Netherlands Mobile Service Providers Already Seeing 4G Spectrum Bid Problems

Vodafone shares fell 2.8 percent, and KPN said it wouldn't be able pay its promised end-of-year dividend. Those are two examples of how "success" in the Netherlands 4G spectrum auction is having financial effects on the auction "winners."

KPN bid €1.35 billion for 120 MHz of 4G spectrum covering the Netherlands, The Register reports. 

That doesn't necessarily mean Netherlands service providers have spent too much to acquire 4G spectrum. That can only be assessed over time. But there is recent precedent for the entire European mobile industry overspending for 3G spectrum, and some might say the industry is heading for that same mistake again. 

On April 27, 2000, the United Kingdom auctioned off five licenses for 3G wireless spectrum, raising $35 billion. Over the next year, a half-dozen other European countries held their own auctions, raising a combined $100 billion in a frenzy of overbidding. 

Ever since then, some have worried about the potential downside of "winning" a major spectrum auction. 

As you might expect, most of the new 4G spectrum that recently was won in the Netherlands spectrum auction were the biggest mobile service providers in the Netherlands. That happened despite restrictions on how much new spectrum the leading mobile service providers could acquire. 

In the auction, two spectrum blocks in the 800 megahertz band and one in the 900 MHz band will be reserved for new entrants. That was the provision that allowed Swedish mobile operator Tele-2 to secure 20 megahertz of spectrum in the 800 MHz band. 

Vodafone and KPN spent the most, with T-Mobile spending about 66 percent of what Vodafone and KPN invested. Tele-2 spent about 12 percent of what Vodafone and KPN spent, but also acquired a modest chunk of the new spectrum.

KPN has about 47 percent market share, while Vodafone has about 29 percent and T-Mobile has about 24 percent. Tele-2, a Swedish operator, also is entering the market. 

The 3.8 billion euros ($4.97 billion) proceeds were much higher than observers anticipated, far surpassing  the EUR400-500 million the government had expected.

European mobile phone companies spent $129 billion six years ago to buy 3G licenses  that were expected to trigger new revenue-generating services. As recently as 2006, though, that had not proven to be the case. 

The U.K.’s 3G auction raised £22.5 billion ($35.7 billion) in 2000, amounts that nearly bankrupted most of the firms that won the bids.