Live TV Losing Younger Adults

Nearly three in five US consumers watch at least some video on a device other than a television, according to market researcher Morpace. Time shifting using a digital video recorder, DVDs, online and video on demand represent about 48 percent of overall video consumption.

Overall, across demographic cohorts, Morpace found 52 percent of total TV viewing time consisted of live TV. Among younger adults ages 18 to 34, that proportion fell to 41 percent. Adults 55 and up watched live TV almost two thirds of the time, but even Gen Xers and younger boomers were evenly split between live TV and several timeshifting nethods.

Online was the most popular alternative to live TV, with about half of consumers using some online source for viewing video content, and another 23 percent using a streaming video service.

Live TV Losing Younger Adults

13% of Multichannel Video Subs Might Cancel in Next 12 Months, Survey Finds

Some 13 percent of current multichannel video subscribers in the United States say they are "somewhat" or "very" likely to cancel their current subscription in the next twelve months, and not sign up with a competing provider, according to a survey of 2,000 US households recently conducted by Strategy Analytics.

“While it may represent only a relatively small percentage today, we anticipate the number of cord cutters to increase going forward,” says Ben Piper, Strategy Analytics director.

Younger Americans consume and value content in a way far different from their parents’ generation, and have little regard for how content is delivered, says Piper. That is undoubtedly true. What still remains unknown is the degree to which consumers will do what they say they will (often they do not).

The other unknown is the extent to which service providers will adapt by offering on-demand access to desired content, shoring up demand for the traditional product by requiring a traditional subscription in order to access the on-demand content.

The other angle is the extent to which younger users, who have grown up in households where somebody else pays the bill, and who initially do not subscribe (to save money) when founding their own households, might change their views as they progress in their careers and find "saving money" by not subscribing is not the big consideration it once was.

So far, online and mobile video seems to be supplemental, not a replacement for multichannel video services, for nearly everyone. The verifiable percentage of users who have had service and stopped using it seems to be somewhere less than three percent of households.

The percentage of all households that buy broadband access but not video service is in the three percent range or so, Nielsen says, for example. The issue there is that not every household that doesn't buy video service is a "cord cutter." Some newly-formed or temporary households do not buy video entertainment services, but are not, strictly speaking, "cord cutters."

They might never have bought multichannel video service before, but that is not always an indication they do not want the product, or will not buy it in the future. Also, there have always been some households that do not buy such services because they do not see the value, and three percent of households would not be at all unusual on that score.

The point is that actual levels of "video cord cutting" are rather insignificant at the moment, and barely different from "non-subscribing" video households overall.

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Google Got the Most Video Views, Tremor Media the Most Ad Views, in July

Google got the most video views in July, but Tremor Media served up the most video ads in July 2010, according to comScore.

Not Much Actual Video Cord Cutting Going On, Nielsen Says

Consumers who really have stopped buying multi-channel video and watch online video instead are young and light TV viewers, a new analysis by Nielsen suggests.

Young, emerging households, younger college graduates and  lower to middle income consumers who may not be fully convinced of the need to pay for digital cable represent the core group abandoning their multi-channel video subscriptions and substituting online video.

Nielsen data shows that these individuals are typically light TV viewers who watch 40 percent less TV per day than the national average. And while they stream about twice the average amount of video, they still only stream about 10 minutes per day, hardly an indication of a monumental shift to online-only viewing, Nielsen says.

The number of people per month viewing online video increased six percent year-over-year, the study shows.

Online video streaming still only accounts for less than 2.5 percent of total video consumption across all demographics.

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Global Broadband and Video Revenue to Grow Robustly

Spending on wired and mobile Internet access will rise from $228 billion in 2009 to $351 billion in 2014, PriceWaterhouseCoopers now predicts, representing growth of about 54 percent. Video subscriptions will grow as well.

The global television subscription and license fee market will increase from $185.9 billion in 2009 to $258.1 billion in 2014, a compount annual growth rate of 6.8 per cent. This will outpace TV advertising, which will grow at a CAGR of 5.7 per cent.

The biggest component of this market is subscription spending and this will increase at 7.5 per cent CAGR to $210.8 billion in 2014. Asia Pacific will be the fastest-growing region with a 10 per cent compund annual increase rising to $47.1 billion in 2014 from $29.2 billion in 2009.

Total global spending on consumer magazines fell by 10.6 percent in 2009, PwC says. The firm projects an additional 2.7 per cent decrease in 2010, a flat market in 2011, and modest growth during 2012–14. As a result, spending will total $74 billion in 2014, up 0.7 percent compounded annually from $71.5 billion in 2009.

Electronic educational books will grow at a CAGR of 36.5 per cent globally throughout the forecast period yet will still only account for less than six per cent of global spend on educational books in 2014.

As a whole, the media and entertainment market will grow by five percent compounded annually for the entire forecast period to 2014 reaching $1.7 trillion, up from $1.3 trillion in 2009. The fastest-growing region throughout the forecast period is Latin America growing at 8.8 per cent compound annual rate during the next five years to $77 billion in 2014.

Asia Pacific is next at 6.4 per cent CAR through to 2014 to US$475 billion. Europe, Middle East and Africa (EMEA) follows at 4.6 per cent to US$581 billion in 2014. The largest, but slowest growing market is North America growing at 3.9 per cent CAR taking it from $460 billion in 2009 to $558 billion in 2014.

51% Mobile Video Growth Since 2009

Nielsen's latest "Three Screen Report" shows 51 percent growth of video watching on mobile phones, with a perhaps-surprising skew of demographics.

About 55 percent of the mobile video audience is aged 25 to 49. Also, the number of people with multi-tasking behavior, where users "watch" TV while using their PCs, was down in March 2010, though the length of time spent was up about 10 percent for people who did multi-task.

More than half of U.S. TV households now have a high-definition television and receive high-definition signals, while HDTV penetration grew 189 percent between the first quarter of 2008 and the first quarter of 2010.

More than a third of homes have a digital video recorder, up 51percent over the last two years.

About 64 percent of U.S. homes now use broadband Internet access while nearly a quarter of households (up 38%
year-over-year) have smartphones. The former trend means more uses can stream or download Internet video, while the latter trend means more place-shifting behavior, as well as some amount of incremental video consumption.

The amount of time spent watching television is still increasing. U.S. viewers watched two more hours of
TV per month in the first quarter of 2010 than in the first quarter of  2009.

The average time spent simultaneously using TV and Internet in the home also grew 9.8 percent, to 3 hours and 41 minutes per month, though the number of people doing so declined.

The number of people who are timeshifting has grown 18 percent since last year to 94 million, with the
average user now timeshifting 9 hours and 36 minutes per month.

The mobile video audience grew 51.2 percnet  year over year, surpassing 20 million users for the first time.

Beyond the TV, technology is helping drive video use on the “second” and “third” screens. The proliferation of broadband access is bolstering online video, creating an alternative mass outlet for distributing television content and “timeshifting” long-form TV.

Similarly, the increased popularity of smartphones has created yet another opportunity for incremental viewing, and Nielsen logically expects smartphone video viewing to keep growing. On top of that are new devices such as tablet PCs that also are expected to increase the amount of mobile video viewing.

Content Owners Sour on Ad-Supported Online Video

Content owners seem to be concluding there is no good way to put professional content online and earn a reasonable return based exclusively on advertising. That means more exploration of pay walls, subscription services and ways to tie online consumption to other for-fee services, such as cable TV subscriptions.

"Online pennies compared to network dollars" is one way of looking at the problem. Hulu, for example, seems to be pulling in about $100 million and says it now is profitable, but that's a lot less than its owners had been expecting.

Some products apparently can be monetized and provided to end users for no incremental cost. But it is starting to look as though professionally-created video, with the possible exception of some online video provided as part of existing cable TV subscriptions, for example, is not one of those types of products.

Video Seen as Key for iPad

About 77 percent of 200 senior marketing executives believe that developing a video strategy for the iPad is important to their businesses' success, says KIT Digital, which took the non-scientific study during a webinar on the iPad.

The survey also asked attendees if their businesses currently have a mobile solution for other devices. About 38 percent of respondents say they do,  while 43 percent say they are currently working on developing a mobile solution.

Overall, however, 62 percent of respondents do not currently have a mobile video solution.

When asked if they were prepared to take advantage of the iPad's video capabilities, 21 percent of businesses responded that they are, while 48 percent) responded that it is an area "currently being worked on."

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How Important is AT&T's U-Verse?

AT&T books something on the order of $124 billion a year worth of revenue. In the fourth quarter of 2009, AT&T booked U-verse revenues representing an annualized $3 billion. Some will note that this represents about three percent of AT&T's annual revenues.

By way of contrast, wireless already contributes about $56 billion annually. For the quarter, wireless revenues were $12.6 billion and wireless data was about $3.9 billion.

A rational observer might note that U-verse, AT&T's broadband and TV services effort, represents less revenue annually than mobile data does in one quarter. One might also argue that U-verse is not a revenue contributor that really "moves the needle" in terms of overall AT&T revenue performance.

One might also infer that a rational AT&T executive would not spend nearly the time on fiber-to-customer services that he or she would spend on wireless services, given the relatively small contribution U-verse can make to the overall bottom line, even if such broadband services represent the future of the fixed access business.

On the other hand, U-verse services have a much-higher growth profile, growing at about a 32-percent rate in the fourth quarter, where mobile revenues grew at about a nine-percent rate. Wireless data is growing at about a 26-percent rate.

Still, a rational executive might conclude that the gross revenue implications of high wireless data growth rates are vastly more signficant than equally-high growth rates for U-verse broadband services.

Some U-verse growth cannibalizes digital subscriber line revenue. And though video services have room to continue growing, that revenue source is fundamentally bounded by the total size of the U.S. multi-channel video business, where AT&T essentially takes existing revenue and market share away from cable competitors.

The wireline data business essentially can aim to grow to nearly 100 percent of the existing base of AT&T's existing huge installed base of wireless voice customers. AT&T has more than 85 million mobile voice customers.

The entire U.S. cable customer base is about 62.6 million accounts, and AT&T does not have a universal U.S. footprint. AT&T ultimately might cover 30 million U.S. homes out of 115 million total with its U-verse network.

If AT&T often appears to be a wireless company first and foremost, there is a good reason.

Despite Shocking Unemployment, Consumer Demand for Communications Holds Up

There's a sobering statistic in the latest research from Centris about consumer spending on communications and video service consumption: 27 percent of households reporting at least one member who lost their job in the last six months.

Most of the other findings seem consistent with other surveys taken over the last two years, though. The issue now is whether recession-induced behaviors will change as we exit the recession.

About eight percent of U.S. households said they were likely to cancel their Pay TV service in the third quarter of 2009, unchanged from the second quarter of 2009. Keep in mind that a typical churn rate for video services is about two percent a month, so those findings are relatively consistent with typical disconnect plans, and most churners simply sign up with alternate providers.

Some 18 percent of households said they were likely to cancel their home phone service and replace it with a currently-used cell phone. That is an underlying trend that might have accelerated during the recession, but was in place already.

Fully 75 percent of respondents said they would not likely downgrade their Internet access service. Virtually all other studies show high resistance to cutting back, or cutting off, Internet access services.

Nearly half of all households have contacted their current TV service providers shopping for discounts and lower-priced packages, though.

If past patterns show themselves, consumers should start spending more on enhanced services of all sorts, including premium video entertainment and mobile services, as the economic recovery takes hold. The wild card are services such as wired voice, which have been under pressure for other reasons unrelated directly to the recession.

AT&T, Verizon Will Gain Video Share in 2010

AT&T and Verizon are slowly gaining share in the U.S. multi-channel video market, while satellite providers DirecTV and Dish Network are holding their own, with Comcast and Time Warner Cable under a bit of pressure, but possibly facing more erosion over the next year, new surveys by ChangeWave Research suggest.

A key factor is simply that AT&T and Verizon now are able to market video services to millions more customers every year as they build out their new networks. Given a choice, some customers will exercise that choice, and switch from a current provider to one of the telco-provided services.

To the extent that customer satisfaction has a direct effect on churn behavior, Verizon, AT&T and DirecTV also stand to benefit, as their customer satisfaction ratings are at least three times higher than those of Comcast and Time Warner Cable, according to a recent Changewave Research survey of nearly 3,000 end users.

Still, market share changes relatively slowly in the video entertainment market. When asked whether they planned to switch TV providers in the next six months, about 12 percent reported they’ll be switching.

That works out to about two percent of the customer base a month, a figure quite consistent with what video operators have seen in recent years. But users rarely behave precisely as they say they will. One might expect churn to wind up being less than two percent a month, but more than one percent a month.

Also, service providers recently have found churn levels lighter than usual, in part because of slower housing starts, in part because of “save” offers made when customers call to disconnect, in part because bundles save customers money.

But prices seem to have very-high importance. According to the Changewave survey, price is the reason half of the “switchers” plan to make a change. Only about 10 percent indicated they would switch to get a bundle.

If price drives half the changes, rather than some other service attribute, many users who plan to defect will wind up staying because of a “save” offer that addresses the price objection.

Market share changes over the last year show just how stubbornly service providers are fighting to prevent churn in a saturated market that mostly is a zero-sum game.

For the U.S. market as a whole, cable TV operators retain dominant market share of 65 percent while satellite providers have 25 percent market share. Telcos now have 11 percent market share.

Comcast, with 23 percent share, slipped about one percentage point over the last year.
Time Warner Cable, with 11 percent share, gained one market share point over the same period.

DirecTV, with 13 percent market share, was unchanged over the year. Dish Network, with nine percent share, lost one share point over the last year.

Verizon’s FiOS has five percent share of the national market, while AT&T U-verse has three percent of the national market.

About 54 percent of the Changewave respondents who say they intend to switch providers say they will choose a fiber-optic service, an eight-point increase in three months.

Verizon FiOS TV remains the top provider that switchers plan to move to in the next six months. But AT&T’s U-verse service has jumped seven percentage points since Changewave’s March survey and is currently showing the most momentum among providers.

By way of comparison, just four percent of switchers saying they’ll sign up with Comcast and one percent say they’ll buy from Time Warner Cable.

Changewave researchers think cable and satellite providers will, for these reasons, face headwinds as the telcos gear up.

Fiber TV providers boast a big lead when it comes to customer satisfaction levels. Some 38 percent of subscribers say they are “very satisfied.”  About 27 percent of satellite subscribers say they are “very satisfied.”

About 13 percent of cable subscribers say they are very satisfied. So satellite subscribers are twice as satisfied as cable customers while fiber TV customers are three times as satisfied as cable customers.

The difference is even more evident at the individual company level, where Verizon has the most satisfied customers. About 47 percent of Verizon FiOS TV customers say they are very satisfied, while 39 percent of AT&T’s customers say they are very satisfied.

Some 34 percent of DirecTV customers say they are very satisfied. Just 11 percent of Comcast and Time Warner Cable customers say they are very satisfied.

Will Hulu be a For-Fee Service in 2010?

It looks like much Hulu content, especially network TV fare, will move to "for-fee" status sometime in 2010.  Hulu, owned by News Corp, NBC Universal and Walt Disney Company, is quite popular, attracting more than 300 million views in the month of February 2009, but ad revenues have been disappointing.

 “It’s time to start getting paid for broadcast content online,” says News Corp. Deputy Chairman Chase Carey.

“We’re exchanging analog dollars for digital dimes,” and that simply cannot continue, Carey says. “I think a free model is a very difficult way to capture the value of our content."

"I think what we need to do is deliver that content to consumers in a way where they will appreciate the value,” Carey adds. “Hulu concurs with that, it needs to evolve to have a meaningful subscription model as part of its business.”

Precisely what content will be "behind a pay wall" is not yet clear. Hulu is not likely to charge fees for all content on its site, but what it intends to do is not yet clear.

The planned move illustrates the continuing problem virtually all content providers and distrbutors are having with IP-delivered content: gross revenue in legacy channels is not being matched in digital channels.

Verizon Introduces Quad Play Bundles

Verizon customers in Northeast and Mid-Atlantic markets now can buy quadruple-play packages of wireless, TV, Internet access and home phone service in configurations costing as little as $135 a month with a one-year contract, for FiOS locations. Customers served by digital subscriber line service can get packages as low as $125 a month.

The basic Verizon quad-play FiOS bundle consists of the national Verizon Wireless calling plan of 450 minutes, "Freedom Essentials" voice service, FiOS Internet service with 15 Mbps downstream, 5 Mbps upstream connection speeds and FiOS TV "Essentials" service.

For customers served by Verizon's copper network, the lead quad-play bundle consists of the national Verizon Wireless calling plan of 450 minutes, a "Freedom Essentials" calling plan, broadband access with downstream connection of up to 3 Mbps and the DirectTV Plus DVR package.  A one-year Verizon commitment and a two-year DirectTV commitment with hardware lease are required with these bundles.

With four services all on one bill, qualifying quad-play customers will save from $59 to $179 a  year, depending upon which bundle they order.

New customers who sign up by Jan. 16, 2010 for FiOS quad-play or triple-play bundles that include broadband and TV also will receive a $150 Visa prepaid card. New customers who subscribe to quad-play or triple-play bundles that include Verizon Freedom Essentials, Verizon broadband access with an up-to-3 Mbps or 7 Mbps speed, and DIRECTV service will receive three months of free broadband access service.

Blu-Ray Sales Double, Packaged Media Not Dead?

A new study from Adams Media Research shows that sales of Blu-ray discs in the first quarter of 2009 nearly doubled compared to the same period a year ago, rising to nearly 9 million from 4.8 million in the first quarter of 2008.

Netflix also seems to be growing, and is expected to have 11.2 million subscribers by the end of 2009, after hitting the 10-million subscriber mark for the first time in February 2009.

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AT&T Reports Ap 22: What to Look For

AT&T reports first quarter results on April 22. I suspect most of us will be watching for any weakness in wireless net additions or average revenue per user. Everybody expects residential voice lines to decline, so the issue there might be a slowing of the rate of loss. Business customer revenues likely will be considered a success if growth essentially is flat.

A consumer landline loss in the 10 to 12 percent range is probably to be expected, while enterprise segment revenue likely will be off a couple to several points. None of that would be unexpected.

Video entertainment subscribers should grow, but will not likely have a material effect. Broadband net additions will be less robust than in the first quarter of 2008.

Canadians Heavy Online Video Consumers

In February 2009 21 million Canadians viewed more than 3.1 billion videos online, says comScore. The average Canadian online video viewer spent 10 hours viewing videos in February, up 53 percent from their average viewing time last year.

Unbundling Price Impact Unclear

The American Cable Association, which represents 1100 small, independent cable operators, has called for unbundling of cable channels, though the large cable operators and programmers oppose such rules. On the face of it, unbundling seems to offer an antidote to higher retail prices.

The thinking is that allowing users to pay just for what they want will drive lower prices. Oddly enough, it probably wouldn't. Once consumers start toting up the costs of discrete channels, and assuming most people have seven favorites, costs might be higher than what they are paying to receive lots of channels they don't watch.

Advertising is the reason. When cable channels are carried on the most-popular "expanded basic" tiers, they have a larger number of eyeballs to sell advertising against. Take away that access and advertising becomes a much-smaller revenue possibility, which then means programmers will raise their rates for carriage. So prices go up.

To be sure, smaller video providers do have to pay higher wholesale rates to get program access, but programmers counter that volume discounts account for the higher wholesale costs.

Smaller operators also object to "tying" policies that require carriage of lesser-viewed channels to get access to the most-popular, "must have" channels. The policy obviously is helpful to programmers, as they gain shelf space for niche channels.

Supporters of tying policies say program diversity clearly will suffer if tying policies aren't allowed. There are elements of truth to that claim. Lesser-viewed channels might be forced to on-demand distribution, which will reduce potential revenues, again compelling those channels to raise prices.

Distributors don't like tying policies since scarce shelf space gets eaten up by channels with low viewership.

Sometimes the obvious solutions actually produce results counter to what people think.

54% of U.S. Cable Operators Face Telco Video Competition

Fifty-four percent of the cable systems surveyed by In-Stat say they face a telephone company that already is offering video service in their cable TV service area, In-Stat says. Oddly enough, though rural areas often are considered to be service backwaters, lagging urban and suburban areas in broadband access, for example, rural areas often are places where telcos have moved early to offer entertainment video services.

Historically, rural telcos have been licensed cable operators as well. But some telcos that aren't wired competitors rely on satellite partnerships to get the job done. And there's a scale effect here. It takes a long time for a large telco to upgrade nearly any part of its infrastructure.

Small operators, simply because they are small, can upgrade much faster. Keep in mind that rural operators often have a few hundred to several thousand customers, not millions. The same sort of process works at the level of a country. A small country can upgrade its facilities much faster than a larger country, simply because of the differences in scale.

Deathstar!

Scott Moritz at TheStreet.com says at&t is gearing up to buy EchoStar fast. The logic is unassailable. at&t wants to get big in entertainment video. It will take a long time to get its entire network revamped to do so. Buying EchoStar puts at&t right into the big leagues with more than 13.6 million subscribers. Competitor DirecTV has about 16.2 million subscribers. So by acquiring EchoStar, at&t immediately vaults into a position where it serves more than 45 percent of the U.S. satellite-delivered multichannel TV market.

Cisco Predicts Exabyte Networks

Cisco's recent forecast of global IP bandwidth consumption suggests a 37 percent cumulative average growth rate between 2006 and 2011, or about five times the 2006 level. That's aggressive, but you might expect that. You might even have expected the prediction that consumer usage will outstrip business usage, though business dominates at the moment. You wouldn't be surprised at all to learn that video will drive overall global usage.

You wouldn't necessarily be surprised to learn that Cisco forecasts at least 60 percent of all traffic will be commercial video delivered in the form of walled garden services. And a significant percentage of the remaining 40 percent of IP bandwidth will be consumed by IP-based video applications.

The next network, in other words, will be a video network that also carries voice and non-real-time data.

That would be a stunning change from the originally envisioned view of the Internet. But I think we have to recognize at this point that virtually none of the key developments in communications technology have developed as industry insiders, public policy proponents, technologists or entrepreneurs had supposed.

To be sure, all of the diligent work on Session Initiation Protocol will have a significant payoff. But that didn't stop Skype by rocketing past SIP using a proprietary approach.

The Telecommunications Act of 1996 was supposed to lead to an explosion of innovation by dismantling restrictions on "who" could be a provider of Class 5 switch services. Instead, innovation came from the Web. Perhaps despite the Telecom Act, all sorts of innovation has happened.

VoIP was supposed to transform the nature of communications. Instead, mobility, instant messaging and social networks are doing so. One might arguably look to all manner of text communications as the disruptive communications development of the past several decades, not voice.

And then there's electronic numbering and voice peering. Perhaps these approaches still will have some dramatic impact on global voice communications prices and ability to circumvent the "public network." But it's starting to look as though ENUM might be a next generation to provide the signaling system 7 function. That's not to say it is unimportant: only to say it was not what many had intended or expected.

So far, it would seem that the most disruptive impact of the whole basket of new technologies has been to disrupt our ability to predict the future. We've been wrong more than right, as we always are. IP networks are not now, and never will be, as closed as the old public network was. Neither are IP networks going to be "open," any-to-any networks in the old manner, with no intelligence or policies operating in the core of the network.

Lots of things can, and should, be done "at the edge." But increasingly, lots of things cannot. The transition of the global IP network to video also means a shift to real time services (and we aren't even talking about the same process at work for voice and visual collaboration). That spells the end of the completely "dumb network."