Mutliple Wars Raging

Scoff if you like about the ultimate business models that might develop around user generated video content, but the trend will intensify competitor triangulation in the coming market share wars that are ranging at multiple levels. The access battle has telcos and cablecos, plus specialized wireless and other players competing for "lines." The "services" battle is being waged between portals and between portals and the access providers.

In some respects the "access" providers will bundle and tweak their walled garden and possibly some Internet applications so they work better, experience-wise. The portal and app providers will seek to create interesting community interaction or portal content experiences so users can be enticed to use other features. The key here is that rich communications and entertainment will be primary forms of "bait" to entice users to show up and stick around. So far, the main battle has been between the major "access" providers. At some point, though, compeitition at the other layers (intra-portal; portal versus access; service versus app) will emerge.

Smaller developments, such as the user generated video trend, as shown here by analysts at The Yankee Group, are laying the foundations for the next phase of competition.