VoIP License Shipments Dip in First Quarter

In the first quarter 2008, vendors shipped a total of about 7.9 million VoIP subscriber feature server licenses for deployment in service provider networks, say analysts at iLocus.

The number of lines is down by 19 percent quarter over quarter, though the analysts note that the third and fourth quarters of 2007 were marked by unusually high growth, so the sequential comparisons would be more difficult than is typical.

In the first quarter, Nokia Siemens Networks led the VoIP subscriber lines equipment market on a worldwide basis with a market share of 19.8 percent. That lead is followed by Italtel at number two and Cisco at number three worldwide.

Business Centrex lines account for over 1.03 million of the licenses. The remaining 6.87 million were mainly deployed for residential voice over broadband apps or switch replacement.

Analysts at iLocus caution that they do not track IP upgrades to TDM ports. They do track VoIP hosted telephony implementations (such as hosted PBX and VoBB), new greenfield VoIP deployments, complete replacement of legacy switches with VoIP, and extension of existing legacy networks with VoIP equipment in new geographies.

Netflix Enters Streaming Business

Netflix now is in the streaming business. A new "content to the TV" box made by Roku will allow subscribers to stream an unlimited number of movies and television shows directly to televisions.

The device costs $99. The video content is free to anyone with a Netflix subscription of $8.99 a month or more. Most of the video content will consist of older material, rather than new releases, though.

Carrier Ethernet Scorecard

More than 80 service providers are delivering retail carrier Ethernet services to business customers in the United States, say analysts at Vertical Systems Group.

Services range from Dedicated Internet Access (DIA) to Ethernet Private Lines to VPLS (Virtual Private LAN Service).   

Incumbents, including market leaders AT&T and Verizon, deliver nearly half (46%) of all business customer Ethernet ports installed in the U.S. 

Another one third of the total (34%) is supplied by competitive providers, with Time Warner Telecom and Cogent topping this segment.

Cable MSOs have the smallest base overall (20%), however this is the fastest growing segment of the U.S. Business Ethernet services market based on ports.

Cox and Time Warner Cable currently lead in the Cable MSO segment.

Femtocells, Wi-Fi, or All of the Above?

Though Wi-Fi remains the clear home-based wireless networking technology, mobile providers also are experimenting with UMA and femtocell techniques. But Aruba Networks suggests the ultimate solution might bit of "all of the above," as often happens in the communications business.

Those discussions, likely to become more pronounced as service providers grapple with their fixed-mobile convergence strategies, will require some choices.

Wi-Fi has high production volumes, low prices and good consumer acceptance. Femtocell technologies currently must climb an experience curve to provide reasonable consumer device prices, and sort through some business model issues, Aruba argues.

Wi-Fi already has a significant network effect, so mobile operators must choose whether to leverage Wi-Fi or use femtocells.

Mobile operators have the advantages of macro-cell coverage and phone numbers, so Aruba suggests a hybrid approach using both Wi-Fi and femtocell technologies.

A simple device might combine a Wi-Fi access point and femtocell, or possibly a digital subscriber line connection as well.

Microsoft Sees Big Future for Hosted Enterprise Email

Microsoft Corp. sees tens of millions of corporate e-mail accounts moving to its data centers over the next five years, Reuters news service reports. Consider that a vote in favor of "cloud computing" and hosted services.

Chris Capossela, Microsoft SVP, says he expects Microsoft to allow enterprises to choose between the more-traditional licensing model and a subscription-based service.

Exchange Online, the service offering for its Exchange mail and messaging server software, will be the primary application adopted by corporate customers, Capossela believes.

"In five years, 50 percent of our Exchange mailboxes will be Exchange Online," he predicts. Small-business specialist Cbeyond probably would agree. In its Atlanta market, its oldest market, Cbeyond is seeing 40 percent penetration of the hosted Exchange service it offers to small business customers.

According to research firm Radicati, Exchange will run about 210 million corporate e-mail accounts in 2008, growing to 319 million mailboxes in 2012.

16.3 Million Consumer VoIP Lines in Service

By the first quarter of 2008, 16.3 million consumer VoIP lines were in service, representing 13.8 percent of all U.S. households, and 27 percent of broadband households, say researchers at TeleGeography.

Those customers--80 percent or so--largely but not exclusively have been gained by cable companies, at the expense of the incumbent local telephone companies.

Since the start of 2005, the RBOCs have lost 17.3 million residential telephone lines, while VoIP service providers have gained 14.4 million new customers.

User-Surly Web Sites

Most Web sites are fairly user friendly these days. But every once in a while you encounter a site designed by people who seem to have no idea why people come to a site, and how they use them.

37 Signals notes a site where six different kinds of shoes were found in a “performance” category. When 40 uninvolved people were asked what “performance” meant to them, only 10 had even a vague idea.

Use "paths" when designing, 37 Signals says. "A path is a line that goes from a starting point A to an accomplishment B." That's what users want. That’s a path. "Where are your golf shoes?" is a path.

"Does my cell phone support international calling?" That’s a path as well.

"Collect all the paths you can think of in a pile, pull out the 8 paths that 80 percent of your visitors come looking for, and that’s your home page.