Thursday, May 22, 2025

Content Attention Spans Continue to Contract!

It is quite hard to argue against the notion that content attention spans in the digital era have contracted, leading to more consumption of content on a “snackable” basis. 


The evolution of digital content consumption can be divided into distinct eras, each characterized by dominant formats and corresponding attention spans:


In the Early Internet Era (1995-2005), content was primarily accessed using desktop computers, with long-form articles, blogs, and early videos dominating. Typical lengths ranged from 800 to 2000 words for articles and five to 10 minutes for videos. 


In the Social Media Era (2005-2015) typical formats included social media posts (100-500 words), tweets (initially 140 characters), and early videos averaging 1-3 minutes. 


By 2015, studies, such as a widely cited Microsoft report, indicated that the average attention span had dropped to around eight seconds, a 25 percent decrease from 2000.


In the next era of “Short-Form Content” (2015-2025) mobile devices and mobile apps led to ultra-short content formats, such as five second to 30 second videos and stories (up to 15 seconds). 


In 2025, research suggests attention spans remain around eight to 8.25 seconds, in some cases up to 12 seconds.


Era

Dominant Content Format

Typical Length

Estimated Attention Span

Key Platforms/Technologies

Behavior

Early Internet (1990s-2000s)

Webpages, Blogs, Long-form Articles

800-2000+ words

5-10 minutes

Early websites (e.g., GeoCities), Email Newsletters

Users engaged with detailed, text-heavy content; slower internet encouraged in-depth reading. Microsoft, 2015 

Social Media Rise (2005-2015)

Social Media Posts, Short Blogs, Early Videos

100-500 words, 1-3 min videos

2-5 minutes

MySpace, early Facebook, YouTube

Shift to visual and social content; users began skimming posts and watching short videos. Microsoft, 2015 

Mobile Era (2015-2020)

Microblogs, Short Videos, Infographics

280 characters, 15-60 sec videos

8-15 seconds

Twitter, Instagram, Vine, Snapchat

Mobile-first consumption led to "scroll culture"; quick, visually appealing content dominated. ProfileTree, 2025 


Short-Form Content Boom (2020-2025)

Reels, Stories, Micro-videos, Memes

5-30 sec videos, single images

3-8 seconds

TikTok, Instagram Reels, X Posts

Algorithm-driven platforms prioritize instant engagement; attention spans shrink to seconds.


Some also would point to changing user platforms, content formats and interfaces. We used to consume “pages.” Then we began consuming posts, then clips and now, using artificial intelligence, we avoid search and just want “answers.”


source: Dan Goikhman

How Much are Chatbots Encroaching on Search

 According to a study by OneLittleWeb, though AI chatbots “have seen a remarkable surge in traffic, with a year over year growth of 80.92 percent from April 2024 to March 2025, while search engines experienced a YoY decline of 0.51 percent over the same period, chatbot traffic accounted for only 2.96 percent of the total visits of search engines. 

“Chatbots generated 34 times fewer visits than search engines over the past year,” OneLittleWeb says. 


Despite the rapid growth of AI chatbots, search engines remain far ahead in terms of daily traffic and overall usage.


source: OneLittleWeb


Acquired Lumen Home Fiber Assets to be Operated by a New Wholesale Company

The AT&T deal to acquire most of Lumen’s mass markets fiber internet business for $5.75 billion will give AT&T another one million residential fiber customers and likely four times that many “passings,” or potential customers. 

AT&T will hold the purchased assets in a "NetworkCo" that will eventually include equity ownership by a partner expected to contribute additional capital. 

AT&T expects to identify the equity partner in about six to 12 months after closing the transaction with Lumen, expected to happen in the first half of 2026. Once the equity partner is chosen, AT&T expects "NetworkCo" to be deconsolidated from its financial statements and operate as a wholesale commercial open access platform, with AT&T as the anchor tenant.

So, in essence, the acquired Lumen assets will be held by a new company, separate from AT&T, that operates using a wholesale-only business model.

Wednesday, May 21, 2025

AI Will Transform at Least 25% of Jobs, and That's Likely Way Too Conservative

A study by the International Labor Organization suggests artificial intelligence will transform about 25 percent of jobs. That might be a low estimate. 


Consider the impact of personal computers and digital skills. A 2023 report by the National Skills Coalition, in partnership with the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, found that 92 percent of jobs analyzed required digital skills. 


The Brookings Institution analyzed changes in the digital content of 545 occupations (covering 90 percent of the U.S. workforce) between 2002 and 2016. They found a significant shift. 


In 2002, 56 percent of jobs required low digital skills. By 2016, this dropped to 30 percent.


The share of jobs requiring high digital skills jumped from five percent in 2002 to 23 percent in 2016.


Jobs requiring medium digital skills rose from 40 percent to 48 percent.


By 1993, nearly half of all U.S. workers were operating computer keyboards at work, a steady increase from 25 percent in 1984.


So the notion that AI will only affect 25 percent of jobs seems quite low. 


Study

Year(s) of Research/Publication

Key Findings Regarding PC/Computer Transformation of Jobs

Percentage of Jobs Transformed/Affected (where specified)

Autor, Levy, and Murnane

2003 (and later related works)

Introduced the "routine-biased technological change" (RBTC) framework, showing how computers automate routine tasks (cognitive and manual), leading to job polarization (growth at high and low ends of the skill spectrum).

Implied significant transformation across jobs with routine tasks.

Autor, Katz, and Krueger (NBER Working Paper No. 5956)

1997

The computer revolution explains a substantial portion (30-50%) of the increasing wage gap between college-educated workers and those with less education since the 1980s. Industries with high computer use reorganized work to disproportionately employ more educated workers.

Significant impact on the skill premium; "nearly half" of workers used computer keyboards by 1993.

Frey and Osborne (Oxford University)

2013

Analyzed 702 occupations, classifying them by susceptibility to computerization. Found that jobs with tasks requiring perception & manipulation, creative intelligence, and social intelligence are less likely to be automated. Identified "bottlenecks" to automation.

47% of jobs are at "high risk" of being computerized.

Bessen (Scholarly Commons at Boston University School of Law)

2015

Argued that computer use is associated with faster employment growth in occupations that use computers more, even routine and mid-wage jobs. Emphasized that automation often augments labor and leads to job reallocation and skill changes, rather than net job loss.

Computer use associated with ~1.7% increase in employment per year at sample mean.

National Skills Coalition with Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta

2023

Analyzed 43 million online job postings. Found overwhelming demand for digital skills across nearly all industries and occupations, including entry-level. Highlighted a significant "digital skill divide" where many workers lack foundational digital skills.

92% of all jobs analyzed required digital skills (47% "definitely digital," 45% "likely digital").

Brookings Institution

Analysis up to 2016

Examined the digital content of 545 occupations. Found a significant increase in jobs requiring high digital skills and a decrease in those requiring low digital skills.

Share of jobs requiring high digital skills jumped from 5% (2002) to 23% (2016).<br>- Low digital skill jobs decreased from 56% (2002) to 30% (2016).

Dillender and Forsythe (NBER Working Paper 29866)

2022

Investigated the impact of computerization on office and administrative support jobs. Found a modest positive effect on wages and employment in local labor markets, though overall employment in office support fell. Increased skill levels needed for these positions.

Administrative support share of employment returned to 1950s levels by 2019 after peaking in 1980s.

McKinsey Global Institute

2017 (focusing on impact through 2030)

Explored how automation technologies (including AI and robotics, building on PC foundations) will change or replace jobs. Argued that while some jobs will be displaced, many more will be changed, and new ones created.

60% of occupations have at least 30% of constituent work activities that could be automated.<br>- Estimated 75 million to 375 million workers (3-14% of global workforce) will need to switch occupational categories by 2030.

Tuesday, May 20, 2025

It's Easy to Criticize Tax Policy, Hard to Manage Well

There always is plenty to disagree about whenever a change in U.S. taxation policy is proposed, and one frequent criticism is that the benefits of proposed tax reductions disproportionately benefit the wealthier taxpayers.


It is a charge one might always agree with, but policymakers always face a balancing act. 


On one hand, legislators must ensure that the federal government has adequate financial resources to cover its expenditures. The rest of us do not have that primary concern. Policymakers have to worry about the economic impact of any changes. The rest of us likely are more concerned about perceived fairness. 


But tax policy profoundly influences economic behavior. High marginal tax rates can discourage incentives to work, save, and invest. So the trick is to create structures that minimize disincentives while still generating revenue. And since capital “has no nationality,” tax rates often must be adjusted to make the U.S. more attractive for businesses compared to other countries.


The vast majority of federal government revenue comes from individual taxpayers, in the form of Individual income taxes and payroll taxes (social security). 


And that’s where we confront complicating issues, namely the actual incidence (who bears the burden of payment). In 2022, for example, the top one percent of taxpayers contributed 40 percent of all federal individual income taxes.


The top 10 percent of taxpayers  paid around 72 percent of income taxes.


Conversely, the bottom 50 percent of taxpayers contributed about three percent of revenue.


The point is that it typically is possible to argue that proposed changes are unfair in some major way: either because wealthier taxpayers get more of the benefits or must bear more of the burden; or because lower-income taxpayers or middle-income taxpayers do not receive enough of the benefits. 


Policymakers face a different problem: the only place changes are meaningful are at the top: The top 25 percent of filers contribute 87 percent of total revenue. 


Income Group

Share of Total Income Taxes Paid (2022)

Bottom 50%

3.00%

50% to 25%

10.00%



25% to 10%

15.00%

10% to 5%

11.00%

5% to 1%

21.00%

Top 1%

40.40%

Source: Tax Foundation, "Summary of the Latest Federal Income Tax Data, 2025 Update”


If one wishes to raise more revenue, it has to affect taxpayers at the top. If one wishes to cut taxes, it will disproportionately affect those at the top. 


That might never set too well with many citizens, but is a fundamental policymaker constraint. Also, though “soak the rich” might be a nice bumper sticker for some, investment effects matter. 


Looking only at public markets, the top 10 percent of U.S. households own about 93 percent of U.S. households' stock market wealth, with the richest one percent owning 54 percent of public equity markets, according to the Institute for Policy Studies, based on Federal Reserve data. The bottom 50 percent of U.S. households own less than one percent of stock market wealth.


The point is that private investment hinges on a small percentage of U.S. households. So policymakers have to balance revenue needs with fairness with maintaining investment incentives. “Soak the rich” might be popular in some circles. It is not so easy for policymakers.


Hot Buzzwords are Part of Computing Supplier Marketing War

Hot buzzwords always seem to have been part of the sales and marketing spin for computing-related companies and their products. Today’s effort is to label everything “AI.” But “com” was the rage around the turn of the century and “personal” was key in the 1980s. “Cloud” and “virtualized” are of more-recent vintage. “Zero trust” and “low code/no code” have been heard over the last few years. 


Era/Period

Buzzword(s)

Context / Typical Usage

1980s–Early 1990s

Personal Computer (PC), GUI, Multimedia

Launch of consumer computing, graphical interfaces

Late 1990s

.COM, E-commerce, Web Applications, ASP

Internet boom, online business, dynamic web development

Early 2000s

Distributed Computing, XML, COM, CORBA

System integration, interoperability, enterprise IT

Mid-2000s

SOA, Web Services, Agile, Best Practices

Modular software, service integration, project mgmt

Late 2000s

Cloud Computing, Virtualization, SaaS

Move to hosted services, scalable infrastructure

Early 2010s

Big Data, Mobile-First, BYOD, DevOps

Data analytics, mobile devices, agile IT operations

Mid-2010s

IoT (Internet of Things), Machine Learning, Blockchain, Chatbots

Connected devices, automation, decentralized ledgers

Late 2010s

AI (Artificial Intelligence), Digital Transformation, Edge Computing, AR/VR

Automation, business change, real-time processing, immersive tech

Early 2020s

Metaverse, Quantum Computing, Zero Trust, Multi-Cloud, Serverless, Low Code/No Code

Virtual worlds, advanced computing, security, cloud strategies, simplified dev

Mid-2020s (2024–2025)

Generative AI, Cloud-Native, FinOps, Hybrid Cloud, Cloud Security Posture Management (CSPM), Anywhere Operations

AI content creation, optimized cloud, financial ops, security, remote work


Content Attention Spans Continue to Contract!

It is quite hard to argue against the notion that content attention spans in the digital era have contracted, leading to more consumption of...