Bubble Bursting Time Again?

Fearing a reprise of the 2000 catastrophe which wrecked hundreds of tech companies, big firms in the sector are hoarding cash. The broader problem is that these firms don't need it. In the last major contraction cycle, it was all the little startups who died when the capital markets slammed shut.

Something like that, but on a lesser scale, is about to happen again. That means the big cash-flush firms will once again have a chance to snap up assets while some of the smaller startups simply vaporize.

Of course, it takes less capital to innovate these days, compared to 2000. But we are in for a winnowing period, nevertheless. I don't think anybody thinks we collectively are in a "bubble" of manic proportions. Wiser heads now prevail just about everywhere.

The similarity is simply that there's lots of innovation, but with a period of capital stringency upon us, many of the innovators won't be able to sustain their development efforts. The lack of access to capital won't kill innovation. Perhaps innovation won't even slow in ways that are industry damaging, overall.

Amazon, eBay and Google were among the notable successes of the late-1990s wave of innovations. One would have a hard time coming up with a similar list of financially-successful firms among the most-recent generation of innovators.

History doesn't necessarily repeat. So we are not seeing an "Internet bubble" all over again. But cycles of capital availability are important. Let the winnowing begin.

Transfer Money Using Your Mobile

Obopay says customers can now use their existing bank accounts to send and receive money using their mobile phones. With Obopay’s mobile money transfer, non-customers can pick up payments without signing up for Obopay.

These innovations make it easier than ever for any bank customer to conveniently send and receive payments from their mobile phones.

By linking an existing checking or saving account — at any American bank — with Obopay, customers can send money directly from and receive money into that account using any mobile phone.

Anyone can pick up money received by having it deposited directly into their existing bank account or by requesting a check, without having to sign up with Obopay.

“Obopay’s mission has always been to provide the best tools possible to conveniently get, send and spend money from any mobile phone,” said Obopay Chief Executive Officer, Carol Realini. “Now we provide it directly from any bank account."

Many new applications just take a while to get traction. Mobile payments seem to be one of them, at least in the U.S. market. Japan has been the model, but over the years there have been significant cultural differences between regions of the world that could affect market adoption.

A decade ago it remained true that Europeans preferred debit cards while Americans preferred credit cards. But as with the text messaging habit, U.S. consumer behavior is starting to resemble that of other regions. Mobile payments still have some ways to go before becoming a natural habit for U.S. users.

80:20 Rule Holds in Rural Markets

Wireless "unlimited" plans exist for one reason: to retain the loyalty of the heaviest users--synonymous in many ways with "best customers." But that same sort of thinking increasingly should be seen in the broadband services and wireline customer business as well.

John Rose, president of the rural telephone trade group OPASTCO, says not only that fiber to the home is coming for rural telcos, but that symmetrical bandwidth is coming as well. But that doesn't mean every customer will buy every service. That's a big change for rural telcos, who are used to nearly universal take rates.

Some providers already are finding that even when triple play services are available, a third of customers only buy voice, a third take video and voice while a third take all three services, he notes.

So even on the wireline side of the house, high-end customers are emerging. So it will be really important for rural telcos to take care of those best customers, Rose says.

IPTV: Barking up the Wrong Tree?

Analysts at Accenture say service providers might be taking the wrong route in emphasizing IPTV and video on demand when the future might well favor over-the-top video viewing. Not many service providers agree, based on where money is being spent today.

It is hard to argue with survey findings Accenture points to: an overwhelming percentage of global consumers want to download, stream or otherwise consume video content in non-linear fashion.

That isn't to say all consumption will be non-linear. But to the extent consumers increasingly want to watch what they want, when they want it, Accenture analysts think over-the-top could well become the preferred choice.

3G iPhone to Download at 7.2 Mbps?

Is it possible the new Apple iPhone might run as fast as 7.2 Mbps in the downlink? Some chip-level sleuths think so. The Infineon chipset some think will power the communications link for the 3G version can support 7.2 Mbps in the downstream.

Live recording and two-way video calls also ought to be possible, providing Apple adds a front camera and perhaps video chat capabilities.

For a mobile smartphone, that would be ludicrous speed.

Grande Communications: Multitasking on One Screen

Grande Communications, a San Marcos, Texas-based broadband provider, is launching a multiplexing service that allows viewers to watch as many as five discrete live video feeds on a single screen.

GrandeVision will launch in Austin, at no additional charge for its digital cable customers. Users will be able to use their remote controls to navigate between channels and interact with Web video and banner ads.

Grande provides Internet, local and long-distance telephone and digital cable in parts of Austin, Corpus Christi, suburban northwest Dallas, Midland, Odessa, San Antonio, San Marcos and Waco.

Sports fans will go crazy!

Telcos, Satellite Providers Picking Up Customers

In any competitive market with a leading incumbent and many challengers, one normally would assume that the direction of market share shifts would be away from the incumbent and towards challengers, assuming those challengers are reasonably competent at crafting offers and delivering on their promises.

And that is just about what ChangeWave survey suggests is happening in the mass market video arena. A February survey suggests that video consumers who plan to switch providers are disproportionately switching to new providers.

Asked the names of their planned new providers, about 30 percent said they would switch to DirecTV while 28 percent said they would switch to Verizon FiOS. About 14 percent said they would switch to at&t while 10 percent said they would switch to Dish Network.

That's 38 percent choosing satellite providers and 44 percent choosing telephone company video services.