Monday, May 3, 2010

Qwest: An Example of What to Do When Only "Bad" Choices Are Available

Sometimes a company might find it has only bad choices available to it. For Qwest, that might arguably be said to be case. Faced with huge debt burdens, Qwest sold off its high-growth wireless business and then spun off its cable-TV division.

The moves allowed U S West to trim debt, avoid expensive capital investments and maintain the healthy dividends long associated with a traditional telephone operator. But those moves also made a growth strategy nearly impossible, since other arguably comparable larger telcos such as AT&T and Verizon used wireless to underpin most of their growth over the last decade, while video services now are starting to be a material factor for the fixed services business.

From a short term financial perspective, divesting those assets was helpful, but strategically ensured that Qwest would not have the industry-standard growth drivers of wireless and video. Of the two, the lack of a wireless offering was most significant.

To be sure, Qwest had other problems. Its service territory was the least dense of any of the former Regional Bell Operating Companies, which would have been an issue even if Qwest had retained its wireless and video assets.

Nor will Qwest be the last company to face the problem of having only tough choices to make. That doesn't mean a firm cannot harvest the returns from a declining business for a time. That is precisely what EarthLink is doing, for example. But there is no long-term future.

Qwest, and many other firms in telecommunications, likely face issues not quite as severe as EarthLink does, but with the same limited set of strategic options. Communications remains a scale business, so the largest firms have had an advantage in both wireless and video. The largest firms also will have similar scale advantages for the next wave of potential innovations as well.

Though access providers of all sizes face some fundamental issues, such as their place and power within the Web and Internet ecosystems, wired services providers face such issues most acutely.

Wireless Now Driving Broadband Business

It sometimes is hard to keep up with all the changes occurring in the communications business.

"In 2004, Wi-Fi was embryonic, the Motorola Razr was the hot phone, the BlackBerry was
a CEO’s email device, and Apple's most recognizable product was an orange-sicle laptop," says Bret Swanson, president of  Entropy Economics LLC.

The point is that Internet innovation hardly has been a problem, and Swanson is not convinced creating new rules about "packet neutrality" actually would have a neutral impact on potential for further innovation on the facilities side of the Internet business.

But one of the sometimes unnoticed changes is the huge role wireless now plays in the broadband access business. In fact, by some measures wireless now accounts for the majority of bandwidth consumed by U.S. consumers, for example. Not surprisingly, that suggests wireless bandwidth is where key growth will occur over the coming decade as well.

"Wireless carriers invested $100 billion in just the past three years, and the United States vaulted past Europe in fast 3G mobile networks," he says. "Americans enjoy mobile voice prices 60 percent cheaper than foreign peers."

"And the once closed mobile ecosystem is more open, modular and dynamic than ever," he adds. "We estimate that between 2000 and 2008, total U.S. consumer bandwidth grew from just 7.9 terabits per second to 717 terabits per second."

"On a per capita basis, consumer bandwidth grew to almost 3 megabits per second in 2009 from just 28 kilobits per second in 2000," says Swanson.

Between 2000 and 2008, total residential bandwidth grew 54 times; total wireless bandwidth grew 542 times; total consumer bandwidth grew 91 times; residential bandwidth per capita grew 50 times; wireless bandwidth per capita grew 499 times and total consumer bandwidth per capita grew 84 times, for a compound annual growth rate of 74 percent.

Swanson estimates U.S. Internet traffic will continue to rise 50 percent annually through 2015. Cisco estimates wireless data traffic will rise 131 percent per year through 2013. That means hundreds of billions of dollars of new investment will be required.

So the question must be asked: "if network service providers can't design their own networks, offer creative services, or make fair business transactions with vendors, will they invest these massive sums to meet (and drive) demand?" Swanson rhetorically asks.

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Consumer spending surpasses pre-recession peak Economic Report - MarketWatch

Boosted by spending on autos and other durable goods, real U.S. consumer spending increased 0.5 percent in March 2010, at last surpassing the pre-recession peak set in November 2007, the Commerce Department estimates.

After-tax, inflation-adjusted incomes increased 0.2 percent in the month, with transfer payments such as unemployment benefits accounting for much of the gain. The tepid income gains should hamper the economic recovery, economists say.

The latest data confirms the "good news, bad news" nature of the economic recovery: the economy is recovering, but slowly, and with little robustness on the jobs front.

More Twitter Searches than on Bing or Yahoo

As a search engine, Twitter already is bigger than Yahoo or Bing, by some measures. Twitter handles 19 billion searches a month, the company says.

That means Twitter handles five times the queries that Bing handles and about 20 percent of those Google conducts. Twitter cofounder Ev Williams says Twitter does about 600 million queries per day.

Working off comScore figures from December 2009 for worldwide search queries, we have:

Google: 88 billion per month
Twitter: 19 billion per month
Yahoo: 9.4 billion per month
Bing: 4.1 billion per month

All Video Over the Top in 10 Years?

"The reality is that within the decade, the Internet will become the vehicle for distribution of all digital content, including the video and TV services currently still delivered within the walled garden of proprietary distribution networks, mostly satellite and cable," says Philip Hunter over at BroadbandBreakfast.com. 

The physical network may still be cable or satellite, but it will be an IP-based infrastructure, with the content arriving “over the top” rather than within a walled garden, he argues.  Access to the service will continue to be controlled. However, content providers now will be in direct contact with the end customer, in effect cutting out the broadcast distributor.

"Current TV operators will either morph into Internet service providers, which many are already anyway, or into content providers in their own right," he argues.



Apple Sold 1 Million Total iPads, Estimated 300K 3G Models Just This Weekend

 "Apple says it sold its one millionth iPad™ on Friday, just 28 days after its introduction on April 3. iPad users have already downloaded over 12 million apps from the App Store and over 1.5 million ebooks from the new iBookstore.

“One million iPads in 28 days—that’s less than half of the 74 days it took to achieve this milestone with iPhone,” said Steve Jobs, Apple’s CEO. “Demand continues to exceed supply and we’re working hard to get this magical product into the hands of even more customers.”"

Apple Sold 1 Million Total iPads, Estimated 300K 3G Models Just This Weekend

Saturday, May 1, 2010

Differential Video Experience on 3G iPad

Testers at iLounge say some video delivery applications act differently on an Apple iPad when using the 3G network than they do when the same device is using Wi-Fi access. Specifically, the iPad’s built-in YouTube application strips both standard and HD videos to a dramatically lower resolution over the cellular data connection, something that iTunes Store video previews notably do not do, instead staying at a higher quality and consuming a greater amount of data, iLounge says.

Other third-party applications, such as the ABC Player, refuse to work at all over the cellular connection, producing a notification pop-up that states, “Please connect to a Wi-Fi network to use this application. Cellular networks are not supported at this time.”

But Netflix appears to work fine.

The immediate temptation will be to blame AT&T for the variable performance, but since the applications are executing variably, it seems more likely there are video coding or even playback rights issues at play.

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Whatever the Eventual Impact, Telecom Execs Say They are Investing in AI

With the caveat that early reported interests, tests, trials and investments in new technology such as artificial intelligence--especially t...