Wednesday, December 18, 2019

How Fast Will 5G be Adopted?

Opinions about 5G adoption rates range from "about the same as 4G" to "slower" or "faster" than 4G. In the long term, 5G is virtualy certain to become as widespread as 4G, but observers disagree about near-term adoption--compared to 3G and 4G.

CCS Insight sees 5G adoption taking a broadly similar path to 4G LTE technology. Subscriptions to 5G networks will reach 2.6 billion in 2025.


But eMarketer, apparently quoting CCS Insight, is showing slightly-higher numbers, even though it bases its chart on the CCS Insight data. Perhaps CCS Insight has itself revised its projections since October 2019, when the original forecast was released. 


It is conceivable that the eMarketer estimate adds fixed 5G connections, but CCS Insight believes such connections will be about one percent of total 5G. That would not be enough to change the eMarketer estimates so much. 


Other estimates suggest fewer than one billion 5G subscriptions by 20234. 




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