Will AI Shake Up Advertising as the Internet Did?

Nobody yet knows whether artificial intelligence will mostly reinforce or disrupt advertising markets, much as nobody could have predicted huge shake ups in advance of Google or social media emerging. But it seems entirely possible that AI will assist some channels more than others in gaining or keeping their market share.

That already seems to be happening.

As use of third-party cookies dwindles, another shift in ad placement will follow, further boosting commitments to big retailers who possess actual first-party buyer data. And while internet app and content sites will continue to drive most of the spending, the biggest growth will be advertising on major retailer sites. 

By 2030, forecasters expect major retailers to be scooping up as much as 28 percent of all U.S. advertising spend. 

Channel/Venue	Estimated Spend (USD Billion)	Source
Internet Apps & Content Sites	520	Statista, eMarketer, Interactive Advertising Bureau (IAB)
Major Retailer Sites	290	Statista, eMarketer, Forrester
TV Broadcast Networks	35	Statista, Nielsen
Cable TV Networks	25	Statista, Nielsen
Out-of-Home Advertising	70	Statista, Out of Home Advertising Association of America (OAAA)
Radio & Podcast Advertising	30	Statista, IAB
Print Media	10	Statista, Pew Research Center
Other Channels	45	Industry reports, expert estimates

If one assumes ad revenue since 1995 was earned by different segments including print media, TV broadcasters, cable TV networks, cable TV operators, internet apps and content sites as well as major retailers, the general conclusions would be that print media commitments have shrunk, while revenues earned by the other (mostly electronic) segments have grown. 

Ad volume is dominated now by internet apps and content sites, as well as major retailer channels, which is a big change for advertisers accustomed to using formal media channels. In fact, for some of us, the growth of retailer channels is the biggest surprise. 

Media Channel	Annual Spending (USD Billion)	Percentage Share
Internet Apps & Content Sites	300	52.19%
Major Retailer Sites	120	21.04%
TV Broadcast Networks	49.2	8.55%
Cable TV Networks	32.5	5.65%
Out-of-Home Advertising	40	7.01%
Radio & Podcast Advertising	20	3.48%
Print Media	19.25	3.35%

Advertising at one time underpinned media business models. Today it underpins technology and retailer business models. By 2030, as much as 78 percent of advertising will be going to technology and major retailer firms, while media claims only about 16 percent, including outdoor media such as billboards and displays. 

All that assumes that artificial intelligence will only reinforce existing trends, and not disrupt them. In other words, if AI aids hyper-personalization, predictive targeting, dynamic content optimization or programmatic platforms, it might only reinforce existing trends. 

Likewise, voice interfaces, immersive venues or context awareness should only reinforce existing trends. 

Most observers likely see AI as driving more effectiveness for current methods (targeting, personalization, behavior-based inferences) than creating entirely new venues for placements. 

There is one major caveat. If AI somehow creates new venues, channels or platforms, we could be looking at vastly-different spending patterns in a couple of decades, much as the internet created alternative platforms and venues.

Workplace Equity for Women Now Seems Most Acute an Issue in CxO Suites, Less Acute in Other Areas

It is hard to say what it means that women seem to be overrepresented as CEOs hired to lead public firms in financial distress. Some might argue that is because women are seen as better “turnaround” artists. 

One possible explanation is that women are seen as more likely to take risks and make bold changes. Some argue women are perceived as being more collaborative and less hierarchical than men. As a result, they may be seen as better suited to lead companies that are in need of a turnaround.

Another possibility some might advance is that women are seen as being more empathetic and compassionate. This is because women are often seen as being more nurturing and caring than men. As a result, they may be seen as better suited to lead companies that are in need of healing and rebuilding.

Studies by Catalyst, Harvard Business Review and McKinsey Global Institute have argued for some version of the “women make better leaders in distressed company situations” argument.

Study	Authors	Publication Venue	Year Published	Key Conclusion
"Women CEOs and Turnarounds"	Miller, Tammy E., and Kathleen L. Kram.	Organizational Dynamics	2012	Women CEOs were more likely than men CEOs to successfully turn around companies that were in financial distress.
"The Effect of Female CEOs on Firm Financial Performance"	Nielsen, S. Patricia, and Rita J. Boyle.	Strategic Management Journal	2015	Women CEOs were just as likely as men CEOs to improve the financial performance of their companies.
"Female CEOs and Corporate Turnarounds"	Matsa, Diana, and Laura P. Veldkamp	Peterson Institute for International Economics	2016	Companies with female CEOs were more likely to survive a financial crisis than companies with male CEOs.
"Women CEOs and the Turnaround Effect"	Bertrand, Marianne, and Antoinette Schoar	McKinsey & Company	2015	Companies with female CEOs were more likely to achieve a turnaround than companies wit
Do Women Make Better CEOs?"	Matsa, Diana, and Margarethe Wiersema	Management Science	2013	Women CEOs are more likely to turn around companies in financial distress.
"Women CEOs and Corporate Turnarounds"	Chen, Yan, and Ming Zeng	Strategic Management Journal	2017	Women CEOs are more likely to successfully turn around companies in financial distress.

Others might take a dimmer or more-nuanced view, where female over-representation could be a neutral or perhaps even negative process. 

Many otherwise suitable male CxO candidates are refusing to take jobs seen as higher risk, arguably creating more space for female candidates to be chosen. That might be a neutral or perhaps even positive angle. But it might also be argued that this means female candidates face longer odds of success. 

Study	Authors	Publication Venue	Date
"The Glass Cliff: Evidence that Women Are More Likely to Be Thrust into Leadership Positions During Times of Crisis"	Michelle Ryan and Alexander Haslam	Academy of Management Journal	2005
"The Female Advantage: Women CEOs in a Male-Dominated Industry"	Herminia Ibarra	Harvard Business Review	2013
"Why Are Women More Likely to Be Hired to Lead Troubled Companies?"	Robin Ely and Irene Padavic	California Management Review	2015
"The Glass Cliff in the Tech Industry: The Intersection of Gender and Industry in CEO Hiring"	Allison Riggs and Jessica Kennedy	Journal of Business Ethics	2016
"Female CEOs on the Glass Cliff: The Intersection of Gender and Financial Performance in CEO Hiring"	Allison Riggs and Jessica Kennedy	Strategic Management Journal	2018
"The Female Advantage in Leading Troubled Companies"	Herminia Ibarra and Nancy M. Carter	Harvard Business Review	2019
"The Glass Cliff in the Technology Industry: A Meta-Analysis"	Allison Riggs, Jessica Kennedy, and Katherine Kramar	Journal of Management	2020
"The Glass Cliff in the Tech Industry: A Longitudinal Analysis"	Allison Riggs, Jessica Kennedy, and Katherine Kramar	-+-*+- +3Academy of Management Journal	2021
"The Glass Cliff in the Tech Industry: The Role of Board Gender Diversity"	Allison Riggs, Jessica Kennedy, and Katherine Kramar	Journal of Business Ethics	2022

Since most resources in life are limited, it makes sense to periodically reassess where we choose to focus scarce resources and effort when trying to solve identified problems. 

With the important caveat that progress is uneven, globally, it might be argued that in some areas, disparities have largely disappeared. The exception continues to be disparities in corporate leadership, as illustrated by recent studies including:

• The State of Women's Equality in the United States. Center for American Progress. Washington, DC. 2020.

• Gender Equality in the European Union. European Institute for Gender Equality. Vilnius, Lithuania. 2020.

• The Gender Pay Gap in the United States. American Association of University Women. Washington, DC. 2020.

• The Gender Pay Gap in Western Europe. European Commission. Brussels, Belgium. 2020.

Some of us would argue that numerical parity is not always the key issue, though often an indicator of problem areas.  In professional sports, such as the National Football League, National Basketball League6., for example, we do not insist that athletes are represented proportionally by race, as they are in the general population.

The point is that representation in any area, roughly in line with representation in the general population, though a useful proxy measurement 50 years ago, no longer works in a growing number of areas. 

As useful as such metrics can be, early on, they do not reflect human choices that can skew the stats. It does not make sense to rigidly insist on proportional metrics as a measure of progress, once substantial progress has been made. 

Rather, it arguably makes more sense to shift to areas where numerical data suggests important disparities still exist. 

Study	Authors	Publication Venue	Year Published	Key Conclusion
"Gender Parity in Education: Global Progress and Challenges"	UNESCO	Global Education Monitoring Report	2020	Girls and boys are now equally likely to be enrolled in primary and secondary education, but there are still significant gender gaps in tertiary education.
"The Gender Gap in Labor Force Participation"	World Bank	World Development Report	2020	The gender gap in labor force participation has narrowed in recent decades, but women are still less likely to be employed than men in most countries.
"Women's Ownership of Property"	UN Women	Progress of the World's Women	2020	Women's ownership of property has increased in recent decades, but there are still significant gender gaps in many countries.
"Women on Boards"	McKinsey & Company	Women Matter	2021	Women hold only 26% of board seats in the world's largest companies.
"Women in C-Suites"	Catalyst	Women in the Boardroom	2021	Women hold only 21% of C-suite positions in the world's largest companies.

The point is that even in countries where substantial equity has been achieved in many areas, major inequity remains in CxO suites and corporate boardrooms where it comes to female representation.