Cloud-Based iPhone?

Apple's possible plans to produce a cheaper, smaller iPhone might also be a test of a "cloud-based" smartphone. The new device might also come with a major revamp of Apple's "MobileMe" online storage service. One way to reduce the price of a new iPhone is to dispense with memory. MobileMe lets users store data in a central location and synchronize their calendars and contacts among computers and other devices.

That same functionality also presumably could be used to support a cloud-based storage replacement for local memory.

If a potential new free MobileMe service is available to store photos, music and videos, the issue will be experience. Will cloud storage be a suitable replacement for on-board storage?

Apple Works on Line of Less-Expensive iPhones - WSJ.com (subscription required)

PayPal is Tail Wagging eBay Dog

PayPal is eBay's future, one might well argue. PayPal serves nine million merchants and over 90 million active accounts, expected to grow to 130 million by 2013.

Despite widely-speculated competitive threats from upcoming payment systems from Facebook as well as from Apple, management believes that PayPal's revenues could double by 2013. That growth will be powered by international growth, increasing eBay penetration to 75 percent from 69 percent today; new initiatives with credit growing revenues in the 40 percent range; and merchant coverage market share increasing to upwards of 24 percent from 18 percent today.

eBay: PayPal Looks Great, Rest of Company Doesn't - Seeking Alpha

Mobile Payments Used by 10% of Japanese Mobile Users

In December 2010, 9.8 million mobile users in Japan used their mobiles for payments, representing about 10 percent of all mobile subscribers in Japan. When looking at the most likely places people used their mobile wallet, retail and convenience stores topped the list with 7.6 million mobile subscribers using
their mobile wallet at these locations in December, followed by vending machines (3.2 million), public transportation (2.7 million), grocery stores (2.6 million) and restaurants (1.5 million).

Since Japan almost universally is seen as the nation most advanced in terms of mobile payments, the usage pattern is illustrative. Only about 10 percent of all mobile users, in that one month, used mobile payment functions of their mobiles.

By way of comparison, 58 percent of Japanese mobile users got news and information on their mobiles. Some 53 percent used at least one mobile app, while 57 percent used email functions on their mobile phones. About 77 percent viewed media on their phones and 63 percent took at least one photo.

That might suggest that deliberate steps, with an assumption of modest adoption, are the best way forward for mobile payment partisans. Even in the relatively well-developed Japanese market, only 10 percent of users avail themselves of the mobile payment functions of their phones, in a given month.

Read more here

Google’s Android: A Billion-Dollar Ad Business In 2012?

Google could generate over $1 billion in Android-related advertising revenue in 2012, according to Piper Jaffray analyst Gene Munster.

Munster argues that Android generated $5.90 per use in mobile advertising in 2010; he sees the total increasing to $9.85 in 2012. CEO Eric Schmidt has argued that Android could be a $10 billion business if there were one billion users each generating $10 a year.

By 2012, Munster thinks there could be 133 million Android users generating $9.85 a year, which would mean $1.3 billion in Android-related revenue.

Google’s Android: A Billion-Dollar Ad Business In 2012? - Eric Savitz - The Tech Trade - Forbes

Gartner Identifies 10 Consumer Mobile Applications to Watch in 2012

Mobile apps themselves will not only generate revenue ($15.9 billion in expected end-user spending in 2012) but will also drive hardware sales, advertising spending and technology innovation in the mobile space, says Gartner.

Gartner also expects brand companies to increasingly shift their marketing budget to the mobile channel, and experiment with cutting-edge apps to capture marketing and sales opportunities.

Gartner Identifies 10 Consumer Mobile Applications to Watch in 2012

Mobile Youth Statistics

Mobile Youth Around the World - 2011 Update

View more presentations from Graham Brown.

Echostar to buy Hughes Communications

EchoStar Corp. plans to buy broadband satellite network provider Hughes Communications Inc. in a deal worth around $2 billion including the assumption of debt. There are any number of ways to spin the value of the deal. One is a "TV Everywhere" capability for Dish Network customers. EchoStar already owns Sling, so the additional capacity EchoStar is gaining might be coupled with Sling features to create a sort of instant "TV Everywhere" service.

The other angle is revenue diversification and growth. Ask a cable executive where the strongest growth now is coming from, and you will be told it is business services (voice and data) sold to business customers. Hughes will bring a multinational enterprise services business, as well as a smaller play for small and mid-sized business customers. Hughes recently has introduced a business-grade voice service for enterprise customers, for example, allowing it to sell a voice and data package.

EchoStar agreed to acquire Hughes for a price of $60.70 per share, representing a two percent discount to Friday’s closing price, but a premium of 31 percent over the January 19, 2011, price of $46.43 when news first broke that Hughes was up for sale.

The transaction values Hughes at about 6.8x times 2011 adjusted EBITDA forecast of $292 million,

which represents a fair multiple for the company, based on the company's historic multiple range of 3 times to four times adjusted EBITDA, but well below the eight times to 10 times multiple some had assumed Hughes might fetch.

Echostar to buy Hughes Communications for $2 billion | Washington Business Journal