We can't say yet, but there's bad news from the United Kingdom, where the "Retail Health Index" already shows business activity dropping, which if replicated for the entire U.K. economy, would trigger a formal recession condition. UK Retail is now firmly back in recession says Retail Think Tank
So far, the U.S. economy has not actually fallen for one full quarter, let along two, but it is growing at a historically weak level, compared to past recessions. And some already think the U.S. economy is headed for a double dip.
"Amid all the absurd posturing over raising the debt ceiling comes some real news—and it’s very bad," says the New Yorker. "According to new government figures, the economy has hardly grown at all in 2011."
"The recovery that began in early 2009 is now officially stalled," the New Yorker says. "Some economists will quibble, but I think it is fair to say that the dreaded double-dip recession is at hand," argues John Cassidy.
When healthy, the American economy grows at an annual rate of close to three per cent. The Commerce Department’s latest report on the gross domestic product shows that between April and June 2011, it expanded at an annual rate of 1.3 per cent, and between January and March it grew at an annual rate of just 0.4 per cent.
The first-quarter figure is particularly stunning. Previously, the Commerce Department had estimated growth in the period at 1.9 per cent. Some think there will be a similar downward revision to the second-quarter figures.
Read more here.
it may turn out that we’re already in one, according to a pair of economists at Moody's Capital Markets Research Group. Read more here.
U.K. retail executives expect the trend to continue in the third quarter. The most recent quarterly reports from a number of European telecom providers also could suggest economic softening.