Sunday, March 2, 2025

Will AI Affect Critical Thinking, and if so, When?

Many observers worry that using artificial intelligence routinely will pose a danger of loss of critical thinking  skills. 


It’s an inherently difficult question to answer in part because the definition (questioning assumptions, weighing evidence, synthesizing ideas) involves activities that are hard to measure. And even if we assume some amount of those operations are routine in many job roles, for example, it remains unclear the extent to which such activities are routinely required. 


We might even assume the reverse might be true: a relatively small percentage of time involved in critical thinking (formulating questions, for example) has an outsize impact on outcomes, assuming “most of the time” is required to generate answers and embody them as outputs. 


Then the following question is whether “most to all” of the research is actually “critical thinking” or is something else. 


That might be true for some journalists or writers, where the task of formulating questions, conducting background research or interviews  and constructing a narrative are the most related to critical thinking, where often the actual writing is cognitive, but maybe not so much an example of critical thinking as “something else” (applied communication skills). 


And the difference between “critical thinking” and other forms of cognitive activity can be difficult to evaluate. One almost always finds, when conducting an interview, that potentially unexpected lines of questions develop that are unexpected. The ability to recognize and follow up when that happens is a cognitive matter, but maybe not “critical thinking.” 


In somewhat similar settings, such as education and learning, it is conceivable that students actually use AI to formulate questions, conduct research and then “write” the findings. In such cases, some will argue critical thinking skills are not developed so much. 


Software development, for example, has traditionally involved a mix of high-cognitive and routine tasks, observers might note. 


“Critical thinking” might involve:

  • designing algorithms or system architecture

  • Debugging complex issues (questioning why a system fails under load and synthesizing a fix).

  • Planning and problem-solving (defining requirements or adapting to shifting specs).

  • Code review (weighing evidence of a teammate’s approach).


But there are always other tasks that might not involve so much “critical thinking,” if at all:

  • Writing boilerplate code (setting up APIs or UI components using frameworks).

  • Invoking existing libraries/objects (e.g., calling a pre-built sorting function).

  • Testing and documentation (e.g., running unit tests or updating READMEs).

  • Meetings and administrative work.


Perhaps obviously, senior engineers arguably spend more critical thinking time than do junior engineers. The amount of critical thinking time arguably is higher for new code bases and lower for maintenance of legacy code bases. 


Category

Estimated % of Total Time

Example

Critical Thinking

50-70%

Designing, debugging, reviewing, planning

"Something Else"

30-50%

Boilerplate, meetings, testing, docs


That might be true for lots of job functions, but some functions are generally assumed to involve less critical thinking. 


Work Process

Estimated Critical Thinking %

Description & Reasoning

References

Data Entry

5-10%

Mostly rote, involving inputting data with minimal analysis. Critical thinking arises only in error-checking.

OECD (2023) Automation Report - routine task intensity high, low cognitive demand.

Customer Service (Basic)

10-20%

Scripted responses dominate, but resolving unique complaints requires some problem-solving.

World Economic Forum (2023) - analytical thinking less critical in routine service roles.

Software Development

60-80%

Involves designing algorithms, debugging, and innovating solutions—high reliance on reasoning and synthesis.

Halpern & Dunn (2023) - critical thinking transferable in tech tasks; WEF (2023) on tech skills.

Assembly Line Work

5-15%

Highly repetitive; critical thinking limited to spotting defects or adjusting to minor disruptions.

OECD (2023) - high automation risk, low skill complexity.

Management (Middle)

50-70%

Decision-making, resource allocation, and conflict resolution demand significant judgment and analysis.

WEF (2023) - leadership and social influence tied to critical thinking rise by 22% since 2023.

Research & Development

80-90%

Core to the process: hypothesis testing, evaluating evidence, and creating new knowledge.

Dwyer (2017) - critical thinking central to uncued problem-solving in R&D contexts.

Retail Sales

20-30%

Mostly transactional, but upselling or handling objections involves persuasion and quick thinking.

SHL (2023) - 70% of employers value critical thinking, less emphasized in routine sales.

Teaching (K-12)

40-60%

Lesson planning and adapting to student needs require synthesis and reflection, though some tasks are rote.

Golden (2023) - critical thinking key in higher ed teaching, adaptable to K-12 contexts.

Medical Diagnosis

70-90%

Heavy reliance on interpreting symptoms, weighing evidence, and deciding treatments—AI assists, not replaces.

Halpern & Dunn (2023) - AI aids but human judgment critical in radiology and diagnostics.

Content Creation

50-70%

Generating ideas and refining them involves creativity and evaluation, though execution can be procedural.

WEF (2023) - creative thinking (linked to critical thinking) up 17% in importance since 2023.

Perhaps the implication is that use of AI might not actually pose a danger to critical thinking (or cognitive abilities) in all work processes and roles, to the same extent. But even in roles believed to rely heavily on critical thinking (depending on how one defines the term), it is possible that though some cognitive ability is required, critical thinking is not . 


Cognitive capabilities cover a broad spectrum, including memory, attention, pattern recognition, spatial reasoning and language processing, for example. 


.Critical thinking (questioning assumptions, weighing evidence, synthesizing ideas), is just one skill. Many jobs lean on other cognitive skills that are essential but don’t demand the reflective, analytical depth of critical thinking.


Cognitive skills (processing and acting on information) are not all examples of critical thinking. Rote recall, quick decision-making under pressure, or motor-cognitive coordination might be more important or common


Remembering procedures or facts is cognitive but not inherently critical. It’s about retrieval, not evaluation. Staying alert to detail or multitasking is mentally taxing but doesn’t always involve weighing evidence.


Spotting trends or anomalies relies on perception and intuition more than synthesis. And following a set process uses problem-solving but rarely questions the process itself.


Job Role

Cognitive Capability

Why Not Critical Thinking?

Air Traffic Controller

Spatial reasoning, split-second decision-making

Decisions follow strict protocols; little room to question assumptions or innovate mid-task—focus is on speed and accuracy.

Retail Cashier

Attention to detail, working memory

Structured process (scanning, cash handling) doesn’t require weighing evidence or synthesis—mostly rote execution.

Surgeon (Routine)

Hand-eye coordination, procedural memory

Standard procedures rely on practiced steps, not reevaluating methods—critical thinking only in rare complications.

Warehouse Picker

Spatial navigation, pattern recognition

System dictates paths and tasks; no need to challenge or synthesize—focus is on following pre-set efficiency rules.

Call Center Agent (Scripted)

Language processing, emotional regulation

Scripts limit improvisation; basic calls don’t involve deep analysis or questioning—escalation is the exception.


The point is that human freedom and choices might have more to do with retention, improvement or decay of “critical thinking skills.” Not all cognitive processes involve critical thinking, so automating many of those functions does not involve any necessary and direct impact on critical thinking skills. 


And even when AI is used to assist with a critical thinking task, human agency matters. Some people will think more than others, perhaps because some people are more intellectually curious than others, for example. 


AI impact on critical thinking or cognition in general is uncertain at this point, and may well only uncover pre-existing proclivities. Intellectual curiosity is not likely evenly distributed among all AI users.


Saturday, March 1, 2025

Data Center Energy Requirements: Nobody Really Knows Yet How Much They Must Change

Virtually all observers believe that electricity consumption by data centers is going to increase. But observers disagree about how much increase will happen, and where. Even estimates from the same entity can vary.


One report by the Electric Power Research Institute (EPRI) predicts data center electricity demand could grow by as little as 29 percent or as much as 166 percent from 2023 levels by 2030.


source: Frontier Group 


So far as I am able to determine, nobody believes the challenge is insurmouintable, though lots of observers will disagree about precisely how to meet the new demand (renewable versus other sources; local versus remote generation). 


Study

Date

Publisher

Key Estimates

2024 United States Data Center Energy Usage Report

2024

Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory (LBNL)

Data center load growth has tripled over the past decade. Projected to double or triple by 2028. Data centers consumed about 4.4% of total U.S. electricity in 2023. Expected to consume approximately 6.7 to 12% of total U.S. electricity by 2028.

S&P Global Ratings Report on Data Center Energy Demand

2024

S&P Global

Incremental U.S. power demand from data centers could be 150-250 terawatt hours (TWh) between 2024 and 2030. This looming demand will require about 50 gigawatts (GW) of new generation capacity through 2030. Estimates incremental investment in generation and transmission at $60 billion and $15 billion respectively.

AI, Data Centers, and the Coming US Power Demand Surge

April 2024

Goldman Sachs

Estimates an additional 47 GW of power generation capacity needed to support U.S. data center power demand growth by 2030.

How Data Centers Are Shaping the Future of Energy Consumption

June 2024

Jefferies

Projects a 2.2-fold increase in power generation and transmission investments, reaching $280 billion by 2030, to meet data center energy demands.

Data Centers: Rapid Growth Will Test U.S. Tech Sector's Decarbonization Ambitions

November 2024

S&P Global

Predicts data center emissions could nearly double by 2030 due to reliance on gas-fired power generation to meet growing energy demands.

What the Data Centre and AI Boom Could Mean for the Energy Sector

October 2024

International Energy Agency (IEA)

Notes that annual investment in U.S. data center construction has doubled over the past two years, with tech giants' capital investments totaling around 0.5% of U.S. GDP.

AI is Poised to Drive 160% Increase in Data Center Power Demand

May 2024

Goldman Sachs

Estimates that data center power demand will grow by 160% by 2030, with current consumption at 1-2% of global power.


Some have estimated capital investment ranging from $75 billion--$60 billion in generation and $15 billion in transmission infrastructure by 2030 to meet the additional demand. As always, “who pays?” will be debated, but ultimately, many stakeholders--investors, utilities themselves, data center end users and consumers will share the burden of higher generation and transmission investments. 


Study

Date

Publisher

Key Estimates

Data Centers: Surging Demand Will Benefit And Test The U.S. Power Sector

October 2024

S&P Global Ratings

Estimates that meeting the incremental power demand from data centers will require about $60 billion in new generation capacity and $15 billion in transmission infrastructure by 2030. S&P Global

Returning to Growth: US Power Demand Forecast Highlights Impact of Data Centers, EVs, and Solar

July 2024

Enverus

Projects that data center load growth will add 153 GW of capacity by 2050

AI, Data Centers, and the Coming US Power Demand Surge

April 2024

Goldman Sachs

Forecasts that U.S. data centers will consume 8% of U.S. power by 2030, up from 3% in 2022

EIA Projections Indicate Global Energy Consumption Increases

September 2023

U.S. Energy Information Administration

Projects that primary energy consumption will increase by 16% to 57% by 2050 compared with 2022, with data centers being a significant contributor to this growth.


The challenges will arguably be greater in some areas, such as Virginia, where so much of the global and U.S. data center operations occur. 


source: Sherwood

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