Data Revenues Might Hit 50% of Total in 2013

Data revenues now represent nearly 45 percent of U.S. mobile industry service revenues and the 50-percent level might happen in 2013.

After that point, data will represent the majority of U.S. service provider revenue, for the first time, according to projections by analyst Chetan Sharma.

The U.S. mobile data market grew 14 percent year-over-year to reach $21 billion in mobile data revenues, according to Sharma.

In 2013, U.S. mobile service providers will earn $90 billion in mobile data service revenues. Verizon and AT&T between them represent 70 percent of the mobile data services revenue and 66 percent of the customer base.

The data also illustrates how the maturing market now will be lead by changes in revenues per account, as the number of new human accounts (not machine to machine connections) that can be added is dwindling.

In the first quarter of 2013, 1.1 million new connections were activated, a decline of 60 percent, year over year, Sharma says. But most of those net additions were of the prepaid variety.

U.S. operators added 200,000 postpaid subs and 1.2 million total net new subscribers. Verizon got 720,000 of the net adds. AT&T got 291,000 and T-Mobile added 5,000.

So between them, Verizon and AT&T accounted for 86 percent of the net adds.  

Though overall average revenue per user increased 35 cents, voice ARPU declined by 42 cents. Average data ARPU grew by 87 cents, sequentially.

Smart phones represented about 85 percent of the devices sold in the first quarter of 2013.

And it never is too soon for service providers to get ready for the next wave of growth after mobile data.

The next wave of growth might be significantly more challenging, though, as it might involve creating new lines of business beyond today’s voice, messaging, Internet access framework, and involve multiple lines of business such as cloud computing, commerce, payments, connected home or connected automobile, identity management and analytics that each will face serious competitors.

Beyond that, each of the new businesses are vertical rather than horizontal, meaning each new opportunity is a niche, compared to the universal “voice, data, messaging” appeal of basic mobility.