Saturday, September 25, 2010

Stimulus didn't save the nation from depression

Economists now say the Great Recession ended in June of 2009, when the economy began growing again. And now people are arguing the the trillion dollar American Reinvestment and Recovery Act "saved" us from a worse outcome. Really?

The ARRA was passed in February 2009. The recession ended in June 2009. By the end of September 2009 (after the recession had ended), just $36.2 billion had actually been received, either by agencies that would disburse funds, or directly by individuals.

Do you really believe less than $36 billion in ARRA spending had any meaningful impact?

http://www.recovery.gov/Transparency/RecipientReportedData/Pages/QuarterlySum.aspx?qtr=2009Q3

A Scary Chart

There is something about this chart that should worry you. Note the length of the 1929 recession, about 44 months.

If you know your U.S. history, you know that the United States was in a "Great Depression" throughout the 1930s, getting out only sometime during World War II.

So the "official" recession last less than four years, though the Great Depression lasts up to a decade and a half.

Part of the reason is that there were two separate "recessions" during the Great Depression, if we can say something that sounds nonsensical.

Also, despite the moniker "roaring twenties," and the undeniable growth of that period, there were recessions in 1920, 1923, 1926 and 1929. Every three years, a reversal from growth to decline.

Given current worry about a double dip recession, and recent comments by the Federal Reserve suggesting it is worried about that happening, despite other "happy talk" about the low possibility of such an event, the 1920s and even 1950s record suggests one can say it is possible, perhaps even likely, there could be a growth reversal every three years, even in an otherwise robust economic climate.

If the last recession "ended" in June 2009, that might suggest another recession starting in June 2012 or so. Maybe its not strictly a "double dip," but two separate recessions. Americans won't care.

Nor does it provide any comfort to note there were "just" two recessions in the era we call the Great Depression. In other words, the formal definitions are one thing; the human experience quite another thing.

Friday, September 24, 2010

What If Verizon Never Gets the iPhone?

It could be a blessing in disguise.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/pcworld/20100924/tc_pcworld/whatifverizonnevergetstheiphone_1

Adding voice to text

Some firms see an opportunity.

http://www.trendcentral.com/WebApps/App/SnapShots/Article.aspx?ArticleId=7963

Microsoft mobile market share will triple within 2 years?

That would-be quite a feat.

http://www.phonearena.com/htmls/Microsoft-market-share-will-triple-within-2-years-according-to-analyst-article-a_13504.html?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+phonearena%2FySoL+%28Phone+Arena+-+Latest+News%29&utm_content=Google+Reader

Cloud Startup Values Are Getting Insane

Sure signs of yet another bubble forming, most likely.

http://cloud.gigaom.com/2010/09/24/cloud-startup-values-are-getting-insane/

Clearwire Open to T-Mobile Investment

Clearwire CEO Bill Morrow says Clearwire now is in talks with T-Mobile USA about a potential investment in Clearwire, a move with repercussions now only for Clearwire and T-Mobile USA, but also for Harbinger Capital, which is attempting to fund its "LightSquared" 4G mobile network, and has been hoping it could attract T-Mobile USA as an anchor customer, one might argue.

Morrow says Clearwire could raise money by selling off unneeded spectrum. However, Morrow said that the company's preference is to get an equity investment from a service provider that would rent space on its network at a preferred rate, similar to the deal Sprint Nextel has with Clearwire. Sprint holds a 54 percent stake in Clearwire.

The Roots of our Discontent

Political disagreements these days seem particularly intractable for all sorts of reasons, but among them are radically conflicting ideas ab...