Moore's Law, Cooper's Law, Zoning Law

Spectrum efficiency typically doubles about every 30 months, where Moore's Law suggests computing or storage capacity doubles about every 18 months.

Ability to place new cell towers does not double every 30 months, according to a rule of thumb called Cooper's Law.

For reasons of zoning rules, neighborhood objections and money, the ability to build new towers to increase capacity without additional spectrum is limited.

There is no Moore's Law for steel towers or electricity or construction costs. Some estimate that the cost to each national mobile provider of additional capacity, gained by shrinking cell sizes, without adding spectrum, is as much as $40 billion.

To be sure, spectrum costs money, and new towers would have to build at some locations, even with new spectrum allocations (networks operating at different frequencies require different topologies, all other things being equal). So there is no way to avoid additional investment.

All that explains why the Federal Communications Commission believes it is imperative to license new spectrum, and why AT&T thinks it has to move now to acquire T-Mobile. It's a real estate deal, more than anything else.

Square Adds Digital Wallet Features, Pay by Name

Up to this point, Square arguably has gotten the most traction from smaller and non-traditional retailers who need the ability to accept credit and debit card payments where they are, without investing in the full retail point of sale infrastructure, using just the Square appliance and an iPhone. But Square also is developing ways for retailers to use an iPad as a functional equivalent of a POS terminal, in addition to iPhones.

The new wrinkle is that the iPad software also allows businesses to update their inventory, add specials, and track customer behavior, moving into the analytics function. Square also is offering a sort of peer-to-peer service that allows retailers to accept payments from customers who already have received credit card information on file.

The new "Card Case" app allows users to see nearby businesses, read menus, store electronic copies of all your receipts and pay by giving the retailer just a name. The merchant then can access credit card information the customer already has provided to the merchant.

Square’s big plans to kill the cash register

Watch Out When Valuations Aren't Based on Earnings

There isn't a social media bubble, a PwC consultant says. But watch out when experts start using metrics other than those based on earnings. That's what happened during the 1999 technology bubble as well. People started inventing metrics not based on earnings, because there were no earnings.

Obviously, some firms do have actual earnings. But many do not. So beware when people start saying "price to earnings" ratios aren't the best way to value firms. That's the same slippery slope that lead to disaster last time. PwC partner Ian Coleman says "value per user" is a reasonable way to value firms. Watch out. That's bubble talk.

PwC: This Is Not A Bubble, Valuations May Be Justified

How Small Businesses Look for Customers

Fully 86 percent of small and mid-sized businesses (500 employees or fewer) rely on their websites to look for new customers, a survey of 300 business managers and owners suggests.

But small business owners and managers use a wide range of channels to look for new customers, a study by Bredin Business Information suggests.

But 74 percent use email and search marketing. Some 57 percent use blogs and LinkedIn.  As you might guess, executives are not as satisfied with the channels as they want to be.

But given typical marketing industry rules of thumb, virtually all of the channels are effective. For example, you might think the fact that 29 percent of respondents think blogs and other forms of social media are effective, a huge drop from the 2010 surveys, as an indication that the channels "don't work."

But compared to a direct response "success" rate of perhaps one percent, 29 percent effectiveness is quite high. Still, the 2011 survey results indicate that an initial burst of enthusiasm in 2010 for various forms of social media now has settled down.

That's normal for any emerging channel: there is too much optimism at first. Then reality sets in and marketers learn to use each tool in the right way, with reasonable expectations.

http://www.bbionline.com/press_05032011.htm

Shopping has Become More Social

A study by Yahoo finds that consumers are less impulsive in their shopping behavior because of the Internet, but also has become much more social, with 49 percent of users sharing their views and opinions about products.

Consumers routinely are checking consumer and expert reviews before committing to purchases, for example, and social networks are a particular enabler of such sharing.

"We found that 49 percent of consumers give advice to others, motivated by a feeling of solidarity with other shoppers," the Yahoo study says.

Long and Winding Road: The Gamesmanship of Shopping

25 ways IT will morph in the next 25 years

With the caveat that futurists often are quite wrong (we were supposed to be flying instead of driving cars by this time), the next 25 years might include dramatic changes in the computing fabric, including smart phones with the processing power of supercomputing and personal fixed terabit and gigabit mobile connections, some predict.

25 ways IT will morph in the next 25 years

But 25 years is a long time in technology. By 2020, the Internet might have evolved in ways that are more linear extrapolations of today's trends. See http://www.networkworld.com/news/2010/010410-outlook-vision-predictions.html?page=2.

Will Google Make the "Tablet" a Peripheral?

Motorola's Atrix is a smartphone that docks to a "notebook" peripheral. Will Google try something similar, and make an Android the central processor for a "tablet" that is a display? It is at least possible, given some new intellectual property Google has purchased.

Patents Google seems to have purchased would allow a smartphone to Though the drive any number of "peripherals," ranging from tablets to notebooks to typical PC peripherals or machine to machine devices. Though the notion will be unsettling to many within the consumer electronics and computing ecosystems, such a move would make sense for several reasons, among them more options to deal with the issues of screen size, battery life and input-output choices from the one device everybody carries with them, all the time.

Google buys Modu's patent portfolio for $4.7 million

Such an approach would "solve" a problem many users might have, namely the requirement to carry multiple devices, in a variety of form factors, when traveling or out of the office. As a practical matter, many simply solve the problem by carrying only a smart phone most of the time, then swapping a tablet for a notebook when away from the desk for longer periods, making the smart phone and the tablet the two essential devices.

Traveling then raises the issue of which other devices one chooses to carry, in addition to those two. The ability to dock a powerful smart phone with peripherals could make some of the choices easier, and should, in principle, also reduce the cost of the overall set of solutions.

http://www.intomobile.com/2011/05/22/handson-htc-flyer-tablet-7inch-screen-15-ghz-and-stylus/