A "Hellishly Difficult" Challenge

Some argue that most countries can supply their current energy requirements using only

renewable sources. Others disagree. 

But that is probably not the right question. The bigger questions are whether future energy consumption requirements can be met, using renewable sources, and whether the historic correlation between energy consumption and economic development can be broken. 

What is not so clear--and will require both lots of human ingenuity and some technology development--is whether most nations can improve living standardsf or their people while at the same time reducing carbon and other footprints.

It is likely to be hellishly difficult. Some will argue we do not need “growth.” Others will argue that is an immoral position, where it comes to most people of the developing world. 

source: Anthropocene

As Dennis Anderson argues in the UN Development Program’s Energy and Economic Prosperity, modern, abundant energy can improve living standards of billions of people, especially in the developing world, who lack access to services or whose consumption levels are far below those in industrialized countries.

But that means energy production and consumption levels far above what we now experience. 

"No country has been able to raise per capita incomes from low levels without increasing its commercial energy use," said Anderson.  

source: United Nations

The issue is whether that correlation can change, allowing development at lower levels of energy consumption. That is where the ingenuity and technology development will be required.

Do International Rankings of Internet or Mobile Access Speed Mean Very Much?

The United States never ranks at the top of countries for mobile internet access speeds. It never ranks at the top for fixed network internet access either. The United States never ranked at the very top for voice service adoption, either. Some would say such rankings do not matter.

The whole point of having communications capabilities generally is to support social, economic and other goods that we believe come with good communications. Deficiencies such as “lack of coverage” or service quality (audio quality, internet access speed) are therefore problematic since those conditions might hinder desired social and economic outcomes.

The rankings, per se, do not matter much. What matters is the ability to wring value from such capabilities. And while there is a generalized correlation between mobile internet access speed and measures of economic strength, the correlations are not necessarily causal. 

source: MGM Research

Whatever combination of factors “causes” economic well-being, it is impossible to say what percentage of economic health is produced by any single input element. Few would likely question the assertion that the U.S. economy is large and robust, despite never ranking at the top of measures of communications supply. 

Nor, some might well argue, can ranking at the top of measures of internet access speed propel most economies much further than they can, based on all the other background factors (population size, for example).

Fixed Networks are the Mainstay, but Mobile-Only Households are Growing

A rational observer would have to agree that fixed network internet access will remain the mainstay for most consumers. Still, in 2017, about 19 percent of U.S. homes were mobile-only for internet access, so there are a significant number of use cases where mobile data is deemed a reasonable choice. In 2019, 20 percent of U.S. homes are mobile only. 

source: Pew Research Center

High Altitude Pseudo Satellite (Drone) for 5G

Lanai to See Test of Solar-Powered Drone for 5G Service

A solar-powered unmanned aerial vehicle developed by SoftBank and built by U.S. drone manufacturer AeroVironment will test 5G delivery over the island of Lanai, Hawaii. The Hawk 30 High-Altitude Pseudo-Satellite drone is in the same family of aircraft developed by NASA. 

The University of Hawaii Research Organization has a support agreement with program sponsor HAPSMobile Inc. to perform the test project on Lanai. SoftBank Corp., Loon LLC and AeroVironment also are involved in the project.

source: NASA

Service Providers Believe Enterprise Will Generate Most New 5G Revenue

With the caveat that service provider executives can be collectively wrong at times, there is fairly broad concurrence that new revenue sources in the 5G era will come from enterprise use cases, according to GSMA. 

source: Cisco

How Do You Build a Communications Network at Population Density of 6 People Per Square Mile?

As rural areas have the lowest population density, and since communications network costs are density related, American Indian reservations are tough places to finance communication networks. By some estimates, the most-difficult places to connect are homes in the last two percent of locations, representing the most-isolated areas. 

The average population density for the U.S. is approximately 345 persons per square mile. The Navajo Nation has a population density of 6.33 persons per square mile. That means the business model is not only astoundingly difficult, it likely can be characterized as non-existent. In other words, service can only be provided if subsidies are provided, since there actually is no positive business case. 

Assume 55 locations per square mile, and two fixed network suppliers in each area. That means a theoretical maximum of 27 customers per square mile, if buying is at 100 percent. Assume for the moment that buying rates really are at 100 percent. Two equally skilled competitors might expect to split the market, so each provider, theoretically, gets 27 accounts per square mile.

At average revenue of perhaps $75 a month, that means total revenue of about $2025 a month, per square mile, or $24,300 per year, for all the customers in a square mile.

The network reaching all homes in that square mile might cost an average of $23,500 per home, or about $1.3 million.

At 50 percent adoption, that works out to roughly $47,000 per account in a square mile, against revenue of $900 per account, per year. Over 10 years, revenue per account amounts to $9,000.

The business case does not exist, without subsidies. The business case is, of course, far worse at densities of 6.33 persons per square mile. As one engineering analysis noted, “areas with a density density of less than 10 households per square mile (survey areas C, D, and F) are unlikely to see investment from the private sector.”

In rural areas everywhere, there are two fundamental reasons mobile networks have a better business case than fixed networks: customers want service and network costs are lower than for fixed networks.