India Eliminates Fixed LIne Termination Rates, Cuts Mobile Termination 30%

Indian regulator TRAI has eliminated fixed line termination rates and cut mobile termination charges by around 30 percent. Notably, the reason for the fixed line termination charges for landline calls is that the fixed line voice business is in decline.

TRAI hopes the end of the 0.20 rupee ($0.003) termination rate for both landline-to-landline and landline-to-mobile calls will stimulate usage and subscriptions, and also lead to more investment in fixed networks.

TRAI also expects to reduce mobile network interconnection charges from 0.20 rupees to 0.14 rupees. That move is intended to stimulate mobile calling.

Those changes in the Indian market are not unusual. U.S. fixed network voice lines have been dropping since 2000. Globally, fixed voice lines have been dropping since about 2006.

Comcast's Next High-Growth Rate Business Will be Mobile

One way of illustrating the potential value of Comcast’s entry into the mobile business can be gleaned from looking at current revenue contributors, with their growth rates.

Of total 2014 Comcast revenue of $68.8 billion, $44.1 billion, or 64 percent, was generated by the cable communications business. Operating cash flow contribution from the cable communications segment was about six percent.

About 37 percent of revenue was generated by the NBCUniversal segment, which grew about 7.5 percent, overall. Operating cash flow from NBCUniversal was about 18 percent.

The main point is that gross revenue and operating cash flow from cable communications is tough, from a growth standpoint.

The consumer part of the cable communications business (triple play services) is growing primarily because of high speed access.

Video revenue for 2014 was up about one percent. Voice revenue was static at about 0.4 percent growth. High speed access was where the gains primarily were made, with growth of 9.5 percent.

Business services contribute about nine percent of cable communications segment volume, at about $4 billion in 2014. But business services grew at a 22 percent rate in 2014. In fact, it might be correct to say the newest product segments in the cable communications segment (business services in general, and mid-market services in particular) have the highest growth rates.

Comcast estimates it has reached about 25 percent penetration of the small business addressable market, but only about five percent of the addressable mid-market opportunity, according to Neil Smit Comcast Cable president and CEO.

So mid-market revenue “is growing at a increasing rate relative to SMB,” said Smit.

In 2013, Comcast “had literally zero penetration in the mid sized sector,” said Michael Angelakis, Comcast vice chairman and CFO.

The point is that Comcast has seen the fastest growth rates for successive new products.

That suggests the possible upside from Comcast adding a whole new product line in mobile services, especially if Comcast can position the service first as a way for Comcast customers to view their content, but then secondarily as a way to use voice, messaging and mobile Internet access.

Commenting on capital investments Comcast has made in Wi-Fi infrastructure, the emphasis has been on support for the video business.

“The real goal has been that our customers can access their video any time anywhere whether in the home or outside the home,” said Michael Angelakis, Comcast vice chairman and CFO. “If Wi-Fi can also develop into a different type of service then that’s an added benefit to the Wi-Fi investment.”

But Comcast’s Wi-Fi network now includes 8.3 million hotspots, said Brian Roberts, Comcast Chairman and CEO. “We think we are working on how we monetize that asset and bring it to market.”

“As you know we have MVNO relationships with Sprint and Verizon,” Roberts said, hinting at ways mobile service could be offered, but with much traffic offloaded to the Comcast fixed Wi-Fi network.

Adding mobile service would not only allow Comcast to offer a full quadruple play, but also would add a brand new product line with proven customer demand, but allow use of the new Wi-Fi hotspot network to lower costs.

80% of Smartphone Data Consumption Globally Now Uses Wi-Fi

Globally, Wi-Fi accounted for 80 percent of mobile and tablet data consumption, compared to data consumed on the mobile networks, at 20 percent, according to a new Mobidia report.

That explains the wide gap between reported “mobile data consumption” and actual end user data consumption on their smartphones.

Globally, smartphone and tablet users used in excess of 10 GB of data in December 2014, according to Ovum, up from about seven gigabytes in January 2014. That represents a 51 percent growth rate.

Apple iOS tablet users consumed about 12 GB, while Android tablet users consumed about nine gigabytes in December 2014, Ovum says.

Apple  iOS smartphone users consumed an average of about 11 GB of data in December 2014, just ahead of Android smartphone users with 10 GB. Consumers on Long Term Evolutin networks consumed even more data.

By December 2014, 4G Android smartphone users consumed 13 GB each month, dramatically higher than the 5GB/user/month of 3G Android smartphone users that month.

“Wi-Fi has cemented its position as the dominant wireless access technology, with cellular playing a vital yet supporting role, Mobidia says, based on the results of a study conducted for Mobidia by Ovum.

“Wireless Internet access” is much more than “mobile access,” it is fair enough to note. Fixed wireless, satellite access and untethered access (Wi-Fi) are widely-used forms of Internet access beyond that used by mobile devices, connected to the mobile network.

It might also be fair to say that untethered access--which has been seen as a competitor to mobile access--might actually be emerging in precisely that way. “Cable operators, Internet giants, Wi-Fi-first startups and every cafe with a wireless router are all providers of wireless service,” Devicescape argues.

So a “wave of disruption” is coming, Devicescape argues.

Though it is reasonable to point out that Devicescape builds a business on the strength of Wi-Fi, especially the ability to create unified services out of a patchwork quilt of independent Wi-Fi hotspots, the notion that mobile service providers “must” or “should” incorporate Wi-Fi access into the overall fabric of connectivity choices is reasonable enough.

That, in fact, is assumed to be a key feature of future fifth generation mobile networks, and for simple reasons. Generally speaking, mobile network connectivity is best outdoors, less effective indoors, while Wi-Fi arguably operates best indoors, least effectively outdoors.

So mobile service providers must become “connectivity providers” using any available network resource, not “mobile access” providers, one might argue.

In part because as much as 70 percent of smartphone data is accessed using a Wi-Fi connection, mobile service providers must embrace connectivity by any available means, Devicescape argues.  

Devicescape calls that shift a move from “mobile” to “connectivity,” as users do not so much care about whether their access is provided by the mobile or the Wi-Fi networks. They only want to remain connected, at the best price, one might well argue.

That noted, Devicescape argues that 29 percent of mobile users never connect to their home Wi-Fi, while 53 percent keep Wi-Fi turned off when out and about. As a result, as much as 91 percent of public hotspot locations go unused.

Mobile Drives 72% of Webpage Views in India

Mobile continues to drive Internet access subscriptions globally, accounting for 72 percent of all India webpage views in 2014, for example. 

Globally, mobile devices account for about 80 percent of all traffic, such as sessions, many would argue. 

But overall data volume still is driven by fixed devices. How much longer that might be the case is an issue. Experts still disagree about how to measure the relative weight of mobile and fixed access, in part because usage varies so much by region and country. 

Digital, Social & Mobile in 2015 from We Are Social Singapore

Was 2014 an Aberration, or the New Normal?

Was 2014 an aberration in the U.S. mobile business, or a harbinger? The answer matters.

From 2010 to 2013, U.S. mobile data pricing (per unit sold) declined by only single digits year over year. In the first nine months of 2014, data pricing dropped by 77 percent, according to industry analyst Chetan Sharma.

The other key inputs to the business model shows escalating numbers as well. Average (mean) mobile data consumption increased to about 2 Gb a month. Sharma notes it took 20 years for consumption to reach 1 Gb per month usage levels.

The increase to 2 Gb took about a year.

In addition to plunging prices (less revenue per unit sold) and higher usage (more network cost), marketing costs have grown as competition has become more intense.

Overall U.S. operating expense rose 20 percent, year over year. Income was flat while earnings grew three percent.

Among the positives, total revenue grew 21 percent to almost $400 billion.

Among the negatives, voice revenue declined 15 percent, messaging by 16 percent and tablet subscriptions by four percent.

So was 2014 an aberration? In some ways, it has to be. Can mobile data pricing (per unit sold) continue to drop at breath-taking rates? Some might note the other key figure is the amount of incremental new buying that happens as per-unit rates drop.

Sharma argues that Internet access will not grow fast enough to offset voice revenue losses. Neither will device sales revenue or wholesale revenues grow fast enough, even in conjunction with mobile data revenue growth, grow enough to offset sharp declines in voice. That, in a nutshell, is the strategic challenge mobile operators face.  

Us wireless market_q4_2014_update_feb_2015_chetan_sharma_consulting from Chetan Sharma

Google Wallet to be Pre-Installed on AT&T, T-Mobile US, Verizon Android Devices

Google now is working with Softcard, the mobile payments service owned by AT&T Mobility, T-Mobile US and Verizon Wireless. As part of a new agreement between the mobile carriers and Google, the Google Wallet app, including the tap and pay functionality, will come pre-installed on Android phones (running KitKat or higher) sold by these carriers in the U.S. market  later in 2015.

As part of the deal, Google also is acquiring “some technology and intellectual property” from Softcard.

Google does not appear to have bought Softcard, nor do the mobile carriers appear to have sold the business to Google.

On the other hand, since October 2014, when Apple launched Apple Pay, both Google Wallet and Softcard, which have failed to get much traction, seem to have concluded they need to move faster to counter Apple Pay.

Cable TV Firms Will Not be Able to Replace Lost Linear Video Revenues with High Speed Access Gains

For the past decade, U.S. telco and cable TV revenue sources have been a game of musical chairs: give up the chair you have and hope you can grab another when the music stops.

And everybody is playing. Telcos have relied on mobile services to replace lost fixed network voice revenues.

Cable TV companies have grown by adding voice, high speed access and business segment customers.

Mobile companies have grown by adding tablet accounts on top of phone accounts, while adding Internet access revenues to displace dwindling voice and text messaging revenues.

But it can be a difficult game if the new revenue sources are smaller than the lost revenue sources, or if profit margins are significantly less robust. And that might be a growing issue.

“Gross margin dollars will be lost in video, and will not be replaced by faster growth in broadband,” said Craig Moffett, Moffett Nathanson analyst.

That might be why firms such as Comcast and Cablevision Systems Corp. are planning--or have launched--mobile services. The best way to add incremental revenue is to add one more new service to the bundle.

Comcast and Cablevision are using, or are expected to use, their own public Wi-Fi hotspots as the foundation of their mobile services.