Thursday, July 8, 2010

Mobile Voice Will Keep Growing, Despite Pressures

Though growth will slow at some point, it does not immediately appear that mobile voice revenue on a global basis, at least, is in any danger of serious erosion, according to the Yankee Group. Average revenue per user is dropping, but the number of users is growing.

By some estimates, the world has added one billion new wireless customers in just 18 months, for example.

Global average revenue per user will fall from U.S.$14.28 in 2009 to U.S.$11.38 in 2014, Yankee Group predicts.

But paid minutes of use will offset most of those ARPU declines.

How Long Does it Take to Add 1 Billion Mobile Subs?

It has taken just 18 months for one billion new subscribers to get mobile services. There now are five billion global mobile subscribers, according Wireless Intelligence.

The firm predicts that the six billion mark will be achieved in the first half of 2012. Mobile penetration on a global basis now is 74 percent, compared to 60 percent at when there were only four billion subscribers. The highest penetrated region is Western Europe on 130 percent, while the lowest is Africa on 52 percent. Eastern Europe (123 percent) is the only other global region to have passed 100 percent mobile penetration.

65% of Mobile Users "Text;" 30% Download Apps

About 65 percent of U.S. mobile subscribers used text messaging on their mobile device in May 2010, up 1.4 percentage points compared to the prior three month period, while browsers were used by 32 percent of U.S. mobile subscribers (up 2.3 percentage points).

About 30 percent of the mobile audience downloaded apps, an increase of 2.1 percentage points from the previous period. Accessing of social networking sites or blogs also saw significant growth, increasing 2.6 percentage points to 21 percent of mobile subscribers.

49 Million U.S. Smartphones in Service

49.1 million people in the U.S. owned smartphones during the three months ending in May 2010, up 8.1 percent from the corresponding February period.

Research in Motion was the leading mobile smartphone platform in the U.S. with 41.7 percent share of U.S. smartphone subscribers, followed by Apple with 24.4 percent share and Microsoft with 13.2 percent.

Google saw significant growth during the period, up four percentage points to 13 percent of smartphone subscribers, while Palm rounded out the top five with 4.8 percent.

Cable Chills in Advance of Potential Net Neutrality Ruling

Regulation has a huge impact on communications and multi-channel video entertainment companies (telcos and cable), and the reason is quite simple: regulation creates, conditions or damages the business opportunity. Lots of observers would predict that imposition of strong network neutrality rules, by limiting growth options, would have clear negative impact on equity values, ability to raise capital and ultimately revenue, cash flow and profit.

It appears some of the damage is caused simply by raising the specter of such changes. "'The FCC has voted itself a loaded gun, pointed it at the carriers (cable and telco alike) and then promised not to shoot," said Craig Moffett, Bernstein Research analyst.

'What is clear ... is that we are now facing a protracted period -- likely years long -- of enormous uncertainty,' Moffett said.

"The bull case for cable stocks is a simple one," Moffett wrote. "Cable wins the broadband wars. But the prospect for broadband price regulation cuts to the heart of that thesis."

100 Million Mobile YouTube Playbacks Every Day

YouTube Mobile now receives more than 100 million video playbacks a day. This is roughly the number of daily playbacks that YouTube.com was streaming when YouTube was acquired by Google in 2006.

YouTube Adds HTML5 Site




YouTube is launching a new mobile site optimized for HTML5, m.youtube.com, as well as a new mobile app pointed at the site.

The web app apparently has superior video quality when compared to native applications on the iPhone and will soon feature more content as well. Both iPhone and Android devices will get the new app.

Directv-Dish Merger Fails

Directv’’s termination of its deal to merge with EchoStar, apparently because EchoStar bondholders did not approve, means EchoStar continue...