Is Consumer Sentiment Now a Leading Indicator?

Consumer sentiment classically lags trends in the real economy. But a new survey by Ipsos of consumer sentiment around the world might suggest our rules are wrong at the moment. There is a reasonable argument that consumer sentiment at the moment is signaling another recession, in advance of the event. http://www.ipsos-na.com/download/pr.aspx?id=10992


According to a new report by Ipsos, consumer assessment of the current state of their country's economy for a total global perspective, looks "as if the world took a step backwards by five months." 


The global aggregate national economic sentiment dropped two points this month to 38 percent. The downward movement comes directly after a period of relative consistency for the global average. This measure takes us back to March 2011 and is on par with January 2010, says the report. 


All three metrics measured monthly: assessments of their current national economy (-2 points to 38 percent), current local economy (-2 pts to 29 percent) and future outlook (-1 pt to 24 percent), reflect this drop. And, the future outlook is in a continuous downward trend: from 31% positive outlook in March 2010 to 24% now.


While Europe continues to weigh down the global average, though its downward movement in this wave is only one point across the board. It's the Middle East and Africa as a region that shows the greatest downward shifts.


Some economists and observers have been warning that U.S. pundits and consumers could literally "talk us back into a recession," as a self-fulfilling prophecy would occur. All the talk of another recession would lead to consumers further restricting their spending, which then would cause the next recession.


If the Ipsos data is matched by consumer behavior, that might already have begun to happen. The novel aspect would be if consumer sentiment this time actually was a leading indicator, not a lagging indicator, as traditional economics suggests is the case. It's just one more sign that our normal rules of thumb appear not to be working. 

Was Einstein Wrong?

Einstein's famous equation E=MC2 is among the fundamental aspects of modern physics that would have to be revised if it turns out other scientists can replicate the recent finding of a sub-atomic particle that travels faster than the speed of light. But if C is off, it means that all nuclear physics has to be recalibrated, says scientist Michio Kaku, theoretical physics professor at City College of New York.

Modern physics is based on two theories, relativity and the quantum theory, so half of modern physics would have to be replaced by a new theory.

One almost hesitates to mention it, but a similar spirit of strict adherence to the limits of all scientific theories applies elsewhere. "Scientific" claims not based strictly on the limits of experimental evidence are matters of dogma, not science.

Dramatic "climate change" has happened often in Earth's geologic history, and only recently would it even have been possible for human activity to affect, much less cause it. Critical skepticism about the amount of human-caused climate change is not non-scientific or anti-scientific, but a recognition that we do not have clear or ample data to measure changes occurring over geologic time.

Similarly, one can accept random evidence of genetic mutation, the geologic age of the Earth and many other biological occurrences as compatible with science. But one might question the completeness of the theory that one can explain the evolution of all life on the planet, occurring only by random processes. That is not anti-scientific or non-scientific. It is only skepticism about a theory that claims complete explanations on partial evidence.

It remains to be seen whether other independent tests can confirm the CERN findings. But if the findings are confirmed, we will have a clear example of the fact that "science" is bounded by those claims which are confirmed by repeatable experimental evidence. Where experimentation is not possible, we ought to treat our theories as that: theories. When new evidence doesn't fit our theories, we must change our theories.

Mobile Broadband in Kenya

Though voice remains a key revenue driver in developing regions, mobile broadband won't be long in becoming the focus of revenue growth there, as it is becoming the key factor in developed regions.

Mobile broadband Kenya

Lower ARPU, Not Churn, is Big Subscription TV Issue

With 60 percent of 18 to 34 year-olds now regularly watching movies and TV shows online, are viewers abandoning subscription TV services? Not quite yet, according to Altman Vilandrie & Company and Research Now, conducted with 1000 consumers in July 2011.

Only three percent to four percent of consumers have “cut the cord,” cancelling their subscription service because online video meets their needs. What is happening is that subscribers are spending less on their services than they used to.

Twenty percent of consumers now say they are cord shavers, spending less on cable TV because of the convenience of online video. up from 15 percent only a year ago. Nearly 30 percent of those under 35 also say they are cord shavers. They are watching content on mobile devices more often and, on the whole, value live programming (sports, news, etc.) less

Almost 40 percent of paid online video adopters claim they save money by ordering fewer pay-per-view movies or subscribing to fewer premium channels, and more than 20 percent claim they were able to subscribe to a lower tier package with their TV provider.

Still little cord cutting

Google Plus Traffic Went Up 1269% Last Week

New data from Experian Hitwise show a dramatic increase in traffic over the week since the service opened to everyone. Visits to Google+ increased by 1269 percent last week.

The site received 15 million U.S. visits, up from 1.1 million the week before. Google+ went from ranking 54th in Hitwise's Social Networking and Forums category to ranking 8th in just one week.

That's not all the traffic, either. These stats don't include mobile users or visits from the ubiquitous black Google toolbar.

The data still show that Google+ is disproportionately comprised of "influencers" and "early adopters" compared to other social networks, but the removal of invitations seems to have jump-started visits to the service.

According to Paul Allen's estimates, which have been on track in the past, Google Plus currently has around 43 million users.

Google Plus Traffic Went Up 1269% Last Week

Windows Still Dominates Operating System Market

Microsoft still dominates the PC and tablet operating system market.

Mobile Leadership Now Requires Intellectual Property Ownership

Efrat Kasznik, president of Foresight Valuation Group, and Brian Hinman, VP of intellectual property and licensing at InterDigital, seem to think it’s only going to get worse for anyone wanting to be taken seriously as a mobile player.

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