Thursday, October 29, 2026

Are Americans 50% to 70% Less Social Than They Used to Be?

Social isolation seems to be a growing problem, a study by DDB Needham suggests. Between 1975 and 1998, the share of Americans who gave or attended a monthly dinner party declined by half, says DDB Needham as part of its Life Style survey. 


Covid appears to have caused some changes in U.S. social behavior. But many of those changes predate the Covid pandemic.


“The share of Americans who say they host friends or family at their home at least monthly has fallen from 42 percent in 1975 to 12 percent in 2026, a 70 percent collapse in a half-century,” according to Derek Thompson, a Substack contributor. 


Another study suggests that, since 2003 (and up to 2024), the time Americans spend with friends has declined more than 50 percent.


source: American Sociological Association


“Americans have not replaced one form of interaction with another; they have reduced social interaction across the board,” the study authors say. “These findings point to a temporal reorganization of social life marked by the disappearance of the ‘night out.’” 


The U.S. Surgeon General calls this a crisis of loneliness. 


As to “why” this is happening, Bureau of Labor Statistics might well suggest that competition from television, digital entertainment and online communication are drivers of the change, at least in substantial part. 


Simply, staying home has become a more attractive alternative to going out because of streaming, gaming, social media, and online communication. 


And if you have tried to clear calendars for any social event, you know how busy people are, and how many other activities make synchronized face-to-face activities more difficult than once appeared to be the case. 


And some might also note that, as is the case with social media in general, the level of “comparison” in any part of human experience seems to have heightened fears of inadequacy. 


source: Derek Thompson 


In fact, there likely are multiple forces at work that make “staying home” a reasonable choice, compared to going out or entertaining others at home. 


Explanation

Evidence researchers would look for

Digital substitution

Whether increased individual screen time coincides with reduced face-to-face interaction, and whether the two changes are causally related

Work and time pressure

Whether people with irregular schedules, long commutes, or intensive caregiving responsibilities socialize less

Financial pressures

Whether entertaining declines more among households facing higher housing, food, or transportation costs

Geographic separation

Whether distance between friends and relatives predicts fewer visits and gatherings

Institutional decline

Whether loss of church, club, or civic participation predicts weaker friendship networks

COVID-19 habit changes

Whether people whose activities were interrupted returned less often than otherwise similar people whose routines remained intact

Changing preferences

Whether attitudes toward privacy, leisure, and social obligations changed before or after social activity declined


So we might be witnessing an accumulation of several different trends: more attractive solitary entertainment, fragmented schedules, harder-to-coordinate friendships, more demanding expectations for hosting and fewer institutions that routinely bring people together.

source: Data for Progress 


On the other hand, correlation is not necessarily causation. People choosing solitude is one thing;  becoming isolated quite another. 


For lots of reasons, people might genuinely prefer more time alone, as a respite from the rigors of dealing with daily life. 


In other cases social activity might be preferred, but is more difficult to arrange, especially as friends and relatives move about, geographically. 

source: Epoch Times


Either way, many would find the changes unhealthy or unhelpful. 


Monday, October 26, 2026

AI Impact on Revenue, Profits Strongest in IT

A new study by Torsten Slok, partner and chief economist at Apollo Global Management, finds evidence of artificial intelligence financial benefits in the information technology industry, but not elsewhere. “Revenue per worker is rising for the Mag 7 but is flat for the S&P 493,” he says. “Profit margins are rising for the Mag 7 but are flat for the S&P 493” as well. 


source: Apollo


 

source: Apollo


That might fuel concern that AI overinvestment is occurring. On the other hand, it seems also the case that AI investment is highly concentrated in relatively few IT firms. In other words, AI actually is not being deployed at scale outside IT. 


source: Apollo


So observers can take their pick of explanations: either AI is not generally producing measurable results or AI is not yet producing results because few firms outside IT have implemented at scale. 


At a high level, it also is likely that standard statistics miss some meaningful AI-related benefits. In other words, value is created, but not in ways that show up immediately, in every firm or industry, in the form of gross domestic product and productivity growth.


Type of benefit or measurement problem

Example involving AI

What conventional statistics may miss

Free or inexpensive services

A person uses a free chatbot instead of paying for tutoring, research, or basic professional advice.

Consumer value beyond the price paid.

Quality improvement

AI helps a physician explain a diagnosis more clearly or helps a lawyer produce a better analysis.

Better output when the number of services and their recorded prices barely change.

Time savings

A worker completes research in 20 minutes instead of two hours.

The value of saved time if it doesn't translate into recorded production, earnings, or leisure-related output.

New capabilities

A small business gains access to analytical capabilities previously affordable only to large firms.

New economic opportunities that have not yet generated recorded sales.

Intangible investment

A company spends months reorganizing workflows, developing proprietary data, and training employees.

Some of the investment and the resulting organizational capital.

Innovation spillovers

AI accelerates product development, scientific research, or software creation.

Future benefits that have not yet become market transactions or measurable output.

Unpaid or household activity

A consumer uses AI to plan a trip, learn a language, or manage household tasks.

Some of the resulting value because much household production lies outside GDP.


Measurement is itself a problem. The OECD, for example,  identifies intangible investment, cloud-computing accounting, and improvements in the quality and scope of services as important measurement challenges.


Also, value can be produced in economic welfare without showing up in GDP statistics. Such has been the case for many internet-supplied “no extra cost” services used by consumers, for example.


Economists call the difference between what a consumer would be willing to pay and what the consumer actually pays consumer surplus. So a2025 paper by Erik Brynjolfsson and coauthors, GDP-B: Accounting for the Value of New and Free Goods, develops an alternative approach to capturing benefits from free and new goods that standard GDP measures poorly. 


A 2026 Stanford Digital Economy Lab study, What Is Generative AI Worth?, used surveys and incentive-compatible choice experiments to estimate the value U.S. consumers place on access to generative AI tools. Its estimated aggregate consumer surplus rose from $116 billion in 2025 to $172 billion in 2026.


That is unlikely to satisfy skeptics insistent on visible AI impact on firm results. The International Labour Organization's May 2026 research brief, The Aggregation Paradox of AI , finds that strong task-level gains have not yet translated consistently into measurable gains at the firm, sector, or macroeconomic levels. Uneven adoption, workflow constraints, and the cost of organizational change help explain the gap. 


AI might produce large benefits for consumers and workers while capturing relatively little revenue for the companies providing it, as the Apollo analysis suggests is presently the case. 


Or, productivity gains might accrue primarily to a small number of firms, with limited diffusion to the rest of the economy, as the Apollo study also suggests. 


The absence of an immediate productivity boom is not strong evidence that AI is failing, or will fail. Past historical evidence suggests an important new technology takes some time to show benefits. 


But the existence of a historical productivity lag is not strong evidence that a productivity boom is inevitable, either.


Still, a delay in measured economic or firm benefits is not at all unusual. Past innovations such as steam power, electricity,  information technology and the internet have taken some time to generate clear economic value, because:

  • Complementary investments in organizational processes, software, training, and new business models must be made

  • Benefits may initially be concentrated in particular tasks, firms, and industries

  • Some gains, particularly in consumer welfare and intangible assets, are imperfectly captured by conventional statistics.


Financial observers will still remain skeptical. But, as a historical matter, important new general-purpose technologies have almost-always, perhaps always, experienced a lag time between introduction and impact. AI is showing the same pattern. 


Saturday, October 24, 2026

How Unethical are Dynamic or Personalized Pricing Practices?

Dynamic and personalized pricing of retail consumer goods raises some ethical questions, but arguably mostly amplifies the already-existing issues. 

Neither practice is new. Consumers encounter variable prices in airline fares, hotel rooms, ride-hailing, event tickets, gasoline, online promotions; in  loyalty programs, coupons, clearance pricing, and targeted offers. 


What AI changes is the speed, granularity, and data intensity of pricing decisions.


So dynamic pricing is a scaled-up version of familiar supply-and-demand pricing. Airlines raise fares as seats fill. A  retailer may discount excess inventory. 


Likewise, personalized pricing extends familiar couponing and loyalty discounts into potentially individualized prices. The issue is whether this is “fair.” And it is fair to note that personalized pricing raises the most issues. 


Supporters argue that AI pricing can improve matching between prices, demand, and consumer circumstances, such as:

  • Lower prices for price-sensitive shoppers (personalized pricing)

  • Better inventory and availability (less waste)

  • More relevant offers

  • Convenience and responsiveness, potentially giving consumers better deals during off-peak periods or when demand is low.


Critics of personalized pricing Critics focus on opacity, exploitation and the possibility that AI turns ordinary shopping data into a tool for extracting more from each customer. Issues include:

  • Loss of price transparency: A listed price may no longer mean “the price everyone sees,” but rather an algorithmic estimate of what a particular shopper will accept.

  • Privacy and surveillance

  • Discrimination and proxy harms, such as systematically higher prices for vulnerable groups or neighborhoods.

  • Exploiting urgency or hardship (higher hotel rates when the algorithm predicts funeral or other non-discretionary travel)

  • Harder comparison shopping

  • Algorithmic coordination risk (across the board price increases by all models without any explicit human agreement, raising competition-policy issues. 


Both sets of arguments are logical. There could be benefits or costs for consumers, depending on how the pricing algorithms are used. 


Practice

More defensible if…

More troubling if…

Dynamic pricing

Rules are understandable, prices reflect real scarcity or cost, and changes are not designed to exploit panic

Prices surge opportunistically during emergencies or change unpredictably to pressure quick purchases

Personalized pricing

It delivers clear, disclosed discounts and consumers can opt out or understand the basis

It silently raises an individual’s price using inferred willingness to pay or sensitive proxies


The important question is not simply whether prices differ. It is who benefits, who loses, and whether the practice expands access or extracts surplus.


AI makes it increasingly feasible for a business to estimate the maximum price each individual customer is willing or able to pay, and then charge accordingly. 


That can be economically efficient in some circumstances, but it raises serious ethical questions about fairness, privacy and the exercise of market power. 


The central issue is that personalized pricing can shift value from consumers to sellers without necessarily creating any additional value for society.


The challenge is that price discrimination is not always exploitation. In some industries, such as passenger airline travel, prices are set dynamically, based on demand. 


The important question is not simply whether prices differ. It is who benefits, who loses, and whether the practice expands access or extracts surplus.


Pricing approach

Example

Ethical assessment

Cost-based differentiation

Different delivery fees based on distance

Generally defensible when costs genuinely differ

Volume discounts

Lower unit prices for larger purchases

Often defensible, although they may disadvantage low-income customers who cannot buy in bulk

Group-based discounts

Student, senior, or low-income fares

Can improve access and equity

Demand-based pricing

Higher hotel rates during a major event

Often defensible if transparent and not exploitative

Individualized discounts

AI identifies a shopper likely to abandon a cart and offers a discount

Can benefit consumers, although it may disadvantage loyal customers who do not receive the offer

Individualized price increases

AI predicts a shopper will pay more and raises their price

Ethically questionable, especially without disclosure or meaningful alternatives

Vulnerability-based pricing

A model predicts desperation or urgency and charges a premium

Very ethically difficult to justify

Discriminatory pricing

An algorithm systematically charges a protected group more without a legitimate basis


Potentially unlawful as well as unethical


Consider a product that “costs” $40. Assume a price-sensitive customer is willing to pay as much as $55, but is offered the product for $50. The seller makes $10 on that transaction. 


Another customer (not price sensitive) is offered the product at $90, and is willing to pay up to $100. The seller's gross margin for that sale is $50. 


So personalized pricing nets the seller $60 in gross profit. 

Alternatively, assume the seller uses an advertised rate of $90. The first customer would not buy, while the second does. The seller makes $40 in gross profit. 

If the seller charged everyone $50, both would buy, but the seller makes $20 in gross profit.


Personalized pricing might permit both customers to buy at different prices, potentially increasing total output and seller revenue. But a seller capable of extracting nearly every customer's maximum willingness to pay can capture much of the surplus itself.


The point is that  greater economic efficiency does not automatically imply greater fairness, or benefit for all consumers.


Potential consumers might be harmed in other ways. Common market prices set by each seller enable comparison shopping by potential consumers. 


If every customer receives a different price, several things become harder:

  • Comparison shopping itself

  • Collective bargaining by consumers

  • Market transparency

  • Competition could suffer, as competitors may have less incentive to lower prices broadly

  • Loss of trust if consumers see such practices as efforts to exploit their personal circumstances.


The paradox is that AI can make prices more individually efficient while making markets less transparent and potentially less competitive. 


Safeguard

What it would accomplish

Price transparency

Disclose when individualized pricing is being used, especially for material price differences

Limits on sensitive data

Restrict using health, financial distress, precise location, or other sensitive information to set prices

Anti-discrimination testing

Test for unjustified price disparities across protected and vulnerable groups

Essential-service protections

Restrict exploitation of emergencies or captive customers purchasing necessities

Meaningful competition

Make switching providers and comparing prices easier

Consumer recourse

Allow customers to challenge erroneous data or suspicious price differences

Auditable algorithms

Maintain records that permit regulators to examine pricing practices and their effects

Stable public prices

Require common, accessible baseline prices in selected markets while allowing clearly defined discounts


But transparency alone is not a sufficient protection.  A consumer who needs emergency transportation, for example, may have no practical choice even if the price calculation is fully disclosed.


Likewise, banning the use of explicit sensitive attributes may not prevent discrimination if an algorithm reconstructs those attributes from other information.


Perhaps the strongest ethical objection is not that AI enables price discrimination but the fact that AI enables one-sided, largely invisible exploitation of information asymmetry.


The seller knows more about the buyer's circumstances and limits than the buyer knows about the seller's pricing strategy.


Using AI to find customers who would benefit from a lower price is easier to justify than using it to identify customers who can be made to pay more. The former arguably expands access. The latter only increases profit margins for the seller. 


Are Americans 50% to 70% Less Social Than They Used to Be?

Social isolation seems to be a growing problem, a study by DDB Needham suggests. Between 1975 and 1998, the share of Americans who gave or a...