How Much Mobile Broadband Substitution Will Long Term Evolution Enable?

Few seem to doubt these days that mobile solutions have become functional substitutes for fixed line network products, with voice service being the obvious example. The new issue, especially as fourth generation networks are deployed and marketed, is the potential amount of potential product substitution for fixed line broadband. 


The key issue, for many fixed network competitors, is how much product substitution will occur, and how fast.
There seems little opposition to the notion that some significant potential for product substitution does exist, and not only in emerging markets where mobile broadband “will be broadband” much as “mobile voice is voice” and as the mobile phone is the primary way people in many markets will use the Internet.

Surveys by U.K. regulator Ofcom might be illustrative. Of all U.K. households in which at least one person is using mobile broadband services, 44 percent do not have a land-line broadband connection.

Since the first quarter of  2009 the number of U.K. households using both fixed and mobile broadband has been stable, at just under one in ten households, while those using solely fixed broadband  increased by two percentage points to 58 percent in the first quarter of  2011

Seven percent of U.K. households have only a mobile connection. Ofcom report

This mobile-only proportion is even larger among younger age groups and those who belong to lower socio-economic groups, the Ofcom report suggests.

Unsurprisingly, customers who rent their properties are also far more likely to use only a mobile broadband connection compared with those who own their own property.

This data demonstrates that substitution is a reality. There is no doubt that for a significant share of the U.K. population, mobile broadband  takes the place of a land-line connection to the Internet.

“We expect this group to grow steadily over the next four years as mobile network performance improves and prices remain competitive with land-line services,” says Declan Lonergan, Yankee Group analyst.

That doesn’t mean “most” consumers will do so; only that for many customer segments, this does make sense.

Sign of the Times at Best Buy

Best Buy, the U.S. electronics retailer, is reorganizing its retail sales groups into one "connectivity business group" that will focus on sales of mobile phones, computers, tablets, e-readers and the appropriate service plans at Best Buy and Best Buy Mobile stores.

The products inside the CBG group make up more than half of Best Buy's in-store sales as well as representing the fastest growing sectors for the company, outside of computers. That tells you quite a lot about what "consumer electronics" means these days, as well as where the sales volume is generated. 

Mobile phones and service plans are the largest generator of revenue at Best Buy.

The group will be comprised of 35,000 employees. Best Buy reorganizes around connected devices

LTE Will Mean Higher Mobile Broadband Substitution

Few seem to doubt these days that mobile solutions have become functional substitutes for fixed line network products, with voice service being the obvious example. The new issue, especially as fourth generation networks are deployed and marketed, is the potential amount of potential product substitution for fixed line broadband.

There seems little opposition to the notion that some significant potential for product substitution does exist, and not only in emerging markets where mobile broadband “will be broadband” much as “mobile voice is voice” and as the mobile phone is the primary way people in many markets will use the Internet.

Some would say the emergence of the mobile personal hotspot is a major enabler, as well, allowing a single mobile connection to serve multiple devices, instead of “one PC.”

Surveys by U.K. regulator Ofcom might be illustrative. Of all U.K. households in which at least one person is using mobile broadband services, 44 percent do not have a land-line broadband connection.

Since the first quarter of  2009 the number of U.K. households using both fixed and mobile broadband has been stable, at just under one in ten households, while those using solely fixed broadband  increased by two percentage points to 58 percent in the first quarter of  2011

Seven percent of U.K. households have only a mobile connection. Ofcom report

This mobile-only proportion is even larger among younger age groups and those who belong to lower socio-economic groups, the Ofcom report suggests.

Unsurprisingly, customers who rent their properties are also far more likely to use only a mobile broadband connection compared with those who own their own property.

This data demonstrates that substitution is a reality. There is no doubt that for a significant share of the U.K. population, mobile broadband  takes the place of a land-line connection to the Internet.

“We expect this group to grow steadily over the next four years as mobile network performance improves and prices remain competitive with land-line services,” says Declan Lonergan, Yankee Group analyst.

That doesn’t mean “most” consumers will do so; only that for many customer segments, this does make sense.

Screen Size Matters, But Mobiles are About Content Consumption

Mobile device screen size should make a difference in user behavior, one reasonably would expect, with lead applications varying with size of screen and input method. "Specifically, larger screen devices seem to fulfill productive needs while smaller screen devices tend to satisfy communication or entertainment needs," say researchers at In-Stat.

That should make sense. But the reported behavior might not always match actual behavior, particularly for tablets. PCs of all types remain a virtual requirement for content creation, while a variety of appliances can be used for content consumption.

Tablets and smaller-screen devices arguably represent a different lead experience, even though PCs, tablets and smart phones all are multi-purpose devices. That is to say, PCs (desktops and notebooks) can be used to consume or create content, but are virtually a requirement for creating content more complex than email or text messages.

Smart phones arguably still are balanced "communication" and "content consumption" devices. And though in surveys people tend to suggest they "work" on tablets, much of that "work" is one form or another of content consumption.

“The majority of tablet owners have a screen size between 9 and 11 inches, a size optimized for sophisticated uses that require a lot of interaction,” says Stephanie Ethier, In-Stat senior analyst. “The top uses for tablets are web browsing, email, and downloading and using applications, which are productivity-based uses. "

Portable media players, which can be virtually identical to tablets except for the smaller-than-5-inch screen, are used primarily to support entertainment-focused uses, like listening to music and watching video,” she says.

My own non-scientific observation is that tablets get used more often for "entertainment" than for work, though the "productivity" argument is used to justify buying them.

Apps differ by screen size?

Google Social Search Will Change SEO, Again

Not everybody will care, but Google's new "social" and "location" and "personal" approach to search is going to have some implications for the way search engine optimization gets done, not least of all because Google+ entries now apparently become part of the ranking algorithm. Google search gets more social

Instead of trying to figure out how to get sites to appear high up in organic search results, businesses will have to figure out how to attract real people to post information about them on Google. Google Search 

Google Wants to Buy T-Mobile USA?

You can expect to hear lots of rumors about "who wants to buy T-Mobile USA" in the coming months, if only because T-Mobile USA parent Deutsche Telekom really needs a "plan B" that allows it to gracefully exit the U.S. market and redeploy capital elsewhere.

In that vein, SNL Kagan says it has been told both Dish Network and Google have submitted formal offers to buy the firm. One never knows whether, in fact, such bids have been made, or how serious such bids might be.  Rumors of that sort get "leaked" all the time as trial balloons, sometimes in hopes of spurring serious thinking on a transaction.

That Dish Network plans to build a Long Term Evolution fourth generation network is not in doubt, and Dish executives have not shied away from saying they will buy or build as makes sense, financially.

A Google bid would be more complicated, given Google's status as primary backer of an open mobile operating system and owner of Motorola Mobility, a handset manufacturer and retailer. But, these days, it is quite hard to avoid all possible channel conflict.

Most people can think of all sorts of reasons why Google would not want to own T-Mobile USA. Operating a service provider business is a lower-margin business than Google is used to, is a difficult business that might slow the rest of Google down, raise new regulatory concerns and also make many of its other businesses a bit harder to run.

On the other hand, most people could probably think up ways it would benefit Google's other mobile-related businesses if Google had a ready made way to create products, define handsets and then get quick adoption in the market on at least one leading network.

It's the sort of thinking one suspects is happening at Amazon, about why it wants to be a supplier of tablet devices, and might well want to get into the smart phone business as well.

Smart phones and tablets both have become important content consumption platforms, and both Amazon and Google are in the content business, in different ways.

But it's just a rumor, at the moment.

Intuit Launches GoPayment Mobile Payments in Canada

Intuit's "GoPayment" dongle system, now is available in Canada. GoPayment is similar to Square, so if you understand what Square does, you also understand GoPayment.

The basic idea is simple, and elegant. Merchants often want to sell products in locations where a cash register and credit card terminal are not available.

In other cases a merchant cannot justify the cost of owning and operating such equipment. GoPayment turns an Apple iPhone, Android phone or a BlackBerry phone into a terminal that can accept debit cards and credit cards.