If you run a business, work for a business, or want to work for a business, these are tooth-gnashing numbers. The blue is actual economic growth. The red line is our debt burden. You know what it means.
Consumption, spending and therefore growth will be choked for decades as debt repayments pinch back spending on every level. To get that red line back to where it needs to be, the blue line will continue to struggle, as we "spend" our money on debt service and principal reduction, instead of "buying stuff" that suppliers can sell.
Getting the blue line growing faster than the red line is the key to generating enough surplus to pay off the debt. But paying off the debt will slow growth. That isn't to say every type of spending by businesses and consumers "has" to decline equally.
You can make the argument that some segments, such as consumer appliances, could do better than other segments. We do love our gadgets. But even then, there must be trade-offs made elsewhere.
Gnash, gnash, gnash.
If you subtract the added debt from GDP, this is what really is happening:
Friday, June 22, 2012
Gnashing Teeth Numbers
Gary Kim has been a digital infra analyst and journalist for more than 30 years, covering the business impact of technology, pre- and post-internet. He sees a similar evolution coming with AI. General-purpose technologies do not come along very often, but when they do, they change life, economies and industries.
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