How Significant Will Google "Nexus One" Be?

It's increasingly clear that a new Google-branded "Nexus One" unlocked smartphone will be sold in 2010. What remains unclear is how much impact the device will have, for a number of prosaic reasons. Unless Google has designed a dual-mode, multi-band device capable of operating on both GSM and CDMA air interfaces, roughly half the market will be inaccessible. Even if the device is GSM certified, it has to be built using a radio operating across all U.S. GSM bands, and that isn't entirely clear, yet.

It might be the case that the Nexus One simply has not yet been certified for AT&T's 3G spectrum bands, or for Sprint and Verizon networks using CDMA. For an unlocked device to work across all four of the major U.S. networks, that would be required.

So far, it appears the device is certified only on some of the U.S. GSM bands. What that means is that T-Mobile USA absolutely will be able to support the Nexus One. It might work on AT&T's spectrum as well, but it isn't completely clear that is the case, at the moment. So far, AT&T has declined to offer an Android-based device in its device line up.

That issue should be clarified soon enough. The other issue is the retail price of the phone. Unlocked phones can be bought now in the U.S. market, but few consumers do so, because of the price. Perhaps Google plans to subsidize the device, but if not, Nexus One will not be a mass market device at the start. Few consumers buy devices at $600 when a subsidized device costs $200 to $300.

Perhaps Google plans to offer an installment plan, which will help. If the Nexus One really provides a better user experience, it will be helpful. But if it is sold at full retail price, and works on just one U.S. GSM network, its impact will be limited, to begin with.