We Cannot Predict What We Cannot Yet Imagine

It is fairly easy to predict that artificial intelligence will affect many--if not most, or all--industries, as the advent of personal computing, smartphones and cloud computing have done. In fact, lots of studies look at the expected AI impact on industries and products that already exist. 

For example, we can predict that we will see:

AI-powered personalized education

AI-driven healthcare

AI-enabled autonomous vehicles

AI-powered creative industries

AI-enabled space exploration

AI-powered cybersecurity

AI-enabled climate change mitigation

AI-driven financial services

AI-enabled legal services

AI-powered manufacturing

AI-enabled agriculture

Likewise, new products will incorporate AI, in forms such as:

AI-powered personal assistants

AI-powered medical devices

AI-enabled self-driving cars and trucks

AI-powered creative tools

AI-powered educational software

AI-powered cybersecurity solutions

AI-powered climate change mitigation technologies

AI-powered financial trading platforms

AI-powered legal research tools

AI-powered manufacturing robots

AI-powered agricultural equipment

Prediction	Study Title	Publication Date	Publication Venue
Personalized education	The Future of Learning: AI and the Next Generation of Education	2023	McKinsey Global Institute
AI-powered healthcare	Artificial Intelligence and the Future of Healthcare: A Report by the National Academy of Medicine	2019	National Academy of Medicine
Self-driving cars and trucks	Self-Driving Cars: The Next Revolution in Transportation	2016	World Economic Forum
AI-powered robots	The Future of Jobs and the Rise of Artificial Intelligence	2017	Pew Research Center
AI-powered customer service	AI and Customer Experience: The Future of Service	2020	Forrester Research
AI-powered legal services	The Future of Law: AI and the Transformation of the Legal Profession	2018	American Bar Association
AI-powered cybersecurity	AI and Cybersecurity: The Next Frontier	2021	Center for Strategic and International Studies
AI-powered financial services	AI and the Future of Finance: A Report by the World Economic Forum	2018	World Economic Forum
AI-powered logistics and supply chain management	AI and the Future of Logistics: A Report by the World Economic Forum	2019	World Economic Forum
AI-powered entertainment and media	AI and the Future of Entertainment: A Report by the World Economic Forum	2020	World Economic Forum

But that’s sort of an imaginative problem. We see ways AI can change or benefit what already exists. We have a really hard time envisioning how AI might create things which do not exist, and the industries and firms that will produce them. 

As former Apple CEO Steve Jobs used to say, one cannot predict consumer interest in a product they have never seen. Nor can we easily imagine what really-new things and industries might arise from AI.