Voice a Broadband Killer App?

There is much truth to the notion that "email was the killer app for dial-up." There may also be some truth to the notion that "voice is the killer app for broadband." At least that seems to be a developing theme for SureWest Communications. 

SureWest benefits by selling more bundled triple-play services with the offering, thereby enhancing overall subscriber margins. "We have converted nearly 2,900 customers from the telecom voice product to the new broadband Voice over IP service since its launch earlier this year," he says. "And of those converted customers, over 20 percent added SureWest Internet with their phone service, and over 10 percent added TV."

In other words, VoIP has driven buying of other key services as well, especially broadband Internet access and IPTV. SureWest broadband residential voice RGUs increased seven percent year-over-year and five percent sequentially. In the original Sacramento region, voice RGU growth was 18 percent year-over-year and 13 percent sequentially.

U.S. Mobile Data Prospects in 2009

The U.S. wireless data market grew 7.3 percent sequentially in the third quarter 2008 and 37.5 percent year over year to reach $8.8 billion in data services revenues. For first nine months, mobile data revenues of $24.5 billion were equal to the revenues generated for all of 2007. 

The big question is what happens in the fourth quarter and after, as it appears handset upgrades and sales, for example, already are slowing. Some observers think wireless data service revenes will hold up. Analyst Chetan Sharma, for example, notes that text messaging represents 40 percent of all data revenues, and that the texting habit is unlikely to change. 

In the third quarter, U.S. messaging volumes grew 38 percent while messaging revenues grew six percent. Use of wireless dongles and cards for mobile PC access has been a big driver of revenue of late, and Sharma thinks that could an area of softness though, for the simple reason that many former users will fall victim to layoffs, while managements might be less generous in providing such technology to their remaining employees.

Still, it is conceivable that mobile data growth in the U.S. market will flatten out in 2009, says Sharma. "If the job loss rate increases substantially, more than it has been in the third quarter and into the fourth quarter, we might, just might, start to see flattening of data revenues in the first quarter of 2009 and gradual decline over the course of the year," says Sharma. 

Mobile providers probably can counteract economic issues by emphasizing sales of sub-$200 smart phones bundled with data plans, Charma says. To the extent there is an economic effect, it is likely to be on average revenue per user, Sharma suggests. 

That likely will be the case for wired network providers as well, as price and bundle promotions increase.

Operators in Europe have already started to feel the pinch, Sharma says. Vodafone and Telefonica recently have seen a decline in overall revenues. Though overall service revenues declined 1.7 percent, data revenues grew 30 percent. That suggests the importance of data plan, handset and bundling programs. 

100 Mbps Inevitable; Only Question is Price

NTT long has been the "gold standard" for residential bandwidth. But Verizon has closed the gap, suggesting that 100 Mbps is destined to become a common access speed.

The issue is how long it might take before such speeds are affordable.

To be sure, most of that bandwidth is needed for one simple reason: entertainment video. In its own analysis, Verizon has estimated that current and future needs for virtually all other applications top out at about 15 Mbps symmetrical bandwidth.

Beyond that, it is network-hosted applications and new forms of video that require higher bandwidth. Since it delivers linear video using a separate wavelength, Verizon thinks it really only needs about 15 Mbps downstream to support on-demand video.

But there's little question what happens if three-dimensional TV is commercialized. Then 75 Mbps might be required to deliver one stream.

88% of Internet Users Will Be Watching Online Video by 2013

By 2013, more than 69 percent of online video ad revenue will be associated with long-form video. By that point, about 88 percent of all Internet users will be watching online video as well, eMarketer now projects.

As good as that will be for content owners, it is unclear whether the trend will be good, bad or neutral for Internet access providers. Much depends on how involved ISPs are in the revenue value chain.

Have Landlines in Service Actually Decreased?

Just about everybody assumes that landlines in service have declined over the last seven or eight years. To be sure, if one looks at Federal Communications Commission data, there is a net loss of about 34 million access lines between the end of 2000 and the end of 2007, though there has been significant shift of market share from incumbents to cable TV and competitive local exchange carriers.

But there are some facts one wouldn't immediately see. Wired broadband connections increased by more than 65 million over the same time frame. And business lines in service likewise increased, despite technological substitution of broadband for narrowband lines.

So one has to differentiate between lines that shifted to new providers, lines that shifted from narrowband to broadband and lines that shifted to over-the-top providers (A customer buying an over-the-top VoIP service is still a wired voice customer, even if a "line" appears to be gone.

If one assumes that the roughly three million U.S. VoIP lines are active, revenue-generating wired voice lines, the market as a whole lost about 31 million lines, for all reasons, between 2000 and the beginning of 2008.

Broadband lines in service grew from perhaps five million in 2000 to about 65.4 million in 2007. Even if every broadband line represented the loss of a narrowband line, overall lines in service clearly have grown.

Is TV Getting Cannibalized or Not?

A new IBM study reveals that online video is cannibalizing television consumption. Another study by Nielsen says U.S. TV watching actually has climbed. Maybe there are key differences between U.S. and global TV viewing that could account for the differences. But the Nielsen report also notes that “TV use is at an all-time high, yet people are also using the Internet more often; 31 percent of which is happening simultaneously,” Susan Whiting, Nielsen vice chairwoman says.

That's a potential way of harmonizing some of the difference. People could be watching online video while the TV is on in the background.

The IBM poll of 2,800 people in six countries found that 76 percent have viewed video online and that 45 percent do so regularly. About 15 percent of those who watch online videos say they watch "slightly less" TV than they used to, while 36 percent say they watch "significantly less" TV as a result of their online video viewing. Indeed, "place-shifting alternatives may be changing consumer couch-potato behavior," the study claims. IBM polled 2,800 people in six countries for the study.

In the third quarter of 2008, the average American watched approximately 142 hours of TV per month, five hours more than they watched in a typical month during the same period a year ago, Nielsen says. During the 2007 to 2008 television season, the average U.S. household consumed eight hours and 18 minutes of TV per day, a record high since Nielsen started measuring television in the 1950s.

Americans who used the Internet were online 27 hours a month, and people who used a mobile phone spent three hours a month watching mobile video. Men were more likely than women to watch via mobile phone, while women were more likely then men to watch video online.

HDTV Drives 2.3 Million Churn Events

HDTV purchases seem to be driving some amount of service provider churn: nine percent of HDTV owners say that they switched multi-channel video providers when they purchased their HDTV, according to Leichtman Research Group. About 22 percent of all households purchased a new TV set in the past 12 months, with 43 percent of this group spending over $1,000 on a new TV.

There are about 114.5 million U.S. TV households. That suggests 25.2 million TV homes bought HDTVs. If nine percent of those buyers switched providers, that suggests 2.3 million homes switched providers, or about two percent of TV households, over the last 12 months, because of an HDTV purchase.