Estimates of annual global telecom service provider revenue vary by about $300 billion to $400 billion, from a low of about $1.4 trillion to a high of about $1.8 billion. Those figures typically are of little importance to most people inside and outside the industry, but are vital for analysts who estimate the importance of new revenue sources and markets.
This matters, for example, when trying to assess the revenue contribution any new product might represent. Under normal circumstances, global service provider revenue grows by at a slow rate. Growth in the 1.5 percent range or less is the present status for the industry overall, though some markets and some companies see higher growth than the average.
The point is that organic revenue growth can be as low as $20 billion to $30 billion in a typical year. So any new product that generates $20 billion to $30 billion in industry new revenue in any given year is a big deal.
It is almost certain that global service provider revenues from multi-access edge computing, for example, will be in the single-digit billions ($ billion) range over the next few years. The same is true of forecasts of service provider internet of things revenue. The service provider 4G or 5G private networks revenue stream is likely to be small as well.
The point is that new revenue sources such as edge computing, IoT and private networks are unlikely to move the global service provider revenue needle over the next several years, and perhaps not for a decade.
Those revenues might be more important in a handful of markets, however, such as large countries that are early adopters. Even there, however, the large installed base of revenue means the incremental growth from the new services will make a generally slight contribution.
In some part, the growth challenge is the result of the size of the installed base itself.
When including the value of subscription TV services, the global telecom services market (mobile plus fixed) amounts to about $1.8 trillion in annual revenues, according to Precedence Research. The firm uses a cumulative annual growth rate of 4.85 percent from 2022 to 2030, a figure most observers would likely agree is too optimistic.
Grand View Research estimates revenue in about the same range. But others, such as Analysys Mason, tally global revenue at a lower level. closer to $1.4 trillion.
IDC forecasts are close to those of Analysys Mason, with 2021 revenue in the $1.5 trillion range.
As a rule, I have found the more-conservative figures are closer to reality. What matters is the impact new service sources could make.
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