Monday, February 16, 2026

Does AI Make Us Dumber?

Does use of artificial intelligence make us “dumber?” More to the point, are thinking skills diminished? And, if so, in what instances? And how much depends on human agency: how people decide to use tools?


To be sure, any augmentation of human capabilities by technology (muscles, thinking, sight, hearing, speech) has effects. When calculators became widespread, we can plausibly argue that arithmetic proficiency did decline. 


Perhaps use of GPS navigation has weakened our spatial reasoning and mental mapping abilities. 


Steam power and electrification didn't just replace muscle, they eliminated entire categories of physical labor and the skills associated with them. 


But then human effort climbed the abstraction ladder. Instead of knowing how to mill grain by hand, we developed agricultural engineering, supply chain logistics, and food safety science. The cognitive overhead that would have gone into mastering physical crafts redirected toward managing increasingly complex systems.


The issue is the possible impact, overall, on human agency. 


AI use for writing is arguably not only about output but thinking. When we work to articulate an argument, we also are thinking. The act of writing clarifies muddled ideas, reveals contradictions and forces precision, which is why, even prior to widespread use of AI for generating text, I used to argue that people who do not write well do not think well. 


Doing long division by hand doesn't help you understand mathematical concepts better than using a calculator. It's just slower. 


But working to structure an essay or find the right word arguably is learning, not just a means to it.


So human agency is what matters. If we simply outsource composition itself to AI, we lose a chance to develop thinking skills.


On the other hand, if AI handles the mechanical aspects (grammar, basic structure, first-draft generation) while humans focus on higher-order concerns, we might see a net gain (creative insight, critical thinking). 


Our use of personal computers, word processors and cloud-based information arguably led to:

  • Handwriting quality and knowledge of cursive declined

  • Ease of revision, but also

  • Less ability to compose “on the fly,” in real time, without extensive revision


Those might arguably be called “costs” or “losses” balanced by potential gains in other areas:

  • Easier or more-ambitious experimentation with style and form

  • Easier information access and depth

  • Less mechanical burden and more emphasis on ideas


The key variable was *how people used the tools*. Someone who uses a word processor as a crutch to avoid thinking hard about structure produces worse writing. Someone who uses it to create clearer structure or incorporate research more fluidly can produce better work.


With calculators, PCs, the internet and steam engines, humans retained clear agency over what problems to solve and how to tackle them. The tools executed human-designed solutions.


AI writing tools can obscure where human thinking ends and machine generation begins. If you prompt an AI to "write an essay arguing X," you've outsourced not just execution but problem identification, reasoning and idea development.


But AI also can be used to brainstorm, explore ideas or generate alternative ways of expressing a concept. That arguably is more analogous to how we used previous cognitive tools.


The "repurposing toward higher-level skills" argument might be highly contextual, depending on:

  • Whether lower-level skills are truly separable from higher-level ones (more true for calculation, less true for writing-as-thinking)

  • Whether users maintain agency over problem definition and solution strategy

  • Whether we repurpose time and effort to outcomes AI can't easily replicate. 


Human attention freed from drafting mechanics could enable deeper research, more creative synthesis, better audience analysis, and more ambitious intellectual projects.


In my own work, AI allows me to ask bigger questions, in areas outside my existing domain, that I wouldn’t have bothered to ask in the past, as the research would have taken too long. 


Which outcome prevails likely depends less on the technology itself and more on how we use it.


Can Ridesharing Companies Make a Shift to Robo-Taxis?

For ridesharing platforms, a shift from a peer-to-peer business model to robo-taxis or autonomous vehicles is a huge shift from asset-light to capital-intensive models. Which is probably why Uber, at the moment, is focusing on becoming a platform or operating system for robo-taxis, rather than primarily a fleet operator.  


Other firms (Waymo, Tesla, Amazon) might enter the market using a different model, owning and operating the fleets. 


But that is quite a different business model from the peer-to-peer ridesharing approach. 


Still, the capital-intensive “owned fleet” model has some potential advantages:

  • Higher long-run profit margins per mile if driver labor is removed (driver wages today are about 60% of Uber’s per‑mile cost base)

  • Ability to capture all trip economics

  • Improved utilization, as robotaxis can operate longer hours, with vehicles in service more consistently


But there always are issues:

  • Heavy capital investment (At $100,000 dollars per vehicle, a 1,000‑car fleet implies roughly 100100 million dollars of capital

  • Profit margins are highly sensitive to vehicle cost, utilization, and financing; per‑mile pricing must stay high enough to cover depreciation, charging, insurance, and remote support, especially under owned or leasing business models

  • New physical infrastructure (depot, charging, and service facilities) add fixed costs and operational complexity.

  • Regulatory and safety risk

  • Business risks when any provider does not own its full stack

  • Competition


Dimension

Advantages (robo-taxi model)

Challenges (robo-taxi model)

Labor costs and margins

Removal of driver wages (about 1.60 dollars of Uber’s 2.75 dollars per‑mile cost is driver pay), enabling higher potential operating margins if utilization is strong.[moomoo]​

Margins become very sensitive to AV cost, financing, maintenance, insurance, and remote operations; misjudging demand or pricing can quickly wipe out gains.findarticles+2

Revenue capture

Ability to keep close to 100% of trip revenue in an owned-fleet scenario, rather than paying a large share to human drivers or external owners.moomoo+1

Agency or leasing models remain more capital‑light but cap the platform’s margin because revenue must still be shared with vehicle owners or lessors.[moomoo]​

Capital intensity

Option to finance fleets and infrastructure against large, predictable cash flows, potentially locking in attractive returns over time.moomoo+1

Very high upfront and ongoing capex for vehicles (tens or hundreds of millions per city-scale fleet) and depots, reversing the asset‑light nature of current ride‑hail models.moomoo+1

Demand and network effects

Existing user bases (e.g., Uber’s 200M+ monthly users) provide instant demand, improving utilization and cost dilution for AV fleets.ainvest+1

If adoption lags or consumer trust drops in a given city, fixed fleets may be underutilized, depressing margins and delaying payback.ainvest+2

Operations and utilization

Robotaxis can run longer hours, focus on profitable corridors (airports, cross‑town routes), and generate more miles per vehicle, improving unit economics.findarticles+1

Require centralized fleet management, real-time remote assistance, and robust maintenance operations; any bottleneck can reduce uptime and increase per‑mile cost.findarticles+1

Strategy and competitiveness

Positions firms as core infrastructure for autonomous mobility, integrating partners like Waymo, WeRide, and others to broaden supply and defend market share.ainvest+3

Intense competition from dedicated AV players (Waymo, others) and from partners themselves; platforms risk being disintermediated or squeezed on margin.findarticles+2

Regulatory environment

Early movers that secure approvals and deploy at scale can lock in data, routes, and brand advantage in key cities.ainvest+2

Regulatory setbacks, accidents, or public pushback can halt deployments, strand capital, and create reputational damage.ainvest+2


The point is that it remains unclear how successful ridesharing companies might be at coping with a shift to robo-taxi alternatives. The sheer difference between an asset-light and asset-heavy business model illustrates the challenges. 

Saturday, February 14, 2026

It's Actually Too Early to See Widespread AI Productivity Gains

“Today, you don’t see AI in the employment data, productivity data or inflation data,” says Torsten Slok, Apollo chief economist. “Similarly, for the S&P 493, there are no signs of AI in profit margins or earnings expectations.”

That is not without precedent, as that lag in quantifiable productivity impact also happened when computing technology was applied at work. In fact, it often happens that productivity actually decelerates when a new computing or other general-purpose technology is introduced.

GPTs are "consequential" innovations that transform entire economies over time.


source: MIT

So that J curve is not unusual.

But it might also be the case that productivity measurements are outdated. “It’s possible that “current measures of productivity do not capture the increases in value added that these technologies promote,” the McKinsey co-authors state. “Many new benefits are incorporated into products or services free of charge, for example, which means productivity statistics do not capture them.”

The best available evidence suggests that mismeasurement might explain up to 10 percent of the overall slowdown in productivity growth, a relevant but comparatively small effect,” they say.

Here’s a look at expected productivity gains from artificial intelligence. The impact might be less than you would expect.

source: Apollo Academy

Looking only at generative AI, there are clear and significant time savings, for example.



source: Visual Capitalist



source: Visual Capitalist

But those gains do not translate linearly into firm productivity statistics. Among the reasons: the need to recraft whole business processes (requiring new skills, organizational structure changes).

“General purpose technologies (GPTs) such as AI enable and require significant complementary

investments, including co-invention of new processes, products, business models and human

Capital,” say the authors of a paper published by the National Bureau of Economic Research. “These complementary investments are often intangible and poorly measured in the national accounts, even when they create valuable assets for the firm.”

Also, keep in mind that “whole economy” productivity tends to improve at rates between one percent and two percent annually, over time.

source: St. Louis Federal Reserve

So some economists note that measurable or quantifiable gains from other earlier GPTs took decades, though the impact of computing technologies happened much faster.

source: JP Morgan.

As noted above, AI impact on tasks can be quite high, but the impact on gross national product or productivity will not track in linear fashion. Greater output with similar or less input leads to measurable productivity gains only when the output affects sales and other revenue-related activity.

Isolating the impact of particular inputs requires us to make judgments. When multiple processes change, how do we evaluate the individual impact? If sales channels, production processes, marketing, advertising, applied AI, headcount and customer demand all change at once, any estimation of input factor contribution is subjective.

But in any case, it actually is too early to document AI-driven productivity increases. And the actual impact could well be negative.

Thursday, February 12, 2026

Why the Walk for Peace Might Have Touched People

Many of us arguably have been pleasantly surprised by the emotional and apparently widespread reaction to the Walk for Peace: 20 monks and Aloka the “peace dog” on a 2,300-mile walk "to promote national healing, unity and compassion."


“The message of peace and mutual understanding conveyed through their conduct, marked by humility and calm presence, has resonated with many people they encountered along the route,” noted Tencho Gyatso, a niece of the Dalai Lama


But why?


Perhaps because the walk reflects:


 

source 


Observers of culture and religion might say a variety of possible reasons contributed. The symbolism of unity; sacrifice; the moral beauty; sacred moments that rupture everyday space; the sense of pilgrimage; unmet spiritual hunger; subconscious response to sages, ascetics and monks;  .    


“When a group of monks walks quietly, consistently, without obvious self-promotion, that creates what sociologists call moral coherence.” 


People sense integrity and authenticity. 


Religious anthropologists would note that costly signals generate credibility. Walking long distances, living simply, renouncing comfort are high-cost behaviors.


Even secular observers respect visible sacrifice. 


Many Americans and Westerners generally might be  exhausted by ideological warfare; a polarized culture and combative attitudes. 


The monks offered:

  • Spirituality without aggression

  • Conviction without outrage

  • Identity without hostility. 


They embodied transcendence without demanding that others take sides. 


Others might point to the power of ritual and aesthetics:

  • Robes

  • Chanting

  • Silence

  • Repetition

  • Rhythm.


Modern life has stripped away most shared ritual outside of sports and entertainment. When people encounter sacred ritual in public space, it disrupts routine perception. It feels “set apart.”

Even nonreligious observers often experience:

  • Calm

  • Curiosity

  • A sense of gravity


Religious scholars would say this is an encounter with the sacred breaking into ordinary space.


Monks project seriousness without heaviness. 


If the monks were male, some observers might note something subtle: they represented disciplined, gentle, self-controlled masculinity.


In a cultural moment confused about male identity, visible restraint combined with purpose is compelling. It signals strength under control, not dominance.


Emotion spreads socially. A group that radiates calm, smiles gently, and moves slowly literally lowers ambient anxiety.


The phrase “Walk for Peace” itself meets a primal desire. Peace is universally valued, even if defined differently.


Here’s a harder truth: people often project onto monks what they wish were true about themselves.

  • Greater discipline

  • Greater faith

  • Greater simplicity

  • Greater inner stillness


From a cultural perspective, the warm reception wasn’t random. It reflects:

  • Spiritual hunger

  • Fatigue with ideological conflict

  • Desire for authenticity

  • Attraction to embodied sacrifice

  • Longing for visible goodness


When a group appears to live what others only talk about, people respond.

If you zoom out, the reception says at least as much about the culture as it does about the monks.


A society doesn’t warmly embrace ascetics unless it senses it’s missing something.


Does AI Make Us Dumber?

Does use of artificial intelligence make us “dumber?” More to the point, are thinking skills diminished? And, if so, in what instances? And...