Is U.S. Consumer Internet Access Market Near Saturation?

If roughly 100 million locations buy fixed network broadband service, and if six percent of those accounts are purchased by business customers, then consumer broadband might be bought by about 94 million U.S. households, out of a base of perhaps 122 million to 135 million total homes. Using the 122 million figure, that implies an adoption rate of about 77 percent. 

Mobile-only households might represent as much as 20 percent of U.S. homes, or perhaps 24.4 million households. Taking the 94 million U.S. homes buying fixed network broadband, and adding the mobile-only households, perhaps 117 million U.S. homes buy either mobile or fixed broadband, excluding satellite broadband customers, which might represent an additional two million accounts. 

If so, then about 119 million U.S. households buy internet access from telcos, cable companies or satellite internet firms. But one also must add customers of wireless ISPs, serving perhaps four million customers. Adding those, one reaches a subscriber base of about 123 million homes.

In other words, we are very nearly at the point where every household that wants to boy internet access already does so.