Provo, Utah is Google Fiber City Number 3

Google Fiber is coming to Provo, Utah, where Google Fiber will get a headstart by buying  iProvo, an existing fiberoptic network owned by the city.

The deal has to be approved by the City Council on April 23, 2013. It would be accurate to describe the network as "troubled," at least historically.  The network was sold to Broadweave Networks.

Broadweave then merged with Veracity Networks, which defaulted on its agreement with the city. In 2012 Provo took control again, and has been looking for a buyer ever since. 

Competing Internet service providers will feel more heat now that Google Fiber operates gigabit networks in three cities. That might not mean that major ISPs start upgrading to 1 Gbps everywhere. 

As typically is the case, major ISPs will upgrade where they have to, because of competitive conditions. So unless Google wants to build everywhere, and most seriously doubt that, gigabit networks will take some time to arrive. 

But gigabit networks seem likely to become the new benchmark. That alone will put increasing pressure on ISPs to upgrade.

Technology Futures, a firm with an extraordinary record of broadband predictions, now argues it is reasonable to expect that half of U.S. broadband access users will be buying 100 Mbps connections by about 2020.

Technology Futures also predicts that about 10 percent of customers will be buying 50 Mbps connections, while 24 percent will still be buying 24 Mbps service.

That might seem a crazy amount of bandwidth for “many typical users,” but standard technology forecasting techniques have, for more than a decade, actually suggested that would happen.

In 2001, for example, Technology Futures predicted that by year-end 2004, over 25 percent of U.S. households will have adopted broadband services, up from about five percent at the end of 2000. The actual U.S. broadband penetration rate was 30 percent, according to the Pew Internet and American Life Project.

“By 2010, we expect that the percentage will exceed 60 percent,” Technology Futures predicted in 2001. The actual penetration wound up being 66 percent.

Google Fiber's gigabit networks might actually push 100 Mbps access, in the near term.

In PCs, Smart Phones, Apple Has no Profit Competition

Apple wins, nearly everyone else struggles, in the personal computer market, where it comes to actual profit. That is the same story seen in the smart phone business, where Apple earns perhaps 71 percent of all industry profits .

Will U.S. Mobile Market be Lead by 2, 3 or 4 Providers?

There’s an inherent tension between promotion of competition and the normal and expected working of any market. 

In fact, one might well argue that market concentration is the inevitable result of consumers making choices. In other words, people buy the products and services they consider better.

That inevitably means the less-preferred providers go out of business or are bought by the more-successful suppliers. 

That leads to market concentration, and at some point, a reduction of competition and the benefits competition normally brings.

That sooner or later leads to regulatory action to break up successful firms and reignite competition, whereupon the cycle starts again. Telecommunications is the sort of industry, though, that causes issues.

It is a capital-intensive business, and like most capital-intensive businesses, has high barriers to entry. That means, under even the best of circumstances, that there will be relatively few suppliers in a market, because the market simply cannot support more than a handful.

The issue is “how many” firms it takes to sustain reasonable levels of competition. In France, the minimum number of suppliers in the mobile market is deemed to be four. 

In other markets, the number might be three. It is probably unlikely that the number two will be viewed as so reasonable.

So consolidation in Canada, the United States, France or anywhere else is pretty much just part of the normal dynamics of any competitive market. But it isn't so clear just how much consolidation regulators will permit.

The biggest question is whether U.S. regulators would allow Sprint and T-Mobile USA to merge, a possibility executives of both companies have talked about. The Department of Justice seems to be signaling that it would not allow such a merger.

Some think such a merger would not be approved, based

on the market concentration formula used by the DoJ and Federal Communications Commission.

Global Undersea Bandwidth Growth Shifts to Emerging Regions

Though overall demand for international bandwidth grew 39 percent in 2012, supply grew most strongly on routes connecting to emerging markets in Asia, Africa, the Middle East, and Latin America, TeleGeography says.

While bandwidth demand on the trans-Atlantic route--long the world’s highest-capacity route-- increased 36 percent annually between 2007 and 2012, demand for bandwidth from the United States to Latin America grew 70 percent per year over the same period,

At the same time, demand for capacity on the Europe-Asia route by way of Egypt grew 87 percent per year.

Carriers have kept up with increasing bandwidth demand by building new cables and upgrading existing systems, deploying a total of 54 Tbps of new capacity between 2007 and 2012, TeleGeography says. Over time, more of that capacity has been added on the routes connecting to emerging markets.

Between 1997 and 2002, the amount of new capacity deployed across the Atlantic was greater than the amount deployed on the trans-Pacific, US-Latin America, Intra-Asia, and Europe-Asia routes, combined.

Between 2002 and 2007, nearly half of all new capacity was deployed on the trans-Atlantic route.

Since 2007, each of the world’s major routes gaining between 10 Tbps and 12 Tbps.

Globally, emerging markets remain crucial for global telecom service provider growth. IDC predicts that emerging markets will contribute for 53 percent of 2012’s global information and communications technology growth.

Mobile will drive growth in the Asia-Pacific region, as elsewhere. But developing nations also will become the focus of broadband growth over the next decade or two, building on a substantial amount of growth since about 2005.

Mobile Commerce: eBay Leads

Some 14.3 percent of an Arbitron panel use the eBay mobile app. making eBay the top app for mobile shopper. 

The eBay mobile app was used, on average, for about 34.6 sessions, for an average of one hour and 48 minutes, during the February 2013 period, according to Arbitron, 

Mobile App	User %	Minutes/Month	Sessions/Month
eBay	14.3	108.4	34.6
Amazon Mobile	13.0	40.0	10.9
Groupon	11.1	22.2	9.1
Passbook	8.1	2.0	2.6
Craigslist Mobile	6.6	80.4	17.3

eBay is Top Mobile Commerce App

Some 14.3 percent of an Arbitron panel use the eBay mobile app. making eBay the top app for mobile shopper. 

The eBay mobile app was used, on average, for about 34.6 sessions, for an average of one hour and 48 minutes, during the February 2013 period, according to Arbitron, 

Mobile App	User %	Minutes/Month	Sessions/Month
eBay	14.3	108.4	34.6
Amazon Mobile	13.0	40.0	10.9
Groupon	11.1	22.2	9.1
Passbook	8.1	2.0	2.6
Craigslist Mobile	6.6	80.4	17.3

Will Softbank Respond to Dish Network Offer for Sprint?

At least so far, there has been no counter offer from Softbank for Sprint. That is not unexpected, given the surprise offer made by Dish Network , which apparently was learned of by Softbank directors only shortly before they began a scheduled board meeting. 

What remains now for Sprint directors is a tough assessment of the merits of each offer. Setting aside for the moment which offer is worth more, since that could change, which direction would give Sprint a greater chance to dramatically improve its fortunes in the U.S. market?

As most immediately would note, Dish Network has spectrum assets to contribute, and arguably is in a better position to reduce operating costs by eliminating "redundancies" and overlap in the Sprint and Dish Network operations. 

Dish argues such savings might result in more than a billion dollars. But Softbank would bring more scale in the mobile segment of the business. 

But either firm stands to gain something tactically, even if a strategic defeat occurs. Others would note that Softbank will be paid a $600 million breakup fee if its bid to buy Sprint were rejected. And Ergen has in the past managed to wring value out of other "bets."

Until recently, many observers were convinced Dish Network actually intended all along simply to acquire and then sell its spectrum holdings, and really had no intention of getting into the mobile business.