How Soon Could Huge New Generative AI Industries Emerge?

How soon will generative artificial intelligence produce some obvious huge new behaviors, firms, apps, use cases, business models and industries, as happened with the internet?

Consumer products generally reach an adoption inflection point at about 10-percent consumer adoption. So if consumer AI use cases follow precedent, mass market success will happen when any single use case or app hits about 10-percent usage. 

Generative AI usage likely will reach 10 percent in 2024 in many markets, suggesting a rapid uptake period will commence. 

But use of generative AI, quite often as a feature of an existing experience, is a possibly-different matter from creation of wholly-new use cases, value propositions and industries, as happened with the growth of internet use. 

And it will still take some time for such new use cases, apps, value propositions and industries to emerge. 

Some leading internet apps--including Google search; Facebook social media; Amazon e-commerce and Google Maps for navigation--took between three and eight years to reach 10-percent usage levels. 

Keep in mind those innovations represented new behaviors, value and business models for new firms in new industries, as opposed to use of the internet by legacy firms and processes. 

It took longer--almost twice as long--for each of these apps to reach adoption by half of people. The point is that even if generative artificial intelligence is highly successful at creating new behaviors, use cases, apps and firms, it will take up to a decade and a half for that success to be quite obvious, as defined by usage. And it probably goes without saying that this is true only for the most-popular, most commercially-successful new use cases, apps and firms. Most implementations will prove to be insignificant or actually fail to achieve success.

So it might be rational and realistic to assume huge new industries will emerge only after some time. Even if GenAI propagates faster than did the leading new search, social media and e-commerce apps did in the earlier internet era. 

And it is always possible that development times wind up being slower or equal to that of the new internet use cases (search, social media and e-commerce). 

In other words, any huge new AI-based behaviors, apps, use cases and business models and industry categories might still take some years to emerge clearly. Right now, most AI use cases are as enhancements to existing products and services.

That’s useful and helpful, but probably not disruptive. And with AI, we really will be looking for huge disruptive impact, as is the case for other general-purpose technologies.

Nobody Knows if "Return to Office" Boosts Productivity

As a test, this content as a podcast here

It is virtually impossible to test human-driven processes in the same way a scientist might test hypotheses, despite our use of the term social “science,” but none of that inability to truly test cause and effect relationships alleviates the need to make decisions in a void. 

Consider the current debate over “return to office” policies, often touted because “in office” work builds company culture. Ignore for the moment our inability to measure “company culture.” Ignore the possible impact on productivity of office or knowledge workers (since we cannot really measure that, either. 

Researchers do not agree on whether the thesis that “in office” work creates or sustains company culture, even if it might affect other elements of “culture” such as collaboration, job satisfaction, innovation or employee assessment, training and advancement. 

Study Title	Date	Publisher	Key Conclusions
The Surprising Truth About InPerson Work	2024	Robin Powered	Inperson work boosts collaboration, job satisfaction, and innovation. Physical proximity increases knowledge sharing and motivation.
'Office culture' as we know it is dead. Workers have other ideas	2024	BBC	Employees are less interested in pre-pandemic office perks and culture. They prioritize flexibility, equitable pay, and being seen as whole humans.
Why a full return to office is gaining ground	2024	HRD Connect	In-office work enhances company culture through informal interactions and facilitates mentorship. However, employee preferences for flexibility must be considered.
Working in the office 5 days a week to build company culture is a myth	2024	Fortune	Hybrid workers report higher levels of satisfaction, engagement, and feelings of belonging compared to full time in-office workers. Forced return to office can negatively impact culture.
Workforce Radar Report	2024	PwC	Hybrid workers demonstrate the highest levels of satisfaction and engagement. The idea that fulltime in-office work is necessary for strong culture is a myth.
"The Impact of Physical Workspaces on Organizational Culture"	2023	Harvard Business Review	In-office work fosters a stronger sense of community, improves collaboration, and enhances knowledge sharing among employees.
"The Role of InPerson Interactions in Building Company Culture"	2022	Stanford Graduate School of Business	Face-to-face interactions are crucial for building trust, fostering a sense of belonging, and creating a shared company identity.
"The Negative Effects of Remote Work on Company Culture"	2021	MIT Sloan Management Review	Remote work can lead to decreased employee engagement, reduced informal communication, and a weaker sense of organizational connection.
"The Benefits of Hybrid Work Arrangements for Company Culture"	2020	McKinsey & Company	A hybrid work model can balance the advantages of in-office work with the flexibility of remote work, promoting a positive company culture.
"The Impact of Office Design on Employee Productivity and Wellbeing"	2019	Cornell University	A well-designed office environment can enhance employee satisfaction, productivity, and overall well being, contributing to a positive company culture.

Without much doubt, most employees prefer remote work when it is available. What is less clear is whether “return to office” mandates enable firms to function at a higher level of output or quality (assuming the work is amenable to remote venues and assuming you believe you can measure such effects. 

In some cases, studies suggest in-person work does improve productivity, to the extent that collaboration or knowledge sharing matters, and assuming such outcomes differ from remote instances in a material way. 

In other cases, outcomes likely hinge on the actual job functions. Writers, code developers, artists, marketing or advertising functions and many sales functions traditionally have used lots of remote workers, as the work is suited to remote basing. 

Study Title	Date	Publisher	Key Conclusions
The Science behind InPerson Productivity at the Office	2024	Robin Powered	Physical proximity boosts collaboration and knowledge sharing. Employees within 25 feet of high-performing colleagues saw a 15% productivity improvement.
Study finds hybrid work benefits companies and employees	2024	Stanford University	Hybrid work (2 days remote had no negative effect on productivity or career advancement. It reduced employee turnover by 33%.
Americans are embracing flexible work—and they want more of it	2024	McKinsey & Company	Well-organized hybrid work can improve productivity by up to 5%. 83% of employees cite increased efficiency as a primary benefit of remote work.
Study finds workers say they need to be in an office to be productive	2024	Scripps News	Workers report needing to be in the office for twothirds of the workweek to be productive. Top reasons include better focus and accessing technology.
The Surprising Truth About InPerson Work	2024	Robin Powered	In-person collaboration improves task completion by 50% compared to solo work. Face-to-face interactions are more impactful than virtual ones.

Perhaps the actual impact on productivity is not really the issue. If managers believe they are better off with employees in the office (for whatever reasons, that might be all that matters. Irrespective of the matter of productivity, which cannot be measured anyhow, if managers believe they benefit from “in office” work modes, that is likely to happen. 

Still, some jobs traditionally have been highly amenable to remote work. 

Job	Reasons for Remote Work Suitability
Software Developer	Work primarily involves coding and digital tools  Collaboration possible through version control systems  Can easily share and review code remotely
Graphic Designer	Digital design tools accessible from anywhere  Can share and collaborate on designs online  Client meetings can be conducted virtually
Writer/Editor	Writing and editing can be done independently  Digital collaboration tools for feedback and revisions  Research can be conducted online
Data Analyst	Data analysis software accessible remotely  Can access databases and datasets from anywhere  Results easily shareable through cloud platforms
Customer Service Representative	Phone and chat support can be done from home  Customer management systems accessible remotely  Call routing technology allows for distributed teams
Digital Marketer	Online marketing tools and platforms accessible anywhere  Analytics and reporting can be done remotely  Virtual collaboration for campaign planning
Translator	Translation work can be done independently  Digital resources and translation tools available online  Can communicate with clients virtually
Accountant	Accounting software accessible from anywhere  Digital document sharing for financial records  Virtual meetings for client consultations
Project Manager	Project management tools allow for remote team coordination  Virtual meetings for team updates and planning  Can track progress and deadlines online
Online Teacher/Tutor	Virtual classrooms and learning management systems  Can conduct lessons via video conferencing  Digital resources for curriculum and assignments
Remote Sales	Outside sales staff often are based wherever key clients are Inside sales can be based anywhere

According to one 2022 survey (which might still show the impact of Covid work-from-home policies, many industries were seeing high growth of remote work. 

Finance and Insurance   2,062%

Legal and Accounting   1,995%

Retail   1,651%

Aerospace   1,341%

Media   1,280%

Real Estate, Construction   1,150%

Information Technology     1,132%

Education, Govt., Non-profit     1,097%

Consumer Technology             1,028%

Consumer Goods   1,651%

Hospitals,Medical Centers       1,028%

Healthcare       859%

Telecommunications     1,020%

Energy and Utilities                      897%

Technical Services                      878%

Enterprise Technology                 701%

Manufacturing       869%

Food and Beverage         719%

Hospitality and Recreation           644%

Transportation         634%

Business Services         550%

Staffing         475%

Pharmaceuticals         248%

source: The Muse, Ladders 

And though large enterprises are shifting back to “in office” work, remote work job openings might still be increasing in 2024, compared to 2023. The number of “remote” job postings peaked in 2022, as Covid pandemic restrictions prohibited much in-office work.  

source: Bloomberry

All that noted, remote work is both an employee preference issue and a management comfort issue, at least for jobs that can plausibly be done on a remote basis.