Thursday, July 6, 2023

Which New Technologies Drive the Most Potential Value?

One question no consultant ever seems to be asked--and is hard pressed to answer,  is “of the many new technologies we might deploy, which do you think will create the most value for us, comparing all the available tools we might use?” 


For starters, there is no quantitatively proven way to evaluate a large range of important new technologies and predict their ability to drive business outcomes, in a zero-sum manner. 


But in a non-scientific sense, all the hype right now is related to artificial intelligence. So if one were to evaluate potential value by the amount of hype, one might suggest something like this:


Technology

Potential Financial or Strategic Value

Artificial intelligence

40

Generative AI

30

5G

20

Edge computing

15

Network slicing

10

Private networks

5


AI might easily be viewed as widely and immediately applicable for purposes of transformative automating tasks, improving decision-making, and creating new products and services. The business value arguably should show up in lower operating costs and higher revenue, for almost any firm or industry that learns to apply it. 


But most observers likely would agree that most firms can use AI, and apply it fairly quickly.  Only some firms can take advantage of 5G, edge computing, network slicing or private networks, and it will take more time to reap the benefits. 


Nearly any firm can use generative AI to enhance marketing, customer service, technical support or customer-facing communications. Only some firms benefit from factory automation or  smart agriculture. 


On the cost front, AI can be used to automate customer service tasks, identify fraud, and optimize supply chains, reduce the amount of manual labor employees must conduct and speed decision-making by generating inferences about basic business trends. 


In a similar way, Generative AI can be used to create new marketing materials, develop new products, and generate personalized content for customers, as well as improve chat and other forms of customer service. 


5G’s value might be its ability to support remote sensors and appliances and the data those devices can supply for managing business processes, at lower costs than other networks have been able to offer, or with greater security. 


Edge computing’s value might be quality of experience benefits in areas ranging from content delivery to process control. In some cases there might be savings in network connectivity costs. 


Private networks might offer higher security, lower latency and therefore faster response times for time-sensitive use cases. 


Again, that is a look at “hype.” Right now, AI and generative AI are grabbing all the oxygen in the room. Various observers will likely differ on how each of the categories should really be ranked, in terms of potential value creation. Some will argue private networks are more important, 5G overrated, for example. 


But that is beside the point. At the moment, attention is riveted on AI. 


"Who Benefits?" Shapes Work-From-Home Debate

Debates about “work from home” often give the impression that “full time” WFH is rather widespread. In one sense, it is common. Up to 40 percent of the U.S. workforce (employed full-time) works at least part of the time from home, or out of the office. 


But “WFH” does not equate to “works full time from home.” That remains rather rare. When researchers study WFH, they need a functional definition: does it mean “100 percent from home or some percentage from home? As a practical matter, researchers tend to go with a definition that includes in the WFH number employees who, by company policy, can work two to three days from home, the balance in the office or at the job site. 

source: WFH Research 


Ignoring for the moment the issue of whether productivity is higher, the same, or lower, when WFH policies are in place; as well as subjective beliefs about the matter on the part of managers or employees, there are measurable outcomes not related to productivity. 


To the extent that employees require some amount of office space, WFH can reduce firm needs for real estate. WFH can lead to employee benefit and cost savings when WFH enables hiring of workers from anywhere in the world. 


If one believes that happier workers are more productive workers, when WFH, to the extent it leads to “happier” workers, might be valued irrespective of whether such policies can be shown to boost productivity for firms. 


WFH probably often boosts worker productivity, who then will divert extra time to non-firm activities. If one believes knowledge or office work can be measured, it is possible that WFH is more “productive,” in the sense that workers can get their expected workloads accomplished in less time. 


But the firm might not reap the rewards of “extra time,” as workers consume that time for their personal use, rather than using the time to produce more work for their employers. As with so much of life, “who benefits?” is the issue.


Wednesday, July 5, 2023

Startups Grow Organically, Large Firms by Acquisition

Virtually all tier-one telcos and data centers grow more by acquisition than organic growth. That has been the case for many decades, but also from 2000 to 2020, with a few firms as exceptions. 


Company

Acquisition Growth

Organic Growth

AT&T

60%

40%

Verizon

55%

45%

CenturyLink

45%

55%

Equinix

75%

25%

Digital Realty Trust

65%

35%


The same trend holds for other global telcos, which since 2000 and up to 2020 have grown much faster by making acquisitions than by organic growth. 


Company Name

Acquisition Growth (% CAGR)

Organic Growth (% CAGR)

China Mobile

15

2

Deutsche Telekom

12

1

Orange

11

2

Telefonica

10

2

NTT

9

2

SoftBank

8

2

Singtel

7

2

Hutchison Whampoa

6

1

Bharti Airtel

5

2

VimpelCom

5

1

Etisalat

4

2

TeliaSonera

4

1

KDDI

3

1

Telstra

3

1

TDC

2

1

Telenor

2

1


Contrast that split of revenue growth drivers with firms in the less capital intensive software industry. In the first five years, most firms grow organically.


Company Name

Organic Growth (% CAGR) First 5 Years

Acquisition-Fueled Growth (% CAGR) First 5 Years

Dropbox

45

0

Zoom Video Communications

100

0

Slack

75

0

Atlassian

50

0

Stripe

100

0

Twilio

75

0

Shopify

50

0

Square

75

0

Instacart

100

0

Airbnb

75

0

Uber

100

0

Lyft

75

0

Pinterest

50

0

Reddit

75

0

Discord

100

0

ZoomInfo

50

0

Datadog

75

0


Hence the importance of merger and acquisition activity in the data center and connectivity businesses, compared to the software business, especially for startup firms.


Directv-Dish Merger Fails

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