Artificial intelligence processing “at the edge” most likely needs to be qualified, as most of the processing is likely to happen on devices such as smartphones and PCs. Mizuho analysts, for example, forecast one billion AI smartphones shipped from 2024 to 2027. Intel, for its part, expects to ship 40 million AI PC processors in 2024 alone.
Year | On-Device AI Chip Shipments (Millions) | On-Device AI Deployments (Billions) | On-Device AI Sales ($US Billion) | Source |
2024 | 5.2 - 6.0 | 12.0 - 14.4 | 28.5 - 34.2 | IDC AIoT Market Forecast |
2025 | 6.8 - 8.0 | 16.3 - 19.2 | 42.1 - 49.8 | Gartner Forecast: Edge Computing |
2026 | 8.7 - 10.2 | 21.0 - 25.2 | 62.4 - 74.7 | Digi-Capital [On-Device AI Report] |
2027 | 11.0 - 13.0 | 27.0 - 32.4 | 89.1 - 105.3 | Yole Developpement [AI Hardware Market Report |
Keep in mind that “AI capabilities” are going to be a feature of PCs and smartphones, rather than a distinct product category. Irrespective of the ultimate value of AI on such devices, we will be able to measure sales of products that are AI-capable, even if we might not easily be able to measure the incremental usefulness of AI on PCs and smartphones.
Year | AI PC Sales Revenue | AI Smartphone Sales Revenue | Source |
2024 | 102.3 - 127.8 | 214.6 - 268.3 | Gartner |
2025 | 148.5 - 185.7 | 287.1 - 352.4 | IDC |
2026 | 207.2 - 259.8 | 382.4 - 470.9 | Counterpoint Research |
2027 | 281.4 - 347.1 | 501.2 - 613.8 | Strategy Analytics |
AI “as a service” revenues might be robust as well.
Year | Gartner | Forrester | IDC | McKinsey | Average |
2024 | 132.5 | 117.2 | 125.8 | 150.4 | 128.9 |
2025 | 172.8 | 154.1 | 168.3 | 192.7 | 171.9 |
2026 | 223.7 | 202.4 | 221.5 | 247.8 | 221.1 |
2027 | 288.2 | 262.3 | 285.4 | 315.7 | 287.9 |
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