How Much Can AI Boost Economic Growth?

As always, assumptions are crucial when attempting to assess the impact artificial intelligence might have on economic growth.

According to electrical energy industry estimates, which we can probably assume are on the high side, the electric power industry underpins about five percent of U.S. gross domestic product. That might not be so helpful where it comes to understanding the potential contribution to boosting economic growth. Can

The largest GDP growth rate differences attributable to electrification occurred during the 1950s to 1960s, as manufacturing and industry were electricity intensive. During this period the U.S. saw high GDP growth (annual rates often four percent to five percent).

That doesn’t mean electricity accounted for most of that growth, but underpinned the growth. 

The widespread adoption of computers perhaps contributed 0.1 to 0.4 percentage points to the U.S. GDP growth per year during their major expansion phase (late 1980s–90s), according to the Bureau of Economic Analysis.  

Generative AI forecasts estimate a 0.4 percentage point annual boost to U.S. GDP growth over the coming decade as AI adoption spreads, according to a study. 

Estimated GDP Boost from Electricity, Computing, and AI GPTs

Technology	Estimated Percentage GDP Boost
Electricity	~5% of total U.S. GDP
Computing	0.1–0.4 percentage points per year to GDP growth
AI (Generative/Advanced)	0.4 percentage points per year to GDP growth (projected)