Tuesday, August 18, 2026

Cognitive and Creative Implications of Language Model Use are a Bell Curve

It isn’t hard to encounter sentiment about the dangers of using artificial intelligence in education, almost always in the context of a potential diminishing of cognitive skills of some sort. 


I tend to have a different view, which is that people show a Bell curve (a normal distribution) of intelligence or cognitive capabilities. 


It follows that there would be a Bell Curve of ability to use language models in ways that enhance, rather than diminish, cognitive skills. 


That might be true even when there are other forms of “intelligence” beyond those measured by intelligence quotient tests such as:

  • Linguistic: Skill with words and language.

  • Logical-Mathematical: Skill with numbers and logic.

  • Musical: Skill with pitch, rhythm, and sound.

  • Bodily-Kinesthetic: Skill with body movement and control.

  • Visual-Spatial: Skill with visual spaces and pictures.

  • Interpersonal: Skill in understanding other people.

  • Intrapersonal: Skill in understanding yourself.

  • Naturalist: Skill in understanding nature and animals.

  • Existential: Skill in pondering deep questions about life.


In other words, AI can be either a cognitive substitute or a cognitive accelerator, depending on how it is used. And since human cognition and curiosity arguably also are a Bell Curve, some are almost naturally going to use it better than others. 


For example, one review examined 67 studies on critical thinking and use of ChatGPT found that ChatGPT supports cognitive development in some instances, while declines in creativity and critical thinking happened in other instances. 


A possibly-oversimplified view is that how much thinking a learner did before conducting research (asking questions) and after doing that research seemingly matters. 


When learners used ChatGPT for “cognitive offloading (replacing thinking), both creativity and critical thinking seemed to suffer. 


In other words, it is “how you use it” that matters. For example, if primarily used for summarization and writing (“Cliff Notes” or essay writing), critical thinking skills were not enhanced. 


If learners essentially substituted ChatGPT for their own thinking and questioning, cognitive skills arguably were not enhanced. 


AI use

What the learner does

Likely cognitive effect

Answer substitution

“Give me the answer.”

High risk of cognitive offloading

Summarization

“Summarize this chapter for me.”

Saves time, but may reduce comprehension/retention if it replaces reading

Explanation

“Explain this concept at three levels.”

Potentially strong learning benefit

Research exploration

“What are the major arguments about this subject?”

Potentially very large benefit; expands exploration

Question generation

“What questions should I be asking about this?”

Can stimulate inquiry

Socratic dialogue

“Challenge my interpretation.”

Can strengthen reasoning

Research criticism

“What evidence contradicts this argument?”

Strengthens evaluation

Simulation/debate

“Argue the opposite position.”

Strengthens perspective-taking and argumentation

Feedback

Learner produces work; AI critiques it

Potentially high-value learning

Independent retrieval → AI verification

Learner thinks first, AI checks second

Probably among the safest/highest-value uses


The point is that, in an earlier form, calculator use diminished the amount of arithmetic humans needed to perform. 


But such use can increase the amount and sophistication of mathematics they can do, provided they still understand the underlying mathematics.


Use of calculators did not automatically decrease math skills. Such use shifted the potential terrain. And there is arguably a Bell curve of ability, willingness and skill in doing so. 


In the same way, using language models poses some reduction of skills or effort:

  • memory retrieval

  • mental calculation

  • information search skills

  • initial formulation

  • sustained attention

  • epistemic vigilance

  • argument construction.


But that doesn't necessarily mean that overall intellectual capability falls. AI potentially creates new possibilities which might be grasped. Does it eliminate a cognitive activity or only a bottleneck to more valuable cognitive activities?


And much of the answer will depend on the learners themselves. 


Granted, much of my own work involves research. And it turns out that language models are very helpful for research.


When doing any sort of research with a historical component (what happened, when, by whom, with what results or patterns), an idealized pre-language-model process might look like:

  • search Google

  • search Wikipedia

  • find books and articles

  • search companies

  • follow references

  • discover competing interpretations

  • figure out terminology

  • search more

  • construct a mental map

  • begin asking other questions. 


Language models reduce the time required for the first eight activities, generally speaking, even when simpler questions, well within an existing domain, and not requiring all those steps, are tackled. 


So the research reached the latter two stages much faster. 


The caveat is that the ability to comprehend and recall is more important inside structured learning processes (“education”) where "learning" means the ability to recall a specific body of information. “There will be a test,” in other words. 


The ability to synthesize and extrapolate arguably is more important outside such structured learning situations (work, innovation, discovery). 


The implication is that different people are going to use language models, in formal education, in better or less good ways. No single set of guardrails or exhortations is going to change that. 


Much still relies, as it does almost everywhere in life, with the motivation and aptitude of the user.


Monday, August 17, 2026

What Will AI Do to Content Market Suppliers?

Critics of language model copyright protection often make the argument that such content production by artificial intelligence harms existing content market suppliers.


But some of us might note that this also is a trend and theme quite familiar to all digital content processes and their impact on existing content business models. One example is the impact of AI summaries on search traffic volume for content suppliers.  


Phenomenon / study

What is happening

Evidence of substitution / economic impact

Implication for profitability

Google AI Overviews / AI search

Search engines increasingly answer questions directly rather than simply providing links

Reuters Institute/Chartbeat data show Google organic-search traffic to 2,500+ sites fell 33% globally and 38% in the U.S. between Nov. 2024 and Nov. 2025. Publishers expect search traffic to fall another ~43% over three years. (reutersinstitute.politics.ox.ac.uk)

Negative. Less referral traffic means fewer ad impressions, subscriptions and affiliate conversions. Particularly damaging to publishers dependent on search.

Wikipedia + Google AI Overviews

AI summaries can satisfy the user's information need without a click

A 2026 causal study of 161,382 article-language pairs found Google AI Overview exposure reduced English-Wikipedia traffic by about 15%, with larger effects for topics where short answers are sufficient. (arXiv)

Strong evidence of actual content substitution, rather than merely correlation.

French publishers / Google AI summaries

Publishers argue AI-generated summaries are replacing visits to original articles

The French press association says regulator Arcom data indicate AI summaries have produced a 33–38% decline in traffic to media sites. The association is seeking competition action and compensation. (Reuters)

Potentially serious threat to advertising-supported journalism; also creates pressure for AI licensing revenue.

LLMs as news destinations

Consumers increasingly obtain news directly from chatbots

Reuters Institute reports that weekly generative-AI use in six markets rose from 18% to 34% between 2024 and 2025. Its 2026 research finds a growing, though still minority, use of chatbots for news. (reutersinstitute.politics.ox.ac.uk)

Potentially more important over time: AI moves from being a distribution intermediary to being the destination.

Publisher AI production

Publishers increasingly use AI for back-office automation, newsgathering, coding and content production

In the 2026 Reuters Institute survey, 97% of publishers regarded back-end AI automation as important; 82% cited newsgathering and 81% coding/product development. But only 44% said AI initiatives were showing promising results, versus 42% calling results limited. (reutersinstitute.politics.ox.ac.uk)

Positive cost effect, but so far not a demonstrated profitability windfall.

AI actually increasing publisher content volume?

One might expect near-zero-cost generation to create enormous increases in articles

A study of large publishers finds no evidence that publishers increased text volume following GenAI adoption. Instead they increased rich content, advertising and targeting technologies. (arXiv)

Important counterexample to the simple "AI = infinite content" thesis. Professional publishers may be recognizing that additional generic text has little economic value.

AI and publisher traffic

LLM bots consume publisher content while potentially sending fewer readers back

The same study finds a moderate decline in publisher traffic after August 2024. Interestingly, publishers that blocked GenAI bots subsequently experienced 23% lower total traffic and 14% lower real-user traffic than comparable publishers that did not block them. (arXiv)

Shows the relationship is complicated: AI can be both a threat and a discovery mechanism.

AI-assisted social-media creation

AI makes it much cheaper to create posts, comments and other social content

A controlled experiment with 680 U.S. participants found some AI tools increased engagement and content volume, but also reduced perceived quality/authenticity and generated negative spillovers in conversations. (PubMed)

Supply explosion is real, but more content does not necessarily mean more economic value.

AI-generated social posts

AI can produce content that competes directly with human-created material

A 2025 study found GPT-4-generated social-media posts could outperform human-written posts in engagement; another cross-platform study examines comparable performance on Facebook, Instagram and X. (ScienceDirect)

Potentially disruptive to the labor economics of content creation, especially routine marketing/PR content.

AI disclosure / authenticity

Consumers don't necessarily value AI-created material as much as human-created material

A 2026 study found labeling content as AI-generated or AI-enhanced reduced affective and behavioral engagement relative to human-created content, especially for emotional content. (DOI)

Creates a possible scarcity premium for human/original content as AI content becomes abundant.

AI use in newspapers

AI-generated material is already entering professional media

An audit of 186,000 articles from 1,500 U.S. newspapers estimated about 9% were partially or fully AI-generated in summer 2025. (arXiv)

Demonstrates that substitution of human content production is already occurring, particularly in smaller/local outlets.

AI licensing

Publishers are attempting to turn substitution into a new revenue stream

Reuters Institute found 36% of publishers expected licensing income from technology/AI companies to become significant. Brookings describes AI licensing as a new layer of the media economics historically dominated by search platforms. (reutersinstitute.politics.ox.ac.uk)

Could partially offset lost advertising/search revenue, but licensing revenue is not yet comparable to the scale of displaced traffic.

Premium vs. commodity content

AI has much greater ability to substitute for routine informational content than differentiated reporting

Reuters Institute finds subscription/membership-oriented publishers with strong direct traffic have a clearer path to profitability, while advertising-dependent publishers are much more worried about AI search. (reutersinstitute.politics.ox.ac.uk)

Suggests bifurcation: commodity information gets cheaper; original reporting, brands, personalities and communities become more valuable.


Much of the argument about regulating artificial intelligence training and output has to do with the efficiency with which computers work, compared to biological limitations humans have doing the same things.


That might strike some of us as an odd argument. Of course, the real issue is not about how humans or machines learn, or even how quickly they can produce original new work. 


The issue, as often is the case, is about the effect on markets for content. And that is what the authors of a new paper suggest is the case. 


source: Tuhin Chakrabarty, Xinyue Liu , Jane C. Ginsburg, Paramveer Dhillon 


Comparing best-selling books with no AI content to books with light AI content or wholly-AI produced on Amazon, the authors suggest the AI books are having an impact on non-AI book sales and revenues. 


 

source: Tuhin Chakrabarty, Xinyue Liu , Jane C. Ginsburg, Paramveer Dhillon 


When a human author reads hundreds of mystery novels, internalizes their mechanics, and writes a new mystery novel using those structural lessons, copyright law views this entirely as lawful inspiration and learning. 


Supporters of applying stricter copyright rules to AI model content typically are based on the argument that humans are relatively slow learners, while computers are fast. 


Just as a human author synthesizes everything they have ever read to draft a novel, an AI synthesizes the patterns learned from its training data to generate new text.


Critics essentially argue AI models should not receive the same level of protection because they are “too efficient,” which is a new argument in the copyright domain. 


If copyright law were applied with strict, absolute functional consistency, the legal outcomes for human and AI generation would look remarkably similar:

  • Process Equivalence: Both human brains and AI models consume existing works to extract abstract patterns, rules of grammar, and stylistic conventions.

  • Output Evaluation: If an AI generates a completely novel story that merely employs general tropes and stylistic patterns learned during training (without plagiarizing specific passages), a consistent legal framework would view it the same way it views a human-written work.


Proponents of AI model “freedom to create” argue that training is inherently transformative. The AI is not being trained to reproduce the books it reads; it is learning how language works. So that is fair use.


Critics argue AI should not be protected in the same way humans are because the machines are so much more efficient.


Dimension

Human Authors

AI Models

Legal Status of "Reading"

Lawful (cognitive processing falls outside copyright).

Contested (involves digital copying; subject to ongoing fair use litigation).

Legal Status of Output

Protected, provided it avoids literal copying or plagiarism.

Contested, with questions regarding authorship, originality, and market substitution.


The point is that AI-produced content will probably have a similar impact to existing content suppliers as we have seen with both digital and internet content markets. 


There will be some amount of disruption; severe disruption in at least some instances. 


Consider what happened to business-to-business content businesses such as specialized trade media. 


Historically, trade journals relied on a print-centric, monopoly-like model where niche B2B advertisers had virtually no other way to reach specialized professional audiences. But what happened was more than a shift from physical media to online and digital formats. 


Advertising budgets massively migrated away from print. In 1995, specialized print trade journals commanded nearly the entirety of B2B advertising budgets. 


By the late 2000s, digital channels achieved parity, and today, digital and online formats capture the vast majority of B2B marketing spend.


Year

Legacy Print Share (%)

Digital Online Share (%)

1995

98%

2%

2000

88%

12%

2005

65%

35%

2010

35%

65%

2015

15%

85%

2020

8%

92%

2026

4%

96%


AI-enabled changes might have a range of effects, some quite negative for legacy content providers but also some positive changes as well for others. 


Business/content type

Effect of AI content abundance

Likely long-term economics

Commodity news

Very high substitution

Worse

Weather, sports scores, financial quotes, basic facts

Very high substitution

Much worse

SEO articles / "10 best..." content

Very high substitution

Worse

Generic marketing copy

High substitution

Lower labor cost, potentially higher margins

Social-media posts

High substitution

More supply; declining value per post

Local routine journalism

High production substitution

Lower costs but potentially weaker differentiation

Original investigative journalism

Low direct substitution

Scarcer and potentially more valuable

Celebrity/personality content

Low-to-moderate

Human identity becomes an asset

Video/entertainment

Moderate initially

More content, but attention remains scarce

Strong media brands

Moderate substitution, strong defensive value

Potentially resilient

Communities / memberships

Low substitution

Potentially increasingly valuable

Proprietary data/research

Low substitution

Potentially more valuable

Human-authored expertise/authenticity

Potentially negative supply effect but positive scarcity effect

Could command a premium


Cognitive and Creative Implications of Language Model Use are a Bell Curve

It isn’t hard to encounter sentiment about the dangers of using artificial intelligence in education, almost always in the context of a pot...