Analysys Mason 2020 Predictions

It is nice to see a set of predictions that are not "blue sky" for a single-year period. 

5G Millimeter Wave Will Drive Changes to Indoor Communications

Any way you look at it, different methods of handling indoor cell phone coverage will have to be created in the 5G era, partly because millimeter wave signals do not penetrate building walls, partly because energy-efficient glass blocks RF signals and partly because even mid-band and low-band signals are attenuated by building walls, hills, trees and other obstacles.

So what emerges might include new organizational or industry roles for indoor mobile communications, as well as more indoor transmission platforms, extending beyond traditional distributed antenna systems and built on indoor small cells.

Less clear are business models which might be built by third parties to supply indoor communications in business settings. Is there a possible new role for third parties that build, operate and maintain indoor 5G networks? How big is that opportunity? What is required and what sorts of firms might be positioned to capture any opportunity?

Organizations and consumers might also create their own infrastructure, businesses perhaps relying on use of private 5G or Wi-Fi, consumers relying mostly on Wi-Fi, but with possible signal boosting techniques becoming more commonplace.

Much depends on how difficult or easy, costly or not, creating indoor 5G coverage eventually becomes, as a practical matter. Roles for third party integrators and infrastructure suppliers increase if indoor 5G remains costly, but diminish to the extent end users can build their own networks affordably.

The best example are local area networks of all types, including Wi-Fi.

Millimeter wave spectrrum is the big change, because millimeter wave spectrum represents the biggest portion of new spectrum assets to be made available for mobile and untethered communications suppliers (licensed and unlicensed) for the foreseeable future, even if spectrum sharing and aggregation become key methods for increasing network capacity.

There simply is not that much available spectrum below 6 GHz that is not already licensed for use, as the National Telecommunications and Information Administration frequency allocation chart shows. 

In this illustration, the width of the bars corresponds to capacity. Note the skinny bars to the left, which are the traditional “mobile” bands. 

The horizontal axis represents the frequency spectrum from approximately 1 to 90 GHz. The orange bars show the approximately 11 gigahertz of new spectrum released by the FCC for both licensed and unlicensed use. Again, the width of the bars represents capacity, so compare the orange blocks with the “current IMT bands” in the one gigaHertz to 3 GHz range. 

source: Anokiwave

The red and green blocks show frequency allocations for the aerospace, defense and satellite communications industries, parts of which might ultimately be available using shared spectrum mechanisms.

As most are becoming aware, frequency and coverage are inversely related. Millimeter wave signals, compared with 4G signals in the mid-band (around 2 GHz), might be as much as 30 times less able to penetrate obstacles such as walls. 

source: SureCall

That makes indoor signal reception a big deal for 5G using millimeter wave spectrum. But indoor signal reception also has been a problem for 4G signals inside buildings. That is going to be true even for 5G signals in low-band and mi-band regions.

SureCall, a supplier of cell phone signal booster technology, has released what it calls the world’s first 5G signal booster, the Force8 for boosting 5G signals inside commercial buildings. 

The Force8 will boost 5G signal strength for T-Mobile users in commercial buildings throughout urban, suburban, and rural areas across North America, while also amplifying 3G and 4G LTE signals for all North American service providers, SureCall says.

The Force8 will amplify mobile signals for T-Mobile US 600 MHz signals and AT&T’s 2.3 GHz frequencies.

CTA Predicts $422 Billion in Consumer Tech Sales in 2020

The U.S. consumer technology industry will record $422 billion in retail revenues in 2020, up about four percent over last year, according to a new Consumer Technology Association forecast.

Spending on software and streaming services (including music, video and video gaming) is projected to reach a new high of $81.2 billion in 2020, representing 11 percent growth year over year.

Video streaming will grow to $24.1 billion in 2020, up 29 percent, while on-demand music services will generate $9 billion in revenue, up 15 percent.

Video gaming software and services category will grow five percent to $38.3 billion in revenue.

Smartphone sales will grow about three percent to  $79 billion in 2020. 5G devices alone will generate $15.3 billion in revenue, an order of magnitude increase over 2019.

Laptop sales will create $33.3 billion in revenue. Television sales will hit $23.4 billion. In 2020, 4K sets will account for $17.6 billion in revenue. 8K TVs will reach $1.6 billion on sales of 504,000 units.

Why Meetings Fail

In a recent McKinsey survey, 61 percent of executives said that at least half the time they spent making decisions, much of it surely spent in meetings, was ineffective. And just 37 percent of respondents said their organizations’ decisions were both high-quality and timely.

Part of the problem is that productive meetings require planning. The other problem is that some meetings should not be held at all. 

source: McKinsey

Some meetings, but not all, have topics or agendas that hint at goals. But less often do organizers clarify whether the meeting is meant to share information, discuss it, or decide something. 

“It may seem rudimentary, but we can all recall meetings (and large-group meetings in particular) where the lines between sharing, discussing, and deciding were blurred or absent—or where the very purpose of the meeting is unclear, as was true of the healthcare company’s growth committee and its ever-expanding list of discussion topics. In such situations, meetings may begin to seem frustrating and even futile,” McKinsey consultants note. 

What Happens if T-Mobile Merger with Sprint Fails?

Some analysts believe the T-Mobile US merger with Sprint will be blocked. Others believe the merger will be approved. But skepticism is higher than might have been expected at this point in the process.  Either way, more shuffling of assets is likely to happen. 

Neither T-Mobile US nor Sprint has the scale to compete long term in a U.S. market that virtually requires contestants owning both fixed and mobile assets.  And though it is possible that a major application provider could emerge as a buyer or investor, the most-likely combinations involve cable companies and any of the smaller or would-be mobile providers.

Altice USA could be interested in merging with either T-Mobile or Sprint, as might Comcast and Charter Communications. Dish has held talks to acquire Sprint and merge with T-Mobile in the past, so that is another possible combination. 

Dish faces a clock that is winding down, and would have to find some way to get its network built before the Federal Communications Commission takes away its mobile spectrum licenses.

Largest Mobile Operator IoT Vertical is Automotive

The 400 largest mobile operator IoT deployments together account for 279 million units, according to Berg Insight, representing perhaps 23 percent of the total number of mobile operator IoT connections worldwide at the end of 2018. 

The 400 projects will add an additional 652 million units by 2023, representing an overall compound annual growth rate of 18.5 percent, according to Berg Insight. 

Fleet management and mobile resource management is the largest vertical in terms of the number of projects, followed by retail applications, aftermarket automotive, utilities and OEM automotive as well as smart homes and buildings. 

OEM automotive is the largest vertical in terms of units, featuring 77 million units, ahead of utilities at about 44 million units and fleet management/MRMrepresenting 40 million units, Berg estimates. 

Smart Street Lights Growing at 35% CAGR

The installed base of smart street lights was 10.4 million worldwide at the end of 2018, according to Berg Insight.

Growing at a compound annual growth rate of 24.5 percent, the installed base will reach 31.2 million in 2023, Berg Insight predicts. Europe now accounts for nearly 40 percent of the installed base. 

North America accounted for around 30 percent of the global installed base in 2018. The Rest of World accounted for 31 percent of the global installed base in 2018, with China representing a significant portion of ROW deployments.

U.K.-based Telensa, plus Signify and Sensus account for a third of the global installed base of individually controlled smart street lights. 

U.S.-based Itron is a leading player in the networking segment, Berg Insight says. 

Other important smart street lighting vendors include China’s Rongwen Energy Technology Group; CIMCON Lighting, Acuity Brands, Current, LED Roadway Lighting and DimOnOff from North America; Lucy Zodion and SSE from the UK; Reverberi Enetec from Italy; Flashnet from Romania and Telematics Wireless from Israel, analysts at Berg Insight say.