was surprised that only 17 percent of sites provided connection to communities on the site, a place where you could interact with other customers, or with Facebook.
"Amazon did that best, as well," says Parker. But 52 percent of sites did provide shopper reviews That's important because perhaps 50 percent of shoppers indicate they checked a review before buying online, she adds.
"One big change we see is that as you talk about customer experience, it is much more of a 'pull' world rather than a 'push' world," Parker says. "The consumer is more in control."
Retailers who figure this out will be well ahead, she adds.
Cisco expects mobile commerce to follow an adoption pattern similar to that of cell phones, an important fact since there are three times as many mobile-phone subscribers (3.3 billion) as Internet users (1.3 billion) worldwide.
The Cisco IBSG study assessed 45 retailers from North America and Europe in three categories (Global 500, Web 15 and Innovators) and looked at two aspects of online shopping from the consumer’s point of view. The first is “foundational” capabilities, which are nonnegotiable, “must have” characteristics. These include an intuitive graphical user interface, search capabilities and a convenient purchasing process. The second is “emerging” capabilities, which are the more sophisticated aspects, such as social networking and multichannel integration, that add even greater value to the customer’s experience.
Gary Kim was cited as a global "Power Mobile Influencer" by Forbes, ranked second in the world for coverage of the mobile business, and as a "top 10" telecom analyst. He is a member of Mensa, the international organization for people with IQs in the top two percent.
Comcast to Boost Upstream in FiOS Areas
Comcast will boost upload speeds for its customers in Verizon FiOS areas June 5 or so, reports Broadband Reports.com.
The rumor is that 6 Mbps customers will see their upstream speeds boosted to 1 Mbps, while 8 Mbps customers will see their upstream speeds boosted to 2 Mbps.
As we understand, prices will not change. Competition works, apparently.
The rumor is that 6 Mbps customers will see their upstream speeds boosted to 1 Mbps, while 8 Mbps customers will see their upstream speeds boosted to 2 Mbps.
As we understand, prices will not change. Competition works, apparently.
Gary Kim was cited as a global "Power Mobile Influencer" by Forbes, ranked second in the world for coverage of the mobile business, and as a "top 10" telecom analyst. He is a member of Mensa, the international organization for people with IQs in the top two percent.
Want 2 Hours Free Wi-Fi at Starbucks?
Buy a $5 gift card, or by enter your personal information in the company's database for a rewards program. Starbuckswill give you 2 hours of free Wi-Fi.
Gary Kim was cited as a global "Power Mobile Influencer" by Forbes, ranked second in the world for coverage of the mobile business, and as a "top 10" telecom analyst. He is a member of Mensa, the international organization for people with IQs in the top two percent.
40% GPS Mobile Device Growth Through 2012
Worldwide shipments of GPS-integrated mobile devices will grow at an annualized rate of nearly 40 percent over the next five years, reaching 834 million units in 2012, according to Parks Associates.Mobile handsets and smartphones will constitute the majority of shipments up to 2012, but personal navigation devices will remain the most widely used and preferred navigation choice in the next three years, says Harry Wang, Parks Associates senior analyst.
“GPS will come to your mobile handset as a standard feature, but mobile carriers are still a couple of years away from turning GPS into a money-making, mass-market feature,” Wang says. Currently, consumers prefer PNDs thanks to the combination of a bigger screen, more versatile functions, and growing affordability.
Gary Kim was cited as a global "Power Mobile Influencer" by Forbes, ranked second in the world for coverage of the mobile business, and as a "top 10" telecom analyst. He is a member of Mensa, the international organization for people with IQs in the top two percent.
Email Still Preferred for Communications with Businesses
No question: when it comes to interacting with a business or friends, email rules. An Ipsos survey recently found that 67 percent of consumers prefer email as a primary method of communications in their personal and business capacities, and 65 percent say they will continue to prefer email in the future.
Consumer opinion of the future importance of email registered far above future expectations for video conferencing (19 percent), instant messaging (17 percent), SMS text messages (12 percent) and Web meetings (12 percent).
Significantly, 65 percent of the demographic between the ages of 18 to 34 expect to favor email to communicate with businesses in five years. That makes sense: a retailer is not likely to be found on a "buddy" list. Nor are most major retailers likely to rush to publish such customer service "buddy" lists so consumers can contact them that way.
Consumer opinion of the future importance of email registered far above future expectations for video conferencing (19 percent), instant messaging (17 percent), SMS text messages (12 percent) and Web meetings (12 percent).
Significantly, 65 percent of the demographic between the ages of 18 to 34 expect to favor email to communicate with businesses in five years. That makes sense: a retailer is not likely to be found on a "buddy" list. Nor are most major retailers likely to rush to publish such customer service "buddy" lists so consumers can contact them that way.
Gary Kim was cited as a global "Power Mobile Influencer" by Forbes, ranked second in the world for coverage of the mobile business, and as a "top 10" telecom analyst. He is a member of Mensa, the international organization for people with IQs in the top two percent.
Craigslist Blocks VoIP
Craigslist.org does have a problem with spam. In its attempts to defeat spam, though, it also now seems to be blocking attempts by legitimate VoIP number users to authenticate the ads they want to place on Craigslist, reports Cory Andrews of VoIP Insider.
Craiglist apparently uses a telephone verification process that places an automated outbound call to a user placing a classified ad in certain categories.
The problem is that Craigslist is categorically blocking legitimate VoIP and Pre-paid cellular users from authenticating themselves.
The call delivers a unique code using text to speech, which is then used by the poster to authenticate the ad they are placing.
Craig’s uses a third party service, ReduceFraud.com, to screen out VoIP and Pre-paid cellular numbers, and will not deliver an automated verification call to VoIP numbers.
How do they check? "They check the DID number to see who owns the NPA NXX X number block, and if the DID number is owned by Level 3 Communications, they classify it as VoIP," says Andrews.
ReduceFraud.com is owned and operated by a California firm Telecentrex, who offers its own hosted VoIP service.
Craiglist apparently uses a telephone verification process that places an automated outbound call to a user placing a classified ad in certain categories.
The problem is that Craigslist is categorically blocking legitimate VoIP and Pre-paid cellular users from authenticating themselves.
The call delivers a unique code using text to speech, which is then used by the poster to authenticate the ad they are placing.
Craig’s uses a third party service, ReduceFraud.com, to screen out VoIP and Pre-paid cellular numbers, and will not deliver an automated verification call to VoIP numbers.
How do they check? "They check the DID number to see who owns the NPA NXX X number block, and if the DID number is owned by Level 3 Communications, they classify it as VoIP," says Andrews.
ReduceFraud.com is owned and operated by a California firm Telecentrex, who offers its own hosted VoIP service.
Gary Kim was cited as a global "Power Mobile Influencer" by Forbes, ranked second in the world for coverage of the mobile business, and as a "top 10" telecom analyst. He is a member of Mensa, the international organization for people with IQs in the top two percent.
Monday, June 2, 2008
Consumers Pulling Back
The percentage of consumers who feel we are in tough times or a recession has increased since April, according to a monthly survey by The NPD Group, Inc.
In May, 58 percent of consumers said we are in a recession, compared to 55 percent in April.
What’s more, consumers are not only less optimistic about the economy, they are beginning to change their behavior in response.
In May, 58 percent of consumers said we are in a recession, compared to 55 percent in April.
What’s more, consumers are not only less optimistic about the economy, they are beginning to change their behavior in response.
How are consumers reacting? The survey respondents said they are planning to spend less on things like apparel and footwear. And with vacation season approaching, 49 percent of consumers said they plan to cut back on leisure travel.
“Consumers are finally starting to react to the price of gas and other rising costs and are shifting shopping intentions,” says NPD chief industry expert Marshal Cohen.
Gary Kim was cited as a global "Power Mobile Influencer" by Forbes, ranked second in the world for coverage of the mobile business, and as a "top 10" telecom analyst. He is a member of Mensa, the international organization for people with IQs in the top two percent.
Channel Conflict Growing in Video Business
There's always some tension between the economic interests of content owners and distributors of that content. Cable operators make their money one way; programmers another. So when Time Warner Cable CEO fires off a warning, that's just part of growing tensions in the video entertainment ecosystem.
"There is a model today for financing TV programming where the cable networks rely on subscription revenue as well as advertising revenue," says Britt. "As cable companies, we are in effect retailers; we buy programming wholesale, we put it in a package, and we sell it to subscribers."
But programming moving direct to Internet distribution will upset the current arrangements, he warns.
"There is a model today for financing TV programming where the cable networks rely on subscription revenue as well as advertising revenue," says Britt. "As cable companies, we are in effect retailers; we buy programming wholesale, we put it in a package, and we sell it to subscribers."
But programming moving direct to Internet distribution will upset the current arrangements, he warns.
"Programmers shouldn't think that if they put the same content on the Internet for free, at the same time we're showing it, that we're going to pay the same wholesale price as we were paying before," Britt tells the Wall Street Journal.
Gary Kim was cited as a global "Power Mobile Influencer" by Forbes, ranked second in the world for coverage of the mobile business, and as a "top 10" telecom analyst. He is a member of Mensa, the international organization for people with IQs in the top two percent.
Global Software Piracy Scorecard
In 2007, for every two dollars spent on legitimate software purchases, one dollar’s worth of software was obtained illegally. In the highest piracy countries–those with 75 percent piracy or higher–for every one dollar spent on PC hardware, less than seven cents was spent on legitimate software, says the Business Software Alliance.
In developed markets, that ratio is eight times higher. By the end of 2007, there were more than one billion PCs installed around the world; nearly half have pirated software on them.
Gary Kim was cited as a global "Power Mobile Influencer" by Forbes, ranked second in the world for coverage of the mobile business, and as a "top 10" telecom analyst. He is a member of Mensa, the international organization for people with IQs in the top two percent.
Best Buy Expands Recyling Programs
Best Buy Co. has launched a test of its newest electronics recycling program to in 117 U.S. stores, in addition to the existing programs offered by Best Buy stores, which have focused on mobile phones, ink cartridges, batteries and other smaller mobile devices.
Starting June 1, 117 stores in the Baltimore, San Francisco, and Minnesota markets are inviting customers to bring in no more than two units per day, per household, for recycling at no charge.
Customers can bring items such as televisions and monitors up to 32”, computers, phones, cameras, and other electronics devices and peripherals in for recycling.
The following items cannot be accepted through this program:
- Televisions or monitor screens greater than 32”
- Console televisions
- Air conditioners
- Microwaves
- Appliances (customers are invited instead to use Best Buy’s appliance haul-away and pick-up programs)
Meanwhile, Best Buy continues to offer these electronics and appliance recycling options, available in every U.S. store:
- Recycling kiosks: at the front of every store, ink cartridges, rechargeable batteries, cell phones, CDs, DVDs, and PDA/smart phones can be dropped off for free recycling
- Appliance and television haul-away: Best Buy will remove an old or obsolete appliance or television free of charge from a consumers' home when a new product is purchased and delivered by Best Buy Home Delivery or Geek Squad Home Theater Installation Service.
- Appliance and television pick-up: For $100, Best Buy will arrange a home visit to remove up to two (2) appliance units and/or televisions for recycling, with $20 for each additional unit.
- Tech Trade-In: Visit www.bestbuytradein.com to trade in select gently used electronics for a Best Buy gift card.
Gary Kim was cited as a global "Power Mobile Influencer" by Forbes, ranked second in the world for coverage of the mobile business, and as a "top 10" telecom analyst. He is a member of Mensa, the international organization for people with IQs in the top two percent.
BT to Cut Carbon Footprint 80% by 2020
British Telecom plans to reduce its carbon emissions 80 percent by 2020. BT earlier had said it would invest close to half a billion dollars in wind farms that could supply close to 25 percent of the company’s power needs by 2016.
Gary Kim was cited as a global "Power Mobile Influencer" by Forbes, ranked second in the world for coverage of the mobile business, and as a "top 10" telecom analyst. He is a member of Mensa, the international organization for people with IQs in the top two percent.
Wireline, Wireless, Broadand All Up in France
There's some interesting data emerging about wireless substitution. To wit, wireline subscriptions in some markets do not appear to be declining as wireless grows.To be sure, share is shifting to new competitors. But that's a different question than abandonment of wireline accounts in favor of wireless-only service.
France added around 675,000 new broadband users in the first three months of this year to boost the country’s high speed internet user base from 15.551 million to 16.225 million, reports the country’s regulator Arcep.
On an annualised basis, the French residential and business broadband market climbed 18.6 percent from 13.676 million at the end of March 2007, the report said. ADSL continues to be the overwhelmingly popular access technology, accounting for 15.475 million access lines, with the remainder made up by cable, FTTx or satellite services.
Arcep also reported a strong rise in wholesale access lines in the period under review, up 338,000 lines to 7.825 million. France had also unbundled 5.521 million local loops by the start of April 2008, with some 4.012 million subscribers taking fully unbundled services.
In other findings, mobile subscriptions also continue to grow, while fixed lines also were up. So much for wireless substitution.
Gary Kim was cited as a global "Power Mobile Influencer" by Forbes, ranked second in the world for coverage of the mobile business, and as a "top 10" telecom analyst. He is a member of Mensa, the international organization for people with IQs in the top two percent.
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