As a rule, utility-type industries and firms (whether formally regulated as public utilities or not) tend to grow at rates just a bit over the underlying inflation rate. So the underlying inflation rate really does matter.
That might also tend to temper excessive optimism about “telcos becoming techcos” and thereby boosting their growth rates. So long as most of the revenue is earned from supplying the connectivity function, growth rates are unlikely to shift higher.
But few industries tend to grow at six-percent to nine-percent annual rates, if that is the hope in the connectivity industry.
So retail telecom services globally are expected to grow at a compound average growth rate of perhaps 4.9 percent between 2023 and 2028, exceeding inflation rates in most countries (assuming inflation rates decline to around two percent).
The actual range of forecasts runs from about two percent up to six percent in some cases, with global expectations in the two percent to three percent range, a blend of higher rates in Asia, probably North America and the Middle East and lower rates elsewhere.
The global electricity market is expected to grow at a CAGR of 3.3 percent between 2022 and 2027, again exceeding inflation.
The global water utilities market is expected to grow at a CAGR of 3.9 percent between 2023 and 2032, exceeding inflation.
Likewise, the global waste management market is expected to grow at a CAGR of 4.2 percent between 2022 and 2027, exceeding inflation.
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