Saturday, June 29, 2024

"Free Speech" Protections Now Rely on Voluntary Private Actor Content Curation

Traditional protection of citizen "free speech" rights has aimed squarely at preventing government suppression. In the internet era, that might not be the biggest issue. Instead, it is suppression or curation by private entities that have a right to do so, which is different from saying they should do so.


In fact, many government actions seem quite trivial compared to the content moderation practiced by private gatekeepers.


The Federal Communications Commission wants U.S. telcos to block delivery of messages that use artificial intelligence to create fake political messages. Irrespective of the merits of that position, it does once again show how technology is making a shambles of the traditional regulatory models used to govern political discourse (supposedly protected “free speech”) in traditional print media; similarly protected content transmitted over telephone and data communications networks; slightly more regulated “broadcast TV” speech and unregulated internet media. 


Perhaps oddly, the FCC position shows an encroaching amount of content regulation over an industry and business that traditionally has been required to allow freedom of speech. The original intent of common carrier regulation, after all, has been to enable universal access with no restrictions on “what can be said” over a communications network. 


Generally speaking, content restrictions have been forbidden on communications networks; data networks (including internet media) and print media. There have been some restrictions or rules on broadcast TV and radio. 


But some creeping content regulation seems to be increasing. Despite what we might think about AI-generated content that could be considered “fake,” rules forbidding it are content regulations, no different in kind from rules mandating childrens’ programming, “public interest” programming, “obscene content” or “harassing” phone calls. 


The Communications Act of 1934 established the FCC to regulate both common carriers (like telephone companies) and content carriers (like broadcast media). However, technological advancements have blurred the lines between these categories, making consistent regulation challenging.


Traditionally, common carriers like telephone companies were expected to be neutral conduits of information, not regulators of content. However, the FCC has been given broad power to regulate broadcast media, creating a tension between these two approaches.


The FCC's content regulation, particularly regarding indecency, has raised significant First Amendment concerns. This creates tension with the principle of common carriers as neutral platforms for speech. The same might be said of bans on AI-generated content, as much as we might tend to agree that “fake content” is a problem. 


The ongoing debates over net neutrality and the regulation of social media platforms further highlight the changing context of content freedom and regulation. 


We might not, in the past, have seen communications networks as platforms supporting “freedom of speech” in the same vein as newspapers and magazines. But the whole concept of “common carriage” supports content freedom: networks cannot bar speech or the expression of ideas. 


Oddly enough, since “freedom of speech” principles only prohibit government entities (notably the federal government) from restricting free speech, more issues are arising from private entity restrictions on free speech (social media, search and other content moderation and curation policies that suppress some views and promote others). 


One might argue that the crucial freedom of speech issues now reside in the private sector, not government. Content curation by private firms seemingly has emerged as a much-bigger challenge to free expression of political ideas than government restrictions. 


As an adage suggests, “freedom of speech exists for those who own printing presses.” In other words, even if individuals have the right to their views, gatekeepers that can amplify ideas also exist, and did so in the pre-internet eras as well. 


These platforms employ content moderation policies and algorithmic curation that determine what content is amplified, suppressed, or removed entirely. This role is analogous to editorial decisions made by traditional media gatekeepers, but on a much larger scale and often with less transparency. 


The point is that protecting “freedom of speech” traditionally has meant restricting the power of governments to censor speech. In the internet era, most of the major issues happen with private actors against which citizens have no actual legal protections. 


As in earlier eras, it is the willingness of content curators to operate in a fair and unbiased manner makes the difference. There is a difference between the ethos of “presenting both sides” of an issue (actually there typically are many sides) and the different methods of “being transparent, rather than presenting a balanced view.”


Thursday, June 27, 2024

How Much Will ACP Demise Affect Home Broadband?

It is not unusual to see estimates of U.S. households that will “lose their home broadband service” because a particular subsidy program is out of funding at about six million homes, or roughly 25 percent of households that had used the ACP subsidy, as estimated by researchers at Maravedis, for example. 


According to the Federal Communications Commission, some 21 million ACP accounts were in service in December 2023. 


The issue then is how many of those households will find some other way to obtain home broadband, as was the case before the Affordable Connectivity Program was funded. In other words, users of ACP subsidies often had already been buying home broadband service, or had chosen to use their smartphones, before the ACP was available. 


So the end of the ACP subsidy does not automatically mean all or most of those who used the program will simply stop buying home broadband services. By way of reference, it has been estimated that “low-income households” with less than $30,000 a year in income had home broadband buy rates in the 70-percent range before the ACP was funded. 


source: Pew Research


Also, according to Pew Research estimates, about 15 percent of U.S. adults say they rely on their smartphones to access the internet, though such practices are about 27 percent of adults with incomes less than $30,000 annually  and about 19 percent of adults with incomes less than $50,000 but at least $30,000 annually. 


 

source: Pew Research


By implication, perhaps 46 percent of U.S. adults with incomes less than $50,000 annually rely on their smartphones for internet access instead of buying home broadband. 


Keep in mind, though, that home broadband is purchased “by the household” while “smartphone internet access” is purchased by the person. 


So 86 percent of U.S. adults with incomes of $30,000 or less are estimated to use internet access services by some means, while 91 percent of U.S. adults with incomes of $30,000 to $50,000 have internet access. 


In total, between 93 percent and 95 percent of U.S. homes purchase home broadband services, according to Pew Research estimates.  


If one assumes that it was primarily the adults with annual incomes of less than $30,000 annually that were the bulk of the ACP subsidy recipients, and if ACP accounts numbered about 23 million households, with an average household density of about 2.5 persons, that suggests as many as 57.5 million U.S. adults might have been using the ACP (some of the household members were younger than 18). 


The Federal Communications Commission survey of ACP recipients in December 2023 said ACP recipients numbered 21 million. The FCC survey found that mobile-only service was used by 25 percent of survey respondents; 30 percent had both mobile and home broadband access and 23 percent already had home broadband service. About 22 percent reported they had no internet access prior to the ACP. 


The FCC survey also found that 11 percent of the “had no internet access service” respondents also said they had no need to access the internet. And more than 80 percent of those reporting no pre-ACP internet access said they used access services in some other way (library, school, business or friend’s account). 


Using the FCC’s 21 million ACP account figure, and subtracting the 11 percent of respondents who said they had no need to use the internet, perhaps 2.5 million of the ACP accounts were homes that wanted to use the internet and did not have a home broadband service prior to the ACP.


On the other hand, more than 50 percent of respondents who already had mobile internet access before the ACP was available said they used the subsidy to reduce the cost of mobile service they already had, and did not add a home broadband service. But a significant percentage (about 38 percent) said they did add home broadband using the ACP benefit. 


About 84 percent to 85 percent of respondents who already had some form of internet access used the ACP to reduce the cost of their existing plans. 


None of that is to minimize the remaining portion of the U.S. adult population that does not buy internet access or home broadband. But consumer choices also play a role. 


The whole point of public, school and business access is to allow people to use the internet without buying a personal subscription. Some consumers make rational choices not to purchase home broadband, instead using their mobile connections or free access of some sort.


Not every statistical artifact is the result of invidious action or circumstances.


Employee Fear of AI Job Losses is Rational

Employee fear about job displacement from all new information technology and now artificial intelligence is not entirely unwarranted. Virtually every new information technology has had some impact on automation, and therefore on jobs. 


Recent estimates of the impact of information technology (mostly without AI impact) suggest both job losses and gains, as has been the pattern for most IT and new technology over time. 


Study or Source

Job Loss

Job Creation 

Time frame

McKinsey Global Institute (2017)

Up to 800 million

Up to 950 million

Over the next two decades

World Economic Forum (2020)

Up to 1.5 billion

Up to 2.2 billion

By 2030

PWC (2017)

Up to 38% of jobs at risk

New jobs will emerge, but retraining may be needed



The issue is typically that the people losing jobs are different from the people gaining jobs. 


It might be quite reasonable to suggest that artificial intelligence will be more important for firms in some industries than others. Perhaps the only question is how important AI will be for “most industries.” 


AI's role arguably will be more important  in industries heavily reliant on data analysis, personalization, and automation, such as finance, healthcare, manufacturing, transportation (autonomous vehicles) or retail. In other industries, the impact might be more subtle.


Industry

Possible Importance of AI

Drivers of Value

Finance

High

AI can analyze financial data for fraud detection, risk assessment, personalized investment recommendations, and algorithmic trading.

Healthcare

High

AI can be used for medical imaging analysis, drug discovery, personalized treatment plans, and robot-assisted surgery.

Retail

High

AI can personalize product recommendations, optimize inventory management, automate customer service, and predict demand trends.

Manufacturing

High

AI can optimize production processes, improve quality control through machine vision, and enable predictive maintenance.

Transportation

High

AI is crucial for self-driving cars, traffic management optimization, and logistics planning.

Customer Service

Medium

AI chatbots can handle basic inquiries, automate tasks, and personalize customer support experiences.

Education

Medium

AI can personalize learning experiences, provide automated grading and feedback, and power intelligent tutoring systems.

Media & Entertainment

Medium

AI can personalize content recommendations, automate content creation (e.g., music generation), and power advanced special effects in movies and video games.

Legal Services

Medium

AI can analyze legal documents, predict case outcomes, and assist in legal research.

Agriculture

Medium

AI can optimize crop yields, monitor for plant diseases, and automate tasks like harvesting.

Construction

Low

AI can be used for building design optimization, construction site safety monitoring, and automating some construction tasks with robots.

Government

Low

AI can be used for fraud detection in social programs, improve public safety through video surveillance analysis, and personalize citizen services.

Hospitality

Low

AI chatbots can answer basic guest inquiries and automate tasks like booking reservations.


Also, AI arguably will be more important for some job functions than others. AI might excel where task repetitiveness and predictability are high, and there the impact will be automation. But AI effectiveness also requires large amounts of labeled data. 


Tasks that generate or involve standardized data--or labor-intensive or time-intensive iterations--are more susceptible to AI disruption. In the pharmaceutical industry, AI can evaluate many new and different combinations of molecules than humans can, faster. That should enable faster discovery of new therapies.  


On the other hand, tasks requiring creativity, empathy, complex decision-making, or social skills are currently less vulnerable to AI. So lots of jobs will eventually see a range of impact: more impact on routine elements of any job function; less impact on functions requiring complex decision making, social skills and non-routine innovation. 


Job Function

Potential Impact of AI

Impact

Data Entry Clerk

High

Repetitive task of entering data can be automated by AI.

Assembly Line Worker

High

Many manufacturing tasks can be performed by robots guided by AI.

Telemarketer

High

AI-powered chatbots can handle basic sales calls.

Loan Processor

High

AI can analyze loan applications and make approval decisions.

Truck Driver (Long-Haul)

High

Self-driving trucks pose a long-term threat to long-haul trucking jobs.

Paralegal

Medium

AI can assist with legal research and document review.

Bus Driver (Inner City)

Medium

Self-driving technology might take over simpler routes in the future.

Cashier

Medium

Self-checkout systems with AI are becoming increasingly common.

Customer Service Representative (Basic Inquiries)

Medium

AI chatbots can handle many basic customer inquiries.

Insurance Adjuster (Simple Claims)

Medium

AI can analyze data and automate decisions for simple claims.

Surgeon

Low

AI can assist surgeons, but complex decision-making and surgical dexterity remain human tasks.

Teacher

Low

AI can personalize learning, but human interaction and guidance are crucial in education.

Therapist

Low

AI cannot replace human empathy and emotional intelligence needed in therapy.

Software Developer

Low

AI can automate some coding tasks, but creativity and problem-solving remain essential for developers.

Marketing Manager

Low

AI can assist with data analysis and targeting, but human creativity is vital for successful marketing campaigns.


Most Consumers Want "Good Enough" Home Broadband

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