Reuters reports that OpenAI is considering an initial public offering with a firm valuation of $1trillion as early as 2026. That might make it the largest IPO ever.
A $1 trillion valuation today implies that investors believe OpenAI is on an accelerated track to be a $50-100 billion revenue company in the near term, with a defensible technology that will allow it to capture a dominant share of the multi-trillion dollar global AI market.
OpenAI's current projected revenue is around $12 billion to $15 billion (annualized for 2025). To reach a $1 trillion valuation at its current revenue, it would need a 66x to 83x revenue multiple.
That implies annual revenue somewhere between$50 billion to $125 billion.
That also implies that OpenAI maintains triple-digit or very-high double-digit growth rates for five to seven years.
It also might imply that OpenAI is not just conquering a new software category, but is capturing a significant portion of global information technology spending, including developer tools, cloud services, and enterprise software across multiple industries.
That might seem unrealistic, but would fit the “winner take most” or “winner take all” character of recent internet markets.
Such a valuation might also imply difficulty for traditional suppliers of enterprise software, as ChatGPT increasingly becomes a functional substitute for many traditional functions and apps.
Of course, rivals including Anthropic, Google DeepMind, and Meta also are building platforms, distribution networks and developer ecosystems designed to secure long-term dominance in the field.
You can make your own guess as to the likelihood of OpenAI achieving its goal of supporting its $1 trillion valuation with revenues.
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