If “content” is the reason consumers choose to buy a particular streaming video service, then it stands to reason that as content availability changes, so might the fortunes of various suppliers.
Up to this point, the dominant streaming services were built on a wide breadth of popular licensed content from networks and studios. But original content now has become a key feature, and as licensed content is pulled back by copyright owners to fuel their own rival services, content fragmentation is going to increase.
That is likely to increase consumer unhappiness and lead to new forms of bundling. Ironically, that bundling was for decades the key value of linear services, which aggregated a huge amount of content, most of which was not watched by any single consumer.
One way or the other, original content now will move to the forefront of buying decisions. If popular TV series now are “licensed” to third parties, but is restricted in the future to the copyright owner’s own services, it immediately becomes “original” content. In other words, if Disney content can only be viewed on a Disney streaming service, or Warner Media content can only be viewed on a Warner Media service, that content becomes “original,” not “licensed.”
Netflix has been preparing for such a future for some time, in part because it is following the HBO playbook, which is to build the franchise precisely on original content.
Not everybody agrees on the value of licensed content, though. It is conceivable that some services might continue to rely on bundles of licensed content, either because they cannot afford to create much original content, or because their own niche original content is not broadly appealing enough to generate scale.
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