Sunday, June 1, 2025

Commercial Search (Shopping) Might Represent 35% of All Searches (Possibly AI Queries)

With the caveat that nobody outside the major search engine providers knows precisely what percentage of search queries fall into various categories, it seems clear enough that “commerce-related” queries are growing as a percentage of total, as seen in the share of search queries on Amazon. 


The point is that when looking at the potential impact of artificial intelligence on search, not all the effects we might see are “caused” by AI. Other shifts are happening. Looking at search advertising revenue, for example, Amazon’s share is rising. 


source: Seeking Alpha 


The point is that before we even debate the impact of generative AI chatbots on search, we already see a pre-existing trend of search becoming more prominent in the context of shopping. 


It’s a bit like the trends we have seen in the use of landline phone lines. To some extent, we note the shift from traditional public switched telephone services to VoIP services, for example. But that might arguably be a secondary trend, compared to the shift from reliance on fixed networks to mobile networks and smartphones for voice services. 


And it arguably is the shift to mobile phone use that is the bigger change, not the shift from legacy voice to VoIP on fixed networks.  


Time Period

% of Adults in Wireless-Only Households

Jan 2004 - June 2005

~5%

July - Dec 2007

14.50%

Jan - June 2010

24.90%

July - Dec 2010

27.80%

Jan - June 2012

34.00%

July - Dec 2013

39.10%

July - Dec 2014

45.40%

July - Dec 2017

53.90%

Full Year 2018

56.00%

July - Dec 2019

61.30%

Jan - June 2020

62.50%

July - Dec 2021

68.70%

Jan - June 2022

70.70%

July - Dec 2023

76.00%


By some estimates, 10 percent to 20 percent of all search queries are related to a shopping function. 

Another 10 percent to 15 percent involve research of a product arguably related to shopping. Amazon’s growing share of search volume reflects that trend. 


Query Type

Description

Estimated Percentage of Searches

Example Queries

Informational

Seeking information, answers to questions, learning about a topic.

~50-80%

"how does photosynthesis work?", "capital of France", "symptoms of flu"

Navigational

Trying to reach a specific website or page.

~10-20%

"Facebook login", "YouTube", "Amazon customer service"

Transactional

Intending to complete an action or transaction, like buying something.

~10-20%

"buy running shoes online", "cheap flights to hawaii", "netflix subscription"

Commercial

Researching products/services before a potential purchase (often overlaps with transactional).

~10-15%

"best smartphones 2025", "laptop reviews", "dell vs hp comparison"

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