Wednesday, September 9, 2026

ChatGPT and Jobs: Correlation is Nor Causation

One might argue that, according to Bureau of Labor Statistics data, information sector jobs and ChatGPT launch are correlated.  


Which is to say, information sector jobs, which had been on an upswing since 2020, reversed course about the time ChatGPT was launched. 


One also might be quite tempted to suggest coding jobs were most affected. That might not be correct, though.

source: Econ Reporter


The BLS “information” sector includes:


In the graph below, reddish areas are the content industry category job losses. In blue are information sector losses. “Hollywood” seems to be the area where the most jobs were lost, but a clear majority of the attrition came in content-related industries. 

source: Seeking Alpha


Correlation is not necessarily causation. To be sure, slowdown in hiring seems to have occurred. Perhaps a number of changes in the economy are correlated. Many observers would agree that “over-hiring” happened after the Covid epidemic. Some amount of correction seems to have occurred. Higher interest rates which discouraged business startups or expansions could have played a role as well.


Digital initiatives might be allowing firms to restructure their business processes in ways that reduce labor demand, as well. And demographic change might be an issue as well. 


  

Possible cause

Timing

Industries most affected

How it could reduce employment

Post-COVID normalization

2022 onward

Leisure, retail, transportation, logistics, professional services

Companies that massively expanded hiring in 2020–22 no longer needed the same workforce

Fed tightening / high interest rates

2022 onward

Housing, construction, startups, finance, tech, business services

Higher cost of capital reduces investment, startups and expansion; companies become reluctant to hire

Tech-sector over-hiring in 2020–22

2022 onward

Software, internet, media, telecom

Firms unwound extraordinary pandemic hiring regardless of AI

Labor-market normalization

2022 onward

Economy-wide

Job openings fell from extraordinary 2021–22 levels; hiring slowed without mass layoffs

Temporary-help collapse

2022 onward

Staffing, business services

Temporary workers are often the first variable labor input cut when demand softens

Manufacturing/industrial cycle

2022 onward

Manufacturing, durable goods

Higher rates, inventories, weak goods demand and capital-cycle changes reduce labor demand

Retail restructuring

2022 onward

Retail

E-commerce, productivity, store rationalization and post-pandemic normalization reduce labor requirements

Telecom structural decline

Long-running

Telecommunications

Wireless/fiber consolidation, automation, declining legacy services and network efficiencies reduce headcount

Demographics

Increasingly important

Economy-wide

Baby Boomers retire; fewer workers are available, changing both hiring and measured employment growth

Immigration changes

Especially 2025–26

Construction, hospitality, agriculture, services

Changes labor supply as well as employers' ability to fill positions

AI/GenAI

2023 onward

Information, software, customer service, professional services

Some work can be automated or performed by fewer employees

Tariffs/trade/geopolitical shocks

2025–26 especially

Manufacturing, logistics, retail

Higher input costs and uncertainty discourage hiring


The point is that there are many potential correlations between job loss overall and trends in technology and the economy. Some of those, or the ensemble of trends, might be “causal.” 


But the point is that use of language models as the “cause” of job declines is too simplistic. There are lots of other potential explanations.


Tuesday, September 8, 2026

AI in Schools: Assessment is the Issue

Most of us would likely agree that younger students, in particular, need to master some cognitive skills and that artificial intelligence could impair such learning. In other words, “AI should not do the student's thinking.” 


But recent moves by some schools to ban use of generative AI in primary schools, whether temporary or permanently, are unlikely to stand the test of time, one might suggest. 


Schools arguably have good reasons to restrict AI use to the extent that they try to measure unaided learning. Most teachers are likely to agree that the purpose of any assessment method is to determine what the student knows, not what language models know. 


So cheating and a loss of foundational skills are key issues for schools. Tests and grades can lose their value as assessment tools if teachers cannot separate language model output from student proficiency. 


On the other hand, the fact that educators don't yet know how to redesign education around AI might not be a robust reason for banning AI use. Is that the learner’s problem or the instructor’s problem?


School system / jurisdiction

Policy

What is actually restricted?

Rationale

New York City Public Schools

2026–27 moratorium

Student-facing generative AI banned in grades 2K–8; limited approved use in grades 9–12

Developmental concerns, human interaction, avoiding outsourcing thinking; high schools receive AI literacy

Fairfax County, VA

2026 restrictions

Elementary students prohibited from generative AI; secondary students require specific authorization for specialized uses

"Human-centered" education, caution while formal policy is developed

Seattle Public Schools

Restricted/teacher-directed

AI permitted when teacher authorizes it; unauthorized AI use treated as academic dishonesty

Emphasis on student thinking, transparency and responsible use

Los Angeles Unified

Initially restricted, subsequently opened controlled access

In Dec. 2022 LAUSD temporarily restricted ChatGPT and other GenAI while developing safeguards; subsequently provided access for students 13+

Shift from outright prohibition toward safeguarded use

Fairfax County student devices

Technical blocking

General-purpose GenAI remains blocked on district-issued student devices even though personal-device use is governed by assignment rules

Security and control of school technology

New South Wales, Australia

Assessment restrictions

2026 reforms sharply restrict take-home HSC assessment because of AI concerns

Preserve authenticity of assessed work rather than attempting to ban AI everywhere

England

No blanket student ban

Schools choose their own rules; government recommends supervised, safeguarded student use

AI literacy plus safeguards rather than prohibition


Among the problems is that banning technology does not seem particularly effective, longer term. 


Study

Technology

Finding

Implication for AI bans

Allcott et al., NBER 2026

U.S. school cellphone bans, >43,000 schools

Lockable pouches substantially reduced phone use, but average test-score effects were close to zero; effects on well-being evolved over several years

A ban can change behavior without necessarily producing the hoped-for educational gains

Lichand et al., NBER 2026

Cellphone ban in Rio de Janeiro schools

Phone use fell and test scores increased about 0.06 SD

Restrictions can work when the technology genuinely interferes with learning

Figlio & Özek, NBER 2025

Florida cellphone bans

Short-term suspensions increased; disciplinary effects dissipated after the first year

Enforcement can generate costs of its own

Kessel et al., Sweden

Swedish secondary-school cellphone bans

Found no impact on student performance and could reject even small positive effects

Removing technology doesn't automatically improve learning

Rahali, Kidron & Livingstone, 2024

Rapid review of school smartphone bans

Meta-analysis found a statistically significant but modest overall effect (d=.162), larger for social well-being than academics

Benefits of bans are real but relatively limited

OECD/PISA 2022

School smartphone restrictions

In schools with bans, many students nevertheless reported using phones every day or several times a day

Formal prohibition does not equal behavioral prohibition

EdWeek Research Center, 2024

School cellphone enforcement

Students reported using smartwatches, alternate devices and other methods to circumvent restrictions

Students adapt around technological restrictions

SMART Schools study

UK school phone policies

Restrictive policies reduced phone/social-media use during school, but not overall weekday/weekend use or mental well-being

Restrictions often move behavior rather than eliminate it


Perhaps other bans, such as forbidding student access to smartphones during the school day can work, in a controlled setting, for some types of technology. But it remains far from clear that long-term impact is positive. 


Perhaps bans are good at reducing exposure to a technology inside a controlled environment. They are much less reliable at producing large improvements in educational outcomes. 


Also, “cheating” might not be a technological problem, but a human problem. Students cheated before ChatGPT. Calculators, phones, Google, Wikipedia, friends, answer sites and copied homework provide examples.


AI changes the cost and scale of cheating, but banning one particular tool doesn't necessarily eliminate the underlying incentives. 


The strongest argument for bans, though, is developmental sequencing. We believe students need to learn fundamentals first. That is why art or music students are schooled in classical fundamentals before they start exploring their own interpretations. 


For similar reasons, instructors of mathematics or writing are likely to continue emphasizing mastery of foundational concepts and forms. 


But practical bans will be difficult when AI is built into virtually all major technology platforms people use. 


The issue might be assessment methods more than “learning” methods, though. Probably everyone would agree that students need cognitive mastery of forms before outsourcing work to AI. The relevant issue might be that teachers do not yet have a good way of assessing such mastery when AI tools are available. 


It is one matter to “redesign assessment”methods. But some methods are sort of “brute force,” such as shifting to in-classroom writing rather than “take home” work. 


Redesigning assessment for online learning scenarios will be quite a bit harder, one would think. 


Policy

Short-term effectiveness

Long-term viability

Block ChatGPT on school Wi-Fi/devices

High

Low

Ban AI for particular assignments

High

High

Ban AI for young children

Potentially high

Quite plausible

Ban AI for all K–12 students

Moderate

Low

AI detectors as enforcement

Low–moderate

Very low

Require disclosure of AI use

Moderate

High

Teach AI literacy

Moderate initially

Very high

Redesign assessment around demonstrated competence

High

Very high

Allow AI but require students to explain/defend its output

Moderate–high

Very high

ChatGPT and Jobs: Correlation is Nor Causation

One might argue that, according to Bureau of Labor Statistics data, information sector jobs and ChatGPT launch are correlated.   Which is t...