When Robotaxis Will Displace Auto Rentals

Inevitably, people are going to wonder when, and under what circumstances, robotaxis are going to displace auto rentals, just as there was similar questioning when ride sharing first developed. 

And, in all likelihood, the decision matrix will be roughly similar. The most vulnerable segment will be short-duration rentals in dense urban areas, on short trips of one to perhaps three days, as often is the case for ride sharing as an alternative to car rental. 

Single travelers are probably more likely to use robotaxis than groups or families. 

But ride sharing still does not compete well with auto rentals in many instances, including trips that last more than several days; involve distance travel and travel to rural areas. 

For example, on an upcoming week-long trip with a distance from airport to destination of about 70 miles, one-way using Uber will probably be about $158 (fare plus tip), so assume double that for the roundtrip, or about $316. Renting a vehicle for the week (six days) will run about $328. 

Granted, that will include fuel charges and possibly some parking, but the $12 difference also includes local transportation for the whole six days. 

Actually, for that particular trip, which I take relatively frequently, even a short weekend visit works out better just renting a vehicle, rather than relying on ride sharing.

Travel Mode Cost Comparison

When Ride-sharing & Robotaxis Beat Auto Rentals

Cost-Effective Alternative

Marginal/Situational

Not Cost-Effective

Travel Scenario	Current Rideshare (2025)	Robotaxis (2027-2030)	Key Factors	Rental Car Advantages
LOCAL TRAVEL (Within Metro Area)
Single Person, 1-2 Days Business meetings, short visits	Cost-Effective $40-80/day total	Highly Cost-Effective $25-50/day total	No parking costs, insurance, or fuel. Short distances favor per-trip pricing.	Flexibility for spontaneous stops, privacy
Group (3-4 people), 1-2 Days Friends visiting, family events	Marginal $60-120/day total	Cost-Effective $35-70/day total	Per-person cost sharing makes robotaxis attractive	Group luggage space, split rental costs
Single Person, 3-7 Days Extended business, family visits	Marginal $120-280/week	Cost-Effective $75-175/week	Daily usage patterns matter. High-frequency days favor robotaxis.	Unlimited usage, storage for personal items
Group, 3-7 Days Family vacations, group trips	Not Cost-Effective $180-420/week	Marginal $105-245/week	Multiple daily trips with groups become expensive	Luggage capacity, convenience for families
OUT-OF-TOWN TRAVEL (Regional/Long-Distance)
Single Person, 1-2 Days Regional business, weekend getaways	Not Cost-Effective $200-400+ each way	Marginal $120-250+ each way	Distance is key factor. Under 200 miles may favor robotaxis by 2030.	Much cheaper for long distances, route flexibility
Group, 1-2 Days Weekend trips, events	Not Cost-Effective $300-600+ each way	Not Cost-Effective $180-375+ each way	Long-distance robotaxis remain expensive even with cost sharing	Significant cost advantage, luggage space
Single Person, 3-7 Days Extended regional travel	Not Cost-Effective $400-800+ total	Not Cost-Effective $240-500+ total	Rental becomes dramatically cheaper for extended regional stays	Unlimited local driving, much lower per-day cost
Group, 3-7 Days Family vacations, multi-day trips	Not Cost-Effective $600-1200+ total	Not Cost-Effective $360-750+ total	Rental cars dominate for extended out-of-town group travel	Massive cost advantage, convenience, storage
SPECIAL CONSIDERATIONS
Airport-Only Business Travel Fly in, meetings, fly out	Cost-Effective $30-60 total	Highly Cost-Effective $20-40 total	Airport parking costs ($15-30/day) make alternatives attractive	None - rideshare/robotaxis clearly superior
Dense Urban Areas NYC, SF, Chicago downtown	Cost-Effective Variable by usage	Highly Cost-Effective Variable by usage	Parking costs ($25-50/day) and congestion favor alternatives	Very limited - mainly privacy and storage
Rural/Remote Areas National parks, small towns	Not Available Limited service	Limited Availability May remain limited	Service availability is primary constraint	Often the only viable option

Key Assumptions & Variables

• Robotaxi Pricing: Assumes 30-40% cost reduction vs. current rideshare due to elimination of driver costs
• Rental Car Costs: $40-70/day base rate plus gas ($30-50/day), insurance ($15-25/day), parking ($0-50/day)
• Trip Distance: Local = within 50 miles, Regional = 50-300 miles, Long-distance = 300+ miles
• Usage Patterns: Assumes 2-4 trips per day for local travel, varies by scenario
• Market Maturity: Robotaxi projections assume mature service with high vehicle availability
• Parking Costs: Urban areas ($20-50/day), Suburbs ($0-15/day), highly variable by location
• Group Size: Assumes single occupancy for business, 2-4 people for leisure travel

Will Sports Content Become More a Buyers' Market?

Whenever investors think about media, telecom and technology assets, changes in the content business are an unavoidable subject, as business models are changing.

Among the changes is the role of sports content as a driver of viewer engagement and therefore revenue potential. By some estimates, while sports programming makes up about 10 percent to 15 percent of channels in a typical cable bundle, it accounts for nearly 50 percent of content costs.

Historically, such premiums have been driven by the belief (and reality) that major league content (NFL, NBA, MLB) offers a unique value proposition: live, unscripted events that attract large, real-time audiences. 

The issue is that as the cost of gaining those rights has ballooned, new questions are raised about whether paying for those rights is possibly greater than the revenue generated by having the rights. 

For linear subscription TV services, amortizing the cost of sports programming over a shrinking subscriber base seems unsustainable. And declining viewership for major league sports seems to be happening. 

The caveat is that some viewing also has shifted to streaming platforms. 

Sports Viewership Decline on Linear TV (2020-2024)
Sport/Event	2020 Average Viewers	2022 Average Viewers	2024 Average Viewers	% Change (2020-2024)
NFL Regular Season	15.4 million	14.1 million	12.8 million	-16.90%
NBA Regular Season	1.96 million	1.6 million	1.38 million	-29.60%
MLB Regular Season	1.1 million	0.94 million	0.83 million	-24.50%
NHL Regular Season	0.47 million	0.42 million	0.38 million	-19.10%
Premier League Soccer	0.52 million	0.48 million	0.43 million	-17.30%
College Football (FBS)	1.84 million	1.57 million	1.32 million	-28.30%
NASCAR Cup Series	3.06 million	2.7 million	2.21 million	-27.80%
Olympics (Summer/Winter)*	19.8 million	11.4 million	9.9 million	-50.00%
The Masters Golf	5.6 million	4.8 million	4.2 million	-25.00%
Wimbledon (Finals)	2.2 million	1.9 million	1.7 million	-22.70%

The key observation is that all major sports properties have experienced double-digit percentage declines since 2020. Some note that younger viewers are opting for clips, highlight reels and other shorter-form content, rather than watching “whole games or matches.”

Olympic broadcasts show the steepest decline at 50 percent. 

NBA and College Football have experienced nearly 30 percent viewership drops. 

Traditional sports with older demographics (golf, tennis) have fared somewhat better but still show significant losses. 

Many, for example, would have argued that Warner Brothers Discovery losing NBA rights for TNT would be a major blow. Others might argue the avoided costs are greater than the potential revenue would have been. 

In other words, at what point will licensees begin to more-seriously question how much they can afford to pay to get broadcast rights to such content. We can assume high sports rights costs have been an issue for decades, using cable operator concern about the cost of ESPN carriage rights as a prime example. 

Sport	Total Annual Rights Fees (USD)	Linear Networks	Fees by Linear (USD)	Streaming Networks	Fees by Streaming (USD)	Contract Duration	Content and Format
NFL	$9.46 billion	CBS, Fox, NBC, ESPN/ABC	$8.46 billion	Amazon Prime Video	$1 billion	2023–2033	Amazon pays $1B/year for Thursday Night Football; rest split among linear.
NBA	$6.9 billion	ESPN/ABC, NBC	$4.9 billion	Amazon Prime Video	$2 billion	2025–2036	New deal starts 2025–26; Amazon’s 66 games estimated at $1.8–2B/year.
MLB	$1.96 billion (national)	ESPN, Fox, TBS	$1.84 billion	Apple TV+, Roku	$120 million	Varies (e.g., 2022–2028)	National deals only; RSNs add ~$2B more but are team-specific.
NHL	$625 million	ESPN/ABC, TNT	$625 million	None (ESPN+ simulcasts)	Included in linear	2021–2028	ESPN ($400M) and TNT ($225M) include streaming components.
MLS	$250 million	Fox (limited)	$30 million	Apple TV+	$220 million	2023–2032	Apple’s $2.5B deal dominates; Fox’s smaller linear package.
WNBA	$200 million	ESPN, CBS, Scripps	$150 million	Amazon Prime Video	$50 million	2026–2036	Part of NBA’s $76B deal; streaming share estimated.
NASCAR	$1.1 billion	Fox, NBC	$800 million	Amazon Prime Video, TNT	$300 million	2025–2031	New deal splits linear (Fox/NBC) and streaming (Amazon/TNT).
Big Ten	$1.07 billion	Fox, CBS, NBC	$1 billion	Peacock (via NBC)	$70 million	2023–2030	Peacock’s share is estimated; linear dominates.

Still, much of the value of sports rights is arguably intangible, as revenues (advertising, subscription revenue contribution) might not directly cover the cost of rights payments. So much of the value comes from higher ability to attract and retain customers, for example, by boosting perceived content value. 

There clearly is an argument to be made that direct revenue opportunities do not actually explain why distributors would pay so much for sports rights. Obviously there is perceived value beyond the direct revenue upside. 

When Warner Brothers Discovery lost its NBA rights, the avoided costs were about $1.4 billion, against expected revenue of about $600 million, for example. 

Looking at various sports rights costs and direct revenues, it might be argued that the value of such rights is to be found only partly in direct revenues, since no sport seems to generate direct distributor revenue in excess of rights cost. 

Sport	Annual Licensing Rights Cost (USD)	Linear Licensees	Linear Revenue Est. (USD)	Streaming Licensees	Streaming Revenue Est. (USD)
NFL	$9.46 billion	CBS, Fox, NBC, ESPN/ABC	$4.5–5B (ads)	Amazon Prime Video	$1–1.5B (ads + subs)
NBA	$6.9 billion	ESPN/ABC, NBC	$2–2.5B (ads)	Amazon Prime Video	$0.8–1.2B (ads + subs)
MLB	$1.96 billion (national) + ~$2B RSNs	ESPN, Fox, TBS	$1.5–2B (ads)	Apple TV+, Roku	$50–100M (subs)
NHL	$625 million	ESPN/ABC, TNT	$400–500M (ads)	None (ESPN+ simulcasts)	Included in linear
PGA Tour	$550 million	CBS, NBC, Golf Channel	$300–400M (ads)	None (Peacock simulcasts)	Included in linear
MLS	$250 million	Fox (limited)	$20–30M (ads)	Apple TV+	$150–200M (subs)

Sports rights have been a seller’s market for decades, but one wonders if that now is potentially changing.