Since all prior instances of computing applied to work have eliminated some number of jobs, it only makes sense to predict that artificial intelligence also will do so. But among the questions is the issue of incidence: where the job losses will occur.
Historically, the introduction of computers and automation led to the reduction or elimination of many routine, repetitive, or data-driven job functions. And though we might be tempted to think the jobs were “blue collar,” most of the losses affected “white collar” workers in offices.
AI seems destined to become a substitute for a wider range of “routine tasks” but also is ;going to affect more complex cognitive work as well.
Routine, structured cognitive tasks are most vulnerable, especially those involving data processing, document review, and standardized content creation. We might already guess that entry-level and support roles in law, finance, marketing, and administration face the highest risk.
Jobs requiring human judgment, creativity or complex interpersonal skills are less exposed, but even these may see significant transformation as AI tools become more sophisticated.
The history of applied computerization also set that pattern.