Metaverse or AR/VR? It Matters Which Definition One Uses

With the caveat that we all can be wrong when predicting the future, a new study of 350 chief technology officers, chief information officers and IT director technology leaders from the U.S., U.K., China, India, and Brazil suggests 2023 technologies of note are cloud computing (40 percent), 5G (38 percent), metaverse (37 percent), electric vehicles (EVs) (35 percent), and the Industrial Internet of Things (IIoT) (33 percent).

What might be shocking is the appearance of "metaverse" on the list of 2023 priorities. All the others seem uncontroversial to a large extent. The inclusion of metaverse is the surprise. But the key to understanding the response is to note that the functional representation of metaverse is goggles, headsets or glasses used for VR or AR experiences and content.

Many of us would not consider those to be "metaverse."

As you might expect, respondents identified 5G and ubiquitous connectivity  (71 percent); virtual reality (VR) headsets (58 percent) and augmented reality (AR) glasses (58 percent) as the near-term key technologies. 

The IEEE study  probed for views about 2023 technologies expected to be important even for longer-run developments, including the metaverse.

It is unclear how aggressively respondents will be pursuing use of what we might term “pre-metaverse” tools in 2023, however. As with many relatively open-ended surveys of attitudes, respondents might not have had to make firm predictions about how important, and when, various important technologies would correlate with actual information technology spending. 

Views about use of artificial intelligence also vary, but might also be considered less likely to drive major investments in 2023. 

And despite slow going at first, respondents expect 5G  to affect vehicle connectivity and automation in 2023, fully 97 percent of survey respondents agree.

Most affected in 2023 are: 

• (56 percent) remote learning and education

• (54 percent) telemedicine, including remote surgery, health record transmissions

• (51 percent) entertainment, sports, and live event streaming

• (49 percent) personal and professional day-to-day communications

• (29 percent) transportation and traffic control

• (25 percent) manufacturing/assembly

• (23 percent) carbon footprint reduction and energy efficiency

Also, 95 percent believe satellites for remote mobile connectivity will be a game-changer in 2023. 

As always, when there are no consequences for being “wrong,” the predictions are to be considered indicative of possible future trends rather than correlated directly with 2023 spending. 

All of us who have had to make technology forecasts have a poor track record, as predicting the future is inherently difficult. Nor did the survey force respondents to consider all the other assumptions a fully-formed forecast would require. 

It might not be wrong to argue that most predictions are wrong, not only in terms of what happened, but also how long it took to get there. There are many examples of how we get it wrong all the time.