Showing posts from May, 2015

Memory and Voice Costs Declined 3 Orders of Magnitude Since 1993?

The retail cost of memory, like the retail cost of texting, calling or messaging, is a fundamental reality for nearly any business or industry where product creation distribution and consumption has significant "information" content. 

The price of a product (a gigabyte of storage) falls from $9,327 to $2.48, a decline of three orders of magnitude over two decades. 

Nothing that dramatic has occurred for most carrier-provided voicecalls. From 1965 to 1985, for example, U.S. originated international call prices dropped by about half, or about one order of magnitude ($10 for a three-minute call to $5 for a three-minute call). 

Between 1993 and 2013, the cost of a mobile-initiated voice call in the U.S. market dropped about one order of magnitude. 

Of course, it is hard to compare carrier voice with the cost of Skype-to-Skype calls or instant messaging services, which might have "zero incremental cost." 

But it would not be hard to attribute a three ordes of magnitude effec…

Asia Pacific Mobile Devices Will Consume 2.2 GB per Device by 2019

In the Asia Pacific region, mobile data traffic will grow 10-fold from 2014 to 2019, a compound annual growth rate of 58 percent, according to the Cisco Mobile Visual Networking Index.

In 2014 there were 2.2 billion mobile users in 2014, representing 56 percent of Asia Pacific's population.

By 2019 there will be 2.8 billion mobile users representing 69 percent of Asia Pacific's population.

In Asia Pacific, mobile data traffic will reach an annual run rate of 114 Exabytes by 2019, up from 11.7 Exabytes in 2014, growing three times faster than Asia Pacific fixed IP traffic from 2014 to 2019.

In Asia Pacific, mobile data traffic will account for 17 percent of Asia Pacific fixed and mobile data traffic by 2019, up from four percent in 2014, while 53 percent of mobile connections will be “smart” connections by 2019, up from 24 percent in 2014.

In Asia Pacific, mobile traffic per mobile-connected end-user device will reach 2.2 GB per month by 2019, up from 273 megabytes per month in 2014…

Mobile Data Traffic Will Grow 10X from 2014 to 2019

In Indonesia, there were 155.1 million mobile users in 2014, representing 61 percent of Indonesia's population. By 2019 73 percent of Indonesia’s population, some 195.3 million people will be using mobile devices, according to the Cisco Mobile Visual Networking Index.
Perhaps significantly, mobile data traffic will grow an order of magnitude (10 times)  from 2014 to 2019, a compound annual growth rate of 59 percent.
Mobile data traffic will account for 41 percent of Indonesian data traffic by 2019, up from 17 percent  in 2014.
By 2019, 46 percent of mobile connections will be “smart,” up from 14 percent in 2014.
In Indonesia, mobile traffic per mobile-connected end-user device will reach 1.7 GB per month by 2019, up from 185 megabytes per month in 2014, a CAGR of 55 percent.

Will Google Project Loon Launch Internet Access Service in 2016?

Mesh networks might be a significant new factor in the Internet access business across much of the Global South.

By linking it “Project Loon” balloons together in a mesh network, where ground signals can be relayed directly between balloons, Google can now provide coverage for an entire region such as  West Africa using only about eight ground stations, according to Bloomberg.

In the past, Project Loon balloons used for delivering Internet access had to have a direct link to a mobile cell tower on the ground. Given Project Loon’s objective of providing service to “hard to reach areas” where such towers are in short supply, that was a constraint.

Now traffic can be relayed from balloon to balloon, allowing any single balloon to remain connected with any single cell tower 400 kilometers to 800 kilometers distant.

Other new contestants in the Internet access and transport business, including LeoSat, plan to use a mesh network as well, and for similar reasons, allowing a single uplink and d…

Zero Rating: Philippines and Pakistan Say "Yes," India Might Say "No"

The controversy over zero rating in India might also be affecting Google, in the sense of raising potential hostility neither Facebook nor Google wants to incur.
Google has a similar zero rating initiative called Google Free Zone that has been offered in a handful of countries like Kenya, Sri Lanka, Thailand and the Philippines.
Especially after positive results in the Philippines, it would have been logical for Google to introduce the concept in India.
But some reports suggest the controversy, which also has seen app providers in India pull back from participation in, a zero rating program for India, is causing Google to wait, as well.
Separately, Telenor Pakistan has launched in Pakistan, making available to Telenor Pakistan's customers free access to 17 basic online services including Accuweather, BBC, BabyCenter &MAMA, Malaria No More, UNICEF Facts for Life,, ESPN Cricinfo, Mustakbil, ilmkidunya, Telenor News, Urdupoint Cooking, OLX, Face…

Smart in Philippines Launching Sponsored Data Program

PLDT,through its mobile subsidiary Smart Communications, is launching a sponsored data service initially available to subscribers of Talk ‘N Text, the value brand of Smart, as well as Sun Cellular, a wireless unit of PLDT. Smart is the Philippines' leading wireless services provider with 54 million subscribers.

It is possible that the Philippines and India could be moving in opposite directions where it comes to zero rating and sponsored data. Philippines mobile operators already have proff that zero rating lifts use of mobile Internet.

In India, regulators might bar the practice, despite its apparent usefulness.

PLDT saw  mobile Internet revenues increase 19 percent year-over-year in the to P2.2 first quarter of 2015, based on free access programs.

“The uplift of our mobile Internet revenues underscores the success of our Free Internet offer,” said PLDT and Smart president and chief executive officer Napoleon L. Nazareno.

From September 2014 to February 2015, Smart ran a “Free Inter…

Would a "Level Playing Field" Save Voice?

Former Vodafone India CEO and Managing Director Martin Pieters says over-the-top apps could be “fatal,” noting that 85 percent of mobile operator revenue is earned from voice services at risk from OTT alternatives.

On the other hand, there is a solution: data and other revenue sources. That will happen, according to the Cisco Visual Networking Index.

IP traffic in India will grow 400 percent from 2014 to 2019, a compound annual growth of 33 percent.
More to the point, smartphones will account for 40 percent (651.4 million) of all networked devices in 2019, compared to 13 percent (139.8 million) in 2014, representing a 36 percent compound annual growth rate.
The point is that, in India, as elsewhere, mobile Internet services will replace voice revenues.
“We are not denying the new reality but we are just saying give us some more time to adjust,” he said.

That, in essence, is the framework for the current debate in India about whether OTT voice apps should be subject to the same rules as c…

In Latin America, Facebook and Google Represent 60% of Mobile Traffic

You probably are not too surprised to find out that Netflix accounts for 36.5 percent of North American downstream traffic in the peak evening hours.
But you might be more surprised to learn that, In Latin American, just two companies--Facebook and Google--now represent more than 60 percent of total mobile traffic in the region, according to the Sandvine’s Global Internet Phenomena Report: Latin America & North America
“Network traffic in the Americas seems to be getting increasingly concentrated,” said Dave Caputo, CEO, Sandvine.

Cable TV Leads in Consumer Markets; How Long Before it Leads in Business Market?

Regulatory structures are hard to change, especially when they have been in place for a long time, even when markets have changed.
Consider the amount of time, money and effort devoted to all manner of rules applied only to some legacy telephone companies presumed to the carriers of last resort, with obligations to “serve everyone,” even when most contestants are not required to do so.
More shocking is when the actual leading providers in markets are unregulated, when the less dominant providers are so regulated.
And we soon will face an anomaly: the supposed “leaders” of the consumer communications market will clearly have lost their leadership, yet still be highly regulated, while the new leaders, continuing to grow faster, are lightly regulated and bear no “carrier of last resort” obligations.
Should the Charter Communications bid to acquire Time Warner Cable pass regulatory muster, and some of us would bet it will, more light will be shed on the relative roles of cable TV and telepho…

Net Neutrality is Industrial Policy

All communications regulatory frameworks--indeed all regulatory frameworks without exception--have direct business implications, in addition to any number of foreseeable and unforeseen indirect implications.
So you might ask what it means if “strong” network neutrality rules are instituted in the U.S. market, while Europe, which many would have predicted was more likely to do so, seems clearly to be backing away from the concept.
By “strong” we mean not simply the principle that lawful apps cannot be blocked but that all consumer applications are delivered “best effort,” with no packet prioritization permitted in the access network.
It can be suggested that network neutrality is no longer on the agenda in Europe for one simple reason: regulators understand there is a connection between network neutrality and capital investment, in the European setting.
Strongly desirous of high levels of new investment in communications networks--fixed and mobile--European regulators are willing to take…