Announcements about multi-gigabit home broadband upgrades now have become so commonplace we are no longer surprised by the advances, which so outstrip the usual recommendations for minimum app bandwidth that we must reckon speed claims as marketing platforms, not user requirements.
In fact, the primary value of any home broadband connection is assuring minimum bandwidth for all the simultaneously-connected devices at a location. The actual capacity required by any single app or device are quite low, in comparison to gigabit or multi-gigabit services.
As observers always seem to note, web browsing, use of email and social media are low-bandwidth use cases, rarely actually requiring more than a couple of megabits per app.
As always, entertainment video is the bandwidth hog, as high-definition TV might require up to 10 Mbps per stream. 4K and 8K streaming will require more bandwidth: up to 35 Mbps for 4K and perhaps 100 Mbps for 8K, per stream, when it is generally available.
Online gaming might require a minimum of 10 Mbps. Work at home generally is a low-bandwidth requirement, with one exception: video conferencing or perhaps some remote work apps. Some recommend 10 Mbps to 20 Mbps in such cases.
So the key variable for any specific home user is how many people, devices and apps are used concurrently, with the key bandwidth variable being video streaming beyond high definition content (4K, at the moment).
But even in a home where two 4K streams are running (up to 70 Mbps); two online gaming sessions are happening at the same time (up to 20 Mbps) and perhaps three casual mobile phone sessions (up to 6 Mbps), total bandwidth only amounts to perhaps 96 Mbps.
Gigabit speeds are overkill, in that scenario. And yet we are moving to multi-gigabit services. We know more capacity will be needed over time. But right now, home broadband speed claims are in the realm of marketing platforms, as available bandwidth so outstrips user requirements.
Many estimate that by 2025, the “average” home broadband user might still require less than 300 Mbps worth of capacity. Nielsen’s law of course predicts that the top available commercial speeds in 2025 will be about 10 Gbps.
That does not mean the “typical” customer will buy services at that rate. In fact, quite few will do so (adoption in single digits, probably). In 2025, perhaps half of customers might buy services operating at 1 Gbps, if present purchasing patterns continue to hold.
Whatever the top “headline rate,” most customers buy services operating at 10 percent to 40 percent of that headline rate.
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