Economic Impact from Large Language Models Should Rival the Internet

Keeping in mind the wide range of assumptions that must be made about “total value creation” by any single general purpose technology, and with the important caveat that the time frame over which that contribution is measured, we can still note that estimates for large language models alone are sizable. 

GPT	Study Name	Published Date	Publication Venue	Estimated Value Creation
Electricity	The Economic History of Energy	1989	Stanford University Press	$50 trillion (1980 USD) by 1980
Internal Combustion Engine	The Motorcar and Industrial Revolution	1984	Allen Lane	$25 trillion (1980 USD) by 1980
Internet	The Internet Economy	2015	MIT Press	$10 trillion (2015 USD)
Internet	Digital Economy Report 2021	2021	UNCTAD	$15.5 trillion (2020 USD)
GPT-3 (Early Estimates)	The AI Revolution: The Road to Superintelligence	2016	Viking	$15 trillion (2016 USD) by 2030
GPT-3 (Early Estimates)	Economic Impact of Large Language Models	2022	PwC	$6 trillion (2025 USD)
Electricity	The Economic Growth of Nations	1963	Economic Journal	15-30 trillion
Electricity	The Impact of Electricity on American Growth and Welfare	1992	Journal of Economic History	10-20 trillion
Internal Combustion Engine	The Automobile and the American Economy	1955	American Economic Review	5-10 trillion
	The Internal Combustion Engine and US Economic Growth	2007	Explorations in Economic History	7-15 trillion
Internet	The Internet Economy: Opportunities and Challenges	2011	McKinsey Global Institute	5-10 trillion
	The Value of the Internet: Evidence from the Dark Web	2023	Science	8-15 trillion
Large Language Models (LLMs)	The Economic Potential of Artificial Intelligence	2022	World Bank	1-10 trillion  (by 2030)

Annual contributions would of course run in the “billions of dollars” range. 

All such analyses are highly dependent on the research assumptions and dates studied, so the figures are not directly comparable. 

GPT	Study Name	Publication Date	Publishing Venue	Estimated Annual Value Creation (Trillion USD)
Electricity	The Economic Effects of Universal Electrification	2016	Journal of Economic Growth	0.5-1.0
Internal Combustion Engine	The Impact of the Automobile and Truck on the U.S. Economy	2004	Explorations in Economic History	0.2-0.5
Internet	The Internet's Global Value Add	2023	Citigroup	8.0-15.0
Large Language Models (LLMs): GPT-3	The Economic Potential of Large Language Models	2022	McKinsey Global Institute	0.1-1.0
Quantum Computing	Quantum Computing: Economic Opportunities and Challenges	2021	National Academies Press	0.1-1.0

We can’t yet be confident that we know how extensive AI impact will have on economies and industries. But if AI does become a GPT, its impact will be substantial, perhaps on the order of the impact the internet itself has had.