Thursday, May 30, 2024

AI Will Kill Jobs AND Create Jobs, But Will be Neutral for Most Jobs

Many examinations of the impact of artificial intelligence on work functions or industries have focused initially on substitution of AI and machines for lower-skilled work. But that does not mean creative and knowledge work will be unaffected. It simply might take more time for AI to become more skilled, allowing it to displace human work, more effectively. 


On the other hand, in most industries, AI might actually not displace as many jobs as one might believe, as service jobs, for example, often are highly dependent on humans providing the service, and such jobs represent the majority of jobs in the U.S. economy, for example. 


That noted, some job functions are at greater risk of displacement than others. 


High Risk (More Susceptible)

Low Risk (Less Susceptible)

Reasoning

Data Entry & Processing

Creative Fields (e.g., Art, Design, Writing)

Repetitive tasks with clear rules are easily automated.

Manufacturing (Assembly Lines)

Social & Emotional Intelligence Jobs (e.g., Therapy, Teaching, Management)

AI struggles with tasks requiring empathy, judgment, and human connection.

Customer Service (Simple Inquiries)

Healthcare (Diagnosis, Treatment Planning) (to an extent)

AI can handle routine inquiries but struggles with complex situations.

Transportation (Truck Driving) (long-term)

Science & Research

Requires critical thinking, creativity, and problem-solving beyond current AI capabilities.

Telemarketing & Sales (Scripts)

Entrepreneurship & Innovation

AI can personalize some sales tasks, but human interaction is still crucial for complex deals.

Accounting & Bookkeeping (Basic Tasks)

Legal Services (complex tasks)

AI can automate calculations but struggles with legal interpretation and judgment.


But optimists sometimes make robust predictions about job and function displacement. 


“95 percent of what marketers use agencies, strategists, and creative professionals for today will easily, nearly instantly and at almost no cost be handled by the AI, and the AI will likely be able to test the creative against real or synthetic customer focus groups for predicting results and optimizing, Sam Altman, OpenAI CEO has said. 


That might be an outlier, as many industry executives seem to take care to position AI as complementary, not a substitute for human work. Commercial considerations seem to be at play, of course. Executives never say anything that diminishes the market potential of the products they sell. 


Executive

Company

Prediction

Satya Nadella

Microsoft

"AI is not taking away jobs. It's creating new categories of jobs." (2018)

Ginni Rometty

IBM (former CEO)

"AI won't replace us, but it will redefine what it means to be human at work." (2017)

Andrew Ng, Co-founder, Coursera

"AI will create far more jobs than it destroys. The challenge is making sure everyone has the skills to succeed in the new economy." (2018)

Ng acknowledges job transformation but believes in job creation in the AI era.

Rosalind Picard

MIT Media Lab

"The future is about humans and machines working together." (2020)

Eric Schmidt

Former Google CEO

"AI will create more jobs than it destroys." (2016)

Rosalind Picard

MIT Professor, Affective Computing

"The key is to partner with AI, not compete with it." (2020)


To be sure, job gains and losses from substitution caused by the internet and automation are not uniform. In content industries, which were disrupted by the internet, some functions were diminished, but many others grew. Newspaper-related jobs shrunk substantially, but graphic designer jobs increased, as did animator and editor jobs. 


Industry Segment

Job Change (2000-2024)

Newspaper Reporters

-66.7% Decline (BLS data approx.)

Editors

-25.2% Decline (BLS data approx.)

Graphic Designers

+11.0% Growth (BLS data approx.)

Film and Video Editors

+14.0% Growth (BLS data approx.)

Animators and Multimedia Artists

+33.9% Growth (BLS data approx.)

Musicians and Singers

-6.0% Decline (BLS data approx.)

Software Developers

+88.1% Growth (BLS data approx.)


In most industries, employment actually grew between 2000 and 2024, a period when the internet became a platform in many industries. 


Industry Sector (2024)



Estimated Employment (2024 - Millions)


Estimated Employment (2000 - Millions)


Healthcare & Social Assistance

>20

>10

Retail Trade

15-20

18-22

Accommodation & Food Services

13-16

12-15

Professional & Business Services


10-13

15-18

Professional and Business Services Manufacturing

12-15

9-12

Education (Public & Private)

8-11

7-10

Government

7-10

7-10

Transportation & Warehousing

7-10

6-9

Finance & Insurance

6-9

6-9

Construction

6-9

5-8

Leisure & Hospitality


5-8

4-7

Other Services (e.g. Personal Care, Repair)


5-8

4-7


The point is that both skeptics and optimists are likely going to be proven right, in some instances. AI might eliminate jobs in some functions, but not affect trends in other areas. The issue might be how well higher-order functions can be performed by AI, especially in areas not dependent on “service” by human agents. 


Tuesday, May 28, 2024

Can AI Enable Some Business Models that Were Unworkable Before?

It’s probably fair to say that most observers expect artificial intelligence to be embedded into most legacy products and processes over time, with an expectation that successful implementations will produce outcomes such as lower costs; higher profit margins; faster delivery times or higher customer satisfaction. 


But it might also happen that AI is applied in ways that create new opportunities--such as business models that were not possible or sustainable before--as well. For some of us, that is the more-interesting opportunity. 


Consider the way the shift to digital product creation and delivery possible with the internet created the opportunity for big, industry-leading technology firms supported by advertising revenue models. That was pretty much unthinkable prior to the era of digital media and internet distribution. 


So many AI-enabled possibilities might exist in the software business, for example, where previously expensive solutions are cost-reduced or capability-enhanced by AI, making them available to new customers. 


Where only enterprises might have been able to afford such tools, AI might enable small business and medium-sized business access to tools including:

  • AI-powered software that analyzes customer data and automates personalized marketing campaigns with targeted messaging and budget optimization.

  • AI-powered financial planning software that analyzes user spending habits and recommends personalized budgeting and investment strategies.

  • AI-powered tutoring software that personalizes learning plans based on student strengths and weaknesses, offering adaptive instruction at a mid-range price point between basic learning apps and expensive human tutoring.

  • AI-powered software that analyzes medical records and patient data to assist healthcare professionals in diagnosis and treatment planning, potentially making such tools more accessible to smaller clinics and individual practitioners.


Though it might be harder to do so with physical products, the same principle should apply: AI might reduce some barrier to creating products that are more specialized, targeted or positioned someplace between the high-volume, low-cost segment and the low-volume, high-cost market segments in any market. 


Prior to the internet era, at least some entrepreneurs had explored creating ad-supported telecom or content services, for example. 


That was not a huge leap of imagination, given the ad-supported revenue models of broadcast radio and television; smaller newspapers and magazines. So some explored ad-supported phone calls, for example, none successfully. 


Only with the shift to internet-delivered messaging and voice features is it feasible to offer free or ad-supported communications, sometimes with an incremental usage-based fee (for international calls to public switched telephone network devices, for example). 


So for some, the interesting possibility is that some previously-unworkable business models might be possible if AI solves some key business problem: value, price, cost, distribution, support or something else crucial to the business model. 


And that might happen most often for a broad range of products in any industry that are neither the volume nor the value leader; occupying neither the lower-cost, volume position nor the high-cost, lower-volume, premium position. 


It might be conventional wisdom that high-volume, low-price products as well as low-volume, high-price products are “easiest” to create business models around, whereas many products somewhere in the “middle” are more difficult, as selling prices do not provide enough margin for robust customer and product support.


Generally speaking, think of consumer or business subscription products costing $20 to $30 a month, and sold directly using the internet, or high-price enterprise products that are expensive, but also provide enough gross revenue and profit to be sold using a direct sales force.


Then think of all sorts of products that a potential customer has to think about--it is not an impulse buy--and do not represent high sales volumes, and also are priced at levels that require some form of indirect sales channels (channel partners, for example). 


The price-value relationship might be part of the problem. Low-cost products can leverage economies of scale to achieve high sales volume and profitability even with low margins. Think of discount retailers or subscription services with minimal features.


That, in turn, can create profit margin issues. Mid-range products can get squeezed on profit margins, having neither the high markups of luxury goods nor the economies of scale of low-cost products.


Luxury or premium products often can command higher prices due to brand recognition, unique features, or exclusive materials and often can be sold  to a niche market willing to pay more.


Mid-priced products often lack the compelling features of high-end options or the affordability of low-end ones. They can struggle to attract enough customers at a price point that allows for substantial profit margins.


Customers seeking the best value might be drawn to lower-priced options, while those prioritizing premium features might be willing to pay more.


Study Title/Source

Key Findings

Focus on the Value Gap

"Blue Ocean Strategy" by W. Chan Kim & Renée Mauborgne

Emphasizes the importance of creating a new value proposition that avoids direct competition. Stuck-in-the-middle products often compete head-on with established players.

Argues that successful businesses either create low-cost, high-volume products or high-value, premium offerings.

"Winning in the Middle: Avoiding the Commodity Trap" by Michael Porter (Article explores strategies for success in mid-tier markets)

Acknowledges the challenges of mid-tier markets but suggests strategies like differentiation, operational excellence, or niche targeting to succeed.

Offers a more nuanced view, suggesting that success in the middle is possible with careful strategic planning.

"Pricing Strategy: Setting Price to Maximize Profits" by Nirmalya Kumar (Book explores various pricing strategies)

Discusses the importance of understanding customer value perceptions when setting prices. Mid-priced products risk failing to deliver a value proposition strong enough to justify their price.

Emphasizes that price should be aligned with the perceived value customers receive, which can be challenging for mid-tier products.

"Value Proposition Design" by Alexander Osterwalder, Yves Pigneur, & Greg Bernarda

Highlights the importance of a clear value proposition that resonates with the target customer segment.

Implies that mid-priced products might struggle to offer a compelling value proposition that stands out from both high-end and low-end options.


Channel strategy also comes into play. Generally speaking, high-volume, low-price items can be sold directly using the internet or mass market retail. The low-volume, high-price goods are sold using direct sales. The medium-price, medium-volume products use distributors, resellers or agents. 


The issue is whether artificial intelligence can change key costs of manufacturing, distribution, support, sales and marketing enough that formerly-difficult models become more feasible. That will matter for the fortunes of all sorts of legacy or startup firms, allowing marginal business models to become more robust. 


Perhaps some “one-time sale” products can be changed into subscriptions, increasing lifetime customer value. Perhaps channel sales can be converted into direct online sales, boosting profit margins.


Maybe high after-sale support costs can be sliced. The need for channel partners might be reduced or eliminated by AI that simplifies product manufacturing cost, improves “zero touch” performance so support costs are reduced or allows online direct sales. 


Previously Difficult Functions

How AI Could  Lower Costs

Use Case

Personalized Mass Customization

AI can analyze customer data and preferences to design and manufacture products tailored to individual needs, without sacrificing economies of scale.

A clothing company uses AI to personalize fabric choices, cuts, and styles based on customer body scans and preferences.

Predictive Maintenance in Manufacturing

AI can analyze sensor data from machines to predict potential failures, allowing for preventive maintenance and avoiding costly downtime.

A factory uses AI to monitor equipment vibrations and predict bearing wear, enabling proactive maintenance before breakdowns occur.

Automated Customer Support

AI-powered chatbots can handle routine customer inquiries, freeing up human agents for complex issues and reducing support costs.

A bank uses AI chatbots to answer basic banking questions 24/7, reducing the need for human customer service representatives for simple inquiries.

Intelligent Content Delivery Networks (CDNs)

AI can optimize content delivery based on user location, network conditions, and content type, minimizing bandwidth usage and delivery costs.

A streaming service uses AI to personalize content delivery based on viewer location and device capabilities, reducing bandwidth consumption.

AI-powered Training for Employees

AI can tailor training programs to individual employee needs and learning styles, reducing training time and costs.

A software company uses AI to create personalized training modules for new employees based on their skill gaps and learning pace.


Happy Talk about "No Job Losses Because of AI" is Wrong

if automation destroys jobs, then why has the total number of jobs not decreased as we have automated more? The obvious answer is that new jobs in new areas get created as demand for older jobs decreases. 


So some might argue AI will not decrease jobs in many industries. But that might strike you as unrealistic happy talk. Automation and other new technology such as the internet always seems to reduce existing jobs, even as new possibilities are created elsewhere. 


Since 1900, the percentage of people employed in U.S. agriculture has shrunk considerably, from nearly 40 percent to less than two percent today. And though there are other key issues besides the application of new technology, U.S. manufacturing jobs also have declined over time. 


Since the 1950s, the United States, for example, has seen a dramatic decline in manufacturing jobs, dropping from a peak of over 25 percent of total employment to less than 10 percent today (though issues other than applied technology were involved as well). 


Since 1990, the United States has lost over half of its newspaper journalism jobs, with a similar decline in other traditional media sectors, as well. 


Industry

Pre-internet (1990)

Post-internet (2020)

Change

Television

2.0 million (estimated)

1.6 million (Bureau of Labor Statistics)

-20%

Print Journalism

625,000 (American Journalism Review)

338,000 (Pew Research Center)

-46%

Radio

140,000 (Bureau of Labor Statistics)

103,000 (Bureau of Labor Statistics)

-27%


That noted, new jobs are created in new industries as well. Today, more than 80 percent of jobs in the U.S. are in the service sectors. In 1900, service industries only accounted for around 30 percent of total employment. 


As the introduction of other general-purpose technologies such as the steam engine, electricity and computers also led to job displacement, so will AI have a similar impact, reducing demand for existing jobs. 


Industry

Impact of Computers

Estimated Job Change (Pre- vs. Post-Computer Era)

Finance

Automated back-office tasks like recordkeeping and calculations. Enabled online banking and trading, reducing need for tellers and some brokers.

Bank tellers: -25% to -50% but financial analysts +20%

Manufacturing

Automated production lines and quality control processes. Reduced need for assembly line workers and some inspectors.

Production workers: -30% to -50% 

Education

Created online learning platforms and educational software. May impact roles like teacher's aides for repetitive tasks.

Teacher's aides: Potential decrease, but overall teacher demand may remain steady. 

Hospitality

Self-service kiosks for check-in and reservations. Online travel booking platforms reduce reliance on travel agents.

Hotel front desk clerks: -10% to -20%. Travel agents: -40% to -60%

Banking

ATMs replaced tellers for basic transactions. Online banking reduces foot traffic in branches.

Bank tellers: -25% to -50% 


Happy talk about how AI will not lead to job losses in content or media industries, for example, seems completely out of line with past precedents when major new technology is introduced. 


Sure, there are all sorts of reasons why executives in those industries would say such things. But history suggests the predictions are incorrect. AI will lead to job losses in existing areas. 


Just as surely, new jobs will be created elsewhere. But it always is reasonable to assume that those losing existing jobs and those taking newly-created jobs will not typically be the same individuals. 


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