Google Growth Uneven

Some observers caution that Google is over-estimated where it comes to innovation. "Not everything Google does succeeds," that line of thinking goes. And of course that is quite correct. Lots of things Google has done have not been runaway successes. Some initiatives have failed, plain and simple. GTalk hasn't caught on, and Google bought YouTube because Google's home-grown video site wasn't getting traction.

Perhaps the implication is that potential competitors shouldn't fear Google as much as they seem to, as Google fails often enough. Perhaps the other way to look at matters is the frequency with which Google does, in fact, succeed, compared to the number of attempts. And given the number of attempts, the more Google fails, the more it will discover things that work.

Sure, Google seems to go off on tangents now and then. Google defends these explorations as attempts to find other really big businesses. Maybe. And maybe Google just goes off on tangents now and then. Either way, the attempt to start new things is going to lead to lots of failures, if Google tries enough new things. Some of us might argue that is precisely what makes Google so fearsome: it innovates so fast for a firm its size.

Still, the observation that Google does not succeed with much of anything outside of search might be premature. Even "search" took a while to catch on. So, no, Google does not immediately dominate "every" market or segment it enters. It experiments. It fails. If it succeeds 10 percent of the time, and fails often enough, it just might discover some significant-sized new businesses.